Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 6

Status
Not open for further replies.

IPF

sundown
is a Tiering Contributor
And we are b-b-b-back with OU predicts (slightly late my apologies), 10/14 last week (bunch of subs), 53/89 overall

SS OU: Samqian vs ZDen - Both players are 2-3, but I feel like Sam has been more convincing so far. He was botted last week by ima and his SubCM Clef, and has generally played well even if his record may not reflect that. ZDen is solid but I'll take Samqian here
SS OU: lax vs Gefährlicher Random - Small stumble last week for lax when he got picked apart by Sacri's specs Toxtricity, however one loss is nowhere near enough to make me stop bolding him
SS OU: Fear vs xray - I wonder how long the Rattlers will persist with the Fear experiment, he hasn't been convincing and they've got some hungry current gen players on the bench, maybe this is the week that forces the sub. Although xray hasn't been dominant this Snake, he still has the track record to make me always bold him here
SS OU: Kebab mlml vs LittleBigPlanet2 - Spicy game, LBP2 showed up with one of the most fun teams I've seen this tour last week, the highlight being the offensive Mew. Kebab's been a bit up and down but my bias towards creativity determined who I picked. Should be a fun one

SS OU: Tamahome vs FMG - Tama is on an absolute tear. He's currently sitting at 99 all time wins in team tours which is just absurd and his current form indicates that win number 100 is due this week
SS OU: Vaboh vs TPP - Predicted Vaboh to win last week and he did, even if the opponent was different '-'. I rate him highly and have liked his team choices, TPP just hasn't shown that he's got the pedigree to win games on the big stage (fucking hell that sounds awful I'm sorry)
SS OU: Star vs mncmt - Act win last week for Star who has had a disappointing season so far, in direct contrast to mncmt who's been on fire and could easily be 5-0
SS OU: watashi vs 1 True Lycan - Lycan has been solid so far, not sure if he could've done much differently against xray's Zarude last week. watashi has come back to Earth in the last 2 weeks, albeit against some rough matchups, but I fully expect him to bounce back this week.

SS OU: BIHI vs beatiful - bea has quietly been putting in solid performances and now that Ewin has been tour banned (perdemos), which is a blessing in disguise for me as I was 0-5 on predicting his games (ganhamos), I think he'll do well. Especially impressed with his drunken ability to pick apart Luigi's stall last week
SS OU: Tace vs Garay oak - Gonna apply similar logic here as I did to the Lopunny Kicks-Tace game last week, can't see Tace losing 4 in a row so I'm expecting him to beat Garay here
SS OU: Finchinator vs Jytcampbell - Interesting game, both players haven't been extraordinary but they've been solid, with pretty safe team choices as well. I rate Finch higher so I'll bold him
SS OU: Raiza vs Eo Ut Mortus - Big highlight, both have been exceptional but I've been a massive fan of Raiza's play lately so I have to go with him. Expecting to see a slightly longer game with some high stakes interactions, really looking forward to it

SS OU: Rexus vs Sacri' - The Sac took down this tours hottest player last week and has shown that his poor WCoP was just a one-off. He's a top player in the pool and I believe he will continue this hot streak this week
SS OU: BK vs robjr - BK is another player who's been brilliant so far, putting in strong performances week after week so I'll go with him
SS OU: John W vs ima - The less said about John's game last week the better. I rate him highly but ima has just been outstanding this tour. Definitely a highlight game regardless, interested to see which direction John goes with his team choice this week after the Ewin debacle, his preference for bulkier teams that ima has been taking advantage of makes this a tougher matchup
SS OU: ramboss vs Storm Zone - The team choices here are going to be off the wall, but if I see 2 standard teams I will not bold either of them again :psyangry:. Must watch game for sure, picking ramboss but tbh I have no clue, may as well flip a coin, even if I consider Storm the better player

SS OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Eeveeto - Punny was back amongst the wins last week, however I've been converted by the Church of Eeveeto. Dude has just been amazing and I can't predict against him
SS OU: Santu vs High Impulse - Santu, now equipped with a shiny turquoise trophy, will be looking to end this tour with a strong record to round out what has been a ridiculously good 2020 for him. He's been on fire, and has shown more than Impulse has
SS OU: Bloody alfa vs le LLiolae - Fairly simple, even if alfa has been struggling LLL has just not been convincing whatsoever. Not sure if dice has cancered or if he's busy, but this is the 3rd week in a row where he's out and tbh I think he is the primary reason for the Taipans lacklustre season
SS OU: Leo vs Void - Leo was put down by the broken bear last week but I can't predict Void to win based off just one win in the tier

Looking forward to reading Finchinator, TonyFlygon and Eo Ut Mortus predicts as they always put mine to shame. Good luck to everyone!
 

