Situation in Iran

Misty

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Iran held a presidential election yesterday, and incumbent president (and perennial demagogue) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner. The strange part is that the election was blatantly stolen - Ahmadinejad won 63% of the vote, compared to his rival, Mirhossein Mousavi, who won 33%. Given Ahmadinejad's widespread disapproval (mostly for economic mismanagement) and extremely high turnout (which has generally favored more liberal candidates in the past), the result is really difficult to defend. Riots have broken out among Mousavi's supporters, who have clashed with police.

While it's unsurprising that the election was rigged, it is very surprising that it was rigged so heavily and blatantly. One wonders what exactly Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is thinking, having claimed the result is legitimate. The next week or so may be very interesting.

More information:

Yahoo News story

The Cable at Foreign Policy, for updates and commentary on the results
 

Vineon

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Far from saying this is what happened but what if occidentals wanted Mousavi to win so much they were ready to invent or exagerate everything. Would they do the same if a rigged election ended up favoring a candidate they back up? Defending democracy takes a serious back seat to defending who we would prefer end up winning.

What if their goal is to force a revolt against Ahmadinejad. How easy for the western world's political force and the media would it be to convince their own citizens the election was rigged. Probably even easier than it was to convince them Irak should have been invaded on the ground they had weapons of mass destruction and were a threat. Are we going by foreign observers and pre-election polls likely conducted by foreign polling firms as a base to prove the results were likely rigged? Considering many Iranians living outside the big cities do not have a phone, were they even taken into consideration in the polls samplings?
 

Deck Knight

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Does it really matter in this instance?

The President of Iran is just a mouthpiece for the mullahs. Either way it will be spun as a diplomatic victory for Barack Obama (all events everywhere are spun to be victories for Obama).

Khamenei still runs the show regardless of whether it's his current mouthpiece or a new one. Rigging elections is insanely common in nations not originally colonized by European nations, and even then the dead still vote in Chicago.

Iran's nuclear or terrorist-backing policies will not change one bit, nor do the mullahs give a damn about anything but the facade of democracy. To me this is at best a case of "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
 
+2 attack and a Substitute.

shut up



There were four candidates, so 63 and 33 seems very unlikely to me. There definitely was cheating; some voting booths were closed because they supposedly ran out of ballots, and pro-Mousavi blogs were blocked(they can filter websites from being viewed) by the government.
 

Deck Knight

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There were four candidates, so 69 and 33 seems very unlikely to me. There definitely was cheating; some voting booths were closed because they supposedly ran out of ballots, and pro-Mousavi blogs were blocked(they can filter websites from being viewed) by the government.
All of the information I've heard about the candidates is that Mousavi was the only real viable challenger, effectively making the other two contenders more like Ralph Nader/Michael Badnarik "also-rans."
 
The figures certainly suggest tampering, but it is my understanding that Ahmadinejad has more support than most Westerners seem to realize, so it wouldn't be unreasonable for him to 'legitimately' win. Repression of Mousavi's supporters is in full-force, and Haaretz reports that the man himself was arrested. Hopefully Obama will continue non-placeting Israel's warmongering, which will likely be redoubled in the election's wake; however, his envoy's latest book is disquieting. Martin van Creveld's analysis of Iran's nuclear threat remains relevant; namely, that there isn't one.

Rigging elections is insanely common in nations not originally colonized by European nations, and even then the dead still vote in Chicago.
What does this even mean?

Anyway, some more reporting from/about Iran:

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE55C0W620090613
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/middle_east/2000/iran_elections/iran_election_news/627344.stm
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/tags/index.jhtml?tag=Iran
 
Does it really matter in this instance?

The President of Iran is just a mouthpiece for the mullahs. Either way it will be spun as a diplomatic victory for Barack Obama (all events everywhere are spun to be victories for Obama).

Khamenei still runs the show regardless of whether it's his current mouthpiece or a new one. Rigging elections is insanely common in nations not originally colonized by European nations, and even then the dead still vote in Chicago.

