Headlines Russia invades Ukraine

[boo836]

Lots of distressing stuff

Hey so there hasn't been any discussion of what's happened in Bucha, so I'm going to lay it out (in text, not linking to media for obvious reasons): There was a mass murder campaign waged in a town outside of Ukraine's capital Kyiv which saw corpses of regular civilians (lots of people on bicycles) in the street and hundreds of corpses in a mass grave outside a church in the same town. These civilians were killed intentionally by Chechen forces (Kadyrovtsy) in very horrific ways, including clear signs of torture. Some of the corpses found in the town had their hands bound and gunshots indicating executions. The estimate right now is approximately 300 civilians murdered but that number is likely to grow as more corpses are dug up.

Many of the corpses in the streets were killed by snipers. Just people going about their day, mostly unaware of others being killed because the snipers were far enough away to avoid being detected before it was too late. Some were shot by snipers in their apartments. These attacks on civilians were done out of the amusement of Russian occupiers. Satellite imagery also demonstrates that these crimes occurred when the occupiers held Bucha, contrary to the Russians' assertions that the killings happened after they left.

I've dealt with a LOT of murder and violence in my studies, but it's always difficult to see stuff like that (which is why I'm not linking to anything that might lead anyone on the site to those images). It also does not portend well that the Kremlin is heavily investing in denialist narratives. What happened was straight-up Nazi behaviour that the Kremlin is now absurdly trying to blame on Ukrainians.

 

[Gekokeso]

Lots of distressing stuff

Hey so there hasn't been any discussion of what's happened in Bucha, so I'm going to lay it out (in text, not linking to media for obvious reasons): There was a mass murder campaign waged in a town outside of Ukraine's capital Kyiv which saw corpses of regular civilians (lots of people on bicycles) in the street and hundreds of corpses in a mass grave outside a church in the same town. These civilians were killed intentionally by Chechen forces (Kadyrovtsy) in very horrific ways, including clear signs of torture. Some of the corpses found in the town had their hands bound and gunshots indicating executions. The estimate right now is approximately 300 civilians murdered but that number is likely to grow as more corpses are dug up.

Many of the corpses in the streets were killed by snipers. Just people going about their day, mostly unaware of others being killed because the snipers were far enough away to avoid being detected before it was too late. Some were shot by snipers in their apartments. These attacks on civilians were done out of the amusement of Russian occupiers. Satellite imagery also demonstrates that these crimes occurred when the occupiers held Bucha, contrary to the Russians' assertions that the killings happened after they left.

I've dealt with a LOT of murder and violence in my studies, but it's always difficult to see stuff like that (which is why I'm not linking to anything that might lead anyone on the site to those images). It also does not portend well that the Kremlin is heavily investing in denialist narratives. What happened was straight-up Nazi behaviour that the Kremlin is now absurdly trying to blame on Ukrainians.

Want to quickly add to this by giving everyone here some advice, don't read spoilers if you are sensitive to horrible topics (I'm not joking):
There have been multiple reports of videos circulating which contain alleged russian soldiers raping toddlers in very graphic detail so for the life of you be extremely careful when doing your own research about the situation. Be conscious this stuff is being constantly spread around whenever you open a link

 

[boo836]

Want to quickly add to this by giving everyone here some advice, don't read spoilers if you are sensitive to horrible topics (I'm not joking):
There have been multiple reports of videos circulating which contain alleged russian soldiers raping toddlers in very graphic detail so for the life of you be extremely careful when doing your own research about the situation. Be conscious this stuff is being constantly spread around whenever you open a link

more distressing stuff, seriously don't read this if you aren't prepared to deal with a lot of horrific violence of various kinds

That's definitely the most horrific and public instance, but there's been various reports of sexual assaults (including on children). It seems this is now the most publicly visible example.

For the past several years Russia had been recruiting some of the vilest degenerates imaginable for its mercenary forces. Neo-Nazis, gangsters, and rapists ARE the Russian Armed Forces. This is what happens when it is allowed to fester, actions straight out of Nazi Germany or Rwanda in 1994.

Something I've always wondered is whether or not the West is going to start engaging in reciprocal hybrid operations against Russia. Currently they answer with their own vectors of attack that mostly differentiate from Russian operations (they're mostly less aggressive and unlikely to merit a kinetic response than Russia's). Given that Russia spent the past several years funding neo-Nazi paramilitaries to disrupt NATO countries, I'm kinda shocked that we (apparently) aren't moving to do the same. We should be financing incursions into Russian territory and sabotage of domestic infrastructure. Start recruiting Ukrainian diaspora, give them SERE and demo training, and hand them maps of pipeline routes, train tracks, bridges, all that fun stuff.

