Tournaments SPL XV ADV Discussion

[Hclat]

I went 3-2 last week. I will try once more to write something more insightful than the flip of a coin. Also I'm predicting mcmeghan to lose again, this time to an 0-3 player.

ADV OU: Cyberodin L vs Baddummy W (0-100)
This is a good opportunity for Rick to break out of his mini-slump. Cyberodin's play is generally sharp, but his builds can be suspect. I'm picturing a spike balance mirror where Rick exploits a weakness to status.

ADV OU: M Dragon L vs SEA W (0-100)
Clear highlight here - these have been the two best ADVers thus far. SEA excels at breaking through defensive structures, and I don't anticipate M Dragon feeling inclined to mix up his pacing. While his play has been stellar the last two weeks, SEA will put him under another degree of pressure and punch through (with an unusual builder choice - but that's table stakes for SEA).

ADV OU: Mako W vs robjr L (100-0)
Rob was dominant last week, and I see little reason for him to deviate in his teamchoice. I think mako busts out something aggressive and unexpected here. Skarmory has an embarrassing 2-9 k/d ratio in SPL. Mako will put the death toll into the double digits.

ADV OU: Triangles W vs McMeghan L (100-0)
Another tough draw for Triangles, but I think the punching-up mindset will unlock something here for him. The ludicolo balance gamer will stifle the attack from milotic and Ronflex.

ADV OU: BIHI L vs Conflict W (0-100)
Last week made clear that the cryos are simply ahead of the ADV game. Unless their discord gets infiltrated, Bihi drops to 2-2.

 

[ojr]

this thread has died sadly. I am here to hopefully revive it.

Midseason recap of SPL XV.
The players:

the pool

We come into the later stage of SPL with 2 players undefeated. That being MDragon (4-0) and Conflict (3-0). MDragon has shown multiple things in his wins. Good preparation (W2 vs McMeghan, W3 vs Baddummy) and great vision + feeling for the game have lead him towards a great start so far. The matchups in the first 2 weeks were near unlosable. The week 4 game vs SEA showed his shakiest game thus far I feel as SEA couldve easily won this game with more patiently played gyarados. Nonetheless he was able to map out a good victory plan and same goes for W5 vs Mako where the suicune had a good matchup but not an autowin. He still made it a great threat by the way he played the game which shows he is on top of his game. I do feel though that MDragon has not been tested enough so far as hes played well but it has either been his matchup being good or the opponent perhaps not playing as optimal as they couldve had. Conflict is a different case, he came in to save the doomed slot of Leo after 2 weeks and has just showed up to play well with good teams. Solid play made him win versus Triangles, BIHI (this game featured some luck but you cant say he didnt play well) and robjr. The last one in particular I was most impressed by Conflict and he is showing he can be an absolute terror in ADV as well. I think both of these guys will keep up their streak so far and will drop about 1 or 2 games in the latter half of the tour. Favoring MDragon to get the better record of the 2.

After that we got a weird middle of the pack with 3-2 and 2-3 players. The 2 3-2 players are robjr and SEA. robjr has had a season of ups and downs from my perspective. His wins have been good performances but nothing spectacular either whereas his losses have been more outplayed losses. Basically rob has shown nothing abhorrently bad but nothing to me that has made me jump out of my seat either. I think he can similarly end the season to his record right now, about 5-4/4-5. SEA has shown also a mixed bag of potential. the loss to baddummy wasnt that bad as the SuperRachi matchup didnt allow for much more to be done there whereas the loss of MDragon couldve been better executed as I mentioned before. The wins have some shown some good play mixed with a bit of favorable luck? (W3 vs Mako, W5 vs CyberOdin) The luck in these games may have mattered but the game didnt allow it to show how it couldve been in a more "neutral" game. I have a bit more faith in SEA than robjr at the moment so I believe a positive regular season is definitely on the cards, about 6-3/5-4.

Then we got the 2-3 consisting of Mako, BIHI, Triangles and McMeghan. I think all 4 of these players have shown pretty good games for the most part. Its honestly just pretty telling for how competitive this pool is that these guys are the middle of the pack. Mako and BIHI have had pretty similar starts to this season where they both start 2-0 and then lost 3 in a row. It could be argued for both that they had an unlucky game (Mako vs SEA) (BIHI vs Conflict) either way for me I feel that their teamchoice may have been what has let them down in their losses so far, perhaps a case of a lack of support on the roster would be the case here. If they can get that together they are looking good for the rest of the season. Triangles and McMeghan had a pretty poor start but have managed to turn it around. I dont find their seasons very comparable though. I think Triangles play was lacking in the first 3 games and he has turned that around with pretty good teamchoices and better piloting than the first few weeks. McMeghan has had a season I moreso feel bad for as I think he played pretty well in his week 1 loss and his week 2 game was (near) unplayable. I think that he has looked fine for the most part so I think he can turn his negative season around the most easily out of everyone. I think all of these players can end up within 6-3 to 4-5.

Finally at the bottom of the pool we have Baddummy and the combined Tyrants slot who is also 2-3 but is definitely way more shaky as its been a shared slot by pkLeech and CyberOdin. Baddummy has had a bad start to SPL this year after his hot CI form is seemingly not transitioning to SPL. To me it seems so far he has been trying hard to differentiate himself a lot more from what he mainly used in CI. Which is a fair idea but it seems its not working out as it stands perhaps he will return to his beloved starmies and cloysters balances to rebound for the 2nd half of SPL. Maybe a 4-5 is still possible for regular season but its looking pretty rough right now... Even though the Tyrants core has shown more wins than Baddummy they have certainly felt the worst core of the tour. Their wins were also vs players who didnt look very strong this season (Leo 0-2, Baddummy 1-4). Besides that their dedicated ADV starter at the moment seems very unclear either. For now CyberOdin is the starter but hes 1 loss away from having the same record as pkLeech. Perhaps pkLeech will be thrown back in the mix or will SoulWind save the day, even though moving him out of BW seems highly unlikely.

The teams used:
Offense:

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SkarmOff: 5
SpecOff: 4
MagOff: 4
MixOff: 4
SmearOff: 2
SDPass: 1
Ninjask: 1
CMPass: 1

Balance:

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SkarmSpin: 5
Spikeless+Spin: 4
SkarmMag: 3
SkarmNoSpin: 1
P2: 1
DualBlob: 1
Cloy: 1

Stall:

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SkarmDug: 6
Forre: 5
Superman: 1

These stats mostly speak for themselves but the most interesting one is that Superman is on a decline as people are favoring different fat teams with SkarmDug and Forre variations.

What do you guys think of the teams we have seen so far in SPL? Who do you predict to have a great 2nd half of the season? Lets keep the discussion going!