Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 7

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Kushalos

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Week 7:
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn [SER]

Jrdn looked great last week with some anti meta picks in Trev and the crammer. I feel like his building is really up there rn and hes finally starting to come through with his play as well. I feel like Ho3n kinda messed up his endgame last week when he probably shouldve taken his chance with the ninjask SD on the qwil and im really not a fan of running dark resistless teams rn. Edge to jrdn.

[NAG] elodin vs GW [AST]

When i played him last week i felt like elodin was in touch with the meta. Hes just yet to come through with the wins somehow, but i have faith that he can do it. GWs play felt pretty sus last week. I wasnt particularly fond of turn 14 especially where he let his gurdurr take a burn when it was a really good switchin to the thievul. What he shouldve done was get in rotom-fan through his washi's u-turn, especially since he had wisp for the stunfisk. This one goes to Elodin.

[COB] Sjneider vs CyberOdin:cross: [BUS]

Both these guys came off losses last week. Odins pivoting around the silv drag was fairly awkward and his team really disrespected the jask. Sjneiders team was full of surprises with the fantasticly annoying ninetales set and i feel like he did the best he could playing around that powerful tree. Giving this one to Sjneider by a small margin.

[LIN] Realistic Waters vs aim [TAI]

Really exciting game. I feel like aim will be able to decipher RWs wacky teams well enough to come through with a win unless waters counters by giving up the boots on everything and running actual items since aim doesnt fuck with the rocks anymore. Looking forward to this one the most.

Shame on you Finchinator , i will forgive dr TonyFlygon though since hes saving lives.
 

FlamingVictini

FV - msg on discord FlamingVictini#3784
is a Top Tiering Contributorwon the 16th Official Smogon Tournamentis a Three-Time Past WCoP Champion
Turns out if you don't start writing predictions early, life catches up to you and it never happens. For my amusement, I went back to see how well I did last time I did predicts (in week 4).
OU: 8/16 | DOU: 1/4 | UU: 3/4 | RU: 2/4 | NU: 1/4 | PU: 3/4 | LC: 2/4. Might as well replace me with the ape
.

Onto the predictions! I've got three more weeks of replays to cover and several new players slotted in, so this will be exciting.

OU: lax vs Rexus - Lax has been one of the strongest players throughout, so its hard not to expect him to take this. However, I do think he has been slipping up a tiny bit. Lax is a player I expect to pilot HO with precision unlike most others, but I was pretty dissapointed with his early game sequencing vs Gefärhlicher. Granted the Specs Pult caught him off guard, but I feel he had strong winning chances with both Shifu -> Lucha (or vice versa) and Rilla -> Azu, and could have afforded to use his zone to play more cautiously and create a better opportunity for this sequencing. He did actually do a fantastic job of almost clawing it back, so I can't knock him too hard for expecting a standard pult. Rexus has actually posted a solid record thus far and taken down some tough opponents like Sacri', though he hasn't had the cleanest execution always. I think he's a strong player but my opinion of lax is too high to not favor him here.

OU: talah vs BK - BK has been putting up an impressive run of wins with a diverse variety of team compositions against a host of skilled opponents. I'm not sure how sound the stalls he brought actually were, but I can't deny that they brought a good lead advantage vs both punny and eo and he executed well. Overall his team choices have been excellent and difficult to prepare for, and he hasn't shown any signs of slipping up. Talah meanwhile is fresh in on the action after Fear asked to sit this one out. Honestly, while Talah's building is not bad I'm not much a fan and I strongly doubt it will be good enough to secure an advantage. The Rattlers have shown several flashes of ingenuity and clever compositions, but by and large have been bringing flavorless Clef-Corv balances. This isn't necessarily bad in itself, but I think BK will be able to take advantage of this. Talah also hasn't been the strongest pilot in the past and has been sitting out from playing for a while. I expect BK to win this one handily.

OU: Samqian vs John W - Sam has been facing a lot of tough opponents recently, and I always get excited seeing his matchups since I feel he always has a strong shot to pull the upset against more established players. Sam impressively stood patient and held the fort in front of mcnmt's maxed out Corviknight with his own speedy airborne taxi. While he got completely shut down by ima's SubCM Clefable the following week, he was able to dominate ZDen last week with Hatt + Chand with clean execution, as he should as the stronger player. Overall, I think Sam has what it takes to tango with anyone and he'll generally deliver vs those weaker than him, though I wouldn't give him the edge here. John has been putting up some solid games, though I will say I haven't been a fan of many his recent team brings. His Hurricane Zard Sun was a tad cringe-inducing, though I'll admit he got dealt a rough hand with Ewin's counterteam. I don't really know how he could justify his triple flying team, though. Regaradless his performance and history has been decent enough that I'd give him the edge here had this game not already happened.

