First of all, I just realized that I made some mistakes in the calcs in my original post about Beartic. I calced with AV Chan having 252 Attack EVs when it typically only runs 136. I will correct that after I finish this post.
LO Chan OHKOes Beartic 62.5% of the time with Mach after Rocks but it OHKOes AlolaSlash 100% of the time whether or not Rocks are up.
252+ Atk Life Orb Iron Fist Hitmonchan Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 234-276 (70.6 - 83.3%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Life Orb Iron Fist Hitmonchan Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Sandslash-Alola: 333-395 (114.4 - 135.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
It's also worth noting that LO Chan isn't all that common. AV Chan is much more popular and does not kill Bear with Mach after Rocks.
As for Gurdurr, Beartic's matchup with it is admittedly not perfect but it can bust through it a fair amount of the time, which is more than can be said for AlolaSlash.
252 Atk Sandslash-Alola Iron Head vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 264-312 (79.7 - 94.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
It also forces plenty of switches. Beartic is not all that hard to set up with and can still be threatening without setup. It has great coverage and huge Attack, after all.
0 SpA Mesprit Psychic vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Beartic: 121-144 (36.5 - 43.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Clefairy Seismic Toss vs. 0 HP Beartic: 100-100 (30.2 - 30.2%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
0 SpA Clefairy Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Beartic: 82-97 (24.7 - 29.3%) -- 99.9% chance to 4HKO
136+ Atk Iron Fist Hitmonchan Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 164-194 (49.5 - 58.6%) -- 98.4% chance to 2HKO
192+ Atk Gurdurr Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 144-170 (43.5 - 51.3%) -- 6.3% chance to 2HKO
So, if Mesprit rolls high with Psychic and Chan rolls high with Mach Punch, Beartic dies. That's pretty unlikely. Mesprit Psychic+ Gurdurr Mach Punch never kills, barring crits. Clefairy obviously fares even worse. Let me reiterate that even if it doesn't sweep, Beartic is almost certainly killing something if it gets to+2, which it will against defensive Mesprit or Clef.
Toge leaving was good for Beartic. Yeah, Ape is still an issue and will probably rise in usage but given the current meta, I don't think it is as splashable as Toge was. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Even if it is as splashable, I doubt that its usage will surpass the combined past usage of Toge and Ape. As I showed in my original post, +2 Aqua Jet does over 50% to Ape, so it can be overcome if chipped. +6 Jet OHKOes but I acknowledge that it's rare to get to +6. The Defense drops of Close Combat can also cause it to be more susceptible to AJ.
I grant you that the Rock weakness is unfortunate but to say that it effectively makes Beartic just as weak to Fighting as Slash is an overstatement. Acknowledging that Rocks are an issue is fair enough. Acting as though there will rarely, if ever, be a situation in which Beartic does not switch into Rocks is taking things too far. Even assuming Rocks are always up, Beartic still handles fighting priority better than AlolaSlash.Beartic may not have the x4 weakness to Fighting but Alolaslash's typing allows it not to be Rock weak, which I believe to be very significant when it comes to a mon that is supposed to sweeping. Because you do not account for rocks being up (which I think should be accounted for tbh even if you have removal), Beartic is easily revenge-killed and actually dies to LO chan's Mach Punch. Sure, AV chan and gurdurr don't ohko it with Mach, but it takes a considerable chunk, rocks included, and is unable to switch in again. It may kill Chan with Subzero but Gurdurr is only 2hko at +0 and just proceeds to Drain Punch. This really mitigates the argument about not having x4 Fighting weakness since rocks just reduce its longevity compared to alolaslash and they're both as vulnerable to Fighting as one another.
LO Chan OHKOes Beartic 62.5% of the time with Mach after Rocks but it OHKOes AlolaSlash 100% of the time whether or not Rocks are up.
252+ Atk Life Orb Iron Fist Hitmonchan Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 234-276 (70.6 - 83.3%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Life Orb Iron Fist Hitmonchan Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Sandslash-Alola: 333-395 (114.4 - 135.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
It's also worth noting that LO Chan isn't all that common. AV Chan is much more popular and does not kill Bear with Mach after Rocks.
As for Gurdurr, Beartic's matchup with it is admittedly not perfect but it can bust through it a fair amount of the time, which is more than can be said for AlolaSlash.
