Metagame The Preview Dilemma

[Stellar]

Introduction
Whether you're clicking Find Battle on Pokémon Showdown or on your Switch, we've all experienced that moment of adrenaline-pumping panic when the team preview screen pops up. If that wasn't bad enough, Scarlet and Violet cranked the stakes up to 10 with the introduction of Tera Types, making the decision of which three Pokémon to bring that much more complicated. The purpose of this thread is to dive a little bit more deeply into the psychology of the pick-3 team selection process.

How Do I Participate?
Each round, I will post a pokepast.es containing full details for the Player's team (the team you are using in this hypothetical scenario) and a screenshot of the opponent's team as it would appear on the team preview screen. Your job is to pick your lead, to pick the other two Pokémon you would bring to battle, and to explain your choices. You may copy and paste the following questions to format your answer if you wish.

• My Lead:​
• Lead Reasoning:​
• My Second Pokémon:​
• Second Pokémon Reasoning:​
• My Third Pokémon:​
• Third Pokémon Reasoning:​
• Pokémon I Excluded:​
• Exclusion Reasoning:​

It would be awesome if you could also give a little insight into your "philosophy" regarding team selection in general, but that's not a requirement!

Round 1:
You begin searching for a battle using this team: https://pokepast.es/445231aaa9045f7c

The team preview screen loads, and this is what you see...

Who do you pick?

 

[Aqua Jet]

Disclaimer: this is a lot and I might change my opinion later because I'm tired right now

Right away, I feel it is necessary to (attempt to) disern my opponents sets. I think that Iron Bundle is Booster Energy that will boost its Speed stat, since that looks fine on this type of team and allows Flutter Mane to hit hard with Life Orb or Choice Specs. However, it is not impossible that Theorymon has instead opted for a Choice Specs Iron Bundle set with Speed-boosting Booster Energy Flutter Mane. I'm going to assume Heatran is a Stealth Rock set, since I honestly think Rocks are super useful in BSS and its the only thing that has access to the move on his team. I wouldn't be surprised if this Thundurus-Therian set is Choice Specs or Assault Vest, as there are better speed control options on his team. Regarding which of these it is, I honestly don't know, as both have merit on this type of build. I'm inclined to assume Assault Vest because I feel his team lacks a strong Electric-Type answer (which Assault Vest Thundurus-Therian can blanket check). Urshifu is probably Puching Glove or Sash, both seem fine on this team. I'm inclined to assume Focus Sash because this team has mostly Special Attackers, meaning that Pokémon carrying Rocky Helmet or with the Rough Skin ability become a lot less useful into it, and as a result would not be Theorymon's opponent's first choice to bring into the Battle. In summary, I assume the team looks something like this.

My Lead:
Lead Reasoning: While Stealth Rock isn't too useful into this team, Ting-Lu can Whirlwind an Iron Bundle lead (albeit it will need to tera to do so, but its worth not letting Iron Bundle get a free Substitute) and can also prevent Dragon Dance Dragonite from sweeping with Whrilwind until late-game. Furthermore, Ting-Lu would force Heatran to burn its Tera, and even then Heatran doesn't particularly want to eat several Ruinations.
My Second Pokémon:
Second Pokémon Reasoning: Speed control + something that beats Dragon Dance Dragonite? Yes please! Multiscale shouldn't be that difficult to break, as worst case scenario you sacrifice Urshifu-Rapid-Strike to break it. If they stay in and Dragon Dance, then great! They'll be forced to either Extreme Speed or Tera Blast Flying you next turn (as they would fear Ice Punch), not allowing them the oppertunity to use Roost. In addition, Flutter Mane should also be able to take care of Iron Bundle, which poses a huge threat to the team as we lack a Pokémon that would otherwise be able to beat it.
My Third Pokémon:
Third Pokémon Reasoning: As I mentioned above, Urshifu-Rapid-Strike's priority can save the team in a pinch. In addition, it resists Magma Storm and can pick off a weakened Heatran without forcing Flutter Mane to, as Flutter Mane doesn't want to be Taunted. Furthermore, it outspeeds a decent number of Pokémon on Theorymon's team, which means it can deal big damage with Close Combat.
Pokémon I Excluded: , ,
Exclusion Reasoning:

While it could Spore something, Amoonguss is at risk of Iron Bundle setting up a Substitute freely on its Spore attempt, which is a 50/50 I'd like to avoid because it is, in my opinion, disadvantageous to the Amoonguss user. Furthermore, with Thundurus-Therian, Dragonite, and Flutter Mane on Theorymon's team, Amoonguss can become a huge liability. I think there is a little merit to bringing it, as it will hard stop any Urshifu-Rapid-Strike variant not carrying Ice Punch (which I think is the case here, as personally I'd run Swords Dance on this team assuming my prior assumptions about Theorymon's team are correct), but that merit is overshadowed by the cost of using one of my 3 slots for it.

