Project VGC 2019 Ultra Series - POTW Analysis: Umbreon

VGC 2019 Ultra Series POTW: A Late Week 5

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Welcome back once again to my Pokémon of the Week (POTW) article series! This is coming a week late, as previously stated in my announcement last week. Therefore, I'm making it up to you all by making a second article this week in order to catch up, since I have a 4-day weekend so I have a little extra time. In addition, I'm going to start using this adorable and really awesome banner by JustoonSmitts which includes my favorite Pokémon ever, Mudkip! You guys can expect to see this for all my VGC 2019 POTW articles so I hope you all like it (ultimate goal is for everyone to immediately think of me whenever they think of Mudkip teehee)! Anyway! I hope you're all ready for this article because this week we have...

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Umbreon! A favorite Eeveelution of many Pokémon fans, this one has had many anime appearances and it has one of my favorite shiny palettes as well. I don't have many emotional ties to this Pokémon but I sure had fun watching it do well at Worlds! Piloted by Hirofumi Kimura from Japan, a team using Umbreon managed to claim 2nd in the Masters' division! This came as a massive surprise to a lot of people, given how omnipresent Incineroar has been this format, but it did super well on his Dusk-Mane Necrozma + Groudon team as a super hard stop to things like Lunala (the Twitch chat also spammed a lot of PogChamps and "UMBREON" when it was sent out). The Worlds finals finish is what caused this Pokémon to be suggested for the Week 4 poll in the Pokémon Showdown! VGC chatroom by AldrichYan, and it came out on top! It's spooky month and it seems appropriate to finally start explaining how this spooky Eeveelution works!
Overview

Type: Dark

Base Stats
HP: 95

Attack: 65
Defense: 110
Sp. Attack: 60
Sp. Defense: 130
Speed: 65

In my opinion, Umbreon has the best all-around bulk of any Eeveelution, and it uses this to help it tank many neutral and resisted attacks and heal back with Moonlight. However, as I've said in my Clefairy article, Fairy-type Pokémon are everywhere. Unlike Clefairy though, Umbreon has the defenses and movepool to not get utterly walloped by common Fairy Pokémon and Fairy answers. There are only 3 big Fairy attacks that Umbreon can't reliably live at least once, which you will find later in the article along with a massive list of calcs that it CAN survive. The Speed is such that you can make Umbreon always underspeed Incineroar in order to hit things that would only come in after a U-Turn, which is great because it also has the bulk to stave off LOTS of U-Turns from the common Incineroar spreads.

Abilities:

Synchronize: there are only a couple uses for this. One is to Toxic Shedinja when it uses Toxic on you. To the player who hates Shedinja enough, this is all you'll ever want out of an ability. The other is to give sleep to common users of sleep-inducing moves such as Amoonguss and Smeargle. However, there is another ability it can use that's more relevant and much less situational than Synchronize.
Inner Focus: Bingo. Stop flinching. Don't care about Fake Out from Incineroar, Togedemaru, and Kangaskhan. Yeahhh (My point is that this is an ability you'll likely use much more than Synchronize).


Notable Moves:

- Physical:

Foul Play - given how powerful many of the Pokémon in VGC 2019 are, Foul Play does a pretty sizable amount to just about everything without the need for Umbreon to have a high Attack stat. Even Primal Kyogre, a special attacker, has a base Attack stat of 150. With 0 Atk IVs and -Atk nature, Foul Play still does over 40% to it. It's the only attack you need to do actual damage. This is the first attack on Kimura's Umbreon at Worlds.

- Special:
Normally I like to put joke moves of some sort in the categories of attack that really shouldn't be utilized (with disclaimers to not use them of course, I'm not THAT evil), but I sincerely don't have anything for it that Foul Play doesn't do better. So don't try it, Umbreon neither has the Special Attack nor the movepool to get any headway trying to do real damage as a special attacker. So don't try it.