I think you undervalue Aqua Jet. Being able to pick off weakened revenge killers and priority users is really handy. In one of the replays I included in my original post, Beartic is able to stay in against Simisear after Hail has stopped thanks to Aqua Jet. Situations like that are not super uncommon.Secondly, Aqua Jet may be nice priority to chip faster mons like Ape, but this is in the ideal situation where Beartic is at a +2 after Swords Dance.
Ice is bad defensive typing but Beartic isn't exactly frail. 95/80/80 defenses are not bad for an offensive mon. For example, it lives an Iron Head from AlolaSlash:Beartic isn't the most bulkiest mon, pure Ice type offering it pretty much nothing defensively and nothing is just gonna let it set up for free.
252 Atk Sandslash-Alola Iron Head vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 264-312 (79.7 - 94.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
It also forces plenty of switches. Beartic is not all that hard to set up with and can still be threatening without setup. It has great coverage and huge Attack, after all.
Alright, let's run some calcs using the mons you mentioned. I already addressed the Stealth Rock thing and I think it's fair to assume there are no Rocks in this scenario since both defensive Mes and Clef are typically sent in early to get up Rocks and Beartic can switch in as Mes or Clef use SR to avoid damage. Of course, there are other variations of this scenario but this is the one that I've found myself in most frequently. I'll assume AV Chan since that's by far the most common set.Even passive mons like Clef and defensive Mes will have enough chip damage with their STAB to allow something like again, Gurdurr and Chan to kill it because it is in Mach Punch range and if Rocks are up, then its finished.
0 SpA Mesprit Psychic vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Beartic: 121-144 (36.5 - 43.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Clefairy Seismic Toss vs. 0 HP Beartic: 100-100 (30.2 - 30.2%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
0 SpA Clefairy Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Beartic: 82-97 (24.7 - 29.3%) -- 99.9% chance to 4HKO
136+ Atk Iron Fist Hitmonchan Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 164-194 (49.5 - 58.6%) -- 98.4% chance to 2HKO
192+ Atk Gurdurr Mach Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Beartic: 144-170 (43.5 - 51.3%) -- 6.3% chance to 2HKO
So, if Mesprit rolls high with Psychic and Chan rolls high with Mach Punch, Beartic dies. That's pretty unlikely. Mesprit Psychic+ Gurdurr Mach Punch never kills, barring crits. Clefairy obviously fares even worse. Let me reiterate that even if it doesn't sweep, Beartic is almost certainly killing something if it gets to+2, which it will against defensive Mesprit or Clef.
Its Speed is less than ideal but it is not as big an issue as you make it out to be. In Hail, it still outspeeds everything relevant that isn't at +1, Scarfed, or Sandslash Alola and it has priority and it can wallbreak.Speed is still a huge issue for this mon, and I acknowledge you realise alolaslash beats it in this department but just because Toge is gone, doesn't mean things get better for Beartic. Scarf Ape is gonna be on the rise again and being one of the scarfers that are able to outspeed +2 Beartic means it's pressured as much as it was before.
Toge leaving was good for Beartic. Yeah, Ape is still an issue and will probably rise in usage but given the current meta, I don't think it is as splashable as Toge was. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Even if it is as splashable, I doubt that its usage will surpass the combined past usage of Toge and Ape. As I showed in my original post, +2 Aqua Jet does over 50% to Ape, so it can be overcome if chipped. +6 Jet OHKOes but I acknowledge that it's rare to get to +6. The Defense drops of Close Combat can also cause it to be more susceptible to AJ.
You keep focusing on it is as a sweeper but as I've repeatedly pointed out, it's not just a sweeper; it's also a wallbreaker. I do not "fail to see the flaws associated with this Pokemon". I am intimately familiar with them. I have acknowledged them. That's why I nommed it for D. It's niche but it can be a valuable member of some teams. At the very least, it's useful on full hail, which you admit. You even admit that it may occasionally be useful on semi hail.I think saying Beartic is a "solid" hail sweeper is a bit of an overstatement and you fail to see the flaws associated with this pokemon. Like if you're running full-hail, then go ahead and use Beartic. But on semi-hail cores like Aurorus + Alolaslash, 9.9 out of 10 times, alolaslash will always take that spot over Beartic. There's little reason to use Beartic outside of dedicated full hail and it's still outclassed by alolaslash in semi-hail.