OU: Kebab mlml vs ramboss - I think all of ramboss' games are ones you simply must catch live. His teams always have a heavy sprinkling of spice, and last week he turned it up a notch with scyther rain. Things were looking dire in face of StormZone's subcm zera when ramboss had swapped out his scarf shifu for band, but he managed to land a crit to steal the game away anyway. I think its hard for me to deny that some of ramboss's approaches have been unsound, but they definitely have been fun and I'm excited to see what he uses next. Kebab on the other hand brings pretty typical teams and generally plays out a decent enough game. However he seems to be struggling to convert based on his record, so I'll go with ramboss here.

DOU: Ezrael vs Nails - Wow. This is a game I must catch live. Nails and Ezrael have been at the top of the doubles metagame for while now, pioneering meta-defining team comps like cringe sun and mew spikes. Ezrael has definitely gotten back into his groove, reversing his 0-3 start to even out his record. Meanwhile, Nails has maintained his spot at the top of the pool, and taken down some especially strong opponents like Umbry and Memoric. While this is very close, I think the edge in this battle will either come from the teams they bring or a critical mid-game prediction. And for that, I will lean a little bit more towards Nails, as his recent teams have been keeping himself a half-step ahead of the meta and he's also had some creative showings like with hail. I may also have some bias here from Nails teaching me VGC and providing me with a lot of fantastic teams - I think his fundamental aptitude for mons is incredibly strong. That said, I'd probably give a very slight edge to Ezrael in an even mu due to his experience. Looking forward to this one.

UU: CBU vs hs - This is a tough one for me to call. CBU's performance has definitely been falling a bit below expectations lately, though I still feel he has what it takes. Things were looking good vs SW till CM sylveon ripped his team apart, and vs Sabella I felt like he had really strong chances but missed the larger picture and allowed sabella to improve his odds in the endgame a bit too much. I think if he ups his mid-game he'll probably be one of the strongest opponents in the pool, but his record is not there atm. Also, while hs hasn't been fantastic, he did play an excellent game leveraging his strong advantage with chandelure after turn 1 to defeat Soulwind. I think I'll give this one to CBU off of experience and I think he can get a solid team matchup, but if hs continues to trend upwards he could definitely send CBU on a downward spiral.

RU: Ajna vs odr - Ajna has looked really solid againt everyone, winning many games handily and generally keeping the advantage even in closer ones. Odr hasn't looked that great to me though. He got a bit lucky last week with a toxic miss on mantine, and his shiinotic bring seemed dubious at best. His previous game vs pepe wasn't so great either. Odr definitely isn't a weak player and he should put up a good match, but I think Ajna will be able to generally outmaneuver him throughout.

NU: bugzinator vs Kushalos - Another banger of a matchup. Gosh its already taking me so long to even come up with my predictions let alone write them. Both these players bring really cool teams with smart, clever sets and techs and play out solid games. I can't help but feel like Kush was dominating last week and seemed to let the game slip towards the end only to clutch it with some fortune vs elodin's ninjask, but overall his play has been fine imo and I rate his techs slightly higher, mostly because I'm quite impressed with the SubSeed Knock Whims set last week which was really smart on his team imo. Bugz pulled off some sharp plays with his grassvally and qwilfish to outmanuever ho3n and overall I think I'd rate his piloting a little higher. I feel bad predicting against the undefeated chef but I think I'll give bugz the edge here as I think he'll be bringing a good team and will be able to pull the trigger in tricky situations if he has a worse mu.

PU: Vulpix03 vs Hamhamhamhamham - Vulpix got some good wins vs Xiri and False earlier, and while his match vs King Tut was a beatdown, I can't really blame him as his mu looked tough and Ktüt has been unstoppable. Ham on the other hand looked to be in a tricky spot last week and was clawing it back with his alcremie, however I really hate that he did not find an earlier opportunity to acid armor on the jolteon one more time after he barely hung on with some CM boosts. He could have also clicked it before resting vs Kanga, and this would have avoided the forced rest-cycling sequence, which would have given Kink far fewer chances to land a crit. By the time he did it was very late, and although at that point his odds were pretty good Kink did eventually land that game-saving crit in time. I think Ham can definiely take this but he will need to focus on his execution with his wincons.

