Smogon Premier League XI - Week 8

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sexy_ampharos

sexy_ampharos

Sample Size of Advanced Stats is now somewhat ok... Here are purely record- and schedule- based predictions for week 8
Note:
1. It does not include Tiers: That means - for example MajorBowman has a huge advantage versus Posho, even though he does not play Doubles this week... Including Tiers would need far more matches than SPL holds, so I have to live with that.
2. Players who did not play any games yet, obviously cannot be calculated, so it gives the opponent who has played games yet a (dis-)advantage of 5%: That means - although marilli has a relatively good 4 - 0 - 3 record, vs. talkingtree the advantage is only 55%

SOS: Strength of Schedule - based on opponents' win% and opponents' opponents' win% (scale from 0-100)
PER: Pokemon Efficiency Rating - based on own win% and SOS (standardized values - 0.00 would be the average of the league; 1.00 would be one standard deviation better than the average of the league, -1.00 would be one standard deviation worse than the average of the league)
Statistical Advantage: Percentage values based on different PERs of opponents
Note:
values are only given, if you played more than 3 games to this date

Structure:
Record1 / Name1 (SOS value [SOS rank], PER value [PER rank]) vs. Record2 / Name2 (SOS value [SOS rank], PER value [PER rank])
Statistical Advantage: Name1 or Name2: XY%

