Hey.
This thread has already somewhat comfortably answered the question of which format the community should focus on, and when that change should occur; and while it's a pretty conclusive decision by this point, I'd like to explain why I'm excited for [Gen 8] Anything Goes after the release of the Crown Tundra DLC.
To start off, I don't expect everyone to be like me. To expect everyone else to be exhaustively looking forward to a format that we simply just don't know everything about would be foolish. I'd also like to warn that this post will come with substantial assumptions, and won't be completely accurate come December, but I'll ensure I mention this whenever it's a prediction and not something we already know.
I. National Dex - Its Flaws, Where It Falls Short.
National Dex is by Smogon's own definitions, a Pet Mod. It is a bunch of changes made by the metagame's leadership in order to achieve a certain purpose. National Dex AG was initially created and prioritised over Galar Dex AG due to the substantial lack of Pokemon in Galar Dex AG and lack of difference from [Gen 8] Ubers, but this is no longer sufficient reasoning to play some suboptimal accumulation of previous concepts and Pokemon, where we have them interact as how we, an independent community from Game Freak, assume they would interact with each other. This isn't Anything Goes by any means. It is changing the base game, and it's inaccurate in many ways from what it intends to be, the base [Gen 8] Anything Goes metagame with all Pokemon added.
i. Hidden Power, Refresh, Pursuit and other unavailable moves are now available.
This is by far my largest gripe with the existence of our current National Dex AG metagame. Pokemon are gaining popularity in Gen 8 due to moves they shouldn't have access to. My main examples here are Hidden Power Fire Xerneas and Refresh Arceus-Ground. Without these moves, these Pokemon would be substantially worse in practice, used less and a completely different metagame would form. These moves take away the spirit of both Generation 8 and Anything Goes. National Dex and Anything Goes should by definition be conflicting concepts that can never coexist. Anything Goes has a very concrete definition of "anything allowed in the base game can be used". The ability to add moves, Pokemon, etc that don't exist in the base game essentially messes with this definition completely. Can you imagine wanting to use Xerneas anywhere near as often without a way to consistently break Necrozma-DM and Ferrothorn? Can you imagine Arceus-Ground being anywhere near as good as it is now without a way to remove Ho-Oh's and Necrozma-DM's Toxic? We're playing a jumbled mess that doesn't even play well in practice.
To a much lesser extent, cheap but potent Dynamax Pokemon that rely on Hidden Power Flying to sweep such as Thundurus-T, Xurkitree get severely impaired. Dynamax Kyogre also gets substantially worse, as now it has no way to boost Speed. These Pokemon should have never had a way to boost Speed via Dynamax, and reverting to cartridge AG would help alleviate that issue.
II. Removal of Metagame Concepts and Staple Pokémon.
I see the net removal of Mega Evolution and Z-crystals as a net good for the metagame. Let me explain. I believe National Dex at the moment is oversaturated with concepts that contradict each other based off rules we've invented ourselves. There's a substantial power problem in the current National Dex AG metagame. The existence of Megas & Primals & Ultra Necrozma & Z-moves + the metagame's defining concept in Dynamax creates a warped metagame where an overreliance on bulky role compression Pokemon (Zygarde-C, Necrozma-DM and Ho-Oh) with the more reliable ones becoming a virtual requirement on any serious team. Where I think a lot of people mistakingly place this blame is on the existence of Dynamax and how defensive counterplay is essentially required for some of the more potent Dynamax users (Yveltal, Xerneas), but I believe that this blame is misplaced.
When building a standard National Dex AG team at the moment there are simply too many threats to take into account that building anything offensive falls short. For example, take a look at the latest Ladder Tournament games. Linked below are all six semi-final games.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8nationaldexag-1103612291
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8nationaldexag-1103609842
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8nationaldexag-1103608020
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8nationaldexag-1103029878-wffrzmly29h193nua1s9f4f5xe631qxpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8nationaldexag-1103040701
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8nationaldexag-1103051571-ljv2w7j5sp0hwhbc3pzl4pg0smk0xbapw
It says something about our metagame that exactly nine of the twelve teams used here contain Defensive Ho-Oh + Defensive Necrozma-DM. These metagame staples are such efficient glue Pokemon, that building without them /generally/ isn't a good idea. The metagame has been forced to use these Pokemon simply because there's too many offensive powerhouses to take into account. Imagine a metagame where you were no longer forced to account for Dynamax threats PLUS SD Mega Rayquaza, DD Ultra Necrozma, Offensive Primal Groudon and Primal Kyogre. In a dynamax metagame, rid of Mega Rayquaza, 180 Atk/SpA Primals and Z-move abusers, there'd only be three turns of an excessively powerful force, followed by mostly standard power threats. This is by no means a justification for Dynamax as a mechanic, because I do agree that it is in general unhealthy; however, in a metagame such as AG solely worrying about Dynamax is a much preferable alternative to building with all these dumb offensive powerhouses in mind.
Essentially Confirmed Losses.
Groudon-Primal
Rayquaza-Mega
Gengar-Mega
Necrozma-Ultra
Kyogre-Primal
Tyranitar-Mega
Diancie-Mega
Mewtwo-Mega-Y
Sableye-Mega
Here are the Pokémon that we pretty much know won't be around come December. As I stated earlier, I believe the removal of these is a net positive. Many of the offensive Pokemon listed here aren't easily answered. The power creep that we've experienced in previous generations has gotten so bad, that to some point, removing these Pokemon feels like we're removing a large chunk of the offensive power in the metagame, but that truly isn't the case. I for one, will not miss Mega Rayquaza and Mega Gengar, two Pokemon I find to be incredibly unhealthy regardless of the iteration of AG. Even this generation, while Mega Gengar is much worse in terms of viability, it forces many teams to use up their Dynamax in order to solely escape being abused by Encore + Nasty Plot. Primal Groudon and Primal Kyogre restrict the metagame in ways you wouldn't even notice until they're removed, primal weather is overall an unhealthy concept in my mind and I'll be glad when it's gone. There are less important Pokemon here such as Mega Tyranitar, Mega Diancie, Mega Sableye, Mega Mewtwo Y; but are these really the Pokemon you're really going to miss once we transition to a cartridge based metagame?
