Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 4

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Won vs tlenit in probably the closest game ive played in a long time, ggs fren.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8ou-519506

252 Atk Unfezant Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Dugtrio-Alola: 135-159 (63.9 - 75.3%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO (dugtrio at 69%)
252 Atk Unfezant Brave Bird vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Gourgeist-Super: 306-360 (82 - 96.5%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock


So it seems tlenit's chances of winning are low, since he needs two ~50% rolls in a row (25% chance approximately). But superluck grants him a 12.5% chance of critting. If you do the maths tlenit has a ~47% chance of winning. But...

...suddenly Ktut realized he had to include the suckerpunch roll. But then he asked tlenit what speed drifblim had: 284. Throh had 142 because someone was stupid enough to speed creep randomly fast mawiles but not drifblim. So drifblim paralyzed won speed tie vs throh. Yet ktut got the discharge paralyis! However tlenit's zeppelin moved three times successfully while paralyzed... Ktut realized, with tears welling up in his eyes, that this calculation was way beyond his capabilities. Tlenit and him agreed that what mattered is that it was, as one could formulate it, hella close.

Gg again and thanks for the game xD
 
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