5 - 0 - 2 / Star (SOS = 57.15 [7]; PER = 1.511 [10]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / Sacri' (SOS = 48.094 [79]; PER = 1.009 [27])
Statistical Advantage: Star 59.5%
2 - 0 - 4 / The Hallows (SOS = 52.111 [43]; PER = -0.309 [92]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / Updated Kanto (SOS = 52.013 [47]; PER = 0.072 [75])
Statistical Advantage: Updated Kanto 60.5%
4 - 0 - 1 / 1 True Lycan (SOS = 51.27 [58]; PER = 1.526 [8]) vs. 3 - 0 - 1 / soulgazer (SOS = 50.353 [62]; PER = 1.273 [16])
Statistical Advantage: 1 True Lycan 54%
4 - 0 - 3 / SMB (SOS = 44.841 [97]; PER = 0.331 [57]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / Tman (SOS = 50.219 [65]; PER = 0.013 [83])
Statistical Advantage: SMB 64.5%
1 - 0 - 1 / Jytcampbell (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 7 - 0 - 0 / ggggd (SOS = 46.165 [90]; PER = 1.925 [1])
Statistical Advantage: ggggd 87.5%
6 - 0 - 1 / Welli0u (SOS = 40.733 [114]; PER = 1.052 [23]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / Eo Ut Mortus (SOS = 52.007 [48]; PER = 0.072 [75])
Statistical Advantage: Welli0u 79.5%
4 - 0 - 3 / Sjneider (SOS = 46.618 [89]; PER = 0.41 [53]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / Garay oak (SOS = 52.271 [40]; PER = 0.081 [72])
Statistical Advantage: Sjneider 61.5%
2 - 0 - 5 / Pearl (SOS = 53.398 [30]; PER = -0.474 [98]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / Finchinator (SOS = 52.899 [35]; PER = 1.275 [15])
Statistical Advantage: Finchinator 90%
4 - 0 - 3 / BIHI (SOS = 50.034 [66]; PER = 0.561 [45]) vs. 4 - 0 - 2 / shawyu 1313 (SOS = 53.241 [31]; PER = 1.097 [21])
Statistical Advantage: shawyu 1313 62.5%
6 - 0 - 1 / BKC (SOS = 43.534 [104]; PER = 1.239 [17]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / z0mOG (SOS = 40.674 [115]; PER = 0.597 [43])
Statistical Advantage: BKC 64%
1 - 0 - 6 / sulcata (SOS = 54.214 [22]; PER = -1.057 [113]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / Mr.E (SOS = 48.552 [74]; PER = -0.043 [84])
Statistical Advantage: Mr.E 68.5%
1 - 0 - 4 / rozes (SOS = 53.777 [28]; PER = -0.823 [103]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / HML am (SOS = 55.808 [10]; PER = 0.818 [32])
Statistical Advantage: HML am 90%
5 - 0 - 2 / FLCL (SOS = 53.114 [33]; PER = 1.287 [13]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / teal6 (SOS = 44.062 [102]; PER = 0.297 [61])
Statistical Advantage: FLCL 77.5%
3 - 0 - 4 / Empo (SOS = 52.026 [46]; PER = 0.073 [74]) vs. 6 - 0 - 1 / bro fist (SOS = 53.616 [29]; PER = 1.909 [2])
Statistical Advantage: bro fist 90%
3 - 0 - 4 / Twixtry (SOS = 52.186 [41]; PER = 0.078 [73]) vs. 6 - 0 - 1 / xray (SOS = 47.76 [83]; PER = 1.52 [9])
Statistical Advantage: xray 86%
3 - 0 - 4 / qsns (SOS = 55.669 [12]; PER = 0.194 [66]) vs. 0 - 0 - 4 / Kiichikos (SOS = 50.255 [63]; PER = -1.658 [116])
Statistical Advantage: qsns 85%
4 - 0 - 3 / jake (SOS = 53.168 [32]; PER = 0.7 [36]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / EviGaro (SOS = 45.162 [96]; PER = -0.155 [88])
Statistical Advantage: jake 79%
6 - 0 - 1 / Gondra (SOS = 42.809 [107]; PER = 1.19 [19]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / frisoeva (SOS = 45.708 [94]; PER = 0.37 [54])
Statistical Advantage: Gondra 69%
5 - 0 - 2 / xImRaptor (SOS = 46.038 [92]; PER = 0.895 [29]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / Erzengel (SOS = 51.66 [54]; PER = 0.634 [42])
Statistical Advantage: xImRaptor 57%
4 - 0 - 3 / Caetano93 (SOS = 51.753 [53]; PER = 0.638 [41]) vs. 7 - 0 - 0 / SoulWind (SOS = 42.303 [110]; PER = 1.626 [7])
Statistical Advantage: SoulWind 68.5%
1 - 0 - 1 / Emeral (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / DeepBlueC (SOS = 48.478 [75]; PER = -0.045 [85])
Statistical Advantage: Emeral 63%
4 - 0 - 3 / Alexander. (SOS = 44.772 [99]; PER = 0.328 [58]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / Blightbringer (SOS = 51.901 [51]; PER = 0.069 [77])
Statistical Advantage: Alexander. 61%
4 - 0 - 3 / FriendOfMrGolem120 (SOS = 42.336 [109]; PER = 0.22 [65]) vs. 2 - 0 - 5 / Conflict (SOS = 55.795 [11]; PER = -0.42 [97])
Statistical Advantage: FriendOfMrGolem120 69%
0 - 0 - 3 / ErPeris (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / Genesis7 (SOS = 54.072 [24]; PER = 0.141 [70])
Statistical Advantage: Genesis7 82.5%
4 - 0 - 2 / blarghlfarghl (SOS = 41.6 [112]; PER = 0.51 [47]) vs. 2 - 0 - 4 / Sabella (SOS = 48.602 [73]; PER = -0.375 [96])
Statistical Advantage: blarghlfarghl 79%
5 - 0 - 2 / suapah (SOS = 54.95 [15]; PER = 1.395 [11]) vs. 4 - 0 - 2 / Sage (SOS = 47.4 [87]; PER = 0.807 [33])
Statistical Advantage: suapah 62.5%
4 - 0 - 3 / Insult (SOS = 37.784 [118]; PER = 0.039 [82]) vs. 0 - 0 - 1 / xtra$hine (< 4 games, no stats)
Statistical Advantage: Insult 77%
6 - 0 - 1 / stax (SOS = 40.379 [116]; PER = 1.038 [25]) vs. 7 - 0 - 0 / Ezrael (SOS = 43.724 [103]; PER = 1.738 [3])
Statistical Advantage: Ezrael 62%
4 - 0 - 3 / Serene Grace (SOS = 53.78 [27]; PER = 0.741 [35]) vs. 1 - 0 - 4 / idiotfrommars (SOS = 55.388 [13]; PER = -0.769 [102])
Statistical Advantage: Serene Grace 90% --> already happened, predicted correctly
0 - 0 - 2 / false (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 2 - 0 - 3 / ima (SOS = 54.436 [18]; PER = 0.053 [81])
Statistical Advantage: ima 77.5%
