Might as well finally throw my 2 cents in a massive post and not in discord streams of consciousness like I usually do!
The Mario Approach
So this is something I've been saying since Pokemon Let's Go was announced 6 years ago (good lord time flies!), and I think this announcement actually changes my viewpoint on this a bit! So to quickly explain what the "Mario approach" is: its how I describe how Nintendo releases a lot of mainline Mario games over a period of time, but each of them are like distinct forks of the series. To illustrate what I mean, let me lay out all the games Nintendo considers "mainline Mario games"!
Super Mario Bros, aka the "classic 2D style": Super Mario Bros, Lost Levels, Super Mario Bros 3, Super Mario Land, Super Mario Land 2, Super Mario World, New Super Mario Bros, New Super Mario Bros Wii, New Super Mario Bros 2, New Super Mario Bros U, Super Mario Bros Wonder
The Super Mario 64 style, aka "Sandbox Mario": Super Mario 64, Super Mario Sunshine, Super Mario Odyssey
Galaxy: Super Mario Galaxy, Super Mario Galaxy 2
Linear 3D Mario: Super Mario 3D Land, Super Mario 3D World (very closely related to the Galaxy subseries)
Maker: Super Mario Maker, Super Mario Maker for 3DS, Super Mario Maker 2
Other Forks that led to unrelated series: Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island, Super Mario Land 3: Wario Land (note I'm not sure Nintendo considers Wario Land a mainline Mario, but including it because I'd argue it shares a lot of DNA with it design wise!)
Stuff that Nintendo considers mainline but hasn't had follow ups: Super Mario Bros 2 USA, Super Mario Run, Bowser's Fury, Super Mario Bros 35 (still bitter this closed down!)
Horrible Game That Has The Hallmarks Of a Mainline Mario, But Nintendo Pretends Doesn't Exist: Super Mario Bros Special (not getting into this right now lmao)
So Mario has a lot of distinct subseries, and they aren't cordoned off from each other: they have direct impacts on each other! For example, the 2D Mario games starting with New Super Mario Bros adopted the Ground Pound from Yoshi's Island (there's a chance it was a Super Mario 64 idea first considering the dev history of those two games, that's a long story lol), and the wall jump from Super Mario 64. Super Mario Galaxy 2, 3D Land, and 3D World take heavy cues from their level design approach from New Super Mario Bros Wii, and Super Mario Bros Wonder gates off courses with Wonder Seeds akin to how Super Mario 64 gates off areas with Power Stars. Even Super Mario Odyssey was impacted, having several linear sections directly inspired by Super Mario 3D World!
This also pays dividends beyond creativity:
if we look at the sales figures of Switch mainline Mario games on Install base(they're pretty reliable!), so Super Mario Odyssey, New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe, Super Mario Maker 2, Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury, and Super Mario Bros. Wonder...
Literally all of those except Super Mario Maker 2 have passed 10 million units in sales, and Mario Maker 2 is pretty close at 8.42 million unites too!
How did I think this applied to Pokemon?
OK enough talking about Mario (I really need an outlet to talk about this kind of stuff more besides Discord lol), let's get back to how this relates to Pokemon, and Legends Z-A in particular!
I thought the Switch era of Pokemon has been taking a similar approach to Mario, trying to established various different "takes" on Pokemon, though its at a way earlier stage of this than Mario so I wasn't sure TPC and Gamefreak have quite figured out how this is going to work yet! Let's organize Pokemon games in a similar way to Mario to see what I mean!
"Traditional Mainline Gens": RGBY, GSC, RSE / FRLG, DPP / HGSS, BW / B2W2, XY / ORAS, SM / USUM, SwSh (sorta, more on this in a bit!), BDSP
Open World Mainline Gens: Scarlet / Violet (there's a reason I section this off, hold tight!)
