While Zardx is certainly threatening, it doesn't compare at all with megaluke.
1. There is a huge difference between 100 base speed and 112 base speed. While it may not seem much, there are a lot of relevant pokemon on the 100-110 range (the latis, gengar, infernape, manetric, garchomp, etc... not to mention tying with all the +speed base 100 if you are + speed or losing to them if you are + Atk). Charizard needs a dragon dance to outrun a lot of things that megalucario simply outruns.
2. Raw damage output is much lower. 130/130 is less than 140/145. Tough claws 1.33 is less than Adaptability and x1.5 boost from dragon dance is much less than x2 from sword-dance/nasty plot.
3. Charizard has worse moves. Lucario has acces to 120 BP close combat and a ton of great coverage moves. Charizard's fire move kills him with recoil (I have killed a weakened zard just by switching my chansey into the flareblitz. The funny thing is that eviolite chansey actually survives. Also charizard lacks priority. This is relevant against stuff like talonflame, which can die to +2 ES after SR.
4. Charizard is not hard to predict. The biggest surprise you are getting from Zard is maybe a will o wisp. With lucario, there is usually no way to tell if it is physical or special, much less which coverage moves (or priority) he will carry.
5. The biggest problem, by far, is the one you mentioned yourself. Charizards absolutely needs rock off the field, or else it will be taking 50% in the switch in and 25% if it switches out again. Lucario is 4x RESITANT to SR on the other hand. Keeping rocks reliably off the field is not as easy to do as you think against a good player. SR only takes a turn to set up and many different pokemon can set them.
There is really no comparison. All charizard has is better typing and somewhat better bulk (which doesnt matter a lot when you are taking 50% from SR and your moves have recoil)
That aside, I don't think I willl be trying to get a vote because 1700 is just way too much in the OU ladder, and it would be a lot of work even if I was able to do it. You guys realize you pretty much have to get into the top 40, right? And there are like, what, 10000 different users, or more? Thats like putting the vote in the hands of the top 2%. I understand smogon doesn't want complete noobs voting on this issue, and demanding a high rating to vote is a way to err on the safe side, but reaching the top 40 of OU seems like an overkill to me.
Anyway, if we were to judge merely from the responses in this thread, is clear that lucario will get a ban, deoxys will not, and genesect is the only pokemon on which people are divided, with more people leaning on the ban side.
As I've already said twice, my opinion is not carved in stone since I'm more than doubtful about MegaLuke. When I posted I was 70% no ban-30% ban. Now I'm testing it with some friends and I'm 55%-45% (or maybe 51-49% lol). But, since you've give me more food for thoughts, why not discussing? If the crowd doesn't mind reading, I'll say in a short statement at the end why I'm comparing Megaluke and ZardX. And, just to clarify, I find them equally scary because my usual team struggles more against Luke, but I think Luke is slightly better than ZardX
1. That's true, but Lucario has 90 base speed on the first turn, which is far worse than base 100 (there's literally half of the pokedex between +90 and +100 lol). One could argue that this point is not valid because of the three priority moves Luke has access to, but the fact that, or you come in on something slower to megaevolve (that applies to Charizard too) or you're forced to use priority. This means you have to sacrifice basically 50%/66% of your power on the turn you megaevolve (yes, that's the difference between vacuum wave/flash cannon-aurasphere and BP-Espeed/CC, and the difference is insane: something can come in to take priority and forcing you out: Aegislash for example). Obviously you aren't coming in something that will survive priority and outright kill Luke, but that's something that hinders Luke. I do understand that this is kind of a weak point since it all comes down to prediction, and prediction isn't about the ability of the Pokemon itself, but of the player. Yes, ZardX has to DD to solve this, but this also frees him of some Revenge killers that Lucario will have trouble with after the very likely first kill (Scarfchomp would still be a problem, but he's for both). Megaluke will never have the edge over <100 scarfers unless they're severly weakened or they have a crippling fighting/steel weakness.
2. Well, that's one way of reading their offensive prowess. On the other side, one could say that ZardX has 180 stab moves backed up by 130 atk and Tough claws boost. This kind of damage output is beaten only by two luke moves: CC and Focus Blast (have you ever seen that?) His coverage moves, though backed up by priority half of the time, haven't that sheer output (Crunch, BP, Espeed aren't even close, they don't even reach Earthquake, the most common ZardX coverage move, Flash Cannon is close, Shadow Ball and Dark Pulse aren't). The boosting moves are, simply, different moves. DDance has that huge +1speed which is, as I've said, huge. Less power, but also less Revenge-killable (what have I just written?).
3. Idk. Lucario has all the tools to succeed, but hasn't the sheer power of that double stab. I find MegaLuke easier to scare out than Xzard once it has set up. Basically, a fighting resist/immunity scare him out at +2. I find Xzard to be more of a problem because of the enhanced speed. But maybe I'm just biased cause I tipically run both Aegislash and AV goodra. Priority is a bitch late game, I'll give you that.
4. I disagree. You know why I find Zard the closest and most suited comparison? ZardY. Good luck eating SunBoosted Fire Blast and his coverage moves if you predict wrong. Yes, maybe its easier to predict which Zard you're facing thanks to team preview, and to do the same against Luke is an harder task. But bluffing is right there for Charizard as for Luke. Today I had six wi-fi battles (to tell the truth, one was a full uber team in the hand of someone who wasn't clearly knowing what he was doing). In four of them I faced Tyranitar. I had made up a vintage team just to have fun, which core was a spinning defensive Blastoise, a Venusaur acting as annoyer and status, and ZardX. Basically everyone thought that was ZardY. TTar came out 4 times out of 4 as I was faking solarbeam. just to be EQed to death. This just to clarify that even ZardX is unpredictable. Not as Luke, ok, but that's why Luke is imho slightly better.
5. I completely agree, as I've clarified in my first post.
Bulk and that insane typing is something, though, especially if you use Flare Blitz the least possible.
Just to (hopefully) say something that has somewhat of a meaning after all this blabbering. (This is actually a quote from a Japanese manga lol) "A little stone can beat a highly crafted weapon, if it is launched by a master of combat". Imho, ZardX and MLuke are a very good sword and a great sword. MKhan was a nuclear bomb in comparison. MKhan is in another league. Zard X isn't better than Luke, Luke is stronger, but is probably in the same league. So, if ZardX is perfectly fine in OU, why ban something that's close to him? In short, to me, there's not that big difference, if Mluke and ZardX are used by two players of the same level.
As I've stated, this is my opinion and is probably biased by both my lack of experience and the fact that my team is weaker to MegaLuke than to Xzard, but this is my opinion. Ok, after reading all the posts coming as I was writing this, I'm officially now 50-50