Finchinator

no longer Harry’s house
is a Tournament Directoris a Top Social Media Contributoris a Community Leaderis a Community Contributoris a Live Chat Contributoris a Top Tiering Contributoris a Contributor to Smogonis a Top Smogon Media Contributoris a Super Moderator Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past WCoP Championis a former Tournament Circuit Champion
OU & NU Leader
Sorry for the delay on these; I have been studying very hard to become an artist. Here is an example of some of my finest work thus far!

Also, I will be playing Jytcampbell Sunday at 7pm GMT-4. Please let the record show that he is the john in this dynamic.

OU: Samqian vs ZDen - Samqian's 2-3 is far more impressive to me. He lost an unwinnable game last week and it is not like you can fault his preparation as SubCM Clefable is not something you see. In addition, he was unfortunate in other games, causing some other losses out of his control. Samqian is a really promising player and plays nicely more often than not. ZDen's had some good moments, but also some shaky ones. He got fortunate in one of his wins, but also made some really impressive players later in games to maintain advantageous positions. I feel like his teams are a bit less consistent than Samqian though and I also feel he's a slight step behind as a player, so I favor Samqian.

OU: lax vs Gefährlicher Random - lax is going to get back on track here. Last week, Sacri' got the better end of him, but lax has been playing well for the most part and I do not think Gefarhlicher Random will be able to match him. While Random is not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, his upside is nowhere near lax's currently. Going with the more proven of the two without hesitation.

OU: Fear vs xray - xray is better this generation. I still am a believer in the Fear experiment, even if it has been rough thus far, but he is not going to be able to beat a top player like xray. Yes, xray has had a rough tournament, but small sample sizes can do that and he will continue to bounce back here.

OU: Kebab mlml vs LittleBigPlanet2 - Kebab is more proven, LBP2 did not have to do a ton to win last week, and I am not a fan of using recency bias to be the sole decider. Unfortunately, all LBP2 has going for him rn is recency bias, so I'm going with Kebab here.

DOU: Ezrael vs Frania
UU: CBU vs Sabella - Closer than one might imagine as Sabella gives everyone a tight match, but CBU feels a bit more proven in UU this generation so far.
RU: Ajna vs Charmflash - Ajna might not lose another game all tour tbh. Would not be surprised. Charmflash will give him a tight one, but won't be enough.
NU: bugzinator vs Ho3nConfirm3d
PU: Vulpix03 vs Ktütverde
LC: Serene Grace vs Wail Wailord - Kind of an upset, but Wail Wailord impresses me and I think he has the guts to pull it out. Both are great though!

OU: Tamahome vs FMG - Tamahome looks solid. Took him a few SS games to get into form, but I expect him to keep up recent success here. FMG will continue to live up to expectations, beating those below him and perhaps struggling with some top players. I expect a close one, but favoring Tamahome.

OU: Vaboh vs TPP - Vaboh is an underrated player with a good grasp on the tier. TPP needs to work on his execution, but he knows the metagame and will try his hardest in preparation. I feel like Vaboh is just further developed at this point and I expect TPP to struggle, unfortunately.

OU: Star vs mncmt - Northeast bias, duh.

OU: watashi vs 1 True Lycan - FLCL will stop losing to random shit and comeback strong here, starting another tear moving forward like he was on earlier this year. 1TL is strong, but you have to wonder if he will try to go out of his way to match a strong opponent and how he will do so. I do not trust his abilities to outmanage FLCL on this front or in the game. Rough opponent, but 1TL will bounce back after surely.