Iran's nuclear or terrorist-backing policies will not change one bit, nor do the mullahs give a damn about anything but the facade of democracy. To me this is at best a case of "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
Pretty much this sums up Iran perfectly. Despite being the president of Iran, ultimately it is up to the Grand Ayatollah and Council who makes the decisions. However i do believe this election is not all it appears to be.
 
The figures certainly suggest tampering, but it is my understanding that Ahmadinejad has more support than most Westerners seem to realize, so it wouldn't be unreasonable for him to 'legitimately' win.
Ahmadinejad winning is hardly a surprise, but winning by this much is. And apparantly the reformist candidate lost in his hometown and there is very little geographical variation, which pretty much screams bullshit. Hopefully there is change - I admit that I respect Iran and view them as infinitely more civilized than their Arabic neighbors, and I wish the United States could cooperate with them.

Right now what disgusts me is that MSM coverage of this is despicable. Neither Fox News nor CNN have had anything on this for a while, and I have had the television on for the last two hours or so.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/ is a great link frankly with their coverage, ultimately.
 
The Ayatollah really controls Iran. However, I think it's safe to assume that there was some type of tampering with the vote in some way just because Ahmedinijad and his cronies seem like the type who would be interested in seeming like they won the election by a landslide. Even though it's likely that he gained more votes than any other candidate, the margin of victory seems a little too high unless people completely misread the political feelings in Tehran.
 

Misty

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While it's true that the power structure hasn't changed, it's worth noting that the regime may end up losing a lot of legitimacy, both in the eyes of the international community and the Iranian people. If the government isn't even semi-democratic, it becomes another generic dictatorship, which means that it will become more and more unstable, and more unable to navigate the global system.
 

Deck Knight

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The figures certainly suggest tampering, but it is my understanding that Ahmadinejad has more support than most Westerners seem to realize, so it wouldn't be unreasonable for him to 'legitimately' win. Repression of Mousavi's supporters is in full-force, and Haaretz reports that the man himself was arrested. Hopefully Obama will continue non-placeting Israel's warmongering, which will likely be redoubled in the election's wake; however, his envoy's latest book is disquieting. Martin van Creveld's analysis of Iran's nuclear threat remains relevant; namely, that there isn't one.

What does this even mean?
Put bluntly: Most of the nations outside of Europe and Continental North America have showhorse elections. See: Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, Castro's Cuba, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Iran. Basically if it's a commie or a theocrat, expect elections in name only.

Also, in addition to being ignorant about Israel and it's supposed "war-mongering" (i.e. kicking Arab ass when they decide to mount a three pronged strike and fail so horribly Israel's land triples, only to be ceded back later under the banner of another useless "land for peace" deal.) you also don''t know about Robert F. Kennedy's raising the dead to vote for his brother?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1960

However, a special prosecutor assigned to the case brought charges against 650 people, which did not result in convictions.[1] Three Chicago election workers were convicted of voter fraud in 1962 and served short terms in jail.[1] Mazo, the Herald-Tribune reporter, later said that he found names of the dead who had voted in Chicago, along with 56 people from one house.[1] He found cases of Republican voter fraud in southern Illinois, but said the totals didn't match the Chicago fraud he found.[1] After Mazo had published four parts of an intended 12-part voter fraud series documenting his findings which was re-published nationally, he says Nixon requested his publisher stop the rest of the series so as to prevent a constitutional crisis.[1] Nevertheless, the Chicago Tribune wrote that "the election of November 8 was characterized by such gross and palpable fraud as to justify the conclusion that [Nixon] was deprived of victory."[1] Had Nixon won both states, he would have ended up with exactly 270 electoral votes and the presidency, with or without a victory in the popular vote.
The 1960 Election fraud in Chicago is a well known piece of American election history. ACORN (Obama's homeboys) seems to have topped it last year though, they're under investigation in over a dozen states, or at least they were, I don't know if AG Holder is going to lift a damn finger other than to either pardon them or give them medals. It's the Chicago Way.