One of the prevalent points I've seen circulating around earlier in the thread was that the lack of THE metagame staple, Mega Rayquaza, would make AG feel much less like AG. As we've come to conclude in the recent months, Mega Rayquaza, in this NatDex metagame is no longer the potent threat it once was. Neither is Extreme Killer Arceus for what it's worth, who currently relegates in B rank. Relying on the existence of a Pokemon to define a metagame is not a fair measurement by any means. I've consistently backed the point that Anything Goes's identity relies on it staying true to its concept rather than the existence of Mega Rayquaza. Similarly as to how Anything Goes still feels like Anything Goes between ORAS and USUM, despite Darkrai dying a miserable death (probably deserved).
Not Yet Confirmed Inclusions.
Arceus + formes
Deoxys + formes
Amoonguss
Gliscor
Diancie
Smeargle
Vivillon
As of the remaining Pokemon above D rank on the VR, Arceus is the only one that really has me conflicted. The removal of these other Pokemon (while unlikely) would not faze me too much. Smeargle being removed would only be a positive in my eyes, there are other more healthy Pokemon that can boost lots and Baton Pass, or Pokemon that can reliably set Sticky Web. Smeargle just adds something unnecessary in terms of variance (Moody + Spore) which isn't beneficial for the metagame. Vivillon is a similar case, Sleep is an unhealthy mechanic overall, and forcing people to use Butterfree instead helps nerf it just a little bit more.
While I don't see Deoxys, Amoonguss, Gliscor and Diancie to be unhealthy elements in the metagame, I'm not that hard pressed by their loss. I'd predict all of these to be included, but there's just no confirmation yet. As I said earlier, Arceus has me conflicted. On one hand, I think it should be included as I don't see it as an unhealthy element, and it never really has been in my eyes regardless of forme. On the other hand, the metagame would be far more diverse without it. Personally, I'm siding with the fact that I hope they include Arceus for now, but will not be distraught if it's left out.
III. My Substantiated Predictions.
With this comes a multitude of predictions we can make about the upcoming metagame. For the most part, I only see positives. Again, these are only
predictions and shouldn't be used as an argument for whether we should stay with National Dex or not.
The lack of Primal Groudon, Primal Kyogre and Mega Rayquaza allows a lot more freedom for the metagame. Weather teams actually have a place in Anything Goes for the first time. Rain teams might actually see usage. Kyogre is an excellent setter, followed by potent Water-types (see: Urshifu-Rapid-Strike
assumption of stats, Palkia, Nasty Plot Hurricane Tornadus, and Kingdra. Kyogre will see a massive buff in usage and potency due to the lack of Primal Groudon, but I don't see it being overbearing. My basis for a trust in Rain as a potent playstyle is how Kyogre is buffed massively, how the main Water-type wall / Rain-remover is gone, how NP Dynamax Hurricane Tornadus seems incredibly potent. There seems to be a substantial lack of walls for this playstyle and I look forward to seeing how well it works.
This actually allows offense to exist, whether it be with Weather-teams, which actually seem quite potent on paper, or with Sticky Web teams which now have no prevalent Magic Bounce users to worry about due to Mega Pokemon not existing. Balance still sees obvious usage due to how potent defensive Pokemon like Ho-Oh and Necrozma-DM are, but offense is actually made viable. I personally still see balance as the defining playstyle due to how AG works, but I do think finally hyper offense gains some traction again.
Xerneas loses a lot of what it has going for it. Firstly, no Hidden Power Fire means Necrozma-DM walls it somewhat easier, but additionally the inclusion of more checks such as Galarian Slowking
assumption of typing and Heart Swap Baton Pass Magearnaassumption of inclusion make it much easier to justify running less solid defensive counterplay. Physical sets may pick up in usage due to Xerneas now getting Play Rough but most likely won't see much usage due to being walled even easier by Necrozma-DM.
Ho-Oh becomes even more potent on defensive teams due to now gaining access to Fire Spin as a TR. This allows it to wittle down support Pokemon such as Arceus-Ground (who no longer obtains Refresh), or set up with Curse. On Stall, it now has access to Flare Blitz over Sacred Fire, which is notable due to having 24 PP instead of 8. This is probably my only fear with the new inclusions, I'm scared of how this Fire Spin set is going to function and how potent this might be, but I'm probably overreacting. We'll probably look back at this eight months from now and laugh at how silly I was.
Yveltal is still broken, unless some substantial change happens that we're unaware of, but you can't have everything. Diancieassumption of inclusion might like using its newfound moves like Baton Pass to become less passive, and hence not as weak a Pokemon choice as it currently is but it would still be hard to justify. I feel like Yveltal also gets hurt a little in viability if the metagame were to shift more towards hyper offense, but I can't really say this with certainty.
I'm going to abstain from making further predictions about Urshifu (and their GMax formes), Calyrex, New Pokemon, New formes as we simply don't know enough yet for me to accurately gauge their impact on our metagame. I am really looking forward to seeing how all these new threats play out.
IV. Conclusion
Thank you for reading a post that was essentially useless, but I just felt compelled to write about this today. I am beyond excited for the return of Galar Dex AG after the DLCs drop. Hopefully, I've made someone else feel the same way. I'm personally just excited for Anything Goes again as this current meta is not it, period. If you read this whole post, thank you so much I appreciate you