Let's Go: Let's Go Pikachu / Eevee
Legends: Arceus, Z-A
Pokemon Go??? (Probably doesn't count but it interacts so much with the mainline games now, and has arguably influenced several, so I figured I should bring it up!)
Colloseum Games: Colloseum, XD (these might not really count, but they're distinct enough that I might as well lol)
So besides the Colloseum games (I don't think they were THAT successful but the Gamecube might have been part of the problem there lol), notice how all the other forks don't have a lot of games in them yet... they comprise over HALF of the Switch's mainline Pokemon games (with SwSh and BDSP being the traditional format with some caveats, and Let's Go, Arceus, SV, and likely Z-A having very different gameplay structures / loops than the traditional games). I don't think this is a mistake! With longer console generations meaning we get more Pokemon games on one console, PLUS the idea of a traditional "3rd version" with a similar game-structure to the previous game making much more sense as DLC rather than a 60$ purchase,
Pokemon taking this "forked" approach to mainline games seems like a necessary adaption to the Switch's more consolized environment compared to say, the 3DS or Game Boy Advance, it lets them release a lot of Pokemon games without getting a ton of "well this seems like the same thing I bought 2 years ago" that happened a lot with older Pokemon releases!
You see cross pollination just like Mario too! So for example, iirc in interviews for Sword and Shield, Let's Go having wandering overworld Pokemon is the stated reason why SwSh had them, PLA and SV had a lot of influence on each other with both having a heavy emphasis on crafting, hiding secret collectibles like a lot of open-ish games do, and letting you throw your Pokemon out of their balls, but also different approaches (such as PLA letting you directly aim your Pokeball and catch outside of battle VS. SV just using it as another means to enter battle / get back throws to catch mons off guard)
How Does Legends Z-A Fit In This?
Honestly that's my biggest question. If you had asked me "what makes a Pokemon Legends game" based off of just PLA, and like, stripped away any of the flavor of the setting and the likes: I'd say Pokemon Legends is a more action-based approached to Pokemon, making battling not required if you're stealthy or strategic enough in a lot of instances, way less focus on trainer battles, and a big focus on catching TONS of Pokemon even if you already caught them before, sorta like Let's Go or Go! And probably most importantly to a lot of us: a heavy de-emphasis on the multiplayer aspects of Pokemon.
To be clear, the teaser reveal for Legends Z-A could be anything beyond "its about redeveloping Lumiose City" in terms of gameplay. Like say, maybe it's still more action oriented than other Pokemon games, maybe there's a big emphasis on getting multiples of the same creature, maybe its still a heavily single player focused experience...
However, I think it's pretty likely that PLZA is once again Gamefreak throwing a curve ball in a lot of our "headcannon patterns" for the series. Like if you ever look at the bazillion of fake Pokemon rumors floating around the internet: look how many of them boiled down to "Pokemon Legends Johto / Unova" or "also BW reamkes by Illca". Like, that makes sense on a surface level: its continuing the stuff Gamefreak, TPC, and Nintendo have done in the past. I don't think ANYONE expected the 2nd Pokemon Legends game to be about redeveloping Lumiose City (even if the XY legends being missing in SV was pretty suspicious in retrospect lol)!
It really makes me question what exactly the "hallmarks" of a Pokemon Legend games is, if there even are any beyond "experimental revisit of past Pokemon regions". Sure, while it's not impossible for a Pokemon game based around a big city to have action gameplay, I can't help but think that the way that trailer was made to almost make us question what time period it took place in, and how they hid the fact it was Lumiose until the end for all but the most hardcore Pokemon nuts with showing the tower and confirming the name... if I were a betting man, I think the point of that trailer beyond "make it vague so people discuss it online more" (which to be clear I totally bet was intentional lol) was to show that
just because LZA is a Legends game, doesn't mean it's going to be very similar to the last one!