Seriously though, Israel war-mongering? Israel gets heat from the "World Community" whenever it responds to rocket attacks with any response other than buckling and groveling to the UN and it's council of human rights abusers. Just Google "Israel disproportionate force." If Israel ever actually started the war you say they're ambling for, we'd be saying "Iran? What the hell is Iran?" Same with your nonsensical view of American imperialism. Cuba and Canada's continued existence, despite how easily they would be conquered is proof enough of that.

You're insane if you believe Israel is a warmonger whatsoever, never mind in relation to Iran. If all the Muslims just shut up about killing the Yahouds, spreading Jihad, and destroying the Great Satan and it's Little Satan, we'd have peace. If Israel stops defending itself, everyone in that nation dies a gruesome and bloody death at the hands of 7th century savages of the kind that run Iran.

The vast majority of the Middle East is a cesspool of the most vile garbage imaginable when it comes to political leadership. The brutality in Iran is only the latest example. You really think Iranian leadership wants nuclear technology for the purposes of peaceful energy creation? And I suppose Kim-Jong Il really just wants airdrops of Twinkies. Launching short range missiles is just his way of showing it.
 
There wasn't much of a chance that Ahmedinejad could've been elected fairly; the most pressing issue to most Iranians is freedom over even the economy or foreign policy; be it to people for or against censorship. The only people that'd support Ahmedinejad are poor, uneducated, religious people above 40 or his "cronies".


Also Deck Knight, think about the shitstorm that Israel attacking Iran would invoke if it took America 6 years to bring the stability in Iraq you see on the news today. Israel would not have already attacked Iran if they wanted to.


What the hell does Iran's nuclear program have to do with this?
 

Ancien Régime

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Seriously though, Israel war-mongering? Israel gets heat from the "World Community" whenever it responds to rocket attacks with any response other than buckling and groveling to the UN and it's council of human rights abusers
so that means a 100:1 kill ratio while bombing schoolchildren is okay

You're insane if you believe Israel is a warmonger whatsoever, never mind in relation to Iran. If 0.05% of the Muslims just shut up about killing the Yahouds, spreading Jihad, and destroying the Great Satan and it's Little Satan, we'd have peace. If Israel stops defending itself, everyone in that nation dies a gruesome and bloody death at the hands of 7th century savages of the kind that run Iran.
You mean the schoolchildren and Palestininan families killed in airstrikes?

Honestly, you sound like a National Socialist trying to paint the Wehrmacht mowing down Poles with old rifles as a "defensive" manuver. Do you really think poorly made, inaccurate explosives are any threat to even the weakest third-world force?

Hamas are monstrous, but history has clearly shown that the Israeli state is no better.
 

Caelum

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It's clearly rigged. Poll results may not be entirely accurate, but they do give some indication and the indication clearly wasn't this result.

While it's true that the power structure hasn't changed, it's worth noting that the regime may end up losing a lot of legitimacy, both in the eyes of the international community and the Iranian people. If the government isn't even semi-democratic, it becomes another generic dictatorship, which means that it will become more and more unstable, and more unable to navigate the global system.
I'm not sure the Iranian government has had a lot of legitimacy in the international community for quite some time and the nations that we really require to crack down on Iran are ones that don't give a shit about democracy or the legitimacy of that government. I've always viewed the role of their president as being, for the most part, just a puppet representative. We'll have to see how it effects the internal turmoil of Iran if the people don't see it as legitimate though.

