I shall prove that croagunk is not a reliable counter!
36 Atk Timburr Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 52 HP / 116 Def Eviolite Croagunk: 3-4 (13.6 - 18.1%) -- possible 6HKO
(3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4)
22 - 1 from SR = 21 - 3 KO dmg = 18 hp croagunk
Switch into stunky now.
188+ Atk Croagunk Knock Off vs. 18 HP / 224 Def Stunky: 2-3 (8.6 - 13%) -- possible 8HKO
(2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
23 - 3 KO dmg = 20 hp stunky
188+ Atk Croagunk Drain Punch vs. 18 HP / 224 Def Stunky: 9-12 (39.1 - 52.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO
(9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 12)
68 SpA Stunky Fire Blast vs. 52 HP / 116 SpD Dry Skin Croagunk: 10-12 (45.4 - 54.5%) -- 37.1% chance to 2HKO
(10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12)
This becomes a little harder to judge at this point because stunky was provided with unusually ev investment into special attack and has a 43% chance to get 11 damage on fireblasts. The drain punches however definitely averages 10 damage.
18 - 10 (fireblast) + 5 (D-punch) = 13 hp croagunk
20 - 10 = 10 hp stunky.
If both fire blast low roll 10 damage then croagunk lives on 2 hitpoints and recovers 5 hitpoints from drainpunch to remain at 7 hitpoints. There is only a 37.1% chance that the fire blasts would both hit 11 damage so the majority of time you could say that croagunk would kill stunky. However, then there is after math damage to factor in.
22 X .25 = 5.5 = 5 hitpoints
18 - 20 (low fireblasts) + 10 (2 D-punch recovery) = 7 - 5 (aftermath) = 3 hp croagunk
Timburr now comes back with a vengeance and mach punches croagunk to death
36 Atk Timburr Mach Punch vs. 52 HP / 116 Def Croagunk: 3-4 (13.6 - 18.1%) -- possible 6HKO
(3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4)
3 - 3 = DEAD CROAGUNK.
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So obviously croagunk doesn't counter this dou but I will go farther to prove that D-punch spam and 1 bulk up also result in croagunk losing.
188+ Atk Croagunk Drain Punch vs. 16 HP / 224 Def Eviolite Stunky: 7-9 (30.4 - 39.1%) -- 17.6% chance to 3HKO
(7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 9)
+1 188+ Atk Croagunk Drain Punch vs. 16 HP / 224 Def Eviolite Stunky: 9-12 (39.1 - 52.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO
(9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 12)
D-punch does the same damage at +1 that it does after a knock off. Thus, using bulk up the turn that stunky switches in would actually be inferior to using knock off. I already disproved that knocking off stunky on the switch won't work so I can entirely ignore a bulk up on the switch cause as it would be inferior and do nothing to reduce the incoming fire blasts.
So what we must look at is simply drain punch spam from croagunk.
23 - 7 (D-punch) = 16 hp stunky
18 + 3 (d-punch recovery) = 21 hp croagunk
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16 - 7 = 9 hp stunky
21 + 3 - 10 = 14 hp croagunk
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9 - 7 = 2 hp stunky
14 + 3 - 10 = 7 hp croagunk
12 Atk Stunky Sucker Punch vs. 52 HP / 116 Def Croagunk: 4-6 (18.1 - 27.2%) -- 1.4% chance to 4HKO
(4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6)
0- SpA Croagunk Vacuum Wave vs. 18 HP / 28 SpD Eviolite Stunky: 4-6 (17.3 - 26%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO
(4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 6)
Croagunk is forced to use vacuum wave at this point to finish the faster stunky off or a fire blast will finish croagunk off. Doing this avoid after math damage but taking 4 damage from sucker punch again leaves croagunk at only 3 hitpoints where timburrs mach punch again easily finishes it off. Again, however, I did use the low roll 10 damage fireblasts while there is a 37.1% chance to get 11 - 12 damage fireblasts that kill croagunk without the need of sucker punch and mach punch.
So it's a DEAD Croagunk no matter what strategy you use sadly as long as the timburr and stunky are used correctly.
