Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

[MikeDawg]

Any predictions for what Liz will do after this? Like I mentioned before, Biden was originally expected to do poorly in Iowa/NH, so his loss isn't too tragic for his chances. But Liz was heavily reliant on turning it out in those two states. Will it be the end of her campaign if she doesn't pull off some magic in NH?

Slightly unrelated, but lol:

 

[Chou Toshio]

Honestly, as frustrating as all of this is, I think this goes very well for Bernie going forward as long as the election is actually fair.

-We found out Biden really is a paper tiger who will look good in traditional polling but is nowhere near as strong as legitimate opponents like Warren & Buttegieg & even Kloubuchar with actually good fundamentals (ground game). The country will soon understand it too. It's a really good thing that Kamala didn't try sticking in longer-- seeing how well Amy did, she might have been an actually strong contender.
-Pete on the other hand, remains the weakest candidate nationally and in later states with more minorities. He's a much easier opponent than if Biden was as strong as his polling #s. He's also the most likely to have his base split by Bloomberg.
-Biden will use Iowa's mayhem to squeek through without having to simply plummet. But if his organization/base is as squishy and unenthusiasitic in the other states (and it is), then all it means is he will continue to sap the narrative/attention/voters that Buttegieg and Klobuchar need to be real legitimate.
-Ultimately what's most important is that the Bernie's base will come out of this as fired up and hungry as ever-- they got to take that into dominating New Hampshire.

While more candidates staying in is not good for Bernie to make a go at grabbing majority, and Biden does take away minority voters that would otherwise go to Bernie, in the short run this makes his path of coming out with the most delegates stronger. That's my guess.

 

[MikeDawg]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1224781034996273152

Dang, this is the first time that Biden has attacked Bernie. Looks like his campaign is taking the Iowa dip seriously. That said, with the 4th place Iowa finish on everyone's mind (rather than his national lead), he finally has a chance to hit Bernie without seeming like he's punching down, which could also play a role in the timing.

Bernie's finally getting the frontrunner treatment. Will he survive the hot seat like Joe, or will he Bern out like Kamala and Liz? Only time will tell, but I hope this means the next debate will be more exciting. He certainly hasn't made any allies, that's for sure.

Speaking of which, I wonder if Liz and Amy played their cards too soon irt Pete. He was hit with the bulk of attacks a couple debates ago, and he was able to bounce back from the resulting dip and substantially overperform his polling in Iowa. I don't think there's a market for "Wine Cave: Part 2". They've also addressed his inexperience already. What else is there?

He doesn't really have any black support to peel off by bringing up South Bend police drama, but I'm sure he's thoroughly prepared for Tootsie Garbanzo to try it. Plus, Warren is the only remaining candidate who can touch on race without opening a can of worms on their own records (then again, if she can make "wine caves" happen, I'm sure Pete can make "you were a Republican" happen).

Though it could be a really good play by Biden to bring up Bernie's praise of George Wallace. At the same time that Bernie made that quote, Biden was literally leading the fight to stop Wallace from getting elected. Regardless of whether you think Bernie's comments should be categorized as "praise", that's an incredibly poignant contrast to draw: all other variables equal, Bernie "supported" a major segregationist while Biden lead the fight against him. Biden's reminiscing about his time working with segregationists was already deliberated at the first debate, and he came out unscathed. In other words, it may not be a risky angle for Joe to take.

 

[mym217866]

Any predictions for what Liz will do after this? Like I mentioned before, Biden was originally expected to do poorly in Iowa/NH, so his loss isn't too tragic for his chances. But Liz was heavily reliant on turning it out in those two states. Will it be the end of her campaign if she doesn't pull off some magic in NH?

Slightly unrelated, but lol:

Don't really see the problem with the speech.

Hide

I love it. But I tell you this because a person’s values matter, a president’s values matter, and the only thing Donald Trump values is Donald Trump. He believes that government is just one more thing to exploit, a tool to enrich himself and his corrupt buddies at everyone else’s expense. I believe government should work for everyone. We don’t know all the results tonight, but tonight has already showed that Americans have a deep hunger for big structural change to make our economy and our democracy work for everyone. Tonight showed that our path to victory is to fight hard for the changes Americans are demanding, changes that Democrats, Independents, and Republicans are demanding. Tonight showed that our agenda isn’t just a progressive agenda. It isn’t just a democratic agenda. It’s an American agenda.

Throughout our history, when moments of prices have called on us to meet big challenges, Americans have answered the call. Even when the doubters and critics say that our dreams are too big and the fights are too hard, we persist. In the 19 … In the 1700s, when people said we can never overthrow a King and form a new Republic, farmers and merchants came together and fought side by side until we won our independence. In the 1800s, people said that slavery would endure forever and African Americans would never see liberation. But abolitionists, enslaved and formerly enslaved people formed an underground railroad and more than 2 million people waged a war to defeat the tyranny of slavery.

