Makin' it Rain: UU Rain discussion

[franky]

@ Heysup

Late response but what I meant by "HO on drugs" is that rain already has two added bonus in a form of STAB bonus and x2 Speed. With that being said, the rain sweepers can use these aforementioned boost to their advantage to open up set-up opportunities. The last thing a player wants is facing a +2 Pokemon under rain, believe me, it's very hard to handle.

As for "weeding out" Kabutops, I stated that its unfair because there are other sweepers that could be equally good as a rain sweeper. Kabutops is very good as a rain dance sweeper, albeit not a broken sweeper. I've stated already that rain dance functions as a group to focus on a spectrum. Kabutops can't do it alone by itself.

If you truly want to know the other sweepers qualities, then let me explain it. Qwilfish is an absolute nightmare to face because it has access to Explosion, which allows it to set up Swords Dance on the opponent p. easily. Furthermore, Poison Jab ensures that defensive Grass' are disposed of. Last but not least, it has Poison-typing, which give it a resistance to work with.

Ludicolo is another sweeper that could be equally as good as Kabutops due its versatility. Ludicolo is a fearsome special sweeper and a physical sweeper. This is an underrated quality people often forget with Ludicolo; make a wrong switch-in, your screwed. The other great quality with Ludicolo is that its typing is excellent. You can only hit it super effectively with Flying and Poison-type moves - two uncommon moves for defensive Pokemon. With p. good bulk, good luck hurting it without a super effective move.

I truly believe the two sweepers I mentioned are equally up to par with Kabutops with the reasons listed. Sure Kabutops has Aqua Jet, Stone Edge, and good Defense but the aforementioned Pokemon have their own qualities which make them dangerous sweepers as well. Don't get me wrong, Kabutops is a really good sweeper; I just find it unfair that Kabutops deserves to be banned when I feel like the other sweepers are equally dangerous.

 

[shrang]

Recall that the characteristic for BL is "sweeps through a significant portion of the metagame"

We must also remember there is a 2nd part for the Offensive Characteristic, which is "Sweeping through a significant portion of the metagame with little to no support". Rain is definitely not NO support, whether it is little support, that remains to be seen. However, apart from Kabutops (Who can wreck quite a lot of things without even SDing in the Rain), every other Swift Swimmer requires Rain and a little more to sweep. For example, Ludicolo needs to SD up if it ever plans to be threatening (Special set doesn't require this, but you need to gamble a prediction to Focus Punch Chansey on the switch). Qwilfish can't get past Milotic without SD or Explosion (And generally won't be too threatening without SD), Gorebyss requires Spikes to get past Milotic and Chansey (Not to mention it needs to run Specs, locking yourself into a move knocks back your ability to sweep). This is not little to no support in my opinion. Plenty of things can sweep if you give it three turns of set-up. Kabutops is probably the Swift Swimmer which requires the least support to sweep (I mean, it's fine as it is without Rain).

 

[SilentVerse]

Qwilfish can't get past Milotic without SD or Explosion (And generally won't be too threatening without SD)

Uh, Quilfish can just SD up on Milo, since unless it runs Haze, it's not doing much and Quilfish can hit it hard with Poison Jabs. All the Quilfish I've seen run SD anyways.

 

[Stellar]

Actually, in the rain 0 SpA Standard Milotic 2HKOs Qwilfish (45.4% - 53.5%) while Qwilfish cannot OHKO Milotic after a SD (64.1% - 75.6%). I don't think that qualifies as "not doing much".

 

[Reflect Suicune]

I have to agree... personally I am anti ban, but I definitely agree that no one swift swimmer really stands above and beyond the others to merit a pokemon ban.

 

[SilentVerse]

Actually, in the rain 0 SpA Standard Milotic 2HKOs Qwilfish (45.4% - 53.5%) while Qwilfish cannot OHKO Milotic after a SD (64.1% - 75.6%). I don't think that qualifies as "not doing much".

Wow, I didn't expect it would be doing that much. And Quilfish has to run 80 HP EVs if it wants to avoid being 2HKO'd by Milo, where it's still going to die from LO recoil.I should really do more calcs before I post.

Personally though, I find that it wouldn't be just one Pokemon that makes a rain team broken. I have found that it is a combination of Pokemon that rain should be broken for, not just one, as a lot of rain sweepers seem to have good sweeping synergy together with rain up (from what I've faced-I haven't played as rain much).

 

[whistle]

tl;dr: Kabutops sweeps through every scarfer, priority user, bulky waters, and bulky non-water-type Pokemon while the others are all stopped by at least two of those four (Ludicolo: bulky water (Slowbro), bulky non-waters, and priority, Qwilfish: Bulky waters, bulky non-waters, priority, Gorebyss: bulky waters, bulky non-waters, priority (less so than the other two though)). Kabutops smashes through basically everything.

i'm not interested in debating this part of the debate because (a) everyone else is jumping all over it anyways (b) this type of argument (i.e. x is better than y, etc) always devolves into people exchanging fucking ridiculous numbers of posts which is tbh just a hassle to read not to even to reply to.

my argument is that even assuming kabutops is the only pokemon that is broken while under rain, we should still ban rain and not kabutops. the arguments about whether the assumption is actually true (i.e. is kabutops the best ?!?!) aren't relevant to what i'm talking about.

