Tournaments SPL XIII BW Predictions [$60 prize -- won by ara ara, runner-up elodin]

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approved by baton pass lord finchinator

This thread can be used to post your weekly predictions for all BW games, and not flood the discussion thread with predictions. Prediction posts with discussion/motivation included can still be posted in the discussion thread, if you want.

At the end of the tour (including playoffs), we will tally up all of the correct predictions from the most accurate players and the user with the most games correct will be the winner. We encourage everyone passionate about BW to post each week!

WEEK 1
  • [BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
  • [TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
  • [TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
  • [CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
  • [SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
WEEK 2
  • [CLA] SoulWind vs Finchinator [TIG]
  • [WOL] GaryTheGengar vs watashi [BIG]
  • [RAI] elodin vs Stareal [CRY]
  • [RUI] Dice vs Gilbert arenas [TYR]
  • [SHA] crucify vs peng [SCO]
 
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Raiza

is a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Top Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a defending SPL Championis a Past SPL Championis a Past WCoP Championis a Former Old Generation Tournament Circuit Champion
World Defender
  • [BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
  • [TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
  • [TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
  • [CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
  • [SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA] - my upset pick of the week, sw should always win on paper but i think peng can get him in the builder
 
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airfare

is a Tutoris a Tiering Contributoris a Site Content Manager Alumnusis a Social Media Contributor Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
OUPL Champion
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 

Finchinator

-OUTL
is a Tournament Directoris a Top Social Media Contributoris a Community Leaderis a Community Contributoris a Smogon Discord Contributoris a Top Tiering Contributoris a Contributor to Smogonis a Top Smogon Media Contributoris a Top Dedicated Tournament Hostis a Senior Staff Member Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past WCoP Championis the defending OU Circuit Championis a Two-Time Former Old Generation Tournament Circuit Champion
OU Leader
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA] - watashi has been consistent in this tier for a number of years while crucify is still on the newer side. I love seeing someone take up the tier and do well, but I think the playing and team advantages go to watashi with years of SPL experience and a good knowledge of what works for him. crucify had some crazy good ideas and then some more standard brings, but there is definitely a little room for refinement that watashi has been able to experience already. The main wildcard in this match-up is crucify's support (i.e: TDK) being able to manipulate watashi's past tendencies, which could tilt the scales. I think this is one of the closer games, but gonna side with the more proven for now.

[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI] - Say what you want about elodin having some scary lows and being easy to meme, but he's managed to hold his own in BW over many different tournaments. If he did not use the bad BP against me and tilt at the end of last season, he would've easily been positive after a monster start. I am not sure that monster start is the elodin we will get, but with Raiza and shoka helping him, I trust him to hold his own against the less proven half of the field. Gilbert has an interesting advantage here having teamed with elodin as a BW player last year, but with more chefs in the kitchen for the Raiders, they can work around this and make the most of their BW slot. I expect Gilbert to get better as the tournament goes on as he gains more BW experience at this level if he stays in it all tournament, but right now I think I favor elodin in the closest game of the week.

[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL] - GtG was smooth last year and I expect him to pivot into being a consistent name in the top half of BW circles with more of the same this year. Stareal shows some flash, but his sequencing is rough and his game sense may be a step behind more experienced opponents earlier in the season. He learns quick, as we have seen in other settings through other tiers, but this is a tough w1 draw. Teambuilding advantage defaults to GtG, who sticks with reliable teams that should give him a fighting chance, which is unsurprising given BKC's presence. Stareal is going to have to go above and beyond to win his fair share this season, but anything's possible. Favoring GtG decisively until I see more proof he can, in fact, do that.

[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA] - I love peng and watching him craft beautiful teams, but he's probably not a match for SoulWind, who is the best player out there. I expect SW to make quick work of peng in his SPL debut, but I hope he keeps it close on a personal level and bounces back soon. Curious about team choices more than anything else.
 

Lily

wouldn't that be fine, dear
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UU Leader
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA] - Crucify is carving a name for himself in the big leagues and that's honestly really great to see. It's not often you see new names pop up in these older generations; the barrier to entry is pretty high, and the turnover is also pretty low, so seeing a fresh player break in is great. With a strong BW cup run, a slew of seasonal results and having made finals in Classic, crucify is definitely not one to be underestimated at this point.