- Status/Support:
Helping Hand - The second move on Kimura's set! Umbreon is incredibly tanky, but has trouble dealing damage a lot of the time. To fix this, Umbreon just boosts the power of its partners! Many of you might not know it, but Helping Hand is one of my favorite moves in this format as it has a tendency to circumvent defensive calcs your opponents might use to live key attacks. It can cause a lot of mayhem, and a great tipping point in your favor you'll find in battles is when the mayhem starts on your opponent's side. When their game plan is about living certain attacks, Umbreon's Helping Hand can mess them up.
Moonlight - Boom. The key to Umbreon's bulk and the third move on Kimura's Umbreon. It works well with Groudon to heal back 75% health, but one has to be careful since it only heals 25% under Kyogre's Rain. This shortcoming is mitigated to an extent since Kyogre is often paired with Mega Rayquaza, and Umbreon can heal back 50% under Air Lock and Delta Stream. You also need to be wary of its maximum of 8 PP, as that's not enough for incredibly prolonged battles.
Snarl - The final move on Kimura's Umbreon. Is it a special attack? Yes. Is it meant to do real damage? No, hence why it's not in the Special section of the notable moves. It's meant to further hinder special attackers that already hate the fact Umbreon has really good Special bulk and Moonlight. It can also stop Ally Switch shenanigans from un-Soaked Shedinja as it hits both slots.

Protect - Umbreon also gets Detect should you choose that attack instead. Compared to the previous four attacks listed, it's not that stellar, but still does have its use against dangerous Fairy-type attackers.
Charm - Fellas do you like walling special attackers? How about physical ones? In all seriousness, Umbreon doesn't need it as Foul Play punishes physical attackers much more directly (aka dealing damage), and Charm removes a lot of Foul Play's usability by cutting into opponents' Attack stats.

How Should it be Used?
This is a tough question. It has a weird distinction of being a wall in this format that's weak to one of the most common attacking types in Fairy. Therefore, to make it worth your while, I think it's worth taking a note out of the notebook of the Worlds runner-up this year and pair it with Dusk Mane Necrozma, since it appreciates Umbreon's special bulk, typing, and Snarl. A big distinction between Umbreon and its main Dark-type competition, Incineroar, is that Incin needs to be on the field a LOT. It's prone to getting worn down easily given how easy it is to just throw on the field and re-establish board positioning, whereas Umbreon heals back and doesn't come in quite as easy as Incin, so it generally will have more bulk on it. It can make its home on offensive teams in need of a stronger defensive backbone than Incineroar. I wouldn't try to swap it in on a strong attack it doesn't resist, as its bulk becomes less serviceable after repeated hits, so try getting it in for free to make sure it can support to its best potential.

Kimura's full team in order (according to the official Pokémon website) was Dusk-Mane Necrozma (into Ultra Necrozma), Choice Scarf Tapu Lele, Mega Kangaskhan, Mega Salamence, Primal Groudon, and Umbreon. As you can probably tell, his team was incredibly offense-oritented so having Umbreon as a wall and support fit his team as a final touch. Keep in mind that it's the last Pokémon on his team of 6, so I'd surmise that it was added last to his team, as is the case for many niche Pokémon in this format. Therefore, don't start a new team with Umbreon. Instead, let it only be added if your team needs it, as that's how do you what's truly right for your team. Don't force it onto your teambuilder as that's how you lose your game-to-game consistency.

Sample Sets

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Now that I've gotten a chance to talk about Umbreon a bit, I have one sample set for it. While I think Umbreon is much better than Clefairy this year, I'm giving both the same number of spreads. I wanted to include an additional spread that featured much more special bulk than what I gave it on this set. However, the extra bulk wasn't helping Umbreon tank much more than it already did. The few specially defensive benchmarks Umbreon was hitting with the extra investment were against Fairy-types, which it already doesn't like facing. Finally, the extra SpDef investment started cutting into its physical benchmarks, and I didn't want to start hindering Umbreon in its good matchups to get an extra Snarl off on its bad ones (especially since Dusk Mane Necro usually handles Umbreon's bad matchups anyway). That said, Umbreon does do pretty darn well with this set
Moves:
- Foul Play
- Snarl
- Moonlight
- Helping Hand
Ability: Inner Focus
Item: Sitrus Berry
Nature: Calm (-Atk, +SpD) or Sassy (-Spe, +SpD)
EVs: 252 HP, 188 Def, 68 SpD
IVs: 0 Atk