Also Deck Knight, think about the shitstorm that Israel attacking Iran would invoke if it took America 6 years to bring the stability in Iraq you see on the news today. Israel would not have already attacked Iran if they wanted to.
Why do I have a feeling that if Israel launched a military strike, they wouldn't be rebuilding Iran. We've been there for 6 years because we are trying to stabilize the region, I'm skeptical that Israel would even bother. I think they would probably just bomb it and leave it in pieces. I could be wrong, but that's what I would see as being the most likely action.

so that means a 100:1 kill ratio while bombing schoolchildren is okay

Hamas are monstrous, but history has clearly shown that the Israeli state is no better.
People that are attacked often reply with greater force, in reference to your "100:1 kill ratio." I'm not saying I don't believe the Israelis have overreacted at times, because I do; but when you have rogue militants firing rockets into your towns and your people are living in constant fear I can't say I'm entirely surprised by their responses. It's not always justified, but I wouldn't go as far to say they are "no better" than Hamas.
 
so that means a 100:1 kill ratio while bombing schoolchildren is okay



You mean the schoolchildren and Palestininan families killed in airstrikes?

Honestly, you sound like a National Socialist trying to paint the Wehrmacht mowing down Poles with old rifles as a "defensive" manuver. Do you really think poorly made, inaccurate explosives are any threat to even the weakest third-world force?

Hamas are monstrous, but history has clearly shown that the Israeli state is no better.
If you were in Israel's place, what would you do differently? When you're firing rockets without caring who you hit, the rockets don't need to be particularly well made or accurate. At this point, it seems like a bit of a vicious cycle; Israel is continually bombed until they respond, and their response provides "justification" for the next round of bombings against the evil Zionist oppressors.

As somebody who almost never agrees with anything Israel does, especially their domestic policies, they did the absolute right thing. If you were the prime minister of Israel, would you let your people die without response simply because the bombs were poorly made? Would you call back your troops because they were too effective? It doesn't matter whether or not Hamas posed a "threat" to Israel as a whole; governments simply cannot brush off the constant murder of their civilians.

Also, talk about civilians killed in airstrikes is a bit misleading. If Hamas didn't hide themselves beneath hospitals, schools, etc, that number wouldn't be nearly as high.

-------------------------

Some thoughts on the subject at hand:

-While it may be pretty obvious to the world that the election was rigged, I don't believe that will greatly change the way policy towards Iran is handled. I don't think that because we now know the government doesn't necessarily have the support of the people we will take a different line in negotiations. Does it really matter? With the people's support or without it, we are still extremely worried about Iran picking up a nuke. Beyond that, we haven't historically given a shit about them. If they were to abandon their nuclear program, we'd go right back to that. Furthermore, our policy is even less likely to change given that, while technically perhaps a coup, the same people are still in charge.

-It's not ridiculous in the least to think of Israel bombing Iran to prevent them from achieving a nuclear weapon. They've done it before in Iraq (1981) and more recently (last January) in Syria. They won't balk at doing it once more.
 

Hipmonlee

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f you were in Israel's place, what would you do differently? When you're firing rockets without caring who you hit, the rockets don't need to be particularly well made or accurate. At this point, it seems like a bit of a vicious cycle; Israel is continually bombed until they respond, and their response provides "justification" for the next round of bombings against the evil Zionist oppressors.

As somebody who almost never agrees with anything Israel does, especially their domestic policies, they did the absolute right thing. If you were the prime minister of Israel, would you let your people die without response simply because the bombs were poorly made? Would you call back your troops because they were too effective? It doesn't matter whether or not Hamas posed a "threat" to Israel as a whole; governments simply cannot brush off the constant murder of their civilians.

Also, talk about civilians killed in airstrikes is a bit misleading. If Hamas didn't hide themselves beneath hospitals, schools, etc, that number wouldn't be nearly as high.
The first thing I would do is disband the settlements on stolen land.

And if people are hiding behind civillians then I recommend finding a better method of stoping them. I just cant imagine a circumstance where I would think that bombing schoolchildren is an acceptable course of action.

Have a nice day.
 

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You mean the schoolchildren and Palestininan families killed in airstrikes?