And in the 1900s, people said we could never rescue our economy from the depths of the Great Depression or defeat fascism, but we forged a new deal. We mobilized to defeat fascism. We expanded unions. We built a middle class and we marched for civil rights. Americans do big things. That’s who we are. We don’t settle. We don’t back down. We meet big problems with even bigger solution.

So I’m here tonight because I believe that big dreams are still possible in America. Tonight, you showed that when you imagine an America that lives up to its ideals, you can set in motion the process of making it a reality. All it takes is some hard work and better connections. And here in Iowa, that’s what happened. You came together, you organized, you showed that we are united in our conviction, that hope defeats fear, that courage overcomes cynicism. That we will always be a stronger party and a stronger nation. When we unite around our shared values to advance justice and expand opportunity to everyone. Right now, across America there are folks standing with groups of friends or sitting on the couch with loved ones, or maybe even watching this quietly on their phones, because everyone else in the house is asleep, watching and thinking, “Maybe I could help out.”



Maybe I could volunteer some time. Maybe I could get in the fight. And that is how we’re going to do this. I am here tonight to tell you if you have hope that America can be better than it has been in these last few years and if you have the courage to speak out and do a little organizing with us, then this campaign is for you. If you can imagine an America where corruption doesn’t block our ability to reduce gun violence, an America where we can urgently tackle climate change, an America where we can bring an end to the opioid epidemic, then this campaign is for you.

(etc etc)

Saying "no challenge is too big to overcome and you can dream big etc etc" not really "electing me is exactly the same as fighting slavery".

 

[GatoDelFuego]

Instead we're going to get "PETE RIGGED IT!!!" Even if Bernie does end up winning

This is his own fault for "accepting victory" during the middle of the fiasco. He could have come out as a shocking leader had he waited for the dust to settle, but the bernie bros were out for scapegoats already and he painted a target on his back.

People should stop being so surprised that iowa may not represent their liberal echo chamber tho lol when it's actually made up of very different people

 

[Bughouse]

The third woman’s face is so priceless and the precinct captain is so patient.

that clip is the ONLY good thing to come out of this caucus

 

[faint]

my big takeaways from Iowa

- Pete is now technically the front-runner and it'll be interesting to see how Fridays debate goes considering he's never been in this position before

- all momentum into NH was effectively lost due to the results and now candidates like Klob and Yang can hang in a little longer when for all intents and purposes, they should drop out sooner rather than later

- deval patrick is still running? Weird, but okay

 

[MikeDawg]

my big takeaways from Iowa

- Pete is now technically the front-runner and it'll be interesting to see how Fridays debate goes considering he's never been in this position before

- all momentum into NH was effectively lost due to the results and now candidates like Klob and Yang can hang in a little longer when for all intents and purposes, they should drop out sooner rather than later

- deval patrick is still running? Weird, but okay

I'd be hesitant to call Pete the frontrunner just yet considering his current position in national polls and his struggle to diversify his base, but I can definitely see him replacing Liz, at the very least. Also irt never being the frontrunner, there was that time when he was the clear leader in both Iowa and NH polls. Not necessarily as solid as an actual Iowa win, but the big fuck-up could balance that out.

That said, 538 noted a few days ago that Pete was the only candidate with the potential to (somewhat) replicate the Obama effect in the unlikely event he won Iowa. The most important parallels (iirc) were A) low star power compared to his competition, B) must substantially overperform his polling to take 1st.

He was the candidate who likely suffered most from the demoralizing, "I like him, but I don't think he can win the nom," effect, considering the huge names he's running against. The Iowa win absolutely puts him on the map (and presumably knocks most of the non-viables out), but he has quite a few hurdles to overcome first, especially the aforementioned diversity issue and his win getting overshadowed by tech problems (in the same vein, those tech problems may very well distract from Bernie's underperformance).

One thing that surprised me was his performance with first-time voters. According to entrance polls, he got ~24% of the first-time vote vs Bernie's ~30%. Super impressive considering Bernie's core strategy includes reaching non-voters, whereas Pete has generally stuck to the established Dem base.