It makes me think that while Gamefreak is probably full-steam ahead with making sure that future Pokemon games heavily differentiate each other in terms of gameplay structure like the Switch-era has, I'm not sure if they're trying to develop distinct forks like Mario. Instead, I'm imagining it more like branches off a tree, with the tree being the big new generation starting games like Sword / Shield and Scarlet / Violet, and stuff like Pokemon Legends being distinct branches in different directions that end up contributing to the "tree" as a whole for the next starting generations.
I have one other hypothesis to share though: if they are still using the Mario strategy, it could simply be going all the way, where a lot of forks only get one entry per console. So for example, maybe the reason why we haven't gotten a new Let's Go yet, is because its being saved for the Switch 2. Mario does this kind of stuff all the time, so I wouldn't be too surprised if Pokemon tried it!
What Does This Make Me Expect Out of Legends Z-A?
Since the trailer was so vague, I'm having a hard time really guessing what exactly they're going for beyond what they said in the trailer, "urban redevelopment of Lumiose", and "Mega Evolutions are back
". But to take an even more speculatory tone, let me make some guesses that'll be fun to revisit next year!
- Whatever gameplay style Legends Z-A focuses on, wether it sticking close to the original Legends but with different flavoring, or maybe focusing on city-building aspects,
some aspects of the gameplay loop will give us a decent preview on what Gen 10's direction will be, like how PLA's focus on open areas and crafting ended up being major aspects of Scarlet and Violet!
- Since the trailer and game seem to be SO focused on "Lumiose City is the setting", while sure that could mean something like how Jubilife Village was the hub of PLA,
I think that it hints towards Gamefreak wanting to focus on more lively cities and human settlements compared to past games, with Scarlet and Violet in particular being rather underdeveloped in this area! No idea if they'll focus on this for Gen 10 or not, but I think it's possible!
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I have a feeling Mega Evolutions will have some new tie-in to the battle system, and won't work like they did in previous games. There's no guarantee we'll have hold items either (or even abilities, since something like Aegislash can always be handled like Regigigas was in PLA!), since Let's Go made Mega Stones a key item. Maybe a resource like Mega Energy in Pokemon Go, or some sort of meter you build up in battle. Regardless, Mega Evolutions being teased in the trailer like that makes me think there's more to it beyond "hey they're back!"
- This one isn't that crazy of a guess, but
I bet Mega Stones will be used as a carrot on a stick for sidequests. Pokemon Legends had a much bigger focus on sidequests than most Pokemon games, but sometimes the rewards weren't really all that incredible beyond "nice more resources". With Mega Stones, you got a REAL good incentive to finish sidequests!
- On that note, continuing the Mega Evolution speculation:
I would be unsurprised if Agile and Strong Styles were gone. Beyond making sure PLA is distinct in its battle systems (because I'm sure Nintendo wants to sell more of that game too lol), I'm guessing they don't want an old mechanic like that to take away from whatever new stuff they got cooked up!
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I'm betting that this game will not actually feature the entire Kalos Dex. My reasoning is just the sheer size: if we include every Pokemon that gets a Mega Evolution, we're talking 467 Pokemon here (the Kalos Dex plus the 10 Pokemon that got Mega Evos in ORAS that weren't in the Kalos Dex, so Latias / Latios / Sceptile / Blaziken / Swampert / Camerupt / Glalie / Metagross / Rayquaza / Lopunny), and that's not even counting Groudon + Kyogre if Primal Reversion gets pulled into the mix!
This is almost DOUBLE the size of the Pokemon Legends Arceus Dex without any new Pokemon / regional formes that this game could add! I mean hey, maybe the Pokemon site is not kidding around by calling it an ambitious game! But I don't think they're obligated to cover the entire Kalos dex. If I were to make a bet...
I think they'll at least include all gen 6 newcomers, and every Pokemon already in the Kalos dex that Mega Evolves. They might also include the ORAS Mega Evolutions in sorta contrived ways, like how Pokemon Legends Arceus used time distortions to rope the fossils and Porygon line in!