Well I tried to make it clear that Spikes and Rain were essentially the same thing in the opposite situation. Easy Spikes are in the situation where it breaks several Pokemon, therefore it is the culprit, and Rain Dance is only broken by Kabutops, meaning Kabutops is the culprit. Deductive reasoning suggests this anyway.

why? you haven't given a warrant that explains why kabutops is the culprit even assuming it's the only pokemon that's broken by rain. i've given several reasons why this isn't the case:

1. separate the two. rain benefits every swift swimmer in the exact same way i.e. doubled speed and an additional stab bonus. to conceptualize what i'm trying to get at let's construct an artificial scale of the "goodness" of a pokemon -- it's a scale of 1-150, and 100 is the "uber" line for a given tier. keeping in mind that i'm assuming your (heysup's) arguments about kabutops being the best sweeper, assign the following ratings:

kabutops w/o rain: 90
ludicolo w/o rain: 60
gorebyss w/o rain: 50
qwilfish w/o rain: 60

kabutops w/ rain: 120
ludicolo w/ rain: 90
gorebyss w/ rain: 80
qwilfish w/ rain: 90

rain raises the effectiveness of each pokemon by 30 completely arbitrary points on a non-linear scale (the point isn't that "kabutops gets 30% better in rain" but rather that "rain benefits everything equally"). kabutops is only broken by rain because it's better than the others to begin with, which by itself isn't anything banworthy. it is only banworthy once rain is added to the equation.

2. you can't apply the same reasoning reverse. the sweepers define a rain team and not the other way around, so saying "rain is not broken without kabutops but it becomes broken with kabutops" doesn't make that much sense. additionally, the comparison i drew above is the logical way to think about it because kabutops is used tons on rain and non-rain teams alike but there aren't many (aren't any?) competitive rain teams without kabutops. finally, the precedent set by things like abomasnow (assume it was banned under the support clause for walrein / froslass / etc) / spikes (assume froslass is broken and these spikes are coming from her) stays the same -- the key reasoning for why these pokemon are the ones banned and not the pokemon that they break is because they provide necessary support that breaks other pokemon.

3. quantity doesn't matter. the reason you only have one "culprit" pokemon under rain (kabutops) is because the sample size of rain sweepers is so small in the first place. literally EVERY offensive pokemon likes spikes, so it makes sense that a higher raw number of them become broken in its presence. regardless of this (imo) logical fallacy, there's no reason that the number of pokemon that become broken gives any indication as to what the problem factor is. why don't we just ban moltres and swellow? oh yeah -- it's cause spikes is at fault here. same thing with kabutops. it's fine without rain but becomes broken in rain, so it's rain's fault.

And? What's wrong with finding the one broken Pokemon in Rain Dance and banning what's broken? The reason we wouldn't do this for Spikes is because it affects so many. When you have a situation like Spikes, it's pretty clear that Spikes is the culprit and not every individual Pokemon.

it may be clear to you but you haven't given any reason for it to be clear to me / others reading. also, the part of my post that you quoted in your response is my #3 argument, to clarify.

edit: to clarify, when i use the term "ban rain" itc i mean "take steps to reduce rain's effectiveness", not literally "ban the move rain dance". i've posted before (beginning of np: rain drops specifically, among other places) about why i think banning damp rock is a preferred first step over straight up banning the move rain dance. also, i should point out that i'm not taking a stance either way on whether rain is broken or not or if kabutops is broken or not -- i'm just posting in an assumed world. (on a side note i find it kind of interesting that i always feel the need to post disclaimers in uu discussion threads for fear that everyone will jump down my throat ................... hmmmmmmmmm)

 

[Heysup]

@ Heysup

As for "weeding out" Kabutops, I stated that its unfair because there are other sweepers that could be equally good as a rain sweeper. Kabutops is very good as a rain dance sweeper, albeit not a broken sweeper. I've stated already that rain dance functions as a group to focus on a spectrum. Kabutops can't do it alone by itself.

I don't see how using a team that "focuses on one spectrum" means that there cannot be any broken Pokemon on it. I mean, look at Yanmega, Staraptor, Gallade, and Honchkrow. They were all used on Heavy Offense and focused on destroying "one spectrum", yet they were banned because they were absolutely fulfilling the OC or the SC, depending on which roles they played.

I truly believe the two sweepers I mentioned are equally up to par with Kabutops with the reasons listed. Sure Kabutops has Aqua Jet, Stone Edge, and good Defense but the aforementioned Pokemon have their own qualities which make them dangerous sweepers as well. Don't get me wrong, Kabutops is a really good sweeper; I just find it unfair that Kabutops deserves to be banned when I feel like the other sweepers are equally dangerous.

Once again, I don't mean to make the argument that Kabutops is better overall. I am trying to point out that, as a sweeper, Kabutops is the only Rain Dance sweeper that fulfills the offensive characteristics, namely because of Stone Edge, and its monstrous Attack + SD + Priority combo.

Kabutops is probably the Swift Swimmer which requires the least support to sweep (I mean, it's fine as it is without Rain).

I keep forgetting to bring this up, so thanks.

Kabutops is the only Rain Dance that absolutely doesn't "rely" on the Rain (maybe Qwilfish as well, but to a lesser degree).

Kabutops is able to take out its would-be counters in a maximum of 2-3 Rain Dance turns, and easily sweep the rest of the team without Rain. It still has Base 80 Speed, STAB Priority, and 722 Attack.

i'm not interested in debating this part of the debate because (a) everyone else is jumping all over it anyways (b) this type of argument (i.e. x is better than y, etc) always devolves into people exchanging fucking ridiculous numbers of posts which is tbh just a hassle to read not to even to reply to.

Fair enough whoostleh (that was an attempt to make your name sound jewish)

my argument is that even assuming kabutops is the only pokemon that is broken while under rain, we should still ban rain and not kabutops. the arguments about whether the assumption is actually true (i.e. is kabutops the best ?!?!) aren't relevant to what i'm talking about.

I know, but the fact that Kabutops is fulfilling the OC is relevant in my opinion. Rain isn't fulfilling the "SC" (not because it isn't a Pokemon, because it doesn't "make" Kabutops broken, Kabutops abuses the rain to the point that it's impossible to stop even after the rain dies down).

why? you haven't given a warrant that explains why kabutops is the culprit even assuming it's the only pokemon that's broken by rain. i've given several reasons why this isn't the case:

1. separate the two. rain benefits every swift swimmer in the exact same way i.e. doubled speed and an additional stab bonus. to conceptualize what i'm trying to get at let's construct an artificial scale of the "goodness" of a pokemon -- it's a scale of 1-150, and 100 is the "uber" line for a given tier. keeping in mind that i'm assuming your (heysup's) arguments about kabutops being the best sweeper, assign the following ratings:

kabutops w/o rain: 90
ludicolo w/o rain: 60
gorebyss w/o rain: 50
qwilfish w/o rain: 60

kabutops w/ rain: 120
ludicolo w/ rain: 90
gorebyss w/ rain: 80
qwilfish w/ rain: 90

rain raises the effectiveness of each pokemon by 30 completely arbitrary points on a non-linear scale (the point isn't that "kabutops gets 30% better in rain" but rather that "rain benefits everything equally"). kabutops is only broken by rain because it's better than the others to begin with, which by itself isn't anything banworthy. it is only banworthy once rain is added to the equation.