DOU: DLT JRL BELL vs Qwello Lee
UU: Askov vs Lilburr - Turns out Askov is actually good at this Pokemon thing, that's a big plus for the Serpents.
RU: Mazinger vs snaga
NU: Jrdn vs Sjneider - Jrdn has looked poor. Sjneider has had some rough games, but he is still the best in NU. Expecting some creative picks in the builder.
PU: obii vs Xiri - obii is going to struggle with the PU players who are actually really strong players all-around like Xiri I feel. Xiri could do it in any tier with support and he will showcase that here. obii will bounce back soon and finish positive I feel, but Xiri is one of, if not the, best PU players. Also has great support, which goes a long way.
LC: tko vs Shrug

OU: Rexus vs Sacri' - Sacri' won against lax last week, so I find it hard to predict against him here. Rexus is strong and underrated even -- keep in mind guys, he is Italian after all. Sacri', however, is able to master his craft of bringing consistent bulky-offense and balance builds with the right flashy breaker to clear the way. Sacri' is going to finish this season strong and this will be another win under his belt.

OU: BK vs robjr - BK has played like a complete savage recently and robjr has came back down to Earth. It's a damn close game, but I will favor the hot hand here.

OU: John W vs ima - ima's team choice last week was electric, solidifying a win with a win-condition that seemed like a complete counter to the opponent's team. The sheer intellect of the 8-3 sensation formerly known as Pork Chop Man continues to impress. John W has cooled off from a dominant WCOP into OLT campaign, but regardless he is cruising in STour and has some wins under his belt here, so I would imagine he will put up a fight. Who do I favor? I guess ima, if only because it fit well with the play-on-words from above, but that's about all I got. I consider them equally matched. ima is a bit more proven as a player, but John W is more proven as a builder. This can go either way.

OU: ramboss vs Storm Zone vs spectators - easiest prediction of my life.

DOU: Nails vs Memoric
UU: hs vs SoulWind - -hs
RU: odr vs atomicllamas - odr, who once appeared to be the chosen one of RU, may not be off to the best start imaginable. However, I know the guy and I know he is going to put in the work. He knows the tier well, he knows how to play well, and he is determined. Atomicllamas is no slouch -- in fact, he has more wins than many imagined he would up to this point. In the eyes of most, he's the trendy pick here. However, I believe in odr and I am going to stick with my instinct by picking him, which will likely go horribly wrong as my ability to pick RU games is about as good as Atomicllamas's ability was to pilot Golurk w1. Should be a close one regardless, personal hl as I quite like both.
NU: Kushalos vs elodin - I keep pitching the "Kushalos is washed" narrative and he wins every freaking week. I'll throw my boy elodin a bone by predicting against him, thus reversing Kushalos's fortune...because that's clearly how this works.
PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs Kink
LC: Xizaaa vs Ninjadog

OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Eeveeto - For those who thought Lopunny Kicks was falling off, he just beat Tace in impressive fashion and the dude is clearly a great player. BK has been surging and some of his other losses have been under less-than-ideal circumstances I feel. Lopunny Kicks is a great metagamer -- he gets the tier, he knows what innovative picks show potential, and he is not afraid to search for the midground between unpredictable techs and efficient strategies. On the contrary, Eeveeto always swings for the fences, trying to find the most ambitious strategy to get the job done, no matter how unorthodox. I align more with the philsophy of Lopunny Kicks and also view him as a more proven battler. Eeveeto earns some style points for some of his brings and also his recent success, but this is not enough for me to go against one of the guys I was highest on going into the tournament.

OU: Santu vs High Impulse - Fact: people always lose a couple games in team tournaments played immediately after winning individual trophies. Sure, Santu fell to BIHI last weekend, but that was right before he played for GSlam finals and also is just one game. Santu is obviously the favorite, but Amir will find some bizarre way to win to keep this clearly-true fact alive for the sake of preserving random Smogon narratives that have only been discussed a small handful of times and applied to a select number of contexts to poke fun at people losing random games.

OU: Bloody alfa vs le LLiolae - le LLiolae is not the solution to the Taipans OU. He has gotten 6-0d in more games than not when trying to play SS OU in officials if my memory serves me correct. Bloody alfa had a rough go last week, but he's clearly the better of the two and has some cool ideas in the builder.

