Win or lose, Lakers are going to keep this team together (resign odom and ariza). The only way that is going to fall through is if Odom wants a starting role, and wont accept start spots/6th man role. Ariza is a guarenteed resign, just by how well he has improved this year. Also, im pretty sure Kobe also has an option to opt out this year, but he will stay a Laker until he retires.
As for Cavs + Shaq, that wont have as big of an impact as people would think. Shaq can still play, and is definitely a better option then Z. Theres still a hole that will leave them vulnerable to the Magic, the PF position. Varajao is not a good big man, he relies on flopping when his terrible D is exposed. Z cant play the 4, neither can Shaq. Plus with Big Ben to be involved in the Shaq trade, he wont be there to play the 4.