Announcement SV National Dex UU Stage 6.2 - In My Nikes (Cinderace Suspect Test)

[Arishem]

As outlined previously, our next suspect test nominates an offender as effectively striking as it has been accurately prevalent on our radar, needless to say.​

Suspect Reasoning
Cinderace has been a particularly polarizing presence for a few months now, boasting an unmatched offensive proficiency that remains extremely hard to take on. Alongside its excellent Speed tier, its ability Libero, while dampened in counterclaim to the overt nature of power creep featured throughout Gen 9, still allows it to function as an effective striker, further bolstering the power of its coverage moves. In particular, all of Sucker Punch, Gunk Shot, and High Jump Kick can easily make their way onto traditional offensive sets, which allow it to easily plough through most defensive Pokemon used to withstand its archetype, like Clefable, Tapu Fini, or Mega Tyranitar, to where only very few answers can reliably handle it at all. Additionally, the current metagame is also offensively oriented to the extent common teammates like Hydreigon and Thundurus-T can easily pile on the advantage set in motion by Cinderace’s powerful and easily spammable U-turn against the aforementioned defensive pivots. Combine that with other nifty tools in Will-O-Wisp and Taunt to mess up specific checks long-term, such as Skeledirge and Mandibuzz, and you have a Pokemon whose contributions to the tier, particularly in the direction which its dynamic pushes the metagame into, as a major topic of concern lately.

Beyond the aforementioned list of defensive checks, it is also worth noting that thanks to Heavy-Duty Boots, Cinderace itself is also very hard to wear down in conjunction with the traits mentioned earlier, to the extent that we’ve also been seeing the use of items on Pokemon that would otherwise prefer different options, most notably Rocky Helmet on the likes of Hippowdon and Toxapex, who’d otherwise prefer Boots or Leftovers/Black Sludge to more consistently pivot into Pokemon also worthy of being checked, such as Iron Moth and Aegislash. However, the reliance of these tactics is also unreliable to the extent most Cinderace teams can easily play around these if need be, most notably through aggressive switching and/or Knock Off support.

Additionally, recent tiering changes, such as the banning of Ceruledge and Meowscarada, also opened up further circumstances of exploration indirectly beneficial to Cinderace. Most notably Swords Dance has also shown itself to be more than capable in its own right, with Z-Crystals such as Normalium Z giving it ample opportunity to double down on its aforementioned counters, namely regarding the ability to immediately break down physically defensive walls such as Hippowdon and Slowbro with minimal chip required, while also possessing very strong priority that allows it to overwhelm faster threats such as Zeraora and weakened Mega Aerodactyl.

Nevertheless, it can be argued that the aforementioned defensive counterplay is still sufficient enough to hold in tandem - among the full list of Pokemon capable of withstanding Cinderace include Hippowdon, Gastrodon, Rotom-W, Toxapex, Skeledirge, and more situationally, physically defensive Clefable, Ting-Lu, Iron Hands, Mega Tyranitar, Mandibuzz, and Tapu Fini, alongside faster Pokemon that can outspeed and threaten to KO it through its frailty on non-pivot sets, such as Choice Scarfers like Galarian Zapdos and Hydreigon. While Cinderace does have the tools to break past many of these answers, these issues are easily exasperated by the opportunity costs that come with each moveset choice and the difficulties that come with positioning some of them, with said defensive pivots being more than capable of scouting these options for their teams if need be, which can leave it to struggle in certain matchups.



Suspect Test Information

• Reading this is mandatory to participate in the suspect test. The voting requirements are a minimum GXE of 79 with at least 40 games played. In addition, you may play 1 less game for every 0.2 GXE you have above 79 GXE, down to a minimum of 20 games at a GXE of 83. Also, needing more than 40 games to reach 79 GXE will suffice.

Minimum games needed

GXE	minimum games
79	40
79.2	39
79.4	38
79.6	37
79.8	36
80	35
80.2	34
80.4	33
80.6	32
80.8	31
81	30
81.2	29
81.4	28
81.6	27
81.8	26
82	25
82.2	24
82.4	23
82.6	22
82.8	21
83	20

• You must use a fresh account that begins with the given prefix for this suspect test. That prefix is NDUU9ACE. For example, I could signup and qualify with the name NDUU9ACE Arishem.
• You may not impersonate or mock another user with your account name. If there is any slight hesitation, you're probably better off picking a different name. We reserve the right to null your voting requisites if you are found impersonating or mocking another user with your account name. Moderator discretion will be applied.
• If you are found trying to manipulate voting requisites in any way, you will be met with a harsh infraction. Manipulating voting requisites ranges from faking your screenshot to asking another user to forfeit.
• The Pokemon that's being suspect tested, Cinderace, will be allowed on the National Dex UU ladder for the next two weeks so that we can properly assess its position in the metagame.

