To start this discussion out on the right foot I see no better place to look than at the 15 most popular leads currently.
- Gyarados (13090 leads)
- Gengar (12669 leads)
- Bronzong (11696 leads)
- Tyranitar (10024 leads)
- Salamence (9885 leads)
- Hippowdon (8437 leads)
- Ninjask (6880 leads)
- Yanmega (6196 leads)
- Abomasnow (6103 leads)
- Weavile (5876 leads)
- Metagross (5798 leads)
- Roserade (5767 leads)
- Infernape (5637 leads)
- Jolteon (5636 leads)
- Breloom (4933 leads)
1. Gyarados isn't staying in, I don't think. If it is, I'd think it'd be more inclined to Dragon Dance than attack straight up, even though DDing first turn isn't really the best way to start a battle—I would hope that Gyarados is so popular as a lead because of Intimidate. This is a
stay and free LK.
2. Gengar is a jerk and makes a case for
Protect on Jynx as the filler attack. If it wants to stay in it's either going to Shadow Ball or use Hypnosis, neither of which Jynx likes. Neither one really tip Gengar's hand to whether or not it carries a Focus Sash, but what else can you do? Psychic sucks as a filler attack and even Fake Out won't work since Gengar is a Ghost type. Jynx may be better off
switching and having a better filler attack, which we'll try to pinpoint going down the list of other popular leads.
3. Bronzong is a loser and should be kissed by a REAL man's Psychic type, or something.
Stay in and LK—Jynx rules and Bronzong "can't do anything", which is usually a silly thing to say but in this case indicates that Lovely Kiss is a great move that gives Jynx the advantage over a slower pokemon. Yes, the threat of Gyro Ball is there, but I would think that Bronzong is either going to stay in and use Hypnosis or switch out, which is fine because whatever is coming in is likely going to be put to sleep (unless it's Honchkrow oh no).
4. Tyranitar. Fun matchup, huh? You don't really want to switch because the threat of Pursuit looms as always, but you aren't even assured to OHKO with Focus Blast at 329 SpA, which does 93-111% to 342HP/354SpD (Sandstorm boost) and 79-94% to 404HP variants, assuming it hits with its crappy accuracy. I'd suggest
staying in to LK, because 75% is better than nothing (or whatever unfavorable percentage there is of FB killing a Tyra that has to have 342HP [it's around 42% but Tyra could have 404HP so yeah]). You should probably have a weather changer on your team to support Jynx later in the battle, ideally Abomasnow.
5. Salamence. Easiest
stay and LK in the world. You may be tempted to Ice Beam, and I don't advise against it really, but I would think that most smart battlers aren't leaving a Salamence in on a fast, STAB Ice Beam. If you do decide to IB, you don't care if Weavile or Blissey comes in, because you have a Focus Sash and Counter or can just switch out of Blissey with your Sash intact.
6. Hippowdon actually isn't guaranteed to be OHKOed by a 329 SpA STAB Ice Beam (it does 88-105% to 420HP/180SpD), but I think it'd be crazy to stay in. Your Sash, however, would be ruined if YOU stayed in, unless for some reason they decide to
switch to Abomasnow, which is coincidentally what I would suggest you yourself both have on your team and do in this Jynx-Hippo lead matchup. If you don't have one you should have a weather changer regardless.
7. Ninjask you may want to
stay in and Ice Beam on, cause if they're smart they are going to pass to a Smeargle that is virtually never fainted by a 329 SpA STAB IB (it does 85.03-100.32% to 314HP/126SpD) and that is going to Spore. But Smeargle won't be able to Belly Drum or Sub really do anything that it normally does that allows Baton Pass teams to be so effective.
It really depends on what kind of BP team they have, but standing tall and proud and Ice Beaming like a black woman of dignity and poise and um superpowers is the way to deal with lead Ninjask. It will die if it stays in to X-Scissor or something if it doesn't have a Sash of its own, and if it is Sashed, it will likely Swords Dance first turn, then pass second turn which you can't really do anything about...until they try to pass to a physical attacker that you will promptly Counter. (unless they pass to Tyranitar which actually isn't that bad an idea if you think about it haha)
8. Yanmega is going to Protect and then it *should* use Bug Buzz after its speed boost, which will OHKO Jynx (or think it's going to, not knowing about her Sash) instead of using Hypnosis, but that's the old prediction debate coming up again. I would think that if you stay in to IB as it Protects, it would be much more inclined to use Bug Buzz and not Hypnosis the next turn, though. If you want to trade your Sash for a kill on Yanmega you can do that, but I would just
switch to a Yanmega counter instead of trading (because for all you know it's using a Sash too, as is recommended in its analysis).
9. Abomasnow has no real business staying in on you, so
stay in and use LK. Even if you had Blizzard over Ice Beam there is no way you'd OHKO Abomasnow's decent defenses even if it stayed in. More importantly, an opponent using Abomasnow likely has some more Ice pokemon up his or her sleeve that benefit from the Hail, so a case for either
HP Fire or
Focus Blast can be made in the filler spot, though if you go with Focus Blast you may still want to use Lovely Kiss not only for the 5% better accuracy in hitting Abomasnow but because even a 329 SpA Focus Blast doesn't OHKO the standard 311HP/206SpD guaranteed (88-104%).