It doesn't really beat anything on Theorymon's team, except for Dragonite assuming it's a Bulky Dragon Dance set.

Other Pokémon are just more valuble into this matchup.

 

[Malicious Muffin]

• My Lead:
• Lead Reasoning: It wins every single match up
• My Second Pokémon:
• Second Pokémon Reasoning: It's a good switch against thundurus and heatran. You might want to phase out dragonite.
• My Third Pokémon:
• Third Pokémon Reasoning: it does something
• Pokémon I Excluded:
• Exclusion Reasoning: :

Loses to Thundurus-T, Punching Glove/Pads Urshifu, Heatran and Fluttermane. High liability against this team


Ting-lu is a much better wall against here and Heatran easily becomes set up bait for most pokemon on the opponents team. High liability


Same as above, he's just set up bait against most of the team. All of your opponents pokemon are faster than you and a lot of them can run sub as an option to stop spore. Leafstorm only has value against Urshifu.

 

[DragonWhale]

The first thing I see on the other team is the Bundle, which is a huge threat to this team. When thinking about the team's options against it the best combination seemed to be Zapdos + Flutter Mane. Zapdos can survive non-specs Freeze-Dry and OHKO with Volt Switch, and the event that it is specs Flutter Mane can come in and set up a CM and be in an insanely good position. Amoonguss lives non-specs Freeze-Dry too, but booster usually have some kind of support move that ruins Amoonguss, like substitute and encore.

• My Lead:
• Lead Reasoning: Can Twave the Flutter and Volt Switch against the rest. Hard switch Ting-Lu after if the opponent goes Thund
• My Second Pokémon:
• Second Pokémon Reasoning: Can sweep with CM if Bundle is specs, survive VS opposing Flutter after CM
• My Third Pokémon:
• Third Pokémon Reasoning: Thund switch-in, then rocks go up. Also good vs Heatran to make things easier for Flutter
• Pokémon I Excluded:
• Exclusion Reasoning: only functions as a sash bluff in the lead slot. Even then the opponent has a Dragonite so they can opt to try to bring Urshifu down to sash and espeed it away, in which case Urshifu will just die. Or just simply go straight Dragonite and find out Urshifu cannot beat it. can likely Spore something but otherwise it doesn't really accomplish much. is decent but probably not as good as the three picked.

 

[NOVED]

In team preview I usually start with a lead then think of the game flow from there. Against this team, i don't really like zapdos/heatran core because of the bundle & thund, they both tear that apart. But because tmons team is a lot faster than ours, I don't like going shifu & flutter mane both because we're probably gonna lose that type of matchup just based off speed, his offensive stuff is all faster than shifu. So i'm using amoonguss/ting lu to pivot around as i need to & get chip, & try to use flutter mane to pick off weakened mons.

• My Lead: Amoonguss
• Lead Reasoning: I can get off spore or pivot. Against heatran or thund t, i'll probably go straight to ting lu. I can tank a freeze dry & leaf storm bundle(might consider poping tera there too, depends if booster or not) then go flutter mane if they went for sub/had sash. Amoonguss will be useful mid game so i wanna make sure i dont sack it at the lead, i want to spore/foul play dnite.
• My Second Pokémon: Ting-Lu
• Second Pokémon Reasoning: tera flying thund t and heatran are threats to amoonguss turn 1, ting lu can pivot into those nicely, ww or rocks, or even ruination chip, it'll all be helpful. when shifu or dnite come in i have amoonguss as an option, then i can threaten spore again. because of sleep this core could be annoying for the opp.
• My Third Pokémon: Flutter Mane
• Third Pokémon Reasoning: basically my finisher, maybe will be needed to take something out mid game too. im hoping late game i have flutter mane + at least one of ting lu/amoong to finish off a team of weakened and sleeping pokemon. DD roost dnite can be scary, i cant be too confident, dnite can surprsingly beat mane 1v1 with tera normal pretty often, so trying to keep amoonguss healthy is gonna be important to get off spore on it. having tera water & also ting lu makes me pretty confident if they pick heatran as well.
• Pokémon I Excluded:
• Exclusion Reasoning: urshifu i felt was too slow for this matchup, it doesnt offer the bulk & utility the other mons do. zapdos really the thund is just too much here for me to want to bring it, even if i was tempted to utilize helmet & vswitch against dnite/shifu. im also scared of DD roost normal dnite just ending up as the last mon & beating everything, so i wanted amoong instead of zap since i can at least spore & foul play/clear smog. heatran i just think doesnt offer as much as ting & amoong do in this matchup, they can go dnite & theres not a lot i can do there. amoong & ting lu can sleep, pivot, set up rocks, ww, just more useful imo.