I don't see the issue here. If Kabutops and only Kabutops is broken under rain, then lets ban what is broken. It doesn't matter that Rain affects all of the Pokemon the same amount (if it does indeed affect them the same amount, I'm sceptical of that point but it's not too important) because in the end what matters is "What is broken?" This is why we banned shit like Honchkrow and even Wobbuffet not the Pokemon that it increased the effectiveness of (which it did essentially equally for many Pokemon I might add).

2. you can't apply the same reasoning reverse. the sweepers define a rain team and not the other way around, so saying "rain is not broken without kabutops but it becomes broken with kabutops" doesn't make that much sense. additionally, the comparison i drew above is the logical way to think about it because kabutops is used tons on rain and non-rain teams alike but there aren't many (aren't any?) competitive rain teams without kabutops. finally, the precedent set by things like abomasnow (assume it was banned under the support clause for walrein / froslass / etc) / spikes (assume froslass is broken and these spikes are coming from her) stays the same -- the key reasoning for why these pokemon are the ones banned and not the pokemon that they break is because they provide necessary support that breaks other pokemon.

Why? If anything, your comparison supports the fact that Kabutops is the culprit.

Additionally, Abomasnow was not banned because it "broke" Walrein, Froslass, and etc; it was banned because it was broken itself due to SubSeed + Hail. Otherwise Snover would have been theorybanned.

In any event, the reason that Spikes (from Froslass), though similar to Rain Dance, were banned was because they broke more than one Pokemon. This means that Spikes was the common denominator. Rain on the other hand does not. There is a way to deduce Spikes being the culprit, but because there is no way to deduce that for Rain, you cannot assume Rain is the culprit.

3. quantity doesn't matter. the reason you only have one "culprit" pokemon under rain (kabutops) is because the sample size of rain sweepers is so small in the first place. literally EVERY offensive pokemon likes spikes, so it makes sense that a higher raw number of them become broken in its presence. regardless of this (imo) logical fallacy, there's no reason that the number of pokemon that become broken gives any indication as to what the problem factor is. why don't we just ban moltres and swellow? oh yeah -- it's cause spikes is at fault here. same thing with kabutops. it's fine without rain but becomes broken in rain, so it's rain's fault.

It's not the direct numbers that I'm comparing, it's the relative ones. The fact that Spikes breaks "many" Pokemon and is a clear common denominator shows that it should be broken, while Rain does NOT break anything other than Kabutops. It's not the fact that "More Pokemon are broken with Spikes than with Rain", its the fact that "Spikes breaks many Pokemon, while Kabutops is the only Pokemon broken under Rain".




it may be clear to you but you haven't given any reason for it to be clear to me / others reading. also, the part of my post that you quoted in your response is my #3 argument, to clarify.

edit: to clarify, when i use the term "ban rain" itc i mean "take steps to reduce rain's effectiveness", not literally "ban the move rain dance". i've posted before (beginning of np: rain drops specifically, among other places) about why i think banning damp rock is a preferred first step over straight up banning the move rain dance. also, i should point out that i'm not taking a stance either way on whether rain is broken or not or if kabutops is broken or not -- i'm just posting in an assumed world. (on a side note i find it kind of interesting that i always feel the need to post disclaimers in uu discussion threads for fear that everyone will jump down my throat ................... hmmmmmmmmm)

So you want to ban the move Rain Dance????? /jumpdownyourthroat

But seriously by that logic you can simply "ban anything" to reduce Rains effectiveness. We should be banning what is broken, not what "slightly nerfs something that contributes to another thing being broken". If your goal is to reduce Rain's effectiveness then I don't see why you're even against banning Kabutops since it would do just that. You even said yourself that there was no competitive Rain teams without Kabutops.

 

[Banedon]

For example, Ludicolo needs to SD up if it ever plans to be threatening (Special set doesn't require this, but you need to gamble a prediction to Focus Punch Chansey on the switch).

Well not necessarily because you can Surf vs. Chansey and then predict he'll Softboiled to use Focus Punch.

I've also wondered what ToF's team would do if Ludicolo switched in. Say the standard opening: Qwilfish lays spikes as Stall switches to Rotom. Rotom Thunderbolts (I think Will o the Wisp is a better move here) as Rain goes to Mesprit. Mesprit puts up rain. Next turn Mesprit does a slow U-turn to bring Ludicolo in safely.

What's Stall going to do now? Guessing from ToF's response earlier Stall will switch in Tangrowth on the Swords Dance. So Tangrowth comes in and eats a Surf to the face, taking massive damage (around 50% - don't have exact EVs so can't be precise). Now facing a 2HKO Tangrowth switches to Chansey, who winds up taking a Focus Punch. Standard 252 Def Calm Chansey takes a massive 76.1% - 89.9% from Focus Punch @ 60 attack EVs for Ludicolo, even more if the Spikes are still down. Then stall needs Chansey to deal with Gorebyss, even though Gorebyss too can kill Chansey with Aqua Tail, so stall must switch out ... to take another rain boosted Surf. It sure looks like stall is in a very dangerous situation.

A good example of a team that Kabutops can't sweep through but Ludicolo can, too.

PS: Heysup I wait for you to nominate Kabutops under the OC next round.