This suspect test will go on for 2 weeks. It will last until February the 18th at 11:59 PM GMT-4.

 

[Danbear02]

If the Iron Moth suspect taught me anything, its that the existence of defensive counterplay makes it likely that people will vote DNB. Cinderace has hypothetical defensive counterplay, but I want to go over every single Cinderace check or counter and discuss why it isn't, and why Cinderace should be banned for being overbearing in battle and in the teambuilder.

First, lets discuss what moves Ace is most likely to run. Pyro Ball and U-turn are mandatory on every set, as they provide a strong STAB move with a great offensive type, and a pivot move that becomes STAB thanks to Cinderace's Libero ability turning Cinderace into the type the first non-Fire move used each time it switches in. Gunk Shot is most commonly seen as the next move, eliminating a few checks and providing another strong STAB option that can also cripple some counters with poison. High Jump Kick is the strongest move Ace can run and easily OHKO's Mega Tyranitar and provides higher neutral damage if necessary. Cinderace can also run Court Change to move hazards, Will-O-Wisp to cripple certain physical attackers, and Sucker Punch for strong priority from an already fast mon. Cinderace can also opt for Swords Dance and Double Edge with Normalium Z on Hyper Offense or Offense builds, though these suffer from being revenged by most Scarfers as well as a lack of power after using up the Z Move. However, SD Cinderace can almost always trade for at least 1 mon.

The reason Cinderace is so broken is because U-Turn allows it to create progress from thin air. Because Ace forces so many switches, it is often free to U-turn on the defensive answers that are brought in, most often or , which allows teammates to abuse these passive defensive mons. With most mons in the meta forced to use Heavy Duty Boots given the tier's lack of great hazard removal, Cinderace is hard to touch, as it outspeeds most if not all of the relevant threats. Sucker Punch eliminates some of what little offensive counterplay there is to Ace as well, removing some Choice Scarfers like Latios. Most Scarfers are unable to even switch in to Ace given they are terrified of U-turn or Pyro Ball.

Anyways, lets get to the "defensive counterplay". The most splashable check to Ace is . It resists all of Pyro Ball, Gunk Shot, High Jump Kick, and U-turn and has Regenerator to keep up with U-turn chip. However, not only can Cinderace use Zen Headbutt to 2HKO all but the bulkiest Toxapex, but it's Normalium Z set completely flips the matchup, with +2 Breakneck Blitz OHKOing even Max Max Toxapex. While both of these options are rare, it does highlight how Ace can beat most of if not all of its checks, and given only Pyro Ball and U-turn are really necessary to be threatening, Zen Headbutt can be slotted on teams with limited offensive pressure against Toxapex.

The next check people mention is . While Slowbro's bulk allows it to handle Pyro Ball, Gunk Shot, and High Jump Kick, it is notably weak to U-Turn. Given that Cinderace loves to click U-turn, being weak to that move isn't great, and unfortunately Slowbro does not heal more with Regenerator, given that U-turn does 35-45 percent. Slowbro is also weak to Volt Switch, which is often found on offensive teams alongside Cinderace to maintain momentum.

is likely the most reliable Cinderace check, resisting all of its common moves and sets except the easily defeated Sucker Punch. However, Skeledirge is weak to , which is arguably one of the best mons in the tier. Allowing free entry or a free Pursuit trap isn't great, and if Skeledirge gets its knocked off, it becomes an awful check.

, , and are also decent checks, but suffer from either the inability to keep up with U-Turn damage due to being forced to run Heavy Duty Boots, or losing in the long term with Hazards up if they opt for Leftovers. These options also leave them unable to damage Cinderace if it keeps U-turning out on them, leaving the users of these defensive options even further behind.

, , and are all checks that lose to common coverage Cinderace runs, being Gunk Shot or High Jump Kick. If the Cinderace has been identified to be lacking these coverage moves, then these become reliable checks, but are still liable to being worn down by U-Turn and/or Pyro Ball.

