Taking all bets on how long it takes to fail this time.
On a more serious note, does anyone expect anything useful out of this? The simple act of marginalizing Hamas has already made any results dubious. Hard-liners on both sides are going to try their hardest to sabotage any compromises. Bush, Olmert, and Abbas are all fighting poor domestic approval ratings. Skepticism runs high among all the Arab nations (not to mention everyone else). The Middle East is in turmoil thanks to the US.
On the other hand, there is one hope - that people are tired after 60 years of fighting. The Arab League already has offered Israel an opportunity for peace (based on Israel's willingness to return to the pre-1967 borders). I think people on both sides are sick of being killed and would relish an opportunity to see a peace agreement.
Ultimately, in order for this to succeed, a lot of this is going to rest on Israel, who is going to be charged with making a majority of the concessions. Unfortunately, after the fiascoes created by the withdrawal from Gaza and most of the West Bank that gave rise to Hamas and missile attacks, the hard-liners are not interested in seeing more avenues for attacks open up. The success, then, depends upon the rest of the world, who must be willing to provide insurance to Israel if more militants spring up.
I think the best way for this to work is for other powers to provide assistance. Thanks to Bush, the Arab world has no real faith in the United States to act as a neutral assistant - I'd bet anything they are sure (and probably right) that, given a sudden problem, the US sides with Israel. If powers like the European Union, Russia, and China promised to help broker this, it would likely give the Arab world a bit more faith that their needs will be recognized.
On a more serious note, does anyone expect anything useful out of this? The simple act of marginalizing Hamas has already made any results dubious. Hard-liners on both sides are going to try their hardest to sabotage any compromises. Bush, Olmert, and Abbas are all fighting poor domestic approval ratings. Skepticism runs high among all the Arab nations (not to mention everyone else). The Middle East is in turmoil thanks to the US.
On the other hand, there is one hope - that people are tired after 60 years of fighting. The Arab League already has offered Israel an opportunity for peace (based on Israel's willingness to return to the pre-1967 borders). I think people on both sides are sick of being killed and would relish an opportunity to see a peace agreement.
Ultimately, in order for this to succeed, a lot of this is going to rest on Israel, who is going to be charged with making a majority of the concessions. Unfortunately, after the fiascoes created by the withdrawal from Gaza and most of the West Bank that gave rise to Hamas and missile attacks, the hard-liners are not interested in seeing more avenues for attacks open up. The success, then, depends upon the rest of the world, who must be willing to provide insurance to Israel if more militants spring up.
I think the best way for this to work is for other powers to provide assistance. Thanks to Bush, the Arab world has no real faith in the United States to act as a neutral assistant - I'd bet anything they are sure (and probably right) that, given a sudden problem, the US sides with Israel. If powers like the European Union, Russia, and China promised to help broker this, it would likely give the Arab world a bit more faith that their needs will be recognized.