With that said, watashi is very good at mons and I think he'll win this pretty comfortably. Whereas crucify is likely to care too much as a result of this being his first time on the big stage, watashi is possibly most (in?)famous for being very carefree when it comes to pokemonning. I think crucify is likely to overthink things and bring a flawed team or make a crucial misstep in-game, which should guide watashi to a clean win if he doesn't mess up. Certainly not one-sided; crucify really is a weapon in this tier and can bust out some unbelievable bullshit to nail watashi with, so who knows where this is going, really.

[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]

[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI] - The famous saying goes "mons is mons", so I'm not too concerned with marcop's ability to do well in the away field of BW OU. I do think elodin is a little better though, and experience does matter. I'll admit I haven't watched either of these two play much, and certainly not recently; marcop made finals of the callous invitational (I think?) and that tells me he's likely in good form, but I do still rate elodin's overall experience with BW OU over anything else in a match between two fairly similarly skilled players.

[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL] - Stareal is as much of a zoomer as I am so seeing him in a boomer gen is pretty wild, but much like crucify, I think it's great to see Stareal get a starting opportunity here. He's been doing well in a whole bunch of tours for a while now - tho from what I remember, they were mostly SS. Lack of experience can make him a bit clicky at times, but he's still becoming a very solid overall player, and hey BW rewards aggression well so maybe overstepping won't be such a huge deal anyway.

GTG on the other hand had a great run in the tier last year and doesn't seem like he'll stop just yet. From the little I know of him he seems like he's got both a great grasp on this meta and a huge amount of passion for it, which I hope results in some cool teams with less explored mons and maybe even broken hail. While GTG hasn't been pumping out result after result like Stareal, I think he's still the clear on-paper favourite due to experience & superior meta knowledge. Excited to see if I can be proven wrong, though.

[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA] - Ouch. Tough week 1 draw for peng, that's for sure. Having teamed with peng for BW PL recently, I learned two things; a), peng is super fuckin cool, and b), do not underestimate he's capable of in the builder; watching him theorycraft Rotom (the raw one) in real time was a mind-expanding experience, and that certainly wasn't the only neat tech he came up with. peng is just really great at prep; it wouldn't surprise me to see him getting a great matchup against SW at all.

With that said there is certainly a playing gap here that I don't see peng overcoming in week 1. SW is the best BW player of all time for a reason; it doesn't matter how good your matchup is, you're never truly safe, and that's especially true in this tier. A couple of wild techs might throw him off, but I don't think it'll be enough to dethrone the king. Definitely the week 1 highlight imo.

It would appear Finch beat me to literally all of these. Rip. Owell, hope they're an interesting read anyway. Looking forward to watching all of these as usual and I'm glad to see so many new faces. here's to a good season!
 

Fakee

LA FLAME
is a Tutor
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 

Ara ara

sayonara
is a Social Media Contributor Alumnus
  • [BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
  • [TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
  • [TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
  • [CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
  • [SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 

kumiko

formerly TDK
is a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Site Content Manager Alumnusis a Senior Staff Member Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Top Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a Four-Time Past WCoP Champion
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 

MANNAT

Follow me on twitch!
is a Social Media Contributor Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 

TJ

Banned deucer.
is the Smogon Tour Season 34 Championis a Past SPL Championis a Two-Time Past SCL Champion
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 

Gamer1234556

"Because... Scald is a shit Ferro answer!!!"
I am not really used to doing stuff like this but here is my two cents.

[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]

Sorry Peng... its just that you have a really tough opponent...
 
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 

Nalorium

is a Tutoris a Community Contributoris a Tiering Contributoris the defending BW Circuit Champion
World Defender
BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 
[BIG] watashi vs crucify [SHA]
[TIG] Finchinator vs Dice [RUI]
[TYR] Gilbert arenas vs elodin [RAI]
[CRY] Stareal vs GaryTheGengar [WOL]
[SCO] peng vs SoulWind [CLA]
 
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