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anyway id really like to just vote off someone who is confidently certainly scum so we can not lose the game lol. for example, im nervous to vote for celever or nuxl because this jailkeep lie feels like complete hearsay from two people who many other players have had srs of. unless something definitive comes forward or one of them has established credibility, im not confident in either of them being the vote.
id also like to find out why SO MANY PEOPLE died last night. idk how mafia nights usually go but 0-1 kills every night followed by a jump to 3 is certainly a strange thing to happen it feels like
anyway id really like to just vote off someone who is confidently certainly scum so we can not lose the game lol. for example, im nervous to vote for celever or nuxl because this jailkeep lie feels like complete hearsay from two people who many other players have had srs of. unless something definitive comes forward or one of them has established credibility, im not confident in either of them being the vote.
id also like to find out why SO MANY PEOPLE died last night. idk how mafia nights usually go but 0-1 kills every night followed by a jump to 3 is certainly a strange thing to happen it feels like
I've considered back and forth on whether I want to claim and I've decided on how I want to play this.
My role PM, re-written in my own words to avoid modkill and with selected information redacted:
Role PM said:
Role name Janzen, 13th Place
Something about being split from my friends who were on the separatists and things would've gone better if I'd had longer with my new group
An ability called 'leak the VC' that I am going to keep redacted for now because I don't have any guilties and I'd rather keep more info from the mafia if it won't help town to reveal it / if revealing it won't clear me in any way
Suggest (3): same wording as in Hydrogen's PM
you are town, you win if threats to town are eliminated
(side note: I don't get the N5 kill list until the day ends, which is really weird - I don't see how the day would impact it outside of us voting somebody out who is on the list)
For reference, my prior suggestions were (in order): Realiti, Shadowpea, Caffine, idle (it turns out that I can in fact suggest and use Execute, but I didn't realize this until it was too late). I'm a bit confused on how neither realiti nor shadowpea ended up on my list - CaffeineBoost, did you remove either / both of them from the list? It is also possible my action just failed since apparently we never get any results to that effect in this game.
In other words, I was given the option to kill one of Clouds, Dyo, or Whydon. I am a strong believer that a town that is idling its' vigilante is a passive town that is going to lose, so I took the shot on Dyo. If I'm being honest even knowing how it flipped I'd still probably take that shot again because Dyo was massive misvote bait. Also I didn't really think any kill would go through due to Celevers' role claim anyway.
So anyway, my apologies to Dyo for the misfire. I really did think you were mafia.
I have put some thought into how I want to play this role-wise and I think that the play here is for Texas Cloverleaf to bus driver between me and some random so that I can not die and not get blocked tonight. I will then probably delegate the execute power to someone I towncore, though I may take a shot at Whydon as well. Either way, I probably wouldn't claim if there wasn't a fairly surefire way for us to make sure the shot goes through. This also means CaffeineBoost should BG someone other than myself (preferably Texas tbh, but feel free to make your own decisions).
Alright, now that that is out of the way, it's time to do some analysis of the game state.
CaffeineBoost
Celever
Da Letter El
Drookez
Nuxl
Psypsypsypsypsythe
Realiti
Ryo
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Texas Cloverleaf
UncleSam + Yeti (Hydra, they will be treated as one player)
Vizh
Whydon
So 14 alive, of which only 4 were in Group A during N2. My guess is that there are 5 mafia remaining, plus or minus 1 depending on role strength.
My takes on players as of now is basically this:
Town core: Caffeine (Doctor), Psypsypsy (wiped early on + super towny / if this slot is scum I'm ok losing to it), Texas (Haruno Twin / confirmed by Ryo), Ryodio (I'm just gonna towncore him at this point we need to start making better / more certain sorts, though admittedly this is the last of what I'd consider the 'town core')
I wanna start with a towncore because it helps sort the playerlist well. Removing the above, it leaves only Celever, DLE, and Drookez as the killer (and likely strongman) in Group A. Celever's role seems pretty believable to me but has been idled / has zero proof this entire game, and Caffeine has made some good points about him that have called it into question in my mind. DLE is neighborizer which is a role that could go either way, if I'm being honest I kind of think this is DLE's scum game but idk, he just hasn't played much. Drookez is sus AF and I think is just mafia here (note how mad he was about being called 3p specifically), his role is just way too strong given the other claims we have seen and this is the slot I think is most likely to be mafia in Group A.
It looks to me like Celever v Nuxl contains exactly one scum UNLESS there is a scum roleblocker out there. Actually the more I think about this the more I start to tinfoil that this may be yet another TvT scrum while the mafia just sit back and let things play out, the fact they both claimed their roles so early / confidently is a point in both their favors. Either way, I consider this at best a 50/50 between them (that I'd lean towards town!Cel though Caff has moved me a lot towards Nuxl's side of the needle in the last few pages + Celevers' analysis has gotten increasingly sketchy).
One last point on the group splits: Cel really suggested that Ayia was modkilled but wiped N2...I think it is infinitely more likely that scum idled it N2 (maybe to claim they were wiped later if pressed?) specifically because there are more scum in group B and therefore vanillizing people there would narrow things down too much. Psy was vanillized already on N1, right? So that would mean there might not have been a ton of options with Group B that weren't mafia.