, , and all lack reliable recovery and are therefore extremely susceptible to U-turn as well as alternative options, such as Will-O-Wisp and High Jump Kick.

As previously mentioned, offensive counterplay is also limited, given Cinderace naturally outspeeds everything outside of and Sand Rush , so only Choice Scarfers can outspeed Cinderace. Even with no investment, Cinderace can live attacks like Close Combat and Dark Pulse, and neither like switching into U-Turn or Pyro Ball.


A question many people pose is, "If Cinderace is broken because it U-turns on everything, why is every other U-Turn mon not broken?" The main reason is that we have great counterplay for U-Turn mons in and . Unfortunately, Cinderace hits both Super-Effectively with Pyro Ball, which invalidates them as checks. Scizor and Zapdos-Galar are balanced for those reasons, as are many other mons that learn pivot moves. However, when a mon is this fast, naturally powerful, and has enough coverage to hit essentially the entire metagame, U-turn is just the cherry on top that makes it broken.

Most Cinderaces are not Zen Headbutt. Toxapex and Slowbro are usually decent answers into Cinderace, and Cinderace's teammates can be played around. But as someone in the NatDex UU chat on Showdown said very well, "I don't want to be forced to run these mons on all my teams." Some playstyles can't handle Ace, and most can't in the long term. It wears down almost all of its checks, and is incredibly hard to wear down itself. Just because defensive counterplay exists, doesn't mean a mon isn't broken. Moth was (and is) broken because it forced certain checks onto every team. Cinderace is doing the same thing.

I will be voting Ban on Cinderace. I encourage others to do so as well, but am willing to hear counterarguments. Good luck with reqs!

 

[TBIC106]

Mainly making this post to agree with Danbear02 above.

That said, need to not be a one liner, so I'd like to talk about the offensive counterplay to Cinderace, which is the other major component of any argument on tiering.

First, let's establish speed tiering. Cinderace sits at a comfortable base 119 speed, which is faster than almost everything else in the tier, notably beating out Latios, Latias and non-booster speed Iron Moth. The only potential non-scarfed or otherwise boosted pokemon that can outrun this thing are Mega Aerodactyl, M̶͈̣̭͕̹͇͈͉̳̩̆̈́̈͐̋̆̄̒̎́͊̅̕̕͠ę̵̼̩͓̥̞͖͍͕̐̊͗͑̋͐̒͋̽͆̐͑͝ͅg̸̝̻͖̘͈͕̪͒́̔̇̏̓ͅa̵̛̛͖̙̞̻̝͕̫̐̀̑̆͑̿̈́͊̋͝ ̷̛̹̟̠̰͒̃̄̑̾̅͋́̄̕͝B̷͈̜̦̀̊̈̒e̶̢̲̲̼̹̣̍̈́́̌͆͌̅̈͗͘͝ȩ̴͎̻̰̬̪͇͙̑͌̇́̓̀͒̑͐̏̒̑̈́̋̇ḑ̷̻̮̗̠͐͌̃̎ṙ̷̡͉̳̦͙͖̞͇͕̰̤̪̯̈́̑͘ì̷̧̘̰͕̤͔̒́̈ļ̸̨̢̺̝͙̠̯̲͍̇̉̇́̓ͅļ̶̙͎̞̥̱͉͛̐͗͋́̃̅͂͋̐̈͗̂͘, Zeraora and Alakazam. Niche HO leads, like base Aerodactyl and Ribombee, can also outrun it, but tend to die long before Cinderace hits the field. Of these potential checks, Mega Aerodactyl is the only semi-splashable answer, while Zeraora is significantly more niche and Alakazam either finds use on the occasional HO or on some sand structures. Following this, Cinderace can also be checked with scarfers, though as always we are relatively limited in what scarfers are commonly used. Enamorus, WashTom and Tapu Fini. More niche options, such as Zapdos-Galar, Keldeo and Latias can also be used, though they struggle to find a place on most teams. A final mention here is made to Iron Hands, which can stomach multiple Pyro Balls and even the potential Zen Headbutt once, while threatening back with a Drain Punch that can secure an OHKO on banded sets, and Booster Speed Iron Moth, which can stomach everything except Zen Headbutt from Cinderace and 2HKO with Sludge Wave.