 

[termi]

theres literally no good reason as to why
a: the results aren't already fully in
b: the dems started releasing incomplete results instead of waiting for the final results (the ones that actually matter)

unless, of course, they want as much exposure of mayo peter as "the winner" in the media as possible

can we please go back to biden being the establishment candidate tho like at least hes funny. peter is just depressing and the worst thing to happen to gay people since the cia invented aids

also apparently the current numbers are showing bernie ahead but somehow the big P has more delegates or sum shit cuz america cant even begin to look like a democracy. here's to all the ppl who r still salty about hillary losing despite the popular vote lol

 

[MikeDawg]

https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/02/0...eories-flourish-after-iowa-caucus-fiasco/amp/

You're just rattling off blatant right wing propaganda at this point. Face it: the dude spent $50mil in a caucus state and still lost to a mayor.

theres literally no good reason as to why
a: the results aren't already fully in
b: the dems started releasing incomplete results instead of waiting for the final results (the ones that actually matter)

Because they promised results by Tuesday, but they didn't have full results. Not putting out any numbers 24 hours later would be a travesty, even moreso than this already is.

unless, of course, they want as much exposure of mayo peter as "the winner" in the media as possible

Or maybe... Pete did win? Shocking theory, I know! Take it with a grain of salt, though, because all I have to support it is the results of the caucus with the vast majority of precincts reporting. Whereas your theory is backed up by the ultimate authority: sad feelings.

Maybe you're right, and he rigged the caucus so the results would be overshadowed by the technical delay. That's super conducive to his hail-mary plan of overperforming in Iowa to build desperately-needed momentum for the next few states. Suppressing his own victory coverage is absolutely genius. 4D chess.

can we please go back to biden being the establishment candidate tho like at least hes funny. peter is just depressing and the worst thing to happen to gay people since the cia invented aids

You people are legit brainwashed. This is getting insane.

also apparently the current numbers are showing bernie ahead but somehow the big P has more delegates or sum shit cuz america cant even begin to look like a democracy. here's to all the ppl who r still salty about hillary losing despite the popular vote lol

Pete leads in 60 counties. Bernie leads in 18.

Pete has 419 SDEs. Bernie has 394.

And they're still getting the same number of pledged delegates at the moment (10) despite Pete being the clear leader in all of the metrics that matter in a caucus. Such is the life of a populist whose support is mostly limited to college campus blow-outs. His appeal is so limited, that according to initial NYT results, he ended up with fewer SDEs after realignment. That takes talent.

Sanders should be a bit worried that other candidates will start dropping. Pete + Biden + Amy adds up to a way larger number in Iowa than Bernie + Liz, and fewer than half of Liz's supporters have Bernie as their second choice.

In other news, just made my first donation to Mayo Pete. Thanks for the motivation!

 

[Myzozoa]

So what would you call it, then? It looks to me like people are making assumptions based on unfounded information.

If conspiracy is too strong a word, would you accept conjecture? Either way, it's not based in facts. It's just theorized (oop).

i was tryna make a joke, but at 2am on wednesday and 71% reported, each report lowering petes margin, i can now reflect that I was as right as I always am about these matters and next year we'll see who still remembers the 48 hours where pete was beating bernie sanders in a primary

 

[Chou Toshio]

I’m glad Biden is attacking Bernie and hope others do too. It legitimizes his front runner status and— this guy sucks so hard at being mean.

The best we Sanderssupporters can hope for us someone else starting the mud slinging and having Bernie go IN. We need more people to bring more fights to him.

 

[termi]

https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/02/0...eories-flourish-after-iowa-caucus-fiasco/amp/

You're just rattling off blatant right wing propaganda at this point. Face it: the dude spent $50mil in a caucus state and still lost to a mayor.



Because they promised results by Tuesday, but they didn't have full results. Not putting out any numbers 24 hours later would be a travesty, even moreso than this already is.



Or maybe... Pete did win? Shocking theory, I know! Take it with a grain of salt, though, because all I have to support it is the results of the caucus with the vast majority of precincts reporting. Whereas your theory is backed up by the ultimate authority: sad feelings.

Maybe you're right, and he rigged the caucus so the results would be overshadowed by the technical delay. That's super conducive to his hail-mary plan of overperforming in Iowa to build desperately-needed momentum for the next few states. Suppressing his own victory coverage is absolutely genius. 4D chess.



You people are legit brainwashed. This is getting insane.



Pete leads in 60 counties. Bernie leads in 18.

Pete has 419 SDEs. Bernie has 394.

And they're still getting the same number of pledged delegates at the moment (10) despite Pete being the clear leader in all of the metrics that matter in a caucus. Such is the life of a populist whose support is mostly limited to college campus blow-outs. His appeal is so limited, that according to initial NYT results, he ended up with fewer SDEs after realignment. That takes talent.

Sanders should be a bit worried that other candidates will start dropping. Pete + Biden + Amy adds up to a way larger number in Iowa than Bernie + Liz, and fewer than half of Liz's supporters have Bernie as their second choice.

