Few thoughts:
About me - late 20s black male.
My heart and vote will go to Elizabeth Warren, but I sincerely hope and think she doesn’t win the nomination. Why? She’s amazing on policy but has terrible political instincts. She will lose to Trump. But her ideas will find their way into the 2020 Dem platform.
The winning ticket is Biden / Harris. If we want to beat Trump it’s a slam dunk.
Bernie will never win a Dem primary. Bernie supporters need to get past that idea.
The only serious candidates are Biden, Beto, Mayor Pete, Kamala Harris, and unnamed establishment white male Democrat in the event Biden doesn’t run (think Terry McAuliffe).
EDIT: Terry McAuliffe officially announced he's not running. IMO, that puts Biden's odds at 95% he's in.
EDIT 2 - Prediction:
Bernie retains his 25% base in the primary, while the 4 other serious contenders mention remain relevant through the first few states. Harris has underwhelming support in early states with the exception of California, which causes her support among black voters in the South to tip towards Biden. Mayor Pete has a surprisingly strong showing through the primary. Beto, despite fundraising never catches enough fire and drops out early. That leaves Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Mayor Pete. Harris sees no path to victory, cuts a deal with Biden for an endorsement and promise of VP slot and drops out. Biden runs the table with 40%, eventually climbing towards a solid majority. Bernie refuses to concede without more concessions in the party platform and primary process.
About me - late 20s black male.
My heart and vote will go to Elizabeth Warren, but I sincerely hope and think she doesn’t win the nomination. Why? She’s amazing on policy but has terrible political instincts. She will lose to Trump. But her ideas will find their way into the 2020 Dem platform.
The winning ticket is Biden / Harris. If we want to beat Trump it’s a slam dunk.
Bernie will never win a Dem primary. Bernie supporters need to get past that idea.
The only serious candidates are Biden, Beto, Mayor Pete, Kamala Harris, and unnamed establishment white male Democrat in the event Biden doesn’t run (think Terry McAuliffe).
EDIT: Terry McAuliffe officially announced he's not running. IMO, that puts Biden's odds at 95% he's in.
EDIT 2 - Prediction:
Bernie retains his 25% base in the primary, while the 4 other serious contenders mention remain relevant through the first few states. Harris has underwhelming support in early states with the exception of California, which causes her support among black voters in the South to tip towards Biden. Mayor Pete has a surprisingly strong showing through the primary. Beto, despite fundraising never catches enough fire and drops out early. That leaves Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Mayor Pete. Harris sees no path to victory, cuts a deal with Biden for an endorsement and promise of VP slot and drops out. Biden runs the table with 40%, eventually climbing towards a solid majority. Bernie refuses to concede without more concessions in the party platform and primary process.
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