Honestly, you sound like a National Socialist trying to paint the Wehrmacht mowing down Poles with old rifles as a "defensive" manuver. Do you really think poorly made, inaccurate explosives are any threat to even the weakest third-world force?

Hamas are monstrous, but history has clearly shown that the Israeli state is no better.
You mean throwing rockets over the border, pissing Israel to attack is okay too? Most arguements go like this:

A: OMFG THEY KILLED PALESTENIANS HUMAN RIGHTS FUCKKKKK
B: Don't piss off Israel in the first place. You threw 2000 rockets in their faces.
A: ITS HUMAN RIGHTS. LOOK AT THOSE PALESTENIANS KILLED!

It's basically circular reasoning.

Needless to say, Israel has done it's share of wrongs, especially that one time when that Saudi prince offered a peace resolution and they rejected (something along the lines of that), but I'm sick and tired of everyone making Israel look like some kind of monster while Palestine is the weak and hurt one. They both have their share of responsibilities, and that's fact.
 

jrrrrrrr

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It's one thing to have an "indication" that the election "might" have been rigged (although tbh Mousavi might have been in on it), but has any actual evidence come out yet?

Until any actual evidence comes out, these claims are just as baseless as Deck Knight's incoherent, irrelevant rantings about ACORN and "the Chicago way"...since we all know that something that happened in 1960, a case where both parties attempted to rig the vote before Barack Obama was even born, is definitely a precursor to what happened when he was running for president >45 years later.
 

Hipmonlee

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To be honest I dont think it matters, people in Iran are rioting regardless.. And Iran isnt particularly democratic either way.. I feel pretty confident saying there was a great deal of cheating on both sides of this election, its basically the equivalent of the gamefaqs character battle.

fisk said:
It is certainly odd that Ahmadinejad denies Hitler's greatest crime and then accuses his opponents of being Hitler.
This made me chuckle..

Have a nice day.
 

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The first thing I would do is disband the settlements on stolen land.
You do mean "the entire state of Israel", right?

I do not think Israel has *any* right to exist; their existence is the result of a massive and systematic land theft that easily ranks among larceny such theft as the the American Southwest from Mexicans (note I said Mexicans, not the Mexican state) and the American West from Native Americans.

(this is not to disparage Jews; though I think Zionism is "National Socialism for Jewish people", but I seperate Zionism from Jews just as I seperate Nazism from German people)

It doesn't matter whether or not Hamas posed a "threat" to Israel as a whole; governments simply cannot brush off the constant murder of their civilians.
You rape and kill my wife, and threaten to kill me.

By your logic, I should blow up every house in your neighborhood while they're sleeping because you might be hiding in one of them.

Palestine is the weak and hurt one.
Palestine = / = Hamas.

As for Iran, the entire fear of "rogue nations" getting nukes is fairly absurd. These are evil regimes. They are not batshit crazy regimes. If a nuke goes off on American soil, Iran and North Korea would be erased within minutes. These fears are based solely on the idea that they're "crazy jihadist sandniggers" who don't care about themselves getting annihiliated with US nukes.
 
Just like Bush vs. Gore in Florida I think that the Iranians will just grin and bare this election. Most countries that are afraid of their government (America) put up with a severe lack of civil liberties.

Iran has a piss poor human rights record and the only way I could see the president stepping down is if there was a military coup or a huge civil rebellion which would obviously result in a large lack of life.

I wonder if the UN will impose sanctions upon Iran. I really feel like the Theocratic government and poor leadership are holding Iran back.
 

Deck Knight

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so that means a 100:1 kill ratio while bombing schoolchildren is okay
Maybe Hamas shouldn't fire rockets off the top of school buildings and use schoolchildren as human shields?

How about they fight like an army not like a bunch of street thugs?

How about they not hide behind skirts and baby carriages like the cowardly bastards they are?

For such proud "soldiers for Allah," they sure do like to put the women and children in front.

You mean the schoolchildren and Palestininan families killed in airstrikes?

Honestly, you sound like a National Socialist trying to paint the Wehrmacht mowing down Poles with old rifles as a "defensive" manuver. Do you really think poorly made, inaccurate explosives are any threat to even the weakest third-world force?

Hamas are monstrous, but history has clearly shown that the Israeli state is no better.
So your response to cowards using human shields is to never, ever retaliate because the shields will be killed?

Every single solitary death of a schoolchild is the direct result of the Hamas cowards using schoolchildren as human shields. Hamas has been responsible for the deaths of far, far more Palestinians than the Isrealis because of their policy of using schools as weapon storage and rocket launching sites and schoolchildren as human shields.

Why do schoolchildren burn? Because Hamas derives benefit from using them as human shields, then relying on useful idiots to spread the news that "Israel kills schoolchildren! They're monsters!" No. Hamas are monsters. They care more about killing Jews than the lives of their own children. Literally. They will let schoolchildren be killed just so they can show the carnage on TV, and have some ignorant sap talk about Israeli aggression.

I do not think Israel has *any* right to exist; their existence is the result of a massive and systematic land theft that easily ranks among larceny such theft as the the American Southwest from Mexicans (note I said Mexicans, not the Mexican state) and the American West from Native Americans.
Cry me a river. They were given the land and they steward it well, and have utterly destroyed the attempts of other nations to take it back. 1948 was a long time ago and land was split up after a devastating war, and quite frankly if you till the land, steward it, defend it, and don't go rampaging against your neighbors, it is no one else's place to take it from you, regardless of how you originally got it. It's 2009. Talk about how "Israel has no right to be there" is a massive load of bullshit. They've controlled and stewarded the land for over 50 years, and the only reason they've ever gone to war is to wipe out an aggressing force.

Muslim claims to land in the Middle East via divine right are nonsensical to begin with. Both Judaism and Christianity predate Islam by centuries, thus Jewish and Christian claims to land are inherently older. As I've noted previously, the Palestinians based on their previous historical actions do not actually want either land or peace. Both have been offered and then used as platforms to keep attacking Israel.

A world without "Palestinians" (wherin they are absorbed into Egypt or some other Muslim nation) is a more peaceful world solely because any attack on Israel has to come from an established nation, which is far easier to retaliate against than a collection of terrorists and dissidents. But since the other political leaders of the Middle East use the "Palestinian issue" as a bludgeon against Israel and to stir up their own nationalistic support, it's better for them if the Palestinians never get a state for that exact reason. Saudi, Egypt, and Iran never have to bloody their hands, but they receive the benefit of a nationalistic Jew-hating fervor.

Interestingly that didn't work for Armageddonjad this time, which is why his repression in the wake of the "election" has been so ham-handed. We may never find out why he's tried so hard to make this an international incident, though it probably has something to do with the fact he knows his greatest possible prior opposition, the United States, is now run by a Chamberlain-esque moron more interested in apologizing and "talk" than taking any stand whatsoever.

In the Middle East, Western precepts of diplomacy are considered laughable. Just like when Israel signs a "cease-fire" with Hamas it means "free time to resupply weapons and reorganize our terrorist network," Iran views "diplomacy" as "buying time smiling politely and lying through your teeth while expanding the nuclear program." Actually, that's how most dictators operate. Because they employ force and intimidation in the advancement of their goals, those are the only things they understand.
 

Misty

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I'm not sure the Iranian government has had a lot of legitimacy in the international community for quite some time and the nations that we really require to crack down on Iran are ones that don't give a shit about democracy or the legitimacy of that government. I've always viewed the role of their president as being, for the most part, just a puppet representative. We'll have to see how it effects the internal turmoil of Iran if the people don't see it as legitimate though.
You'd be surprised. Many liberal commentators invoke the liberalism of Iran's system when compared to other nations in the Middle East (i.e., Saudi Arabia). Also, European nations have quite a bit invested in Iran, mainly as a counterweight to Russia.
 

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