NOC Bigvivor Mafia Game Thread Day 5

[realiti]

because if i were mafia why would i ever do that

 

[realiti]

and I don't understand what is the importance of claiming so early. you get a free town pass, in exchange everyone can basically call you town for free and not have to develop a read on you. i'd rather wait and see how different ppl approach my slot and then reveal.

 

[RyoDio]

what do you mean "it worked"?

why did you claim to have targeted texas on n2 when tribes split even though thats not what you did???

I mean I wasn’t told “no result”

And my mistake ig with n-whatever’s

I very vividly typed out the actions I took and the order they were in

 

[RyoDio]

Hmph ok

I mean, there's the other roleblocker. It's nerfed, but is def a town role.

All I'm thinking now is the far-out that Ryo is role wiper and gets the roles of the people he wiped. N2 wipe target never claimed; I thought it was Ayia, but it could have been Haruno.

Still don't think that explains my action not going through, after all Psypsypsypsypsythe you were unable to target the same person twice right? (I.E. to block a self-targeting ability), but seeing a disruptive role made me remember that N2 wipe was still an open thread.

That would imply I wiped HH, Apricity and Haruno before killing them, which on top of being impossible (I think) doesn’t make sense with Psy’s wipe claim.

 

[UncleSam]

There's no shot Ryo isn't town here imo

- friendly hydra

 

[UncleSam]

Realiti who do you think is mafia? I want a full reads list from you now that almost everyone has claimed.

- friendly hydra

 

[RyoDio]

Alright I have kind of read up on things.

I've considered back and forth on whether I want to claim and I've decided on how I want to play this.

My role PM, re-written in my own words to avoid modkill and with selected information redacted:


It was I who inherited the vig ability from dave after the vote yesterday.

N4 kill list options I was presented with were:


(side note: I don't get the N5 kill list until the day ends, which is really weird - I don't see how the day would impact it outside of us voting somebody out who is on the list)

For reference, my prior suggestions were (in order): Realiti, Shadowpea, Caffine, idle (it turns out that I can in fact suggest and use Execute, but I didn't realize this until it was too late). I'm a bit confused on how neither realiti nor shadowpea ended up on my list - CaffeineBoost, did you remove either / both of them from the list? It is also possible my action just failed since apparently we never get any results to that effect in this game.

In other words, I was given the option to kill one of Clouds, Dyo, or Whydon. I am a strong believer that a town that is idling its' vigilante is a passive town that is going to lose, so I took the shot on Dyo. If I'm being honest even knowing how it flipped I'd still probably take that shot again because Dyo was massive misvote bait. Also I didn't really think any kill would go through due to Celevers' role claim anyway.

So anyway, my apologies to Dyo for the misfire. I really did think you were mafia.

I have put some thought into how I want to play this role-wise and I think that the play here is for Texas Cloverleaf to bus driver between me and some random so that I can not die and not get blocked tonight. I will then probably delegate the execute power to someone I towncore, though I may take a shot at Whydon as well. Either way, I probably wouldn't claim if there wasn't a fairly surefire way for us to make sure the shot goes through. This also means CaffeineBoost should BG someone other than myself (preferably Texas tbh, but feel free to make your own decisions).

Alright, now that that is out of the way, it's time to do some analysis of the game state.

Current Playerlist

CaffeineBoost
Celever
Da Letter El
Drookez
Nuxl
Psypsypsypsypsythe
Realiti
Ryo
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Texas Cloverleaf
UncleSam + Yeti (Hydra, they will be treated as one player)
Vizh
Whydon

So 14 alive, of which only 4 were in Group A during N2. My guess is that there are 5 mafia remaining, plus or minus 1 depending on role strength.