Not sure exactly how the game plan would play out, the matchup looks kinda scary i think. But with amoong & ting lu, there's so much utility that you have a lot of options to play with. And flutter mane is great here, you just need to figure out how to set it up as the game goes. When amoong gets in on anything that doesn't immediately threaten it, like shifu or dnite, some flutter mane sets, getting off spore will be big. If dnite is tera blast flying instead of tera normal espeed, that might screw up my gameplan, but between ting lu/mane its probably not impossible.

 

[Photon]

So first, let me analyze what I'm working with. I see three defensive-focused mons, with two possessing pivot moves and the other with Whirlwind which also works for getting better positioning. Looking at the other three, we have two mons with setup (Swords Dance and Booster Energy) as well as a trapper (Magma Storm + Protect) for a more attrition-based offense. In other words, this a pivot/positioning style team meant to wear down and eventually position something to clean up.

SELECTION PROCESS:

Now let's look at the opposing team. First thing that pops out to me is the Thundurus-T on the other side, which will be a problem for Zapdos. I don't really have a good Thundurus-T answer here: Ting-Lu blocks Volt Switch but gets chunked hard by Grass Knot, and Heatran is susceptible to Volt Switch momentum. With that in mind, Zapdos is out.

Lead :
Second :
Third :
Bench :

So here, I see a good opportunity to start with a lead + fallback pairing. If I go with Amoonguss as my designated cushion, then I should be pretty good to lead Heatran. The two things that Heatran won't want to see are Urshifu-R and EQ Dragonite from the lead, both of which Amoonguss should comfortably be able to switch into at least once. Urshifu U-Turn could be problematic from the lead since I will be leary to Protect scout in such a situation, but its far from an autoloss.

Lead :
Second :
Third :
Bench :

So now I want a designated ace. I think Flutter Mane makes the most sense here. Between Tera Water and Calm Mind for the mirror, Booster Flutter Mane looks really strong here as the lategame cleaner. Even Thundy who can take neutral hits well isn't necessarily safe with Calm Mind in the wings.

Lead :
Second :
Third :
Bench :

 

[DerpySuX]

LEAD
Heatran has the most positive or neutral matchups here. When accounting for tera, it can go one on one with Iron Bundle and Urshifu, assuming it’s Water shifu. In the event of a Heatran mirror, I can protect in order to scout the opposing Heatran’s intentions and go from there.

SECOND
Zapdos provides a good amount of defensive utility here, Thunder Wave and Volt Switch out if need be. Rocky Helmet + Static will help against the opposing Urshifu should it be a choiced set or otherwise not using glove/pads. Hurricane also provides good damage output in the event of tera grass Heatran.

THIRD
One Heatran and Zapdos have worn down or otherwise forced the opponent into a vulnerable situation, Calm Mind Flutter Mane is the best option to clean up here. Saving Tera for this will allow it to go one on one with Urshifu R if needed, such as if it happens to be Glove or Pads and as such isn’t as threatened by Zapdos.

EXCLUSUONS
While hazard support is worth considering, imo it is a bit too passive against such an aggressive team, and will be fodder for things like Encore Dragonite/Iron Bundle. It would have to use its teams tera to not lose to Urshifu-R as well, and it would only be able to stop it once with whirlwind, Urshifu is free to come back in and boost again, and it would be very difficult for this team to stop in that case.

The presence of Heatran and Iron Bundle make Amoonguss a bit of a liability here. Heatran can beat Amoonguss quite handily with Tera Grass or Taunt. Amoonguss does not have any sort of way to hit Heatran outside of foul play, and Leaf Storm’s limited PP and SpA halving effect would make it somewhat of a risky gambit against a potentially subbing Iron Bundle as well, and that’s not accounting for the move’s imperfect accuracy.

When accounting for common Teras, Urshifu just doesn’t offer a very consistent damage output, and is liable to be stopped in its tracks by Iron Bundle, Thundurus-T and even tera grass Heatran. The Urshifu mirror is not something I would bet the game on either. Flutter Mane offers much more consistency with proper support, and is the superior choice of the two for the teams offensive workhorse.

 

[Bachy]

This is brilliant I love this thread! Such a great idea.