2 - 0 - 3 / Persephone (SOS = 47.776 [82]; PER = -0.152 [90]) vs. 6 - 0 - 1 / Santu (SOS = 50.662 [60]; PER = 1.715 [4])
Statistical Advantage: Santu 90% --> already happened, predicted falsely, huge upset
1 - 0 - 6 / Raiza (SOS = 56.115 [8]; PER = -1.004 [112]) vs. 2 - 0 - 0 / Frania (< 4 games, no stats)
Statistical Advantage: Frania 90%
2 - 0 - 1 / Excal (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 2 - 0 - 4 / GaryTheGengar (SOS = 49.835 [69]; PER = -0.344 [95])
Statistical Advantage: Excal 79%
5 - 0 - 2 / Tamahome (SOS = 44.674 [100]; PER = 0.831 [31]) vs. 1 - 0 - 1 / CALLOUS (< 4 games, no stats)
Statistical Advantage: Tamahome 63.5%
5 - 0 - 2 / KratosMana (SOS = 49.867 [68]; PER = 1.116 [20]) vs. 0 - 0 - 0 / Diophantine (< 4 games, no stats)
Statistical Advantage: KratosMana 55%
4 - 0 - 3 / Amaranth (SOS = 47.227 [88]; PER = 0.453 [52]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / Nails (SOS = 54.062 [25]; PER = 1.346 [12])
Statistical Advantage: Nails 72%
3 - 0 - 4 / McMeghan (SOS = 51.652 [55]; PER = 0.06 [78]) vs. 3 - 0 - 1 / Simia (SOS = 57.329 [5]; PER = 1.68 [5])
Statistical Advantage: Simia 90%
2 - 0 - 3 / Steve Angello (SOS = 50.503 [61]; PER = -0.09 [87]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / Lusa (SOS = 38.901 [117]; PER = 0.499 [46])
Statistical Advantage: Lusa 73.5%
1 - 0 - 1 / Kebab mlml (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 2 - 0 - 2 / Vulpix03 (SOS = 51.923 [50]; PER = 0.357 [55])
Statistical Advantage: Vulpix03 72%
1 - 0 - 4 / robjr (SOS = 45.838 [93]; PER = -0.946 [108]) vs. 1 - 0 - 2 / kaori (< 4 games, no stats)
Statistical Advantage: kaori 55%
4 - 0 - 3 / Osh (SOS = 42.981 [106]; PER = 0.249 [63]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / LilyAC (SOS = 48.392 [77]; PER = 0.489 [48])
Statistical Advantage: LilyAC 59%
2 - 0 - 4 / Tace (SOS = 54.005 [26]; PER = -0.26 [91]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / Trosko (SOS = 44.472 [101]; PER = 0.315 [60])
Statistical Advantage: Trosko 68%
5 - 0 - 2 / Luigi (SOS = 49.683 [70]; PER = 1.097 [21]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / reiku (SOS = 57.209 [6]; PER = 0.245 [64])
Statistical Advantage: Luigi 73.5%
4 - 0 - 3 / MajorBowman (SOS = 50.243 [64]; PER = 0.571 [44]) vs. 0 - 0 - 5 / Posho (SOS = 66.871 [1]; PER = -1.658 [116])
Statistical Advantage: MajorBowman 90%
1 - 0 - 1 / Raichy (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / ToF (SOS = 47.474 [86]; PER = 0.974 [28])
Statistical Advantage: ToF 67%
0 - 0 - 1 / Eeveeto (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 3 - 0 - 3 / pasy_g (SOS = 51.89 [52]; PER = 0.356 [56])
Statistical Advantage: pasy_g 90% --> already happened, predicted correctly
3 - 0 - 3 / Zokuru (SOS = 47.683 [84]; PER = 0.193 [67]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / dice (SOS = 45.705 [95]; PER = 0.876 [30])
Statistical Advantage: dice 70.5%
3 - 0 - 4 / Kaz (SOS = 48.053 [81]; PER = -0.059 [86]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / MetalGro$$ (SOS = 48.733 [72]; PER = 1.044 [24])
Statistical Advantage: MetalGro$$ 84.5%
1 - 0 - 2 / Leo (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 3 - 0 - 3 / TDK (SOS = 54.262 [21]; PER = 0.448 [51])
Statistical Advantage: TDK 73%
1 - 0 - 1 / starry blanket (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / Christo (SOS = 42.278 [111]; PER = 0.686 [37])
Statistical Advantage: Christo 77%
1 - 0 - 3 / Quaze (SOS = 51.569 [56]; PER = -0.657 [99]) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / blunder (SOS = 52.787 [36]; PER = 0.098 [71])
Statistical Advantage: blunder 68%
0 - 0 - 0 / talkingtree (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / marilli (SOS = 54.406 [19]; PER = 0.755 [34])
Statistical Advantage: marilli 55%
1 - 0 - 5 / tazz (SOS = 49.347 [71]; PER = -1.019 [111]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / Luthier (SOS = 52.914 [34]; PER = 1.276 [14])
Statistical Advantage: Luthier 90%
3 - 0 - 4 / Lopunny Kicks (SOS = 54.108 [23]; PER = 0.142 [69]) vs. 1 - 0 - 2 / CTC (< 4 games, no stats)
Statistical Advantage: Lopunny Kicks 68%
1 - 0 - 2 / Adri (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 3 - 0 - 4 / CrashinBoomBang (SOS = 51.433 [57]; PER = 0.053 [79])
Statistical Advantage: CrashinBoomBang 62%
3 - 0 - 4 / zf (SOS = 55.374 [14]; PER = 0.184 [68]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / John W (SOS = 48.163 [78]; PER = 0.478 [49])
Statistical Advantage: John W 61% --> already happened, predicted correctly
2 - 0 - 1 / Kevin Garrett (< 4 games, no stats) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / The Grand Babido (SOS = 48.407 [76]; PER = 1.026 [26])
Statistical Advantage: The Grand Babido 52%
6 - 0 - 1 / CyberOdin (SOS = 43.34 [105]; PER = 1.226 [18]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / Gilbert arenas (SOS = 47.642 [85]; PER = 0.455 [50])
Statistical Advantage: CyberOdin 67.5%
7 - 0 - 0 / Fear (SOS = 42.455 [108]; PER = 1.638 [6]) vs. 5 - 0 - 2 / gorgie (SOS = 41.526 [113]; PER = 0.645 [40])
Statistical Advantage: Fear 68.5%
4 - 0 - 3 / Bedschibaer (SOS = 51.947 [49]; PER = 0.646 [39]) vs. 4 - 0 - 3 / Heroic Troller (SOS = 52.381 [39]; PER = 0.666 [38])
Statistical Advantage: Heroic Troller 50.5% --> already happened, predicted correctly