My takes on players as of now is basically this:
Town core: Caffeine (Doctor), Psypsypsy (wiped early on + super towny / if this slot is scum I'm ok losing to it), Texas (Haruno Twin / confirmed by Ryo), Ryodio (I'm just gonna towncore him at this point we need to start making better / more certain sorts, though admittedly this is the last of what I'd consider the 'town core')

I wanna start with a towncore because it helps sort the playerlist well. Removing the above, it leaves only Celever, DLE, and Drookez as the killer (and likely strongman) in Group A. Celever's role seems pretty believable to me but has been idled / has zero proof this entire game, and Caffeine has made some good points about him that have called it into question in my mind. DLE is neighborizer which is a role that could go either way, if I'm being honest I kind of think this is DLE's scum game but idk, he just hasn't played much. Drookez is sus AF and I think is just mafia here (note how mad he was about being called 3p specifically), his role is just way too strong given the other claims we have seen and this is the slot I think is most likely to be mafia in Group A.

It looks to me like Celever v Nuxl contains exactly one scum UNLESS there is a scum roleblocker out there. Actually the more I think about this the more I start to tinfoil that this may be yet another TvT scrum while the mafia just sit back and let things play out, the fact they both claimed their roles so early / confidently is a point in both their favors. Either way, I consider this at best a 50/50 between them (that I'd lean towards town!Cel though Caff has moved me a lot towards Nuxl's side of the needle in the last few pages + Celevers' analysis has gotten increasingly sketchy).

One last point on the group splits: Cel really suggested that Ayia was modkilled but wiped N2...I think it is infinitely more likely that scum idled it N2 (maybe to claim they were wiped later if pressed?) specifically because there are more scum in group B and therefore vanillizing people there would narrow things down too much. Psy was vanillized already on N1, right? So that would mean there might not have been a ton of options with Group B that weren't mafia.

So, let's move on to the important part: Group B.

The remaining group B players are:
Nuxl
Psypsypsypsypsythe
Realiti
Ryo
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Texas Cloverleaf
UncleSam + Yeti (Hydra, they will be treated as one player)
Vizh
Whydon

So 10 players. I consider myself, Texas, Psy, and Ryo towncore, so that leaves 6. I've spoken on Nuxl - I thought this slot was 80% mafia at the start of the day (the other 20% being Celever), but I'm more at like 40% Nuxl scum / 30% cel scum / 30% this is TvT now.

This means that, given I think there is likely only one scum in Group A, there are at least 3 mafia in the remaining 5, and there may well be 4 or even 5. For reference, the remaining five in Group B are:
Realiti
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Vizh
Whydon

This is where our focus should be today. There's no world where I think we are going to get better than imo a 60% (and potentially 80% or 100%) shot at anybody in Group A.

For starters, I want the above to claim their roles and night actions / results, if they have any. I think we should then move from there. I would note that Whydon I can technically kill tonight so might not be a great vote option today, all else equal.

Note that this is not a post intended to let DLE / Drookez / Cel / Nuxl off the hook. I still think we should discuss those slots because there is guaranteed at least one scum in there as well. But I think that the above list of five is a better place to look for today.

This post took way too long to write so I'm probably going to go play games and not reply to anything for a while. I want to see reactions and I want to see claims from the above list of five before making any more moves. Nobody should be voting for anybody today until we come to a consensus vote. It is likely that two or three villagers voting for the wrong person could be quickhammered by a coordinated mafia.

- Friendly Hydra

This is the BEST post I have ever read

Unvote

 

[RyoDio]

there was no reason to claim, my role was redirector, n1 dle -> clouds, n2 vizh -> ryo, I kinda wanted to see what vizh would claim first but I guess it doesn't really matter

Wait what does redirector do, just put actions meant for someone on someone else?

 

[Celever]

gonna catch up now outside

Spiderz hi fren I have a suspicion you've been buddying me this game but you're also a cool guy so maybe not :]

 

[realiti]

Wait what does redirector do, just put actions meant for someone on someone else?

yeah, i select two targets, target A actions go on target B

 

[realiti]

Town
CaffeineBoost - doc
Drookez - ability motivator + empowerer (I don’t think this is overpowered)
Psy - wiped n1 + tone
Ryo - wiped n3
Shadowpea - lovers role

The whole Nuxl/Celever interaction is weird af, there are so many things that make it hard to figure out

• I don’t understand why Nuxl would jail Dyo and then Clouds
• I don’t understand how Celever lived the night
• Celever’s claim is impossible to verify

The solution that requires the least thinking is that Nuxl lied about targeting Clouds and targeted Celever, but if mafia killed Clouds and Celever is town then they literally just saved Celever for zero reason. There’s also the fact that even though Celever has looked better on day 5, the day has been mostly mechanical solving and I still maintain that his d3-d4 was not a good look, although I would much prefer voting based on mechanics than my gut at this point based on how the game has been going. I think just because of PoE this is prob TvS.

