Hipmonlee
Have a nice day
Hi, I'm working on the prediction part of my RBY guide, and I think I am wrong about imperfect information games, so if anyone can correct me I'd appreciate it.
So I am using the example of Countering Snorlax with a Chansey.
So assuming Chansey has Counter and Lax has Body Slam and Earthquake we have a matrix, and slotting in some rough estimate payoffs we get a matrix that looks something along the lines of this:
Ok, but in the scenario where Chansey doesnt have Counter and we have something like:
So my understanding had been that if you knew that the Chansey has a 25% chance of having Counter you could combine these two together, and you would end up with something like this:
And get Lax should Body Slam 31% of the time and Chansey should...
And once I got around to writing this out I realised at this point that this probably doesnt really actually make sense. Because the Chansey user knows whether or not Chansey has Counter.
I know that the correct way to solve this is to expand this out into a single matrix, but the game of Chansey selecting whether or not to run Counter is going to be far too complex to be of any practical benefit. So does anyone know how I could include a piece of knowledge like 25% of Chanseys will run counter into this kind of game?
So I am using the example of Countering Snorlax with a Chansey.
So assuming Chansey has Counter and Lax has Body Slam and Earthquake we have a matrix, and slotting in some rough estimate payoffs we get a matrix that looks something along the lines of this:
Chansey Counter | Chansey switch to Exeggutor | |
Lax Body Slam | -15 | 5 |
Lax Earthquake | 6 | 0 |
Ok, but in the scenario where Chansey doesnt have Counter and we have something like:
Chansey switch Rhydon | Chansey switch Exeggutor | |
Lax Body Slam | -2 | 5 |
Lax Earthquake | 4 | 0 |
So my understanding had been that if you knew that the Chansey has a 25% chance of having Counter you could combine these two together, and you would end up with something like this:
Chansey Counter or switch to Rhydon | Chansey switch Exeggutor | |
Lax Body Slam | (-15*.25) + (-2*.75) = -5.25 | 5 |
Lax Earthquake | (6*.25) + (4*.75) = 4.5 | 0 |
And once I got around to writing this out I realised at this point that this probably doesnt really actually make sense. Because the Chansey user knows whether or not Chansey has Counter.
I know that the correct way to solve this is to expand this out into a single matrix, but the game of Chansey selecting whether or not to run Counter is going to be far too complex to be of any practical benefit. So does anyone know how I could include a piece of knowledge like 25% of Chanseys will run counter into this kind of game?