 

[Ekanselttar]

If Tangrowth comes in on the swords dance, it doesn't take a surf to the face at the same time. Right now you've got:

Turn 1: Spikes/Switch to Rotom
Turn 2: Switch to Mespirit/Thunderbolt
Turn 3: Rain Dance/?
Turn 4: U-Turn Ludicolo in/?
Turn 5: Swords Dance + Surf/Switch Tangrowth in
Turn 6: Focus Punch/Switch to Chansey

A Kabutops in the same situation could 2HKO Tangrowth anyways.

 

[shrang]

Now facing a 2HKO Tangrowth switches to Chansey, who winds up taking a Focus Punch.

Predicting isn't as simple as that. What if Tangrowth predicts your Focus Punch and decides to Sleep Powder instead?? You can't just outline a theorymon'd battle and say "Oh, Rain is going to win here because this is exactly what would happen". It isn't. Ludicolo might not even go up against Tangrowth. What if he sends in Milotic instead (I'm not sure if he has one, but what is a Stall team without Milotic)?? Sure, you can Grass Knot it, but what if he switches in Chansey then?? Things can go very differently, and Rain is all about prediction, not just mindlessly spamming shit.

 

[Banedon]

Nono I mean if Tangrowth switches in on what it thinks is a Swords Dance, but instead takes a Surf - i.e. it switches in on what it thinks is a physical Ludicolo, but instead meets a special variant. Special Ludicolo will Surf at once of course; physical Ludicolo may SD first.

In the two ? spots I'm imagining Rotom staying in to Shadow Ball Mesprit, or Hitmontop coming in to spin away spikes. In either case they can't stay in now that rain is up and Ludicolo's threatening to OHKO.

@shrang - yes but then you must also consider the alternative, that is if Tangrowth stays in and Ludicolo Surfs again (or Ice Beams, I didn't do calcs), Tangrowth would be dead and Ludicolo at 80%. Either way it's not a comfortable situation for stall. Also according to ToF the team is something like Omastar / Arcanine / Tangrowth / Chansey / Rotom / Hitmontop = no Milotic.

 

[Stellar]

The problem I have with Banedon's argument is that the Ludicolo in his scenario requires significantly more prediction to accomplish its sweep than a Kabutops would. Kabutops is able to 'straight-up' sweep more easily than that Ludicolo. (Perhaps not against ToF's team due to the presence of Tangrowth, but in general; not everyone is going to be using ToF stall.)

 

[Ekanselttar]

Hmm, I guess I didn't realize that Tangrowth takes so much from a surf. I also realize now that SD doesn't boost surf :P

My mistake.

 

[FlareBlitz]

Against a typical stall team, Kabutops has difficulty using SD simply because of all the paralysis moves they'll have. Honestly, I'm strongly considering using something with Safeguard to aid in Kabutops' or Ludicolo's sweep. It'll also prevent cheeky Venusaurs from Sleep Powdering me.

 

[Heysup]

Against a typical stall team, Kabutops has difficulty using SD simply because of all the paralysis moves they'll have. Honestly, I'm strongly considering using something with Safeguard to aid in Kabutops' or Ludicolo's sweep. It'll also prevent cheeky Venusaurs from Sleep Powdering me.

You really don't even need to use Swords Dance until you can sweep.

Step 1: send Kabutops in on Chansey or Arcanine or Whatever you want.
Step 2: SPAM STONE EDGE
Step 3: eventually their butops counter dies due to no recovery (Tangrowth's Synthesis sucks in the rain)...unless it's Slowbro.

I mean, obviously if you get outplayed with Kabutops, you'll still lose, however I would just like to point out that stall doesn't have the option of using something like Toxicroak or CB Azumarill to check Kabutops. Stall teams HATE switching into Rock-type attacks. They always have. All they have is Slowbro to take Kabutops on.

 

[Nas]

I'd consider Altaria, it sets up Rain Dance, has access to Heal Bell, and learns Safeguard. It's also a decent Venusaur counter, and can force switches via Perish Song to ensure your sweepers get in safe.

 

[FlareBlitz]

I had actually been using Altaria, but some Raikou still use HP Ice and these would proceed to shit all over my team. I might replace Leafeon with Meganium (it learns Safeguard and Aromatherapy) but I love Leafeon's offense and speed.

 

[whistle]

<Heysup> i would just post a lot <Heysup> and you wouldn't reply

I know, but the fact that Kabutops is fulfilling the OC is relevant in my opinion. Rain isn't fulfilling the "SC" (not because it isn't a Pokemon, because it doesn't "make" Kabutops broken, Kabutops abuses the rain to the point that it's impossible to stop even after the rain dies down).

hey stop going outside of my imaginary world. if kabutops is impossible to stop after the rain dies down then it is broken both inside and outside of rain; the case i'm arguing is if it is broken in rain but merely good outside of rain. then there's not much else to discuss cause that's one of the main assumptions of my argument. if that *isn't* what you meant then you have yet to give a reason why rain is the party at fault.

I don't see the issue here. If Kabutops and only Kabutops is broken under rain, then lets ban what is broken. It doesn't matter that Rain affects all of the Pokemon the same amount (if it does indeed affect them the same amount, I'm sceptical of that point but it's not too important) because in the end what matters is "What is broken?" This is why we banned shit like Honchkrow and even Wobbuffet not the Pokemon that it increased the effectiveness of (which it did essentially equally for many Pokemon I might add).

i can't argue with something until i am sure it's not logically inconsistent:

"If Kabutops and only Kabutops is broken under rain, then lets ban what is broken." seems to imply that the broken party is the pokemon that does the sweeping
"This is why we banned shit like Honchkrow and even Wobbuffet not the Pokemon that it increased the effectiveness of (which it did essentially equally for many Pokemon I might add)." seems to imply that the broken party is the entity that increases the effectiveness of another pokemon

note that just because something does the sweeping doesn't mean it's what we should ban... which seems to be the only warrant in your "kabutops is broken" claim. yes, for the purposes of this debate, my position is that the entity "kabutops in rain" -- but the question to be answered is not to determine what is doing the sweeping (since that is obvious) but to determine what is at fault (which i say is rain dance).