P.S.: Feel free to point out mistakes! I am collecting data and calculating completely on my own... Obviously mistakes are bound to happen!
 
Last edited:
sexy_ampharos

sexy_ampharos

Steve Angello said:
McMeghan 90% chance of losing u trash bro


Playing on sunday around 7 pm+1 (75% chance of me losing with monofire this time, sounds legit ngl)
Click to expand...
This is only numbers... of course, i would personally say McMeghan has a higher winning chance... but what sense in doing any kind of statistics when i adjust it with anyones opinion? Thanks for calling me trash for no reason whatsoever though! This is how community works the best! with that feedback I am now able to do so much better.

P.S.: That percentage adjustment was added so that people who do not understand what I did have at least something to interpret... naturally, I will unreservedly apologize for adding something convenient, when you are clearly upset with that. how could I dare and try to contribute something to this tournament when I am not a player... stupid me!

Edit: guess I am the fool now for misinterpreting :D
 
Last edited:
Ruft

Ruft

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sexy_ampharos said:
This is only numbers... of course, i would personally say McMeghan has a higher winning chance... but what sense in doing any kind of statistics when i adjust it with anyones opinion? Thanks for calling me trash for no reason whatsoever though! This is how community works the best! with that feedback I am now able to do so much better.

P.S.: That percentage adjustment was added so that people who do not understand what I did have at least something to interpret... naturally, I will unreservedly apologize for adding something convenient, when you are clearly upset with that. how could I dare and try to contribute something to this tournament when I am not a player... stupid me!
Click to expand...
He called McMeghan trash in a joking manner based on the statistics, I don't see it as throwing shade towards you. You're good bro, we appreciate your statistical analysis.
 
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