10. Weavile goes straight to hell with a Sashed Counter, and is likely the pokemon most likely to fall into this trap.
Stay in and Counter every day of the week. If it gets cute and tries to Swords Dance, you can safely suspect a Sash of its own and use HP Fire or Focus Blast (case for either as fillers) or turn two. While Focus Blast blast has that unattractive 70% accuracy, it has a great shot of taking Weavile down to at least 1HP as it SDes again, afraid you will Counter, doing 97-115% to 272HP/206SpD.
HP Fire only does 57-67%, which of course is the same "guaranteed exactly 2HKO" if Weavile has a Sash which makes a better case for HP Fire but not all Weavile will have a Sash. If it has a CB, it's staying in and will die Turn to your counter. If it has Expert Belt, it's dying turn one to your Counter or SDing turn one to very likely SD turn two again (or even switching, realizing Jynx probably has a Sash), which makes a great case for Focus Blast to kill Weavile because even if it attacks you second turn, if you use HP Fire you are never killing it without a CH, both of your Sashes will be gone, and it will have the upper hand it assumed it did before Turn 1. And finally, if it has Life Orb or Lum Berry, it's the same as above with Expert Belt which makes a final case for
Focus Blast as the filler.
11. Metagross is a jerk so
stay in and Counter it. It can Agility or whatever all it wants—you're not switching out, ever. It's either going to Pursuit or use MM, but you really don't care cause you can Counter until it's afraid to Pursuit, at which point you can just switch out in like Turn 4 or 5, or even put it to sleep if you're balla enough. Pursuit isn't very common on non-CB sets so I wouldn't worry about falling to supreme prediction if they guess which turn you're actually going to do something besides Counter. Case for
HP Fire in the filler slot, though most of the time this isn't even a 2HKO (does exactly 50% max to 364HP/216SpD from 329 SpA) so it'd be better used later in the battle rather than in an attempt to 2HKO Metagross straight up.
12. Roserade, lol. Just as in the case of Salamence,
stay in and LK, or Ice Beam if you think they'll stay in. This scenario is a little bit different because Scarf Roserade is actually a viable lead compared to Scarf Salamence (don't use this btw please =/), and this makes a case for
Protect as the filler attack—if they actually stay in to use Sleep Powder (the only thing a Roserade would do if it actually were ballsy enough to stay in), you can safely assume that it is Scarfed, since Jynx's 95 Base Speed conveniently tops the 90 Base Speed of Roserade.
13. Infernape screams
switch, case closed. Don't even attempt to get cute, cause they sure won't.
14. Jolteon also compels you to
switch, since it's either going to Sub or Thunder Wave.
15." Breloom is uber" unless it's up against the awesomeness that is Jynx. Treat this like you would Salamence and
stay in and Lovely Kiss. Even if they have Mach Punch it's only doing 70% max so whatever.
So, if we tally up the cases for the filler attack, we pretty much have a three-way tie at two apiece for Protect, HP Fire and Focus Blast. This isn't taking into account the matchups that will take place, though, and besides, there's no reason not to expand the relatively small sample size to arrive at a better filler. So, after the first 15, we have:
- Crobat (4653 leads), Protect I guess but it's using Hypnosis probably
- Ambipom (4619 leads) Protect to fuck up Fake Out
- Swampert (4509 leads) doesn't matter
- Azelf (4370 leads) Protect I guess
- Forretress (4112 leads) HP Fire, if it doesn't switch (it should but whatever) it would love to either Gyro Ball expecting you to switch or whatever since it resists IB
- Zapdos (3617 leads) Protect I guess
- Togekiss (3556 leads) Protect to scout T-Wave
- Staraptor (3523 leads) doesn't matter
- Porygonz (2944 leads) Protect to see if it's ballsy enough to stay in, indicating a possibly Scarf
- Deoxys-e (2909 leads) Protect I guess, you should probably switch
- Aerodactyl (2719 leads) doesn't matter
- Gliscor (2678 leads) doesn't matter
- Garchomp (2569 leads) Protect if anything to increase chance of confusion after Outrage I guess
- Heracross (2263 leads) Protect, will very likely tell you if Banded or Scarfed
- Heatran (2125 leads) Protect again, similar to the above it will likely tell you if Speced or Scarfed
That really has it leaning towards Protect. HP Fire or Focus Blast would likely be better moves if you want more mileage out of Jynx herself after the initial matchup, but as for as the 30 most popular leads are concerned, Protect is the way to go.
Last, I'll remind you all of the awesomeness that is Forewarn: it will let you know your foe's highest Base Power attack. This is very welcome for a proposed lead, as it will allow Jynx's to help out teammates throughout the battle. If Jynx is Forewarned of Tyranitar's Stone Edge, ithe team knows not to fear Boah. If Forewarned of Earthquake on Salamence, the team can expect a largely physical variant. Et cetera...I think I'm done with my wall of words now, thanks Mekkah.