In other news, just made my first donation to Mayo Pete. Thanks for the motivation!

lmaoooo

E: btw did anyone see this shit how the fuck do ppl rly believe peter is anything but a reptilian cmon dude. who kisses their partner like this

 

[MikeDawg]

At least he'd win in a fight with a shower door.

Take a break from politics for a couple days. You look totally unhinged.

 

[BLINGAS]

i think if mikedawg were to play pokemon he'd be banned from tournaments seeing as he likes spooks so much

 

[termi]

At least he'd win in a fight with a shower door.

Take a break from politics for a couple days. You look totally unhinged.

im just having fun. btw r u making fun of an elderly man for being involved in an accident at home? thats kinda fucked up dude

 

[Stratos]

 

[Legendary Latios]

I've honestly been in laughing my butt off for the past 1.5 days. These caucuses have been so abysmally bad that there is nothing positive to take away for independents, and the conservatives (sorry, I'm one of those racist, homophobic, bigoted people who likes government small) are just loving it. The party that supports big government and, depending on the nominee (Bernie, I'm looking at you), nationalizing much of our economy, can't get the results of a 171k person turnout in a day and a half. I mean, is this at least somewhat amusing to you guys? We can have our disagreements on the size of the government and spending in good faith, but his debacle is just hilarious.

I'm sorry for that tangent, but come on, this is hilarious.

 

[EV]

E: btw did anyone see this shit how the fuck do ppl rly believe peter is anything but a reptilian cmon dude. who kisses their partner like this

Probably has something to do with him being the first gay candidate to go this far in a presidential campaign, and the optics of a man kissing another man on the mouth is still too gross for ~50% of Americans.

Also, your "worst thing to happen to gays since the cia invented aids" line wasn't cute. But given that we don't moderate cong anymore, I suppose there's nothing to do about it.

 

[atomicllamas]

the conservatives (sorry, I'm one of those racist, homophobic, bigoted people who likes government small) are just loving it.

r/selfawarewolves

 

[Divine Retribution]

Conservatives: lmao snowflake libtards with their victim complexes, nobody is oppressing you we just dont agree with you

Also conservatives:

the conservatives (sorry, I'm one of those racist, homophobic, bigoted people who likes government small)

 

[Machoke]

Pete leads in 60 counties. Bernie leads in 18.

Pete has 419 SDEs. Bernie has 394.

And they're still getting the same number of pledged delegates at the moment (10) despite Pete being the clear leader in all of the metrics that matter in a caucus. Such is the life of a populist whose support is mostly limited to college campus blow-outs. His appeal is so limited, that according to initial NYT results, he ended up with fewer SDEs after realignment. That takes talent.

Sanders should be a bit worried that other candidates will start dropping. Pete + Biden + Amy adds up to a way larger number in Iowa than Bernie + Liz, and fewer than half of Liz's supporters have Bernie as their second choice.

In other news, just made my first donation to Mayo Pete. Thanks for the motivation!

we really out here ignoring the popular vote huh lmao

 

[Legendary Latios]

Conservatives: lmao snowflake libtards with their victim complexes, nobody is oppressing you we just dont agree with you

Also conservatives:

I'm not sure if you understand what a joke is...

I said that to make fun of the idea that everyone who disagrees with left on victimhood and oppression are considered to be racists because we judge people on merit not their skin color, homophobic for reasons unknown other than Westboro Baptist Church (fun fact, Obama didn't support LGBQ rights until reelection, verses Trump being in favor of them the entire time he's been in office). We are called Nazi's because a small number of extremely right people have abhorrent views on race and white nationalism that the vast majority disagree with, and misogynistic because we think that men and women are have different biology and a capacity to create new life (!) and nurture it better than better than the majority of men.

With that out of the way, I don't really care much to go deeper into this argument, because it will turn into identity politics and name calling, which is a perpetual cycle of nothing getting done and more inflammatory language.

 

[Divine Retribution]

I'm not sure if you understand what a joke is...

Oh, the irony.

 

[termi]

Probably has something to do with him being the first gay candidate to go this far in a presidential campaign, and the optics of a man kissing another man on the mouth is still too gross for ~50% of Americans.

yea fair enough altho the majority of those ppl r republicans so it matters only so much. ngl i find it kind of disturbing that a kiss would be the subject of political calculation, but ofc inauthenticity is the name of the game in american politics

in other pete news: it's super cool that he answers a sincere question concerning the israel-palestine conflict by demonstrating how smart he is instead of, you know, answering the question. why expand on your policies and actually trying to say something meaningful politically when u can use the opportunity to cultivate your image instead amirite