Why? If anything, your comparison supports the fact that Kabutops is the culprit.

because...? the point is to consider two mini thought experiments with alternating the presence of kabutops and the presence of rain dance as controlled and independent variables. in the first one, we first look at kabutops without rain then look at it with rain. hey, look, adding rain made it broken. in the second one, we first look at rain dance without kabutops then look at rain dance with kabutops. but wait -- this is an invalid experiment, because rain dance is defined by it sweepers; it's impossible to quantify how "broken" a rain team is without reverting to first quantifying how "broken" its sweepers are, which becomes circular because that's what we're trying to quantify in the first place. this means the only logically consistent conclusion is that rain breaks kabutops and not the other way around.

Additionally, Abomasnow was not banned because it "broke" Walrein, Froslass, and etc; it was banned because it was broken itself due to SubSeed + Hail. Otherwise Snover would have been theorybanned.

quote from whistle: "assume it was banned under the support clause for walrein / froslass / etc"

regardless of the "main" reason it was banned at least part of the reason was that it supports other pokemon similarly to how froslass and arguably rain dance supports other pokemon. theorybans are pretty obsolete now lol and anyways there was talk about banning snover just because of its ability back when hail rampaged the ladder. either way it doesn't matter why abomasnow was banned i was just giving the argument an example pokemon.

In any event, the reason that Spikes (from Froslass), though similar to Rain Dance, were banned was because they broke more than one Pokemon. This means that Spikes was the common denominator. Rain on the other hand does not. There is a way to deduce Spikes being the culprit, but because there is no way to deduce that for Rain, you cannot assume Rain is the culprit.

my argument is that it's highly possible that this part of your argument is just a perception fallacy. it seems like you are jumping to the conclusion of "kabutops is broken" just because it sticks out as the pokemon that is most broken under rain while there are a few pokemon that are broken with spikes support. this means that your statement of "there is no way to deduce that for Rain" isn't necessarily true; it just means that our sample group isn't large enough.

It's not the direct numbers that I'm comparing, it's the relative ones. The fact that Spikes breaks "many" Pokemon and is a clear common denominator shows that it should be broken, while Rain does NOT break anything other than Kabutops. It's not the fact that "More Pokemon are broken with Spikes than with Rain", its the fact that "Spikes breaks many Pokemon, while Kabutops is the only Pokemon broken under Rain".

spikes breaks 5/50 pokemon
rain breaks 1/6 pokemon
(note to those watching at home: actual numbers may vary)
my point is that if you "expand" the fraction 1/6 then you get something like 5/30 or 8/50 which are similar to spikes' ratio (if you account for uncertainty derived from the fact that i made those numbers up and the fact that you can't split a pokemon into half).

But seriously by that logic you can simply "ban anything" to reduce Rains effectiveness. We should be banning what is broken, not what "slightly nerfs something that contributes to another thing being broken". If your goal is to reduce Rain's effectiveness then I don't see why you're even against banning Kabutops since it would do just that. You even said yourself that there was no competitive Rain teams without Kabutops.

first note that just because competitive rain teams use kabutops doesn't mean it's broken -- i brought up that argument solely (which means "only" in case YOU'RE BAD AT ENGLISH :P) as a reason why comparing rain teams with and without kabutops isn't easy to theorymon. basically every rain team uses ludicolo too and you don't think that's broken.

second, my goal isn't to nerf rain dance -- it's to ban what's at fault for unbalancing the tier, which isn't always the pokemon that is sweeping. at any rate i think that idea is the same one behind the support characteristic (all the characteristics, really, but it's most easily seen in the support characteristic).

ps: all disclaimers about necessary assumptions still apply so no one pull a uu forum on me thanks

 

[Banedon]

Lol whistle!

Here's another random rain log (it's actually the fourth game ever I've played with it). While using Ludicolo does require prediction, it doesn't always work too. Again annotations by yours truly.

Hide

Rules: Evasion Clause, Extended Game, OHKO Clause, Soul Dew Clause, Species Clause, Timed Battle
ShinyAzelf sent out Cloyster (lvl 100 Cloyster ?).
Banedon sent out Qwilfish (lvl 100 Qwilfish ?).
Qwilfish used Rain Dance.
Rain began to fall!
Cloyster used Spikes.
Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
The rain continues to fall.

Initial rain to guarantee that I'll be able to put up a layer of Spikes and then Explode safely with rain up. If I Spikes this turn he'll probably Rapid Spin.
---
Qwilfish used Spikes.
Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
Cloyster used Spikes.
Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
The rain continues to fall.
---
Qwilfish used Explosion.
Cloyster lost 97% of its health.
Banedon's Qwilfish fainted.
Cloyster used Rapid Spin.
But there was no target!
The rain continues to fall.
Cloyster's leftovers restored its health a little!
Cloyster restored 6% of its health.

"no spin for u", as FlareBlitz once said.
---
Banedon switched in Ludicolo (lvl 100 Ludicolo ?).
Ludicolo was hurt by Spikes!
Ludicolo lost 19% of its health.
Ludicolo used Surf.
It's not very effective...
Cloyster lost 59% of its health.
ShinyAzelf's Cloyster fainted.
Ludicolo lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Chansey (lvl 100 Chansey ?).
Chansey was hurt by Spikes!
Chansey lost 12% of its health.
Ludicolo is tightening its focus!
Chansey used Seismic Toss.
Ludicolo lost 33% of its health.
Ludicolo used Focus Punch.
Ludicolo lost its focus and couldn't move!
The rain continues to fall.
Chansey's leftovers restored its health a little!
Chansey restored 6% of its health.
---
Banedon: Baddie
Banedon: Lol
ShinyAzelf: :P
Banedon: You were supposed to Toxic
Banedon switched in Uxie (lvl 100 Uxie).
Chansey used Seismic Toss.
Uxie lost 28% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Chansey's leftovers restored its health a little!
Chansey restored 6% of its health.

