Trying to learn more about competitive before the next VGC. How is my team?

I've been playing Pokemon since I was a kid, and always knew a bit about competitive, but with the upcoming vgc, I've decided to start learning about the format. I've been playing VGC 2018 on Showdown, and was having fun, but now that legendaries are involved, I've been trying to figure out how to work with the new ruleset. I was shocked to learn some Pokemon I thought would be a no-brainer weren't actually considered that great for the current meta, so I figured I'd post my current build here to get advice.

My current team:

Incineroar (M) @ Assault Vest
Ability: Intimidate
Level: 50
EVs: 234 HP / 140 Atk / 60 SpD / 76 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Fake Out
- Flare Blitz
- Darkest Lariat
- Low Kick

Kyogre @ Figy Berry
Ability: Drizzle
Level: 50
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Calm Mind
- Surf
- Ice Beam
- Thunder

Zapdos @ Grassy Seed
Ability: Pressure
Level: 50
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 60 HP / 108 Def / 148 SpA / 4 SpD / 188 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Tailwind
- Thunder
- Hidden Power [Ice]
- Roost

Aegislash (F) @ Leftovers
Ability: Stance Change
Level: 50
EVs: 252 HP / 4 SpA / 252 SpD
Calm Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Toxic
- Shadow Ball
- King's Shield
- Substitute

Tapu Bulu @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Grassy Surge
Level: 50
EVs: 108 HP / 252 Atk / 148 Def
Adamant Nature
- Stone Edge
- Horn Leech
- Superpower
- Wood Hammer

Xerneas @ Power Herb
Ability: Fairy Aura
Level: 50
EVs: 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Geomancy
- Dazzling Gleam
- Grass Knot
- Protect

My main core is meant to be Incineroar + Tapu Bulu + a water type. I went with Kyogre to support Zapdos a bit, though I know they both end up having Thunder. I heard Xerneas is a good option to go with Incineroar, though is doubling up on Fairy ok? Aegislash is meant to just tank and screw over bulky guys with toxic.

Any advice would be appreciated. I really do want to stick with Incineroar and Tapu Bulu, since I've been waiting to use them together since intimidate got released, but I'm pretty open to other suggestions too.
 
Firstly, out of curiosity what were some of the mons that you thought would be good in the format that aren't? Because the format is still very young and pokemon that people didn't expect to perform well are having good success.

I would say the team is quite solid overall, but I am a little worried about your lack of Ferrothorn checks. Given that both Xerneas and Kyogre hate Ferrothorn, having only Incineroar as your only solid check to it is worrying, particularly as practically every team (31 out of the top 32 in the recent regionals) is using Incineroar, people will have their answers to it.

Your EV spreads without explanations seem random, the same with the movesets. Grass Knot Xern in grassy terrain could be solid, but I'm not sure it's worth giving up your single target STAB Moonblast for it. I'm not sure how valuable HP Ice on Zapdos is right now. There aren't a tonne of targets for it in the current meta. Also given that you haven't explained your reasoning for grassy seed, I'll just assume it was put there pretty randomly rather than to live a particularly important attack with your EVs. Instead, you could try safety goggles. With how common Groudon + Venusaur was in the recent regionals, it would be nice to have a safer tailwind in the face of venu (though you probably die to Sludge Bomb + Fire Punch), as well as avoiding redirection from Amoonguss so you can nail Kyogre with a Tbolt. If your running so much speed already on Zapdos, you might as well hit 148 speed to outspeed max modest Lele (I believe the winner of the regionals used this spread on their sash Lele) rather than just speed creeping things that outspeed neutral base 90s.

Aegislash looks kind of weird. Running a steel without a move to hit Xern is just strange. I believe the few Aegislash that were used in VGC16 ran Gyro Ball to hit Xern (if I remember right Jamie Boyt used one on his regional winning Cottonee team). Sub Toxic Aegislash just doesn't feel like the call with Groudon and Yveltal, as well as Fini and of course Incineroar being common atm.

Finally, Surf Protectless Kyogre is bad, and if you're going to use a pinch berry you probably want a bulkier spread. Oh and Knock Off>Darkest Lariat on Incineroar. Low Kick is also a bit weird, but being able to hit Stakataka which is being used a little bit isn't terrible. Snarl or U-turn are alternatives, or Roar if you trade AV for a berry.
 