OU: Leo vs Void - Void is the more proven player historically, but Leo is not as far behind as you might imagine, knows SS OU well, and looked good against Sacri'. I am curious as to why he continued to EQ against my Urshifu, but I imagine he was banking on me only possibly being Life Orb, thus only getting 2-3 kills, or did not realize Kyurem lived a +2 Blackglasses Sucker Punch from Adamant Urshifu (or thought Draco Meteor gave away that he may have been Modest, which it did not given the dmg). Either way, it was complicated and likely not super favorable for him, so getting 3 chances to crit EQ was not the worst thing in the world and if this is the only gripe directed towards him as a player, then he is the favorite to take this one against a guy who is inexperienced in the tier.

DOU: qsns vs Kiichikos
UU: Ramolost vs Adaam - Ramolost's teams are cool, but Adaam is more consistent as a player I feel.
RU: soulgazer vs Expulso - I hope Roman is alright as I thought he was a great addition to this line-up, but obviously SG is a competent lower tier pilot regardless of tier. Expulso has not stood out as a player and strikes me as overly ambitious at times. I pictured him as more of a utility than anything else, but here he is. This will be a rough one for him against a proven veteran I feel.
NU: CyberOdin✝ vs aim
PU: pokemonisfun vs tlenit - Klang cannot actually be a good idea and because of that I will favor the guy who did not use it.
LC: frisoeva vs Osh - friso getting his wish to play non-OU, but against stiff competition in an LC debut. Rough start, but he will get it together if he is granted a larger sample in the metagame, especially if he encounters non-top players as opponents in the future. Osh is great and he got this one.


UU: avarice made note of some highlights here and Adaam gave his thoughts on recent trends here.

RU: gorex, once again, went in-depth on the intricacies of the tournament metagame here.

PU: SpacialRendevous, which I have always thought was a slick username btw, gave his thoughts on various trends here.

LC: taranteeeno interviewed LC player dcae here and DC, formerly Dreamcatcher and not to be confused with dcae, had some great analysis here.

Everyone else: Be sure to check out the album Fine Line by Harry Styles!
 

Tamahome

startling sign
is a Tiering Contributoris a Top Tutor Alumnusis a Past SPL Championis a Past WCoP Champion
Won vs FMG, gg.

...and that makes one hundred! I feel like this milestone deserves some more words especially to my italian fans, so here it goes.

In all honesty, despite "the sheet" being so important to some players, I for one really don't care about it. Sure, it's nice to boast big numbers/good records, but at times it takes all the fun from actually playing the game. This ''what matters is the bolded name" mentality is probably why people end up not enjoying tournaments and/or the game like they should.

That aside, I'll share a few words about myself, so maybe in the future I won't be called ''enigmatic" or seen as someone who doesn't mesh well just because I'm on the more silent side on forums. I remember my very first game for a team tourney: SPL 2, after midseason, against goofball. While I had 3 posts, he had 3 trophies. gorgie and Fabbles recruited me to play for the Bigs, and the rest is history.

Crazy to think that 1/9 of my posts have been these spiceless ''Won vs x, gg" for pretty much 10 years now, but I surely hope to at the very least keep a rate like that for as long as I play. Despite being a lawyer/model with work consuming pretty much all of my time, it's always nice to cool off from typing essays to log on and play some mons whenever I have a break, and I can only do that because I have some of the nicest friends and teammates who will always support me with teams and practice whenever I can. After all this time I don't think there will be a summer for me without SPL, or a winter break without my brazilians friends as we keep trying harder and harder to int more than we did the year before. And yeah, the community will always have clowns like soulgazer who will make an effort to go out of their way to say bad things whenever they feel like, but the majority is still the best part of it, and while certain things will never change, I can only hope newcomers can have as much of a good time as I still have with these tourneys.


To close it out, I just wanna thank all of you that approached me recently and cheered on me. If you had some fun watching 1 of these 100 wins, then my job here is done.

Also thanks to everyone who has given me teams throughout these years, I certainly couldn't have gone so far without you all. Eternal Spirit Eo Ut Mortus crayon pop it would be really unfair if I didn't tag you guys specifically: you have been my most reliable source of teams for the past 5 years or so, and I truly appreciate all the help. <3
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 0)

Top