Now let's dive into each of these options. Of the unboosted variants, only Mega Aerodactyl can hope to come in on Pyro Ball and not be immediately in range of a follow up Sucker Punch. Not damning, since these are offensive checks, but it certainly hinders their ability to do anything. Similarly, neither Zeraora nor Alakazam are able to threaten back with an OHKO, meaning that Cinderace is able to potentially sack health to just kill these checks itself. As if to add insult to injury, even Mega Aerodactyl has flaws due to its stealth rock weakness, making it incredibly easy for Cinderace to force it in and chip it down over the course of a game using U-Turn. So we're left with Mega Aerodactyl as the only real option of these three, and even that's heavily limited.

Next, the splashable scarfers. Of Enamorus, WashTom and Tapu Fini, only WashTom is able to switch in on Gunk Shot, limiting both Enamorus and Tapu Fini since Gunk Shot is the most common coverage Cinderace uses. All three of these mons are able to secure OHKOs in revenge, with Earth Power on Enamorus and Hydro Pump for WashTom and Enamorus, though Enamorus' Earth Power is only a 6% roll to OHKO from full, meaning the Cinderace can gamble on a stay in to potentially take a kill if Enamorus is a major issue for its team. Similarly, Hydro Pump's infamous miss chance means that 20% of the time your revenger fails to revenge. That said, not considering miss chances, these three are all relatively good checks.

Thirdly, the niche scarfers. Zapdos-Galar, Keldeo and Latias. Of these, Zapdos-Galar can switch in once on a Pyro Ball and Keldeo can stomach hits from everything except Zen Headbutt. However, Latias is weak to both U-Turn and Sucker Punch, making it impossible for it to take advantage of its Pyro Ball resistance. Latias and Zapdos-Galar are also unable to secure OHKOs from full against Cinderace, with Keldeo being the only one able to take the kill with Hydro Pump. So of these, only Keldeo is able to effectively answer Cinderace. I will also briefly make mention of scarf Latios over scarf Latias. While this does allow Latios to outspeed and threaten an OHKO on Cinderace, this is easily the worst form of Latios that can be used due to how easily it can be pursuit trapped, and how little utility it gets comparative to Latias as a scarfer. So while it can be considered a check, I don't consider it to be usable enough to warrant a place in this argument.

Finally, the special mentions. Iron Hands is an excellent check to the offensive pivot set for Ace, which is what we've been discussing so far. However, this is easily exploited by Cinderace's utility set, which would love to bait in and burn an Iron Hands using Will O' Wisp. In a secondary vein, Iron Moth is only a check one time, after which its booster speed is used up and it becomes slower once again. If it gets too chipped, it can also get picked off by Sucker Punch mid sweep pretty easily too. Morning Sun variants are more reliable for this, however, but can still fall victim to Zen Headbutt or get pursuit trapped by Mega Tyranitar. So neither of these are that reliable as counterplay goes.

So, at the end of all this, we're left with a total of 5 pokemon that can answer Cinderace offensively. Of these, only Mega Aerodactyl has any recovery to answer Cinderace long term, while both it and Enamorus are weak to Stealth Rocks. Enamorus and Tapu Fini are also incapable of switching in on Cinderace reliably, forcing teams using them to sack a mon to get these revengers in without prediction. WashTom is a reliable offensive answer, able to take a hit in a pinch with a natural place on offense teams, while Keldeo is able to do the same with much more niche application to teams. So if you want a reliable answer with moderate splashability across teams, which doesn't have a significant flaw that the Cinderace player can exploit, you're realistically left with only WashTom as an offensive answer for most teams without having to either make multiple predictions throughout a game (that can lose on the spot if you get them wrong), sack a mon then revenge, or keep stealth rocks off for whenever Cinderace hits the field. It's that or use Keldeo, which is incredibly bad into basically the entire rest of the tier as a scarfer.

Needless to say, I shall be voting Ban on Cinderace as and when I get reqs.

 

[Pubo]

Been a while since i wrote metagame related posts but i really want Ace to be banned (i even played the fantastic National Dex UnderUsed ladder and got reqs this time), so here it goes.