Yeah, I probably spoke too soon on that part. I just noticed the VGC viability thread, and was surprised to see Salamance and Rayquaza lower than I thought they'd be. Like I said, I've only recently gotten into competitive battling, so seeing the top threats from the earlier gens be lower than they used to be surprised me.

As for the EV spreads, I was mostly looking at other builds from smogon. EVs still kind of confuse me, so a lot of the time I just read up what other people go for. For Kyogre in particular, I couldn't find anything recent without the blue orb, so I went back to older builds to try and get an idea of what to go with, which in retrospect, I probably shouldn't have done. Zapdos was holding a misty seed for my 2018 team, to be used with Fini, but since I went with Kyogre for coverage, I decided to go with Grassy seed to try and make him a bit tankier. I'll give safety goggles a shot. Aegislash I admit I wasn't thinking much with, I''ll retool them with your suggestions, along with Kyogre. I went with grass knot because I thought hitting two opponents would be better, since dazzling gleam has pretty good damage, but I'll change that to moonblast.

Would it be a better idea to go with something else over Xerneas? I saw a lot of people mention they'd go well with Incineroar, but looking at the shared weaknesses with Kyogre and Bulu, maybe I should go with something else?
 
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Ahh ok that makes a lot of sense. So first off VGC19 is a bit of a weird format, as it's split up in to the sun series, moon series and ultra series. Currently in tournaments people are playing the sun series, which has a different ruleset to the other series. In this format, megas, primals and Z-crystals aren't allowed. That's why Salamence and Rayquaza aren't so common, as mence misses out on Aerialate while Rayquaza is kind of objectively worse than the other restricted legends (it can't use Dragon Ascent, it's best flying physical STAB is Aerial Ace lol). In ultra series, I'd definitely expect to see more Mence and Ray.

Before I go in to spreads, I'll just comment on some of the other things you mention. Xerneas pretty much always runs the exact same set. Geomancy/Dazzling Gleam/Moonblast/Protect with a power herb. I think some people experimented with scarf and specs in VGC16 but it was trash. There isn't any real need for coverage on it, pretty much everything you would ever click Grass Knot on would die to a +2 Moonblast (remember it has STAB and Fairy Aura). Wolfe's (VGC16 champ if you weren't aware) Xerneas on his pretty weird (and awesome) Philly Regionals team had sub over Dazzling Gleam to capitalise on obvious protects and to avoid status, but that's pretty much the only exception I'm aware of. As for replacing Xerneas, you could experiment with using a different restricted if you want. I wouldn't be totally against the idea since Toxicroak (which is seeing some play now) is pretty threatening right now to your team. You definitely want to use 2 restricted mons though, they're restricted for a reason. As for Incineroar, it's the most used mon for a reason. It fits on any team. Intimidate, Fake Out, great typing, STAB Knock Off in a meta where all items can be knocked off, strong reliable fire STAB, support options like U-turn, Roar and Snarl, it's just so good. 31 out of the top 32 people in the philly regionals were using it for a reason. By shared weaknesses with Bulu and Kyogre, I'm not sure what you're talking about? If you're talking about between Kyogre and Bulu, they don't have any shared weaknesses. If you're talking about Incineroar with Kyogre + Bulu, Kyogre and Incineroar don't have any shared weaknesses. And if you're talking about Xerneas and Kyogre + Bulu, Xerneas and Kyogre have no shared weaknesses. Xerneas and Bulu obviously have shared weaknesses in poison and steel due to their fairy typing. I think the main reason Bulu doesn't get much play right now is Incineroar to be honest, every other tapu struggles a lot less with it as they aren't weak to it and aren't physical, as well as not being able to outspeed even modest scarf base 90s like Ogre and Groudon, or naturally non scarf Ogre and Groudon when Bulu isn't scarf. And for Aegislash, it's just the lack of staying power it has. Toxic stall isn't necessarily a bad idea, just not for an Aegislash. Kyle Livinghouse had a really cool Toxic stall electric seed Ho-Oh + Xerneas team that he got top 8 with. The reason it worked is its crazy bulk, recovery and ability to still function outside of Toxic spreading with Tailwind and beating steels with Sacred Fire for Xerneas to clean up. Aegislash could probably do with a set like Gyro Ball/King's Shield/Shadow Ball/Wide Guard. I think Jamie Boyt used Power Anklet on his to make sure he undersped Bronzong so he could 2HKO even if trick room is set up (which was more relevant in VGC16, but it's still seeing play in VGC19) and to power up Gyro Ball so that even with minimal attack EVs he KO'd most Xerneas with Gyro Ball BEFORE it Geomancies. Very different metagame but still worth bringing up if you want some ideas for Aegislash.