Okay I know this spread says "Balanced Bulk" in the title, but this set was mostly calc'd for physical attacks, so physical defense was the priority when I was making this. It ends up becoming a "Balanced Bulk" spread because Umbreon just has naturally great Special Defense, so with the 68 EVs dumped into its SpD, the set just becomes more balanced. The reason I prioritized physical bulk on this set is because Umbreon has Snarl and Moonlight, so it's honestly fine against special attackers much of the time. Without Intimidate like its rival, Incineroar, it needs to patch up its Defense to make its Sitrus Berry worthwhile. Here are some important physically defensive calcs to keep in mind:

252 Atk Mega Rayquaza Dragon Ascent vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon: 102-121 (50.4 - 59.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Fire Punch vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon in Harsh Sun: 106-126 (52.4 - 62.3%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ Atk Primal Groudon Precipice Blades vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon: 84-100 (41.5 - 49.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
180+ Atk Incineroar U-turn vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon: 60-72 (29.7 - 35.6%) -- 95.1% chance to 4HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
4 Atk Incineroar U-turn vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon: 48-58 (23.7 - 28.7%) -- possible 5HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252 Atk Life Orb Solgaleo Superpower vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon: 146-172 (72.2 - 85.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252 Atk Life Orb Solgaleo Superpower vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon: 99-117 (49 - 57.9%) -- 9.4% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ Atk Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 188 Def Umbreon: 84-100 (41.5 - 49.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery

With this set, Umbreon has a pretty good matchup against a beefy list of common restricted Pokémon like Primal Groudon, Mega Rayquaza, Solgaleo, Dusk-Mane, Dawn-Wings, and Ultra Necrozma, Lunala, and Yveltal. Like I said, Fairies will be a problem for Umbreon to stay in against for long periods of time, so Dusk-Mane Necrozma (Ultra Burst optional) works very well as a partner. It benefits from Umbreon's ability to handle the aforementioned restricted Pokémon immensely. Kimura's Umbreon ran a Relaxed nature to work better under Trick Room (which his Necrozma was tasked with setting up). However, if one wished to use Dusk-Mane Necrozma without Trick Room, a Bold nature could be used instead. Alternatively, you could still use Relaxed anyway to minimize the Gyro Ball damage dealt by Stakataka and Bronzong and to always underspeed Incineroar so that when it U-Turns out, your Snarl/Foul Play will always land on its switch-in (very doable since U-Turn 4HKOs this set at best). It also appreciates being with either Primal Groudon or Rayquaza to stop Kyogre's rain, which halves Umbreon's Moonlight recovery. However, don't use Ultra Burst Dusk-Mane Necro and Mega Rayquaza on the same team. With Umbreon as the defensive backbone, the triple Fairy weakness becomes too much. Speaking of Fairies, and special attacks in general, here's how this Umbreon set takes their attacks. (WARNING: IT'S A MASSIVE WALL OF FAIRY TYPE CALCS)

4 SpA Tapu Fini Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 74-90 (36.6 - 44.5%) -- 17.8% chance to 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 4 SpA Tapu Fini Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 50-60 (24.7 - 29.7%) -- possible 5HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
4 SpA Tapu Fini Twinkle Tackle (175 BP) vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 134-158 (66.3 - 78.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 4 SpA Tapu Fini Twinkle Tackle (175 BP) vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 90-108 (44.5 - 53.4%) -- 4.7% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252 SpA Tapu Koko Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 56-68 (27.7 - 33.6%) -- 32.8% chance to 4HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252 SpA Tapu Koko Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 38-48 (18.8 - 23.7%) -- possible 6HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252 SpA Tapu Koko Twinkle Tackle (160 BP) vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 152-182 (75.2 - 90%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252 SpA Tapu Koko Twinkle Tackle (160 BP) vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 102-122 (50.4 - 60.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ SpA Tapu Lele Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 126-150 (62.3 - 74.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252+ SpA Tapu Lele Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 84-102 (41.5 - 50.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ SpA Tapu Lele Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 78-92 (38.6 - 45.5%) -- 55.2% chance to 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252+ SpA Tapu Lele Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 54-66 (26.7 - 32.6%) -- 1.2% chance to 4HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252 SpA Fairy Aura Xerneas Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 152-180 (75.2 - 89.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252 SpA Fairy Aura Xerneas Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 102-122 (50.4 - 60.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252 SpA Fairy Aura Xerneas Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 96-114 (47.5 - 56.4%) -- 14.1% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252 SpA Fairy Aura Xerneas Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 62-74 (30.6 - 36.6%) -- 99.9% chance to 4HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
+1 252 SpA Fairy Aura Xerneas Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon: 140-168 (69.3 - 83.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ SpA Primal Kyogre Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon in Heavy Rain: 141-166 (69.8 - 82.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ SpA Primal Kyogre Origin Pulse vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon in Heavy Rain: 103-123 (50.9 - 60.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252+ SpA Primal Kyogre Origin Pulse vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon in Heavy Rain: 69-82 (34.1 - 40.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ SpA Primal Groudon Eruption (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon in Harsh Sun: 121-144 (59.9 - 71.2%) -- 90.2% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
252+ SpA Primal Groudon Overheat vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon in Harsh Sun: 141-166 (69.8 - 82.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery
-1 252+ SpA Primal Groudon Overheat vs. 252 HP / 68+ SpD Umbreon in Harsh Sun: 94-112 (46.5 - 55.4%) -- 18% chance to 2HKO after Sitrus Berry recovery