36 Atk Timburr Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 52 HP / 116 Def Eviolite Croagunk: 3-4 (13.6 - 18.1%) -- possible 6HKO
(3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4)
22 - 1 from SR = 21 - 3 KO dmg = 18 hp croagunk
Switch into stunky now.
188+ Atk Croagunk Knock Off vs. 18 HP / 224 Def Stunky: 2-3 (8.6 - 13%) -- possible 8HKO
(2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
23 - 3 KO dmg = 20 hp stunky
188+ Atk Croagunk Drain Punch vs. 18 HP / 224 Def Stunky: 9-12 (39.1 - 52.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO
(9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 12)
68 SpA Stunky Fire Blast vs. 52 HP / 116 SpD Dry Skin Croagunk: 10-12 (45.4 - 54.5%) -- 37.1% chance to 2HKO
(10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12)
This becomes a little harder to judge at this point because stunky was provided with unusually ev investment into special attack and has a 43% chance to get 11 damage on fireblasts. The drain punches however definitely averages 10 damage.
18 - 10 (fireblast) + 5 (D-punch) = 13 hp croagunk
20 - 10 = 10 hp stunky.
If both fire blast low roll 10 damage then croagunk lives on 2 hitpoints and recovers 5 hitpoints from drainpunch to remain at 7 hitpoints. There is only a 37.1% chance that the fire blasts would both hit 11 damage so the majority of time you could say that croagunk would kill stunky. However, then there is after math damage to factor in.
22 X .25 = 5.5 = 5 hitpoints
18 - 20 (low fireblasts) + 10 (2 D-punch recovery) = 7 - 5 (aftermath) = 3 hp croagunk
Timburr now comes back with a vengeance and mach punches croagunk to death
36 Atk Timburr Mach Punch vs. 52 HP / 116 Def Croagunk: 3-4 (13.6 - 18.1%) -- possible 6HKO
(3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4)
3 - 3 = DEAD CROAGUNK.
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So obviously croagunk doesn't counter this dou but I will go farther to prove that D-punch spam and 1 bulk up also result in croagunk losing.
188+ Atk Croagunk Drain Punch vs. 16 HP / 224 Def Eviolite Stunky: 7-9 (30.4 - 39.1%) -- 17.6% chance to 3HKO
(7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 9)
+1 188+ Atk Croagunk Drain Punch vs. 16 HP / 224 Def Eviolite Stunky: 9-12 (39.1 - 52.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO
(9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 12)
D-punch does the same damage at +1 that it does after a knock off. Thus, using bulk up the turn that stunky switches in would actually be inferior to using knock off. I already disproved that knocking off stunky on the switch won't work so I can entirely ignore a bulk up on the switch cause as it would be inferior and do nothing to reduce the incoming fire blasts.
So what we must look at is simply drain punch spam from croagunk.
23 - 7 (D-punch) = 16 hp stunky
18 + 3 (d-punch recovery) = 21 hp croagunk
-----
16 - 7 = 9 hp stunky
21 + 3 - 10 = 14 hp croagunk
-----
9 - 7 = 2 hp stunky
14 + 3 - 10 = 7 hp croagunk
12 Atk Stunky Sucker Punch vs. 52 HP / 116 Def Croagunk: 4-6 (18.1 - 27.2%) -- 1.4% chance to 4HKO
(4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6)
0- SpA Croagunk Vacuum Wave vs. 18 HP / 28 SpD Eviolite Stunky: 4-6 (17.3 - 26%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO
(4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 6)
Croagunk is forced to use vacuum wave at this point to finish the faster stunky off or a fire blast will finish croagunk off. Doing this avoid after math damage but taking 4 damage from sucker punch again leaves croagunk at only 3 hitpoints where timburrs mach punch again easily finishes it off. Again, however, I did use the low roll 10 damage fireblasts while there is a 37.1% chance to get 11 - 12 damage fireblasts that kill croagunk without the need of sucker punch and mach punch.
So it's a DEAD Croagunk no matter what strategy you use sadly as long as the timburr and stunky are used correctly.
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