LC: Serene Grace vs Xizaaa - I've been generally pretty impressed with Xizaaa, as a new starter to the team tour scene he's been putting on an admirable performance and I think his fundamentals and execution have been strong. That said Serene Grace has been really good, and Xizaa is more likely to have blips in his thought process due to inexperience as has happened in a few games. Serene definitely has the advantage, though I think this matchup is closer than it seems.
OU: xray vs Tamahome - Mostly going off of gut here, as Tama is all around one of the best players on the site, and his performance so far has been very strong. Xray is absolutely no slouch and has been putting up a good run himself, but I feel like Tama will be able to pull the triggers to outmaneuver xray in a disadvantageous situation to turn the game around if he needs to. If xray can build a strong lead with matchup and the early game though, I think he'll be able to take it. Congrats on 100 wins Tama!

OU: Relous vs Vaboh - Neither player has been having a fantastic run so far. Vaboh is a newer player from what I know and subbed in a few weeks ago. He hasn't looked bad, however I don't think he had to work very hard for his sole win vs Indigo's slightly wonky HO, so I'm not yet too convinced. While Relous hasn't been putting on the performance he wants so far, he has much more experience under his belt and some past solid performances to back it up. Considering he has support from his German brethren I think he'll be able to put in the prep work to take this comfortably. Plus, it would be disrespectful for me to predict against him after my humiliating defeat to his magearna a few WCoPs ago.

OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs Star - LBP2 is actually 2-0 rn, which is a pleasant surprise. I'm not sure how sound Darmanatan is in the OU meta, but it certainly put in work. Although Star hasn't looked the greatest as of late, though, he's still certainly a tier or two higher than LBP2 in my eyes. Unless Star rolls into this game unprepared and LBP2 has a good mu, I think Star can definitely use this game to get back on an upward trend.

OU: Gefährlicher Random vs watashi - fooly fell down to earth the past few weeks, reversing his 3-0 run into a 3-3. While he has largely been bringing typical generic solid teams, I'd say he definitely ran into some very difficult matchups to overcome vs Finch and 1TL. I'd say FLCL should probably bring something more proactive if he's losing to CM Reuniclus and CB Perior + Zone. TDR has been performing quite well lately, posting on a respectable 4-2 record and taking out some strong opponents such as lax. His teams have looked solid as well, and while I feel he may have made a few odd plays vs mncmt I think he's been largely competitive in every game. Based on how this tournament has gone I think this matchup will be closer than anticipated.

DOU: Frania vs DLT JRL BELL - This is an interesting matchup. Both players are 2-4 with wins against weaker players in the pool, though I think frania has been performing a bit better. He brought a solid team last week and had his decent winning chances ruined by an untimely crit, meanwhile the JRL brought a very spicy looking team but had no answer for the typical kommo set-up we saw used by the vast majority of players in recent games, which casts a bit of suspicion on his prep work. I think based off of their most recent games frania has looked better so I'll go for him here.

UU: Sabella vs Askov - Going with the hot hand here as Sabella is on an upward trend, and I think its really impressive in its own right to start the tour 0-4 and pull back up for two wins in a row, especially after choking week 1 and some of the other games just seeming hopeless without knowing what was really going wrong. Big props to Sabella for sticking it through and getting on the sheet. Askov started his run with two solid wins, but since then his typical balances have been getting overwhelmed by the more aggressive teams from adaam and Lilburr. Last week especially was a beatdown, barely hanging on to a turn 1 DD necrozma only to get forcibly set-up on and cleaned by a linoone. I'd reckon he'd try to change something here, as Sabella might bring an aggressive-ish team of his own.