Alternatively, I could've Surfed and then only Focus Punched.
---
ShinyAzelf: :P
Uxie used Yawn.
Chansey became drowsy!
Chansey used Stealth Rock.
Pointed stones float in the air around the foe's team!
The rain continues to fall.

Had to wait for rain to subside before putting it back up, although at this point I could've U-turned to Mesprit.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Rotom (lvl 100 Rotom).
Uxie used U-turn.
It's not very effective...
Rotom lost 5% of its health.
Banedon switched in Mesprit (lvl 100 Mesprit).
Pointed stones dug into Mesprit.
Mesprit lost 12% of its health.
The rain stopped.
---
Rotom used Trick.
Rotom obtained Damp Rock!
Mesprit obtained Choice Scarf!
Mesprit used Rain Dance.
Rain began to fall!
The rain continues to fall.

This part was a mistake. I knew he was Scarfed, I just didn't know who to take the Scarf with. On hindsight, Uxie would've been the best choice since I needed Mesprit to Healing Wish.
---
Banedon switched in Uxie (lvl 100 Uxie).
Pointed stones dug into Uxie.
Uxie lost 12% of its health.
Rotom used Discharge.
Uxie lost 16% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
---
Uxie used Yawn.
Rotom became drowsy!
Rotom used Discharge.
Uxie lost 17% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.

Don't want to switch a rain sweeper into an electric attack here.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Venusaur (lvl 100 Venusaur ?).
Venusaur was hurt by Spikes!
Venusaur lost 12% of its health.
Uxie used U-turn.
A critical hit!
Venusaur lost 21% of its health.
Banedon switched in Gorebyss (lvl 100 Gorebyss ?).
Gorebyss was hurt by Spikes!
Gorebyss lost 18% of its health.
Pointed stones dug into Gorebyss.
Gorebyss lost 12% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Venusaur's leftovers restored its health a little!
Venusaur restored 6% of its health.
---
Banedon: Whoops suddenly forgot something important
That something is that I didn't give Gorebyss any attack EVs (it's got Aqua Tail).
Gorebyss used Ice Beam.
It's super effective!
Venusaur lost 81% of its health.
ShinyAzelf's Venusaur fainted.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
The rain stopped.

He may've predicted me to go to Kabutops; I did after all attempt to Focus Punch Chansey.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Rotom (lvl 100 Rotom).
Banedon switched in Mesprit (lvl 100 Mesprit).
Pointed stones dug into Mesprit.
Mesprit lost 12% of its health.
Rotom used Discharge.
Mesprit lost 18% of its health.
Mesprit is paralysed! It may be unable to move!
---
Rotom used Discharge.
Mesprit lost 19% of its health.
Mesprit is paralysed! It can't move!
---
Rotom used Discharge.
Mesprit lost 18% of its health.
Mesprit used Rain Dance.
Rain began to fall!
The rain continues to fall.
---
Rotom used Discharge.
A critical hit!
Mesprit lost 37% of its health.
Banedon's Mesprit fainted.
The rain continues to fall.
---
ShinyAzelf: Sorry
No problem since I was waiting for Mesprit to die so I can get a free switch in ...
Banedon switched in Ludicolo (lvl 100 Ludicolo ?).
Ludicolo was hurt by Spikes!
Ludicolo lost 19% of its health.
Pointed stones dug into Ludicolo.
Ludicolo lost 12% of its health.
Ludicolo used Surf.
Rotom lost 103% of its health.
ShinyAzelf's Rotom fainted.
Ludicolo lost 10% of its health.
Banedon's Ludicolo fainted.
The rain continues to fall.

He may have predicted I would predict he'd go to Chansey and use another Focus Punch.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Milotic (lvl 100 Milotic ?).
Banedon switched in Gorebyss (lvl 100 Gorebyss ?).
Milotic was hurt by Spikes!
Milotic lost 12% of its health.
Gorebyss was hurt by Spikes!
Gorebyss lost 18% of its health.
Pointed stones dug into Gorebyss.
Gorebyss lost 12% of its health.
Gorebyss used Hidden Power.
It's super effective!
Milotic lost 50% of its health.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
Milotic used Recover.
Milotic restored 50% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Milotic's leftovers restored its health a little!
Milotic restored 6% of its health.
---
Gorebyss used Hidden Power.
It's super effective!
Milotic lost 52% of its health.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
Milotic used Recover.
Milotic restored 50% of its health.
The rain stopped.
Milotic's leftovers restored its health a little!
Milotic restored 6% of its health.
---
Milotic used Recover.
Milotic restored 50% of its health.
Gorebyss used Hidden Power.
It's super effective!
Milotic lost 44% of its health.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
Banedon's Gorebyss fainted.
Milotic's leftovers restored its health a little!
Milotic restored 6% of its health.

Milotic sucks, but I can't go to Kabutops without dying.
---
Banedon switched in Uxie (lvl 100 Uxie).
Pointed stones dug into Uxie.
Uxie lost 12% of its health.
Uxie used Rain Dance.
Rain began to fall!
Milotic used Recover.
Milotic restored 50% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Chansey (lvl 100 Chansey ?).
Chansey was hurt by Spikes!
Chansey lost 12% of its health.
Uxie used Yawn.
Chansey became drowsy!
The rain continues to fall.
Chansey's leftovers restored its health a little!
Chansey restored 6% of its health.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Milotic (lvl 100 Milotic ?).
Milotic was hurt by Spikes!
Milotic lost 12% of its health.
Uxie used Yawn.
Milotic became drowsy!
The rain continues to fall.
Milotic's leftovers restored its health a little!
Milotic restored 6% of its health.
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Spiritomb (lvl 100 Spiritomb ?).
Spiritomb is exerting its pressure!
Spiritomb was hurt by Spikes!
Spiritomb lost 12% of its health.
Uxie used U-turn.
Spiritomb lost 12% of its health.
Banedon switched in Kabutops (lvl 100 Kabutops ?).
Kabutops was hurt by Spikes!
Kabutops lost 19% of its health.
Pointed stones dug into Kabutops.
Kabutops lost 12% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Spiritomb's leftovers restored its health a little!
Spiritomb restored 6% of its health.
---
Kabutops used Swords Dance.
Kabutops's attack was sharply raised.
Spiritomb used Toxic.
Kabutops was badly poisoned!
The rain continues to fall.
Kabutops is hurt by poison!
Kabutops lost 6% of its health.
Spiritomb's leftovers restored its health a little!
Spiritomb restored 6% of its health.