3-4 mafia in:
Da Letter El
Spiderz
Texas Cloverleaf
UncleSam/Yeti
Vizh

I’d probably townread whydon because of tone + I’m confident that his attempts at voting within his block of four stems mostly being annoyed at town fucking around instead of a manipulative attempt to control the vote as mafia + day 4 EoD behavior.

Based on PoE the scum is in here, dle is prob just mafia but it’s bugging me that he is willing to vote celever (who I tunneled on) and spiderz (likely mafia according to PoE).

For Vizh: I kinda did not read his posts for the first 200 pages due to volume, I don’t really care for this slot and I could see him being mafia but have no case against him (because I skimmed over everything). If someone could also tell me what Suggest (#) means? not knowing the power level makes it hard to figure out if vizh has full claimed or is hiding things

More thoughts in the post below

 

[CaffeineBoost]

Town
CaffeineBoost - doc
Drookez - ability motivator + empowerer (I don’t think this is overpowered)
Psy - wiped n1 + tone
Ryo - wiped n3
Shadowpea - lovers role

The whole Nuxl/Celever interaction is weird af, there are so many things that make it hard to figure out

• I don’t understand why Nuxl would jail Dyo and then Clouds
• I don’t understand how Celever lived the night
• Celever’s claim is impossible to verify

The solution that requires the least thinking is that Nuxl lied about targeting Clouds and targeted Celever, but if mafia killed Clouds and Celever is town then they literally just saved Celever for zero reason. There’s also the fact that even though Celever has looked better on day 5, the day has been mostly mechanical solving and I still maintain that his d3-d4 was not a good look, although I would much prefer voting based on mechanics than my gut at this point based on how the game has been going. I think just because of PoE this is prob TvS.

3-4 mafia in:
Da Letter El
Spiderz
Texas Cloverleaf
UncleSam/Yeti
Vizh

I’d probably townread whydon because of tone + I’m confident that his attempts at voting within his block of four stems mostly being annoyed at town fucking around instead of a manipulative attempt to control the vote as mafia + day 4 EoD behavior.

Based on PoE the scum is in here, dle is prob just mafia but it’s bugging me that he is willing to vote celever (who I tunneled on) and spiderz (likely mafia according to PoE).

For Vizh: I kinda did not read his posts for the first 200 pages due to volume, I don’t really care for this slot and I could see him being mafia but have no case against him (because I skimmed over everything). If someone could also tell me what Suggest (#) means? not knowing the power level makes it hard to figure out if vizh has full claimed or is hiding things

More thoughts in the post below

Idk exactly what to make of the Nuxl and Celever interactions, I think there's even a possibility that it's S/S.

I want to break down that 3-4 mafia group a bit, since we know that there has to be 1 scum in Celever/DLE/Drookez we can fairly safely assume we can narrow it down to Celever/DLE due to Drookez's N2 action.
We also know one of these has to be true:

1. Celever is actually roleblocker
2. DLE is actually roleblocker
3. Celever is actually strongman
4. DLE is actually strongman (unlikely imo)
5. Celever is actually rolestopper
6. DLE is actually rolestopper (also unlikely)

unless Drookez's JOAT role allows him to use several things in one night.

Idk what to make of group B atm, will have a look.

 

[realiti]

if we judge by nk's and roles i would think that texas could be scum because why else would you kill haruno on n2 (he wants to activate his redirecting role) + 2 redirectors on town is weird design, I don't have a strong opinion on his posts though, I feel like sam has been weird about mechanics wrt Drookez specifically (+ dyo) but im gonna be honest i was just tunneling celever so i didn't rly form many opinions on sam LOL. I will say I would vote texas before sam because sam and texas aren't partners due to sam's push on the texas/celever interactions n2.

i mostly just want to figure out who the role wiper is based on claims + power level of them, i think this doesn't take much effort + pretty effective way of increasing odds of voting mafia depending on the pool of ppl

 

[realiti]

Idk exactly what to make of the Nuxl and Celever interactions, I think there's even a possibility that it's S/S.

