SV CAP: Fragments vs Fc (45/55) - glad we get to see a rematch here. i liked both players team choices last week but sadly they didnt get the chance to play an actual game thanks to an early decisive crit. plot armor is a real thing and i think fc has it this tournament - he's had to play the final match to clutch his team's win like 3 or 4 weeks in a row atp, so finals tiebreak is really just another game for him. obviously its not all "plot armor", fc is an incredibly good player, but he just has a winning aura about him rn that i don't see from fragments. that said, i have a hard time believing this won't be close; frag's a fantastic player in his own right, has had an excellent season so far, and should be extra hungry to pay fc back after the unfortunate game last week. wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see him win.
SV CAP: Concept Everything vs pichus (35/65) - kinda expected to see autumn here given that she had some solid wins earlier this tour, and her loss last week wasn't really her fault as much as it was the poor team choice that she probably got passed. i think losing on the spot to roaring moon was avoidable but losing the match longterm was probably not. instead we see CE here though, who has not had any thrilling SV performances recently iirc, but i do think he's a decent chef and SV is a tier that definitely rewards creativity atm. still, this is gonna be an uphill battle for him - while pichus's game last week did not inspire confidence, she's had an undeniably great season on the whole, and imo the building direction of the nohfaces' SV slots has been a cut above the rest. they are mostly bringing solid and interesting teams with great meta reads and i just don't know how likely it is that she'll trip over whatever techs CE cooks up. not an unwinnable game for CE by any means, but it doesn't look like a close one either.
BW CAP: TGA vs tier (57/43) - not gonna pretend that i know anything about BW, but i've seen both of these guys play in a handful of CAP teamtours atp so i feel like i've got an okay read on their vibes in this format. i cba to look up their all-time sheet records but i'm pretty sure TGA is the most consistently winning BWer in CAP while tier is not far behind, which already makes for a very exciting matchup. mostly bolding TGA here bc every time i click on a tier replay i feel like its just the same one or two teams for the whole tour, and while reusing isn't always bad (in fact, it usually works out in tier's favor), i just see TGA as more of a grinder in this tier with the experience and results to back it up. might be talking out of my ass tho. i dont know shit about anything past ORAS.
shame this had to go to tiebreak bc i feel like skwovets were really favored when it was 8v8 but yeah i guess i just predicted binpin to walk away from this tour with a trophy, this tier is really fucking doomed isnt it