So spreads for VGC and smogon singles formats are very different. In VGC, the metagame for the most part is something you can predict, like you know for a fact someone right now is likely to have one of Groudon, Kyogre and/or Xerneas, and is very likey to have Incineroar. Just from that alone, you know a large proportion of the Pokemon that you are likely to see every game, meaning it's much easier to hit particular damage thresholds (either defensively or offensively), as well as speed tiers. So let's say your Tapu Bulu spread for example, a relevant speed tier that you would probably want to outspeed is speedcreeping Tapu Koko which are trying to outspeed base 110s. So jolly base 110s hit a speed stat of 178, Koko would hit 179 to outspeed them, so if you hit a speed stat of 120, with a scarf that brings you up to 180. You can hit that with 196 speed EVs, still keeping an Adamant nature. I would say that's as slow as you would want to go, as you're outspeeding a lot of quite relevant stuff here, Kartana, non max speed Koko (which most of them are I believe), Gengar and Jumpluff outside of sun. I'd say if you want to go much slower than this, you should probably just use a different item. Know that you know how much speed you need, you know how many EVs you have left over. Then you run some calcs on relevant mons to see where you're happy placing your EVs. Here are some that I would run (in each I'm finding the minimum EVs required to hit that benchmark so that I can decide which are more important):

Offensive:

Groudon:
36+ Atk Tapu Bulu Wood Hammer vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Groudon in Grassy Terrain: 216-254 (104.3 - 122.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
204+ Atk Tapu Bulu Wood Hammer vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Groudon in Grassy Terrain: 206-246 (99.5 - 118.8%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO (If you want to be confident to OHKO all Groudon in Grassy Terrain)
36+ Atk Tapu Bulu Horn Leech vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Groudon in Grassy Terrain: 138-164 (66.6 - 79.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Grassy Terrain recovery
(138, 140, 140, 144, 144, 146, 150, 150, 152, 152, 156, 156, 158, 158, 162, 164) (This calc isn't very relevant, it's just saying if you were to use the minimum EVs to OHKO max health Groudon with Wood Hammer, if you were instead to lock yourself in to Horn Leech and they were at full, 10/16 times you would not proc their pinch berry if they have one. I don't think they would have a pinch berry if they weren't at least max HP, so your odds only improve if they have more defense EVs. If you add more attack EVs however your odds get worse. Could be relevant at some point idk)

Kyogre:
84+ Atk Tapu Bulu Horn Leech vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Kyogre in Grassy Terrain: 206-246 (99.5 - 118.8%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO
28+ Atk Tapu Bulu Wood Hammer vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Kyogre: 210-248 (101.4 - 119.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO (As long as you have some EVs you always KO ogre outside of grassy terrain with wood hammer)


Defensive:

For the defensive benchmarks I've included the minimum EVs that would need to be placed in both Def/Sp.Def (the first calc) and HP (the second). It's generally better to invest in HP for the most part, but as it takes fewer EVs to hit a benchmark if you place them in Def/Sp.Def, it might be necessary to invest in these depending on how many EVs you have remaining.

Groudon:
252+ Atk Groudon Fire Punch vs. 0 HP / 140 Def Tapu Bulu in Sun: 124-146 (85.5 - 100.6%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Groudon Fire Punch vs. 172 HP / 0 Def Tapu Bulu in Sun: 142-168 (85 - 100.5%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO

Kyogre:
252+ SpA Kyogre Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 60 SpD Tapu Bulu: 124-146 (85.5 - 100.6%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
252+ SpA Kyogre Ice Beam vs. 76 HP / 0 SpD Tapu Bulu: 132-156 (85.1 - 100.6%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
252+ SpA Kyogre Helping Hand Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 0 HP / 100 SpD Tapu Bulu in Rain: 123-146 (84.8 - 100.6%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
252+ SpA Kyogre Helping Hand Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 124 HP / 0 SpD Tapu Bulu in Rain: 138-162 (85.7 - 100.6%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO

Xerneas:
+2 252 SpA Fairy Aura Xerneas Dazzling Gleam vs. 0 HP / 140 SpD Tapu Bulu: 123-145 (84.8 - 100%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
+2 252 SpA Fairy Aura Xerneas Dazzling Gleam vs. 164 HP / 0 SpD Tapu Bulu: 142-168 (85.5 - 101.2%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO


So that's just the process for those 3 legendaries. You'd want to run some calcs for other dominant mons in the format, like Ho-Oh, Yveltal, Solgaleo, Necrozma-DM, Lunala, Palkia, Dialga and non-legendaries like Incineroar, the tapus, Ferrothorn, Kartana, Ludicolo, Stakataka, Venusaur etc. Then do calcs with and without intimidate. Then make a judgement over which defensive and offensive benchmarks are most important and place your EVs in that way. It's really not a simple process and the benchmarks that are most important will be different between teams. For example a team that's pretty weak to scarf Kyogre might really value Bulu being able to tank a Helping hand boosted modest Water Spout and be able to KO it back with Horn Leech in grassy terrain (remembering that if they change your terrain or intimdate you, you would need to use Wood Hammer instead which would KO your Bulu in the process). This is why top VGC players often keep their EV spreads private. For the role that Bulu would play on the team, it probably makes the most sense to focus on the offensive benchmarks and just hit some of the defensive benchmarks that you can.

So just some general tips with EV spreads, you generally want to have a nature that boosts the stat which you have the highest base in. So for example, Bulu's highest base stat is attack, so it's generally best to go for an Adamant nature as you get the most stat points from this. An exception to the rule would be something like Ferrothorn. It's highest stat is defence, but you actually need a Brave Nature (-speed to boost Gyro Ball damage and function in trick room) in order to hit the offensive benchmark of OHKOing no bulk Kyogre without a damage boosting item. Also a minor thing, if you have 8 EVs left over, it's best to place 4 in two stats that you haven't invested in previously. This is because it only takes 4 EVs to increase the stat by one point if it's going from 0 EVs to 4 EVs, but for every other stat point it takes 8 EVs (so to increase the stat by another point starting from 4 EVs, you would need to go up to 12 EVs). If you tinker around on showdown (making sure the Pokemon is at level 50, as EVs work differently at level 100) you'll see this for yourself.

So, just a quick example from the calcs I made. Let's say from testing I find that having the confidence to know that I can OHKO all Groudon regardless of spread (assuming they aren't +Def nature, which worst case it's a 50/50 whether Wood Hammer KO's) if grassy terrain is up is very important for the team. So I use enough EVs to hit that benchmark. With the remaining EVs, I want to make modest max sp.atk Kyogre's Ice Beam a 2HKO and Helping Hand Water Spout a 2HKO. I can do that with the following spread:

Tapu Bulu @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Grassy Surge
Level: 50
EVs: 76 HP / 204 Atk / 4 Def / 28 SpD / 196 Spe
Adamant Nature

I'm not saying this is a good spread, I'm just saying in a hypothetical world where I have done the calcs and know what benchmarks I'm hitting and what I am not and have decided that the benchmarks that I am hitting are more important for the team, this spread would work well.

So to summarise this spread:
Speedcreeps Tapu Koko which are speedcreeping max speed base 110s.
OHKOs all neutral defense natured Groudon with Wood Hammer in terrain.
Survives modest max sp.atk Kyogre's Ice Beam and Helping Hand boosted Water Spout (without crits)

If you were taking the team to a big tournament, you would probably also want to know the calcs of other attacks. For example, this spread would live a Timid max sp.atk Dazzling Gleam from +2 Xerneas more a little under 70% of the time, and under 20% of the time if it's Modest.

This is why it's kind of annoying to see people asking for us to give suggestions for their team when they haven't provided information for what their spreads are meant to do or even why a Pokemon is on the team so we could give spread recommendations to help that Pokemon perform its role better.

In a nut shell:
Example of a good team building help post
Example of a bad post

If I didn't explain optimising EV spreads very well or just want to hear somebody else explain it, Baz explains it quite well in this quite old video.

Edit: If you want an idea of how much thought the top VGC players put in to their spreads, watch Wolfe's VGC16 worlds winning team report. (I'd recommend watching it anyway, he's awesome.)
 
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I was just thinking about how three of my members were walled by Ferrothorn.

I'll start looking into EV spreads and experiment a bit more on Showdown. I'm thinking I'll update this in the future once I get a better idea of what I'm doing. Thank you so much for going so in depth with EVs, it cleared a lot of stuff up for me!
 

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