I don't have a choice I have to risk burn / toxic etc and Swords Dance, or I can't sweep the rest of his team.
---
Banedon: Now you use Toxic when you're supposed to Sucker Punch
Banedon: Lol
Spiritomb used Sucker Punch.
But it failed!
Kabutops used Swords Dance.
Kabutops's attack was sharply raised.
The rain continues to fall.
Kabutops is hurt by poison!
Kabutops lost 12% of its health.
Spiritomb's leftovers restored its health a little!
Spiritomb restored 6% of its health.

I didn't do calcs, but I doubt +2 Aqua Jet in the rain can OHKO Spiritomb. On hindsight though praying for a crit is my only chance of winning the game.
---
Kabutops used Aqua Jet.
Spiritomb lost 128% of its health.
ShinyAzelf's Spiritomb fainted.
Kabutops lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Kabutops is hurt by poison!
Kabutops lost 19% of its health.
---
Banedon: gg
ShinyAzelf switched in Chansey (lvl 100 Chansey ?).
Chansey was hurt by Spikes!
Chansey lost 12% of its health.
ShinyAzelf: gg
Kabutops used Waterfall.
Chansey lost 299% of its health.
ShinyAzelf's Chansey fainted.
Kabutops lost 10% of its health.
The rain stopped.
Kabutops is hurt by poison!
Kabutops lost 25% of its health.
Banedon's Kabutops fainted.

Sad one more turn and I would've been able to sweep Milotic too :(
---
ShinyAzelf switched in Milotic (lvl 100 Milotic ?).
Banedon switched in Uxie (lvl 100 Uxie).
Pointed stones dug into Uxie.
Uxie lost 12% of its health.
Milotic was hurt by Spikes!
Milotic lost 12% of its health.
Banedon: Mind if I save log?
ShinyAzelf: Sure
Uxie used U-turn.
Milotic lost 9% of its health.
Milotic used Surf.
Uxie lost 22% of its health.
Banedon's Uxie fainted.
ShinyAzelf wins!
Banedon: Ok
Banedon: Thanks for game
ShinyAzelf: Np

EDIT: Rain log from game 5, annontated.

Hide

Rules: Evasion Clause, Freeze Clause, OHKO Clause, Sleep Clause, Soul Dew Clause, Species Clause, Strict Damage Clause, Timed Battle
Steinhauser sent out Tank Push (lvl 100 Rhyperior ?).
Banedon sent out Qwilfish (lvl 100 Qwilfish ?).
Qwilfish used Spikes.
Spikes were scattered around the foe's team!
Tank Push used Earthquake.
It's super effective!
Qwilfish lost 100% of its health.
Banedon's Qwilfish fainted.

Was kinda expecting an Earthquake but didn't want to switch to Uxie / Mesprit to absorb it (they'd die to Megahorn, after all). Also didn't know what set Rhyperior was running; it might put up Rocks.
---
Banedon switched in Uxie (lvl 100 Uxie).
Steinhauser switched in MM with Stim (lvl 100 Clefable ?).
MM with Stim was hurt by Spikes!
Uxie used Rain Dance.
Rain began to fall!
The rain continues to fall.
MM with Stim was burned!

I went to Uxie because it can live a Megahorn.
---
Uxie used U-turn.
MM with Stim lost 13% of its health.
Banedon switched in Mesprit (lvl 100 Mesprit).
MM with Stim used Thunder Wave.
Mesprit is paralysed! It may be unable to move!
The rain continues to fall.
MM with Stim was hurt by its burn!

Since Clefable stayed in it was probably going to burn / paralyze. I went to Mesprit to absorb the status, and luckily it's paralysis.
---
MM with Stim used Seismic Toss.
Mesprit lost 27% of its health.
Mesprit used U-turn.
MM with Stim lost 20% of its health.
Banedon switched in Gorebyss (lvl 100 Gorebyss ?).
The rain continues to fall.
MM with Stim was hurt by its burn!

Slow U-turn ftw.
---
Steinhauser switched in Dark Swarm (lvl 100 Venusaur ?).
Dark Swarm was hurt by Spikes!
Dark Swarm lost 12% of its health.
Gorebyss used Surf.
It's not very effective...
Dark Swarm lost 32% of its health.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Dark Swarm's Black Sludge restored a little health!
Dark Swarm restored 6% of its health.
---
Gorebyss used Ice Beam.
It's super effective!
A critical hit!
Dark Swarm lost 62% of its health.
Steinhauser's Dark Swarm fainted.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
---
Steinhauser: : {
Banedon: Sorry =(
Banedon: Would it have KO'ed?
Steinhauser: I don't think so
Banedon: What're your EVs?
Banedon: I'll run calcs
Steinhauser: Max/max
Steinhauser: calm
Game-changing crit here, unfortunately.
Steinhauser switched in MM with Stim (lvl 100 Clefable ?).
MM with Stim was hurt by Spikes!
Banedon: 53.3% - 63.2%
DrunkRacoon has entered the room.
Banedon: So need max damage roll
Steinhauser: So very very slim chance
DrunkRacoon has left the room.
Steinhauser: Probably <10% including crit chance
Banedon: Now
Banedon: Are you max/max Calm?
Banedon: Lol
Steinhauser: Not telling : }
Gorebyss used Surf.
MM with Stim lost 67% of its health.
Steinhauser's MM with Stim fainted.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
---
Steinhauser: well, it's no use without venusaur
Steinhauser switched in DT Drop (lvl 100 Spiritomb ?).
DT Drop is exerting its pressure!
DT Drop was hurt by Spikes!
DT Drop lost 12% of its health.
Gorebyss used Surf.
DT Drop lost 87% of its health.
Steinhauser's DT Drop fainted.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
---
Steinhauser switched in Psi Storm (lvl 100 Alakazam ?).
Psi Storm was hurt by Spikes!
Psi Storm lost 12% of its health.
Banedon: Yeah gg
Gorebyss used Surf.
Psi Storm lost 88% of its health.
Steinhauser's Psi Storm fainted.
Gorebyss lost 10% of its health.
The rain stopped.
---
Steinhauser: Nah, bg : {
Steinhauser switched in Muta Harass (lvl 100 Scyther ?).
Banedon: Yeah the crit ended it
Muta Harass used Aerial Ace.
Gorebyss lost 50% of its health.
Banedon's Gorebyss fainted.
Muta Harass lost 10% of its health.