So, let's move on to the important part: Group B.
The remaining group B players are:
Nuxl
Psypsypsypsypsythe
Realiti
Ryo
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Texas Cloverleaf
UncleSam + Yeti (Hydra, they will be treated as one player)
Vizh
Whydon
So 10 players. I consider myself, Texas, Psy, and Ryo towncore, so that leaves 6. I've spoken on Nuxl - I thought this slot was 80% mafia at the start of the day (the other 20% being Celever), but I'm more at like 40% Nuxl scum / 30% cel scum / 30% this is TvT now.
This means that, given I think there is likely only one scum in Group A, there are at least 3 mafia in the remaining 5, and there may well be 4 or even 5. For reference, the remaining five in Group B are:
Realiti
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Vizh
Whydon
This is where our focus should be today. There's no world where I think we are going to get better than imo a 60% (and potentially 80% or 100%) shot at anybody in Group A.
For starters, I want the above to claim their roles and night actions / results, if they have any. I think we should then move from there. I would note that Whydon I can technically kill tonight so might not be a great vote option today, all else equal.
Note that this is not a post intended to let DLE / Drookez / Cel / Nuxl off the hook. I still think we should discuss those slots because there is guaranteed at least one scum in there as well. But I think that the above list of five is a better place to look for today.
This post took way too long to write so I'm probably going to go play games and not reply to anything for a while. I want to see reactions and I want to see claims from the above list of five before making any more moves. Nobody should be voting for anybody today until we come to a consensus vote. It is likely that two or three villagers voting for the wrong person could be quickhammered by a coordinated mafia.
For reference, my prior suggestions were (in order): Realiti, Shadowpea, Caffine, idle (it turns out that I can in fact suggest and use Execute, but I didn't realize this until it was too late). I'm a bit confused on how neither realiti nor shadowpea ended up on my list - CaffeineBoost, did you remove either / both of them from the list? It is also possible my action just failed since apparently we never get any results to that effect in this game.
This means that, given I think there is likely only one scum in Group A, there are at least 3 mafia in the remaining 5, and there may well be 4 or even 5. For reference, the remaining five in Group B are:
Realiti
Shadowpea
Spiderz
Vizh
Whydon
Maximum (assuming there are 5 suggesters) is
5+4+4+4=17
Tbh I don't think Dave actively contributed to this, same with HH. If the list is really only as big as 8 then either suggest 4 is idle or mafia can remove roles.
It's more of a meta read. Town almost always has a doctor, and the fact that his role interacts in a cool way with mine (clearing people from the list) makes sense flavor- and design-wise. I think Caff is just mechanically town here and at this point I'm willing to lose if I'm wrong on that.
Maximum (assuming there are 5 suggesters) is
5+4+4+4=17
Tbh I don't think Dave actively contributed to this, same with HH. If the list is really only as big as 8 then either suggest 4 is idle or mafia can remove roles.
Yes, if we think that they were removed. It is also possible my role failed - we just don't know. I do think it is likely mafia has a way to remove from the list though.
Okay. I haven't removed any names from this list, but I am a case of a town role who can remove names from the list. It's possible that someone else who's town can remove names but...
No, they weren't 100% removed. My action could have failed. But I do think it's unlikely it failed twice like that and I think it is likely at least one was removed.
I think it is much more likely that someone removing names from the list is mafia rather than village. I think you are likely our only source of removing names from the list.
i agree with this for obvious reasons, but i think we need to be incredibly cautious about splitting votes in general. if shadowpea is mafia, more people with votes gives them more people as options to matchmake. we should also probably think about in the past if there were any sort of suspicious random votes that couldve been trying to give shadowpea some extra picks. i cant remember anything like that really (except maybe celevers voting roulette eod3) but just something to keep in mind!
i agree with this for obvious reasons, but i think we need to be incredibly cautious about splitting votes in general. if shadowpea is mafia, more people with votes gives them more people as options to matchmake. we should also probably think about in the past if there were any sort of suspicious random votes that couldve been trying to give shadowpea some extra picks. i cant remember anything like that really (except maybe celevers voting roulette eod3) but just something to keep in mind!
Not Voting (3): Da Letter El, shadowpea, Caffeineboost
Of these, the suspicious ones to me are the whydon / realiti / shadowpea / spiderz votes on D1 (on Dyo / Realiti), the realiti, Whydon, and Spiderz votes on D2 (on Celever / Dyo / Laurel), and the Clouds vote on D3 (from Realiti). D4 had no random votes.
In other words, on each of the first three days Realiti randvoted someone. Two of those are confirmed / flipped villagers, while the third is Celever. On two of those days both Whydon and Spiderz posted random votes on what we now know to be flipped villagers (outside of Spiderz' vote on D1 onto Realiti). Shadowpea also randvoted onto Realiti D1.
Idk if any of this is really proof, but it sure looks like there are some connections between Shadowpea - Realiti, with Shadowpea - Whydon and Shadowpea - Spiderz as lesser pairings.
Again none of this should drive a vote, but worth considering in the event Shadowpea is mafia.