Okay so any relevant Fairy-type attack calc that you don't see in the spoiler tab above is not a Fairy-type attack that this Umbreon set lives a large percentage of the time. Both +2 Moonblast (after a Geomancy) and +1 Moonblast (after a Geomancy and a Snarl) from Xerneas will all OHKO this Umbreon. +2 Dazzling Gleam from it has a 62.5% chance to OHKO, and while it has the chance to not KO, you can't reliably expect Umbreon to live it. The main reason I put this here is to ensure you that Umbreon can sponge at least one Fairy-type attack a lot of the time, which gives Dusk-Mane Necrozma or Solgaleo the chance to fire back with Sunsteel Strike or Searing Sunraze Smash. Obviously, don't switch it in on Fairy attacks if you can help it, as otherwise it becomes immediately less effective since it doesn't get to take another so easily. I personally think on a team with Umbreon, the second restricted Pokémon should also be a Fairy resist. This makes positioning against Fairy-types much easier and saves Umbreon for when it's needed to tank stuff.

Bad Matchups
You may or may not have picked up on this already, but Fairies are Umbreon's toughest time. While it can Snarl away, it can't do so before taking a big Fairy attack or allowing Xerneas to Geomancy if Trick Room isn't up. Dusk-Mane Necrozma might be Umbreon's best friend, but the pair does struggle against pairs outside of Trick Room such as Groudon/FIni, Groudon/Lele, Lele/Lunala, and others that threaten both slots with their offensive synergy. On the more offensive teams that Umbreon tends to find itself on, being forced in a position like this makes you need to play on the back foot. This makes battles incredibly tough to claw back into because these aforementioned offensive teams hate being forced to play defense, and risk taking a lot of damage to do so. In this regard, having U-Turn or Fake Out would be great to reposition, which why many teams prefer Incineroar over Umbreon. Like I said however, Umbreon does have its niche and its 2nd place finish at Worlds for using it to the fullest cannot be denied.

Conclusion
I have one regret with this article and that's not finding out what Hirofumi Kimura's Worlds Umbreon's spread was. The official Pokémon website states that his Umbreon was Relaxed, so I definitely know our sets do not match. I just don't know what he was hoping to survive by opting for a +Defense nature instead of my +SpDef nature spread. If anyone knows his spread and is willing to share, please tell and explain it to me below! Also, if you have any sample teams you'd like to share featuring Umbreon, please let me know below! Tell me what you think of my analysis and give your take on Umbreon as well! Please like and share this article if you liked it, it would help me out a lot! :)

If you want to catch up with my September articles, you can find them below! (I should make an archive for these...)
Week 1: Greninja - https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/vgc-2019-ultra-series-potw-discussion-greninja.3654270/
Week 2: Kyurem-W - https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/vgc-2019-ultra-series-potw-discussion-kyurem-white.3654513/
Week 3: Pachirisu - https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/vgc-2019-ultra-series-potw-discussion-pachirisu.3654757/
Week 4: Clefairy - https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/vgc-2019-ultra-series-potw-discussion-clefairy.3654937/


Like I said at the beginning of this article, I will be writing another this weekend, so please stay tuned! The poll for Week 7's article will be there as well, so I hope to see you there!
 

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