3pm EST on Saturday with Zokuru, gl man!
1. Tricking (55) vs 16. Gondra (45) - Close series here, especially for 1v16, but I reckon Tricking has a slight advantage. While Tricking is far from the most prolific teambuilding presence and he is nowhere near your modern day "metagamer" type, he is a steady pilot. Unfortunately for the Italian stallion, this leads to him relying upon the teambuilding prowess of others. This is not a "bad" thing per se, but it can be a limiting factor seeing as the longevity of his run is largely placed in the hands of others before the games even start. There are surely instances of WoF building some heat that turns the tide in Tricking's favor, but for each one of those there are admittedly some head-scratchers (yea, I'm still salty about that dumbass Hippowdon). Gondra, on the other hand, is a pretty established presence in SM and seems to have had pretty decent performances in ORAS/BW recently. For him, this match-up just does not pan out ideally as his best tier happens to be the same tier Tricking has the most success in, which is SM, so you have to wonder how he will manage to pick up two wins this series. A start would be a strong BW performance as Tricking has shown some vulnerability there, but that would require Gondra branching down to a generation that is before his time. Ultimately, Gondra's key to getting the upset would be performing in formats he simply is not as comfortable as he is in SM because Tricking is vulnerable there and the SM game is going to largely depend on what Italian flavor of the month WoF feels will get the job done.
3. SoulWind (55) vs (45) 14. Bad Ass - Bad Ass has shown that he can still play a tight game, making playoffs despite hardly playing during parts of the regular season. On a conventional, tier-by-tier basis you almost have to favor SoulWind; he has more experience across the three, especially in recent years. However, SW is far from automatic in ORAS and SM and I think that Bad Ass is one of the most quick-to-adapt players out there. I'm not sure if he is just going to be handed teams and hope to perform or if he will put his mind to it and invest himself, but I would say Bad Ass winning SM or ORAS would not surprise me at all. BW is probably his strongest tier, but the issue is that it is also SW's strongest tier and SW actually understands that metagame at a pretty high level, has not taken many breaks from the tier, and has just been outright dominant there for a while. I think that because of this and the fact that SW is competent enough to hang in the other two generations, even if he's not a top player, is convincing enough to side with him despite how scrappy and crafty I view Bad Ass to be.
4. FLCL (45) vs (55) 13. ABR - Rough draw for both here and a rematch of the past; overall, a gem of a r1 series that I am excited for as a spectator. I'd probably favor ABR vs anyone, barring maybe Ojama, if only because his teambuilding presence throughout the tiers is second to none. His gameplaying ability is actually matched in this field, I feel, but it is still not too shabby and oftentimes free of any misplays. FLCL has an advantage in terms of flashy, aggressive tendencies that can give him an upper hand with regards to positioning and early games, but I feel he's also a bit more likely to have predictable teams or slip up later in games, especially if he does not take his time, which can be another thing ABR can take advantage of. Overall, if FLCL branches out, then I think it's near even, but I am unsure if he can do that, let alone comfortably, and ABR is going to avoid his less experienced mistakes of last time, so I favor him in a close series.
5. Empo (51) vs (49) 12. craing ;_; - Honestly, I hope Empo wins this series 2-0 and caps GGs both games. But unfortunately for all that's good in this world, I foresee this being a closely contested series. craing has the wheel of cheese to spin and he occasionally can play half decent when he actually shows up, so you gotta expect him to have a chance in any series just given natural variance and the way the teams he pilots work. Empo, however, is a bit less of a nonsensical player and I feel like if he focuses on his preparation, then he will ultimately come up with the right balance in teambuilding between covering what he feels good using and what will ultimately do well vs most of what craing can potentially use. This and the fact that he's the better player outright, even if slightly, gives him the upper hand here.
6. Ojama (70) vs (30) 11. Welli0u - I feel like Ojama just kind of outclasses Welli0u throughout here, hence the more lopsided prediction. Well is a bit of a scrappy player, so perhaps he can use something more risky and it will pay off, but in terms of raw gameplay skill, I definitely favor Ojama in higher pressure situations. Not a ton else to say here, but Well is going to have to take SM and ORAS probably because I don't see him winning against Ojama in his most no-nonsense generation, especially when Well's take on BW has appeared to be Sableye Sand of all things recently.
7. xray (55) vs (45) 10. FMG - Tightly contested series here; you gotta favor xray in ORAS and FMG in SM. I take xray in BW because he has been around much longer and is just more experienced in the tier, but he has never truly stood-out there, so that one is the most up-in-the-air of the three. With that said, xray's SM is closer to FMG's SM than FMG's ORAS is to xray's ORAS, so you kinda inherently figure xray has an easier path to two wins one way or another here. Neither is really a top-end player in this field, but both have a great opportunity here and I think that if things start off strong, both are capable of playing at their ceilings and making some noise here.
8. z0mOG (40) vs (60) 9. Kickasser - Kickasser has been thoroughly impressive to me recently. In a field with a lot of top-end bigger names, I think he can be a surprising threat down the stretch. z0mOG is far from a pushover -- hell, I think he will take this very seriously and compete to the best of his abilities, which are not too shabby, but I just feel like Kickasser is approaching top player status and he will outmatch z0mOG here. The matchup is especially problematic for z0mOG as I feel like his SM/ORAS are simply a small step behind that of Kickasser, so he cannot really gain much traction and lacks a favorable tier, which is usually something people who are not favored at least have so that they can potentially take 1/2 to bring home the series. All things considered, close series, but gotta favor Kickasser.