The best thing is that it doesn't amount to a kinetic response, because Russia and the US both set that norm already with the Base.

 

[MrHands]

Russian cruiser Moskva, the ship that communicated with and fired upon "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" Snake island and flagship of the great Baltic fleet, has been sunk by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles. Despite having 6 CWIS anti-missile turrets and a triple-tiered air defense system they were distracted by a Ukrainian drone. Imagine being so cartoonishly incompetent that you let your fleet's command ship get sunk by a nation that has virtually no navy or air force.

Meanwhile the entire north-west theater of the war has been utterly abandoned by the Russians. Following a hasty retreat Ukrainian forces have liberated all areas around Kyiv. While this retreat may allow Russians to free up forces to reinforce the east this also allows Ukraine to do the same. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian volunteers are currently being trained and in a matter of weeks could join the front line to help liberate some areas of the country. Russian losses are substantial and in most areas they are actually outnumbered by Ukrainian defenders.

The Russian economy is in freefall from economic sanctions. Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt payment for the first time in a century. Though the Ruble has somewhat held in value due to extreme government action the economic damage is very real. The war is prohibitively expensive and is pushing Russia to the breaking point. On the other side Ukraine has been granted billions in aid and that number shows no signs of slowing down. There is talks of an eventual Western "Marshall plan" to help Ukraine with post-war reconstruction.

Then we have Sweden and Finland who historically have had policies of neutrality, now on the path to NATO membership. Ukraine itself is pursuing EU membership which could conceivably lead to NATO post-war. Germany is re-arming again (this time it's a good thing) and globally the majority of nations are united against Russia.

It's unrealistic to imagine Ukraine will fully overtake Russia militarily but the pressure is on Putin from all sides to end this war. Ukraine will probably lose Crimea and the Donbass but eventually military casualties, economic woes, and lack of popular support is going to force the Russians back across the border. Hopefully.

 

[boo836]

cw mass death, sexual assault,

The Ukrainian government has updated the death toll of civilians murdered by Russian forces around Kyiv to over 900, including Bucha, there have been reports of women and children as young as 14 being held hostage in basements and being raped, being told by their captors that they wanted to ensure the women and children would not bear Ukrainian children. There's a particularly disgusting intercepted phone call of a soldier and his wife in which his wife is literally encouraging her husband to rape Ukrainian women. War rape is a crime against humanity and a clear sign of genocidal intent.

I don't think I can stress enough that you should be writing to your local representatives and asking them why they are not advocating for a full oil embargo and aggressive measures to cut down the Kremlin's soft power projection

 

[Gekokeso]

Aparently a screenshot from Russian State TV. I would rather hope this is fake but if this is what the russian state literally believes in then we are reaching levels of stupidity i didn't know they were possible.

 

[MrHands]

View attachment 419181
Aparently a screenshot from Russian State TV. I would rather hope this is fake but if this is what the russian state literally believes in then we are reaching levels of stupidity i didn't know they were possible.

I was going to say, there's no way people can be dumb enough to believe this trash, especially in a world of infinite info thanks to the internet.

Then I was like, oh yeah we just had 4 years of Trump. Makes the above image and cult of Putin a lot more believable honestly.

 

[MrHands]

Almost 7 months into the war Ukraine has completely defeated Russians in the Kyiv front, and is now advancing towards Kherson in the south while they are cutting huge holes in the Kharkiv area to the north. If this wasn’t such a huge humanitarian catastrophe it would almost be comical watching the world’s “second strongest” military get completely destroyed by Europe’s poorest country.

 

[willdbeast]

How long until we need to rename this thread "Ukraine-invades-Russia?"

 

[Shedinja-43152]

How long until we need to rename this thread "Ukraine-invades-Russia?"

When this happens will be a third world war.

 

[MrHands]

When this happens will be a third world war.

Two nations European nations fighting isn't WW3. Might as well call Vietnam WW3, or the Iran + Iraq war WW3. Two nations fighting with the backing of other nations sums up most wars.

 

[Divine Retribution]

Maybe I'm being generous but I think the implication is that a Ukrainian invasion of Russia would "force" Putin to go nuclear, and that that very well might lead to Fallout 5: Augmented Reality Edition. I think that's being incredibly reductionist about a situation that defies all attempts to simplify it, but I wouldn't be entirely comfortable dismissing it as a possibility altogether. Putin is clearly leaning very heavily into madman theory to the point where it's difficult to tell the exact extent to which he actually is a madman.