First, i would like to highlight the main reason that makes Cinderace broken, which is the following set:

Pivot

Cinderace @ Heavy-Duty Boots
Ability: Libero
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Pyro Ball
- U-turn
- Gunk Shot / High Jump Kick / Zen Headbutt
- Sucker Punch

At first glance, Cinderace does the same since its introduction during Gen 8 : Fast Pivot / Revenge Killer with good (but not perfect) coverage, being able to surprise and invalidate specific checks with the right moveslot choice and Libero without getting punished. For an instance, Clefable and Tapu Fini are easily targeted by Gunk Shot; High Jump Kick works as a generic high BP move against Hippowdon or Rotom-W, with the bennefit of potentially offset its Ground- or Water-weakness with Libero. It can also OHKO Mega Ttar trying to trap you with Pursuit as it can survive one U-turn if needed. Zen Headbutt hits Toxapex, but i found it to be the worst choice here overall. Sucker Punch helps against faster threats like Speed Moth, Mega Aero, and Sand Rush Excadrill. And finally, we have the tip of the Iceberg: U-turn.

With this move, Cinderace can pretty much gather valuable information and be capable of forcing progress against every single of its checks without drawbacks thanks to Heavy-Duty Boots. Would be checks like Slowbro and Rotom-W does not appreciate taking repeated U-turns or poison from Gunk Shots and are forced to run Heavy-Duty Boots or Leftovers respectively to better answer other threats, as Rocky Helmet makes Slowbro completely vulnerable to hazards for example. Sturdier checks like Phy Def Hippowdon and Toxapex relies on Rocky Helmet to make any progress at all against Cinderace (c'mon 6.25% per turn from sand isn't really helping you here) making them worse checks to other Pokemon overall.

Really Funny Calcs

252 Atk Libero Cinderace U-turn vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 144-170 (36.5 - 43.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Slowbro heals less than it takes with Regenerator and is super vulnerable to Mega Tyranitar or Thundy, two really common partners

252 Atk Libero Cinderace U-turn vs. 252 HP / 200+ Def Rotom-Wash: 76-90 (25 - 29.6%) -- 80.1% chance to 4HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Libero Cinderace High Jump Kick vs. 252 HP / 200+ Def Rotom-Wash: 141-166 (46.3 - 54.6%) -- 98.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Libero Cinderace Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 200+ Def Rotom-Wash: 130-154 (42.7 - 50.6%) -- 44.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
Rotom-W basically needs to switch in against Pyro Ball, otherwise it will get heavily punished and next time is over.

252 Atk Libero Cinderace Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 320-378 (81.2 - 95.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Libero Cinderace Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 164+ Def Tapu Fini: 254-302 (74 - 88%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cinderace Pyro Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 160-189 (40.6 - 47.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Rocky Helmet Clefable could be solid against non-Gunk Shot Cinderace. However, after really low chip damage, it gets 2HKOed by Pyro Ball.

252 Atk Libero Cinderace Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 36+ Def Toxapex: 152-180 (50 - 59.2%) -- 69.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Libero Cinderace Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 248+ Def Toxapex: 132-156 (43.4 - 51.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

Finally, Toxapex is probably the most realiable check to Cinderace, but it requires a bunch of Defensive investment to actually take Zen Headbutt, making other Pokemon like Iron Moth super problematic to deal with.


252 Atk Libero Cinderace Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 36+ Def Toxapex: 152-180 (50 - 59.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Libero Cinderace Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 248+ Def Toxapex: 132-156 (43.4 - 51.3%) -- 3.1% chance to 2HKO

Calcs against Boots Pex. The second one looks a lot better until you realizes that Toxapex is one of the most "Knock Off me please" Pokemon in this tier.

I would also like to point out how SD Z-Move completely destroys any of the aforementioned "checks", making teambuilding against this guy a total pain.

Swords Dance

Cinderace @ Normalium Z
Ability: Libero
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Swords Dance
- Pyro Ball
- High Jump Kick
- Double-Edge

Really Funny Calcs: Cinderace Strikes Back

+2 252 Atk Libero Cinderace Breakneck Blitz (190 BP) vs. 252 HP / 248+ Def Toxapex: 306-361 (100.6 - 118.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO


+2 252 Atk Libero Cinderace Breakneck Blitz (190 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon: 367-433 (87.3 - 103%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after 1 layer of Spikes
+2 252 Atk Libero Cinderace Breakneck Blitz (190 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 385-454 (97.7 - 115.2%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

For these reasons and everything already mentioned by the previous posts, i suggest everyone capable of voting to choose BAN

 

[Arishem]

Cinderace has been banned!