With such a Pokemon advantage and two more rain sweepers still unscathed, I sacrificed Gorebyss to get Uxie / Mesprit in safely against a Scyther who might Swords Dance + probably has bug attacks.
---
Banedon switched in Uxie (lvl 100 Uxie).
Muta Harass used Swords Dance.
Muta Harass's attack was sharply raised.
Uxie used Rain Dance.
Rain began to fall!
The rain continues to fall.
---
Muta Harass used Aerial Ace.
Uxie lost 72% of its health.
Muta Harass lost 10% of its health.
Uxie used Yawn.
Muta Harass became drowsy!
The rain continues to fall.
---
Muta Harass used Aerial Ace.
Uxie lost 28% of its health.
Banedon's Uxie fainted.
Muta Harass lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Muta Harass fell asleep!
---
Banedon switched in Ludicolo (lvl 100 Ludicolo ?).
Ludicolo used Surf.
Muta Harass lost 70% of its health.
Steinhauser's Muta Harass fainted.
Ludicolo lost 10% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
---
Steinhauser has left the room.
Banedon wins!

EDIT#2 - @Heysup tell me where this comparison fails.

Send Kabutops in on Chansey <-> Send Aggron in on Chansey
SPAM STONE EDGE <-> SPAM CHOICE BANDED HEAD SMASH
Eventually their butops counter dies due to no recovery <-> Eventually their Aggron counter dies due to no recovery (or in Tangrowth's case, gets 2HKO'ed)
Therefore Kabutops satisfies the OC <-> Therefore Aggron satisfies the OC

I'm assuming the (unnamed) Aggron counter doesn't have reliable recovery since Head Smash and Stone Edge are both physical, rock attacks and so should have the same counter. I'm also assuming that being able to beat stall means a Pokemon satisfies the OC - after all, that's what happened to Gallade.

 

[Ekanselttar]

That log is an amazing success, considering who the opponent is. ShinyAzelf just rips apart the Sunny Day team that I've used with great success on the ladder. I'd be excited to lose 1-0 to him.

 

[Lemmiwinks MkII]

I'd consider Altaria, it sets up Rain Dance, has access to Heal Bell, and learns Safeguard. It's also a decent Venusaur counter, and can force switches via Perish Song to ensure your sweepers get in safe.

Uxie has the same three moves, can outpace Venusaurs, and has a much stronger STAB to hit them with. It can also force switches with Yawn if you're into that kind of thing.

 

[shrang]

So, after not actually using a Rain team myself for quite a while, I decided to mess around with one. I've found putting Sub on Offensive Special Ludicolo is great. It really eases your prediction. Yes, I know Life Orb and Substitute would make Ludicolo die really, really quickly, but while you are there, you can really give them hell. At the moment, I've been running Sub/Focus Punch/Surf/Energy Ball, so it does lose out coverage on Venusaur and stuff like that (Although Surf still does about 40% in the rain). With a Sub up, you don't have to predict Chansey on the switch, instead you can hit her whenever you want, provided your Sub stays up.

EDIT: Just joking here, but

Send Kabutops in on Chansey <-> Send Aggron in on Chansey
SPAM STONE EDGE <-> SPAM CHOICE BANDED HEAD SMASH
Eventually their butops counter dies due to no recovery <-> Eventually their Aggron counter dies due to no recovery (or in Tangrowth's case, gets 2HKO'ed)
Therefore Kabutops satisfies the OC <-> Therefore Aggron satisfies the OC

Aggron got nominated as Suspect (Even though they were LOLable nominations)

 

[franky]

@ Heysup

The way I see it, its ultimately just a matter of your opinion now. The things we are discussing are not facts anymore. If you truly feel like Kabutops is the "culprit" of rain, I respect that. However, I already explained my views on sweepers that are equally "broken" as Kabutops under rain. Its just a matter of opinion now because Kabutops is a not a clear-cut broken subject at the moment because many people who use rain on a daily basis feel like its actually a group of sweepers. I'm p. sure you don't use rain as much as someone like FlareBlitz, who has more experience with rain. Think of it like this: FlareBlitz has enough SEXP to actually vote rain, while you don't have enough experience and your just theorymoning a lot of your posts. Again, this is assuming you don't play rain, which is why I encourage you to actually ladder with a formidable rain team. This way, you can actually form arguments that are not one-sided, because a number of prolific rain users think that its actually not Kabutops. Maybe if you ladder with a rain team, your views might change. Just a suggestion.

 

[capefeather]

SPAM STONE EDGE <-> SPAM CHOICE BANDED HEAD SMASH

Here. CB Aggron/Rhyperior/whatever have limited options compared to Kabutops. Additionally, Rain's opponent has to react differently depending on whether the Rain user is setting up or attacking. I mean, sure, you can send someone in to take a Stone Edge, but what if Kabutops says "lolSDWaterfall" instead? It will most definitely be faster than you, easing its prediction far more than if you tried to catch Donphan on the switch with CB Aggron Aqua Tail or something. There's a reason that Kabutops is so effective and Choice Banders aren't quite as effective. You have to look beyond the action itself and look at the risk factors and long-term (hell, even short-term) consequences.