RU: Charmflash vs Mazinger - Going completely off the fact that Charmflash's team last week just seemed really poor to my outside perspective, and I feel like mazinger brought something reasonable and made decent enough plays but didn't judge the value of his mons midgame correctly and got ripped too wide open by snaga's fire bug. I'm not sure of the foul play roll on Centi but not ko'ing there was game-changing too. I think had he gone balls deep and clicked SD at one point with lycanroc, he might have been able to clean Snaga's team with +2 Sucker and Edge. Overall a few missed plays from Mazinger, but his team seemed reasonable and had some neat techs so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

NU: Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn - Jrdn looked pretty good last week and his spice pick in the spooky tree was a great call that put in a lot of work. Foul Play fisk was also a nice tech for sub rotoms looking for a free set-up opportunity. It looked like he got a bit lucky at the end with a wingbeat crit on neider's escav, but I honestly am not completely sure what the game would have looked like had that not happened. And overall, his play and attention in the builder inspire confidence. Ho3n also played out a solid game vs bugzi, though he was outplayed in several important turns in the midgame, and I think he missed a chance or two to roll things more in his favor mid-game. I think Jrdn has also been a bit more solid throughout the tour, so I'll give it to him here.

PU: Ktütverde vs obii - Probably the only remaining week where I won't bold the obii the GOAT. He looks to be strong on track for a 6-3 record, though I think King Tut will be delivering that third loss. Ktüt has looked dominant in every single game he's played so far, not just posting a flawless 4-0 record but I believe he won his games with a large margin to boot. I can't really predict against that, though I do think obii does have decent chances and will at least make it close.

LC: Wail Wailord vs tko - Wail has been turning up this tour, proving his LCPL record was no fluke. He's on a bit of a downward trend, but I think overall his play has shown promise. Meanwhile tko has only played two games so far and the only win was vs shrug throwing the game, so I'll need to see a bit more.
OU: ima vs BIHI
OU: Regnite vs Raiza
OU: robjr vs Tace
OU: Sacri' vs Finchinator
DOU: Memoric vs Paraplegic
UU: SoulWind vs Accelgor
RU: Kink vs Feliburn
NU: elodin vs GW
PU: false vs z0mOG
LC: Ninjadog vs LilyAC
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs dice
OU: Jytcampbell vs High Impulse
OU: beatiful vs Void
OU: Garay oak vs Eeveeto
DOU: umbreon098 vs Kiichikos
UU: Moutemoute vs Adaam
RU: Pepeduce vs Expulso
NU: Realistic Waters vs aim
PU: TJ vs tlenit
LC: dcae vs Osh
~~ So I started writing these and lost the steam to finish, but I wanted to at least post what I'd already written. So Rattlers/Leviathans and Mambas/Serents, y'all get descriptions, the rest will just be predicts this time, unless I get a jolt of motivation to edit in more descriptions :psysad: ~~
 

Finchinator

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OU Leader
I will be batting Sacri' for the Smogon Salt Draft on Sunday between noon and 1pm GMT-4, good luck Cry-onicle brother. Here are some predictions to honor Bushtush freedom week!

OU: lax vs Rexus - lax may have two recent losses, but he did what he could last week and he's still one of the best players. Rexus won against Sacri' with one of the more weird teams I have ever seen, but win is a win and he finds a way to keep making it work. I favor lax here based off of his gameplay abilities, but this one can easily go either way depending on team choice and early game.

OU: talah vs BK - The fear experiment lasted a mere six weeks, unfortunately. I would have stuck with him given the potential upside as you already know what you are getting in talah and could have always stuck him in later, but I respect the urgency of the decision given that we are mid-playoff race. I do not think putting talah in is objectively wrong and I do think he may give a greater chance of beating the average player, but BK is surging recently, so I favor him. Fear may have had better chances off of sheer upside alone, but giving talah a week or two to get settled before a potential playoff run is entirely fair. Regardless of who is in here, I side with BK just given how excellent he has been.

OU: Samqian vs John W - already predicted this one flawlessly, as usual

OU: Kebab mlml vs ramboss - Kebab strikes me as a bit better in-game. His record may not be where he wants, but I trust in the Italian to bounce back. ramboss is somewhat likely to win every game off of his balls-to-the-walls preparation and unorthodox playstyle, but Kebab has been mostly solid. I know he suffered a few tough losses and I know there were some mistakes in there, but overall I think he will get it together. This is a closer game and honestly it can go either way, but I like Kebab's team and he was having a pretty good year up until this point. With that said, ramboss makes this one a spectacle -- should be interesting.

DOU: Ezrael vs Nails
UU: CBU vs hs
RU: Ajna vs odr - Ajna hit his groove, so he may not lose again until he plays god Feliburn.
NU: bugzinator vs Kushalos - Kushalos prove me wrong, you won't. Bugzy has been phenomenal, really finding ways to win with some solