Posted this on discord and thought it might be fun to cover here too:
Road to the Finals
*based on this moment in Week 7 where Articunos are 6-2 vs Hypnos and Victreebels are 5-1 vs Dewgongs
Articunos:
Clinched finals, the rest of this week and next week no longer matter for us. Go team!
Hypnos:
If Dewgongs lose to Victreebels this week: A win or tie next week vs Victreebels clinches finals.
If Dewgongs tie this week: Hypnos need a win vs Victreebels to guarantee finals regardless of Articunos vs Dewgongs outcome. If Hypnos tie and Dewgongs tie or lose vs Articunos, Hypnos make finals.
Hypnos cannot make finals if they lose next week; Victreebels always overtake them in points on a win, 5.5 to 5 at worst.
All in all, they have pretty favorable odds and the easiest path into the finals; just win (or probably tie) one week and that's it. Hypnos fully control their destiny here.
Victreebels:
If Victreebels beat Dewgongs this week: A win vs Hypnos next week clinches finals.
If Victreebels and Dewgongs tie this week: Victreebels need to beat Hypnos next week AND need one of the following:
1. Dewgongs lose to Articunos
2. Dewgongs tie with Articunos AND Victreebels win with a differential of at least +3
3. Dewgongs tie with Articunos AND Victreebels win with a differential of at least +2 AND win a tiebreaker against Dewgongs
Victreebels cannot make finals if they lose or tie next week; regardless of the outcome of this week, Hypnos have 5 points and Victreebels will have 4.5 at most, meaning they always need to beat Hypnos to make it in.
Overall they have solid odds, but not making it in on a tie hurts in a tour where very few blowouts have happened. The only two wins of greater than 6-4 before this week were Hypnos 8-2 Articunos in Week 4 and Dewgongs 7-3 Primeapes in Week 5; depending on how this week goes, we may add one or two more to that. Still, Vics are fully in control of their destiny as of now and only lose control if they let Dewgongs make an embarrassing comeback; one more win this week and six wins next week guarantees playoffs regardless of anything.
Dewgongs:
First off, Dewgongs MUST tie this week to stay in, as a prerequisite. Assuming that happens, they also practically MUST beat Articunos next week to make finals. There is one edge case where they make it on a tie next week that I'll cover.
If Dewgongs beat Articunos: This puts Dewgongs at 6.5 points. Hypnos must lose to or tie Victreebels for Dewgongs to make finals.
If Dewgongs tie Articunos: In this case, Dewgongs need:
1. Victreebels beat Hypnos exactly 6-4. This puts both Dewgongs and Victreebels at 5.5 points with a differential of +2.
2. Dewgongs beat Victreebels in the resultant tiebreaker.
Dewgongs cannot make finals if they lose this week or next week, and they cannot make finals if Hypnos win next week.
Dewgongs have it the hardest; they do not control their destiny. Even if they win all 4 remaining games this week and all 10 next week, they still do not make it if Hypnos win, since Hypnos have more points than them regardless of this week's outcome. For them to make finals here requires a miracle.
The short version:
It's almost certainly Articunos vs (winner of Hypnos vs Victreebels), with Hypnos making it through on a tie. If Dewgongs make a sick comeback this week, there's some other possibilities.
Excited for the finals!