I want to break down that 3-4 mafia group a bit, since we know that there has to be 1 scum in Celever/DLE/Drookez we can fairly safely assume we can narrow it down to Celever/DLE due to Drookez's N2 action.
We also know one of these has to be true:

1. Celever is actually roleblocker
2. DLE is actually roleblocker
3. Celever is actually strongman
4. DLE is actually strongman (unlikely imo)
5. Celever is actually rolestopper
6. DLE is actually rolestopper (also unlikely)

unless Drookez's JOAT role allows him to use several things in one night.

Idk what to make of group B atm, will have a look.

idts, i think the wagon on nuxl d4 was pretty legit for a moment

 

[realiti]

elaborating on drookez being town, i probably mentioned this before but if mafia has an ability empower and role wipe i think that is just really bad game design and unfun and i don't think tommy would put that in the game

 

[realiti]

*ability motivate

 

[CaffeineBoost]

Separatist:
Nuxl
Psypsypsypsypsythe
Realiti
Ryo
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Texas Cloverleaf
UncleSam
Vizh
Whydon

Everyone in here is still alive. Given that there's likely only 1 or 2 scum in group A, it's safe to assume that at least 3 of these players are scum. 5/24 scum seems like the lowest it would be, 6/24 the highest (going by 3n+1:n ratio rules which I remember from a while back)

Nuxl's slot is being called into question a lot given what happened on N4. Idk what to make of it right now but it

 

[CaffeineBoost]

HOW DO I EVEN MANAGE TO MISCLICK THAT

THAT IS... IMPRESSIVE

 

[CaffeineBoost]

Everyone in here is still alive. Given that there's likely only 1 or 2 scum in group A, it's safe to assume that at least 3 of these players are scum. 5/24 scum seems like the lowest it would be, 6/24 the highest (going by 3n+1:n ratio rules which I remember from a while back)

Nuxl's slot is being called into question a lot given what happened on N4. Idk what to make of it right now but it

Ignore this post. A more complete version of this post will come up.

 

[Celever]

My ADHD is playing up I literally cannot read this thread rn

realiti CaffeineBoost please give me a recap from like, the last time I posted that wasn't today

 

[Da Letter El]

Idk exactly what to make of the Nuxl and Celever interactions, I think there's even a possibility that it's S/S.

I want to break down that 3-4 mafia group a bit, since we know that there has to be 1 scum in Celever/DLE/Drookez we can fairly safely assume we can narrow it down to Celever/DLE due to Drookez's N2 action.
We also know one of these has to be true:

1. Celever is actually roleblocker
2. DLE is actually roleblocker
3. Celever is actually strongman
4. DLE is actually strongman (unlikely imo)
5. Celever is actually rolestopper
6. DLE is actually rolestopper (also unlikely)

unless Drookez's JOAT role allows him to use several things in one night.

Idk what to make of group B atm, will have a look.

if i were roleblocker, then clouds wouldnt have been able to put haruno on the list n1, but his action was successful

unfortunately i don't know if clouds posted that he did this publicly in thread or just told this to me privately

 

[Celever]

I don’t buy that he used all his abilities and don’t know why he would lie to clouds saying he was not using any of them

P obviously bc if Clouds is scum he tells a scum roleblocker not to target me bc I'm idling

Everyone does that in that situation that's not a scummy move at all lol

 

[Celever]

Also has Celever been able to verify this?

I didn't receive a message that night, but all my roles are self-targets so I suppose Tommy thought it was irrelevant

 

[Da Letter El]

if i were roleblocker, then clouds wouldnt have been able to put haruno on the list n1, but his action was successful

unfortunately i don't know if clouds posted that he did this publicly in thread or just told this to me privately

i realize now that the other world is that realiti/me are s/s

 

[Celever]

DLE's action was not blocked. He could interact with Clouds, this much has been proven by myself knowing that Celever considered idling N4 and Celever himself confirming it.

I didn't consider idling I used all my actions like 20 mins after deadline

I told Clouds I was idling after I subbed to use all my actions lol