 

[Shedinja-43152]

Maybe I'm being generous but I think the implication is that a Ukrainian invasion of Russia would "force" Putin to go nuclear, and that that very well might lead to Fallout 5: Augmented Reality Edition. I think that's being incredibly reductionist about a situation that defies all attempts to simplify it, but I wouldn't be entirely comfortable dismissing it as a possibility altogether. Putin is clearly leaning very heavily into madman theory to the point where it's difficult to tell the exact extent to which he actually is a madman.

I think the same, if Russia be invaded they will need to use nuclear weapons, and the Western Don't will allow it so easy and can starts the third world war.

 

[MrHands]

Multiple news sources have cited Russian's military spokesperson who stated Russia is retreating from Kherson to instead reinforce their positions behind the Dniper river. This means Russia is about to lose the only major Ukrainian city they have taken. Presumably this will be done to reinforce the Crimean land bridge at all costs.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...and-politics-4ee517ebe3304721cf8f38c1b73c34d0

tl;dr Russia is getting bent over a table and pounded by Europe's poorest nation.

 

[Cousiin]

tl;dr Russia is getting bent over a table and pounded by Europe's poorest nation.

Well tbh, Russia is quite a poor country too: it's has GDP of Italy even tho the country is the size of Pluto, it's just that almost every dictatorship likes to show the muscles and try to appear way more frightening than they actually are, Putin's Russia is no exception to that

 

[MrHands]

Well tbh, Russia is quite a poor country too: it's has GDP of Italy even tho the country is the size of Pluto, it's just that almost every dictatorship likes to show the muscles and try to appear way more frightening than they actually are, Putin's Russia is no exception to that

In terms of GDP per capita there are a dozen or so European nations below Russia. In terms of total economic output Russia is 5th highest in Europe and 11th highest in the world lol. They are also nominally the world's second largest army with tech that is comparable and in some ways (air defense, artillery) even exceeds western armies. For a global power to get its ass handed to it so hard by the literal poorest nation in Europe (besides Moldova I guess) means something went terribly, terribly wrong. For everyone else's benefit of course! It's almost magical how incompetently Russia has handled this war.

 

[STEELDRAGON]

At this point the war is just continuing to escalate and wouldn't be surprised in the next year or so if Putin decides to wipe Ukraine off the map with nukes and potentially set off the worst war the world has ever seen. The west has been continually pushing Putins buttons and it's not looking good. Hopefully some sort of peace deal can be made before then.

 

[Gekokeso]

At this point the war is just continuing to escalate and wouldn't be surprised in the next year or so if Putin decides to wipe Ukraine off the map with nukes and potentially set off the worst war the world has ever seen. The west has been continually pushing Putins buttons and it's not looking good. Hopefully some sort of peace deal can be made before then.

With what army lol?

This is not even close to some of the biggest threats the defunct Soviet army faced (see Vietnam war or Korean war) and even then when they were a superpower in those times that could afford to fight equal foot to the west they still didn't use their nukes. They are basically reduced to empty threats that amount to nothing since Russians very well know the second a nuke is used is the second Russia goes down in nuclear hell, they are the biggest losers of a nuclear war. They are basically best Korea 2, electric boogaloo.

There is no peace deal. Ukrainians have all the right to fight to the last Ukrainian to get their land back, THEY want to fight to regain their land back. The only way for peace is if Russia stops this farce and leaves Ukraine, period. The west can't force Ukraine to accept cohesions just so Russia can safe face, colonialism is unacceptable on a modern world.

 

[willdbeast]

At this point the war is just continuing to escalate and wouldn't be surprised in the next year or so if Putin decides to wipe Ukraine off the map with nukes and potentially set off the worst war the world has ever seen. The west has been continually pushing Putins buttons and it's not looking good. Hopefully some sort of peace deal can be made before then.

The problem is there is absolutely nothing that Russia can agree to that means a damn to Ukraine. If they're just gonna invade for literally no reason then there is absolutely no way they'll stick to any agreement anyway unless they're forced to, and if they're forced to the agreement is irrelevant except for PR

 

[Always!]

The problem is there is absolutely nothing that Russia can agree to that means a damn to Ukraine. If they're just gonna invade for literally no reason then there is absolutely no way they'll stick to any agreement anyway unless they're forced to, and if they're forced to the agreement is irrelevant except for PR

Is this how people unironically see Russia's invasion? Some completely unprovoked attack on Ukrainians who were just minding their own business? No broader geopolitical events, no principal events leading all the way back to 2014, nothing to see?

This is a completely reductive (and subsequently incorrect) view of the conflict, but I suppose I cannot really blame people. It's easy to read the news, see "Has Putin gone mad?!", "Reports indicate Putin's mental state is..." and so on, and then simply come to the conclusion that Vladimir Putin is the next Hitler, who desires to make war because it runs in his Russian blood (a common theme on social media nowadays). I think the attitude of Western governments towards the idea of some kind of peace settlement gives one a very good idea of the way information is biased to produce outcomes and sentiments in the general populace; the fiasco regarding the United States' progressives of the Democratic Party and their open letter for peace is a very good example of this.

 

[MrHands]

Not hard to see the reality. Putin and Russia are desperately trying to slurp up the last bit of unclaimed influence there is left to take post Soviet Union. As it turns out while the West may be far from perfect, falling under Western influence leads to relative economical prosperity, social + political freedoms, and military security. Look at even Germany, sitting on its ass sucking up Russian gas while the world's largest military alliance protects it from *checks notes* Russia. As it turns out the sweet supple teat of capitalism and western military alliances offers much more than Russia can.

The West (and most of the world, partially even including China of all fucking places) has condemned this invasion as Russian aggression. Which it is, and any claims otherwise are hilarious and wrong. No one is forcing these nations to join NATO, they just have to choose between the West, where things are pretty good, the East, where poverty is rampant and freedom is restricted, or nothing, where things somehow get even worse. Boo hoo, NATO took all of Russia's friends. Maybe that means the problem is you, Russia.

Putin launched an invasion hoping Ukraine would quickly collapse, leaving Ukraine to be ripe for annexation or puppeteering. Both of which failed and he got bogged down a few hundred miles from the border and has been losing ground ever since. With Western arms and Ukrainian willpower to continue fighting victory seems inevitable. Perhaps day 1 the invasion seemed like it would be a repeat of 2014's Crimea annexation. But Ukraine stood in the face of aggression and the West rallied behind the threat of a dictatorship. More than half a year on Russia has now managed to retreat from every major combat zone and shows no signs of slowing down.

Oh but NUKES. No lol, the West and Russia has been in constant "if you do this we do this, and we will be honest because no one actually wants an atomic holocaust" communication. If Russia uses nukes the West will sink any Russian vessel in the Caspian Sea and begin open season on any living Russian still in Ukraine. Nukes will "cross the line" and ignoring shitty news websites behind closed doors secret communication penalties have been made clear. Russia's only hope for anything beyond defeat or nuclear Armageddon is to negotiate peace. They can try to gain the upper hand and get a better peace deal, or try and find themselves losing only to accept a worse one. But any idiot knows both options are better than Moscow vanishing forever beneath a nuclear mushroom cloud.

In short, it's beneficial for both sides to continue the status quo. Russia doesn't want to escalate because the result will range from NATO involvement, which it will lose, to nuclear war, which everyone loses and they can't de-escalate because that's admitting Europe's poorest nation kicked their ass. The West doesn't want to escalate or de-escalate because it is winning, and Ukraine wants to fight. The only realistic end to this is Ukraine and Russia striking a peace deal, which seems unlikely at the time. But as long as arms continue and Ukraine's willingness to fight continues, they will push Russia further and further from their land.

Oh and before anyone tries to claim "this is my western view, globally opinions are mixed!"

Blue blames / condemns Russia, Orange blames Ukraine / NATO. Dark grey have remained neutral. China in particular has kind of flipped between condemning Russia but also condemning NATO expansion.

 

[willdbeast]

Is this how people unironically see Russia's invasion? Some completely unprovoked attack on Ukrainians who were just minding their own business? No broader geopolitical events, no principal events leading all the way back to 2014, nothing to see?

It's one thing to say there are wider reasons for poor relations, and there are reasons (of debatable legitimacy) for russia's misgivings, and of course the political situation in Russia is its own factor. But it's an entirely different thing to suggest these in any way are valid reasons for an invasion...

 

[Always!]

It's one thing to say there are wider reasons for poor relations, and there are reasons (of debatable legitimacy) for russia's misgivings, and of course the political situation in Russia is its own factor. But it's an entirely different thing to suggest these in any way are valid reasons for an invasion...

You have just clearly demonstrated that Russia did not invade "for literally no reason". Whether the reasons themselves are valid or invalid are an entirely separate issue and a shifting of the goalposts. As a simple example, if Russia has security concerns, we can evaluate (with whatever limited information we have) whether or not they are credible enough to justify an invasion. What we cannot say is that Russia has no security concerns and decided to invade "for literally no reason". Governments have reasons for doing such a paramount thing as going to war. The Unites States invaded Iraq and caused the deaths of somewhere between 400000 to 1 million Iraqis; we criticize the reasons for the invasion but do not say that there were none.

This distinction is important because it is the premise of the argument that there can be no peace, as your textbook previous post. If Russia has no reason to invade, then of course they will never accept any kind of peace deal; there is "no reason" that they would stop the invasion! But if there are reasons to invade, valid or invalid, then there is at least some possible hope that Russia and Ukraine may acquiesce to some kind of peace deal, where the concerns of both sides may satisfactorily be met. Indeed, there was some hope for this earlier on, but Western governments unquestionably do not want this and have made clear that this is not the path forward (seen by intentionally trying to influence the peace process and making claims about "fighting to the last Ukrainian").

 

[MrHands]

The Unites States invaded Iraq and caused the deaths of somewhere between 400000 to 1 million Iraqis; we criticize the reasons for the invasion but do not say that there were none.

Just want to point out that while the Iraq war was undeniably not excusable, the death toll estimates range from 100,000 to 1,000,000 with the median number somewhere around 200k. The 1 million dead statistic came from one single source, the Opinion Research Business (ORB) poll, who got their results by calling 2,000 random families and asking if someone they know had died, and scaling those results to the whole country. While it isn't impossible that the number is 1 million, this extreme outlier points more towards this polling method being flawed. AP news reported ~100k, Iraqi Health Ministry reported 87k, Iraq Body Count reported 200k, The World Health Organization counted 151k, Iraq war logs (wikileaks) reported 176k etc. I'm not saying it can't be 1 million, it certainly could even be higher! But there's many different independent numbers and most of them point to a much lower number. Cherry picking the high end is somewhat disingenuous and a bit disrespectful to the people who actually died by manipulating their deaths to prove a political point.

As for what Russia wants:

On Feb 24th Putin's official reasoning for war was to demilitarize and "de-nazify" Ukraine. Yes it was absolutely due to Russian security concerns over the expansion of NATO. Yeah if most of South America united in a defensive alliance against the US it would be concerning. In the 90s there was talk over if NATO was even necessary. Russia was offered a spot in the international community. But then, again and again, they used military might to enforce their will on their neighbors. Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Tajikistan, Dagestan, Chechnya and the North Caucasus have all seen Russian military intervention in one way or another. Some of which multiple times! So while Russia's security concerns are at least vaguely understandable, the even more urgent security concerns of many ex-Soviet states are somewhat more understandable. Joining NATO gave these nations a security guarantee. Sorry that NATO took all your friends Russia, that probably means you're the problem.

As for de-nazification well, that's been unfounded. It's true Ukraine has more of a slightly positive history with the Nazis than most of Europe. In WW2 to some the Nazis were liberators. Stalin was a brutal dictator and in some ways the Germans weren't quite as bad. To many it was choosing between the lesser of two bad options. But fast forward to the present and and major remains of the Nazis has long since been eliminated. Though the Azov Battalion HAS had credible connections to neo-nazis well... I mean so has Trump. So has some element of every major government. But hey at least unlike Trump Zelensky has the balls to denounce Nazism. However, an opinion piece by state-run news agency Ria Novosti made clear that "denazification is inevitably also de-Ukrainisation" - in effect erasing the modern state. Ukrainian children have been reported being shipped off en-mass to Russia which as defined by the UN, is textbook genocide.

A month into the invasion, Russia pulled back from Kyiv and declared its main goal was the "liberation of Donbas". The Kremlin claimed the "demilitarization" campaign was successful. I think 6+ months later most people would disagree with this statement.

On 30 September, Russia annexed four oblasts of Ukraine, shifting the goals of the invasion again to more blatant territory claims.

I don't know, seems like a classic case of dictator trying to retain power. Russia's influence has diminished drastically since the fall of the Soviet Union. If the options are fall under western influence, or go out kicking and screaming, it appears Putin is attempting the latter.

 

[Aqua Jet]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-missiles-poland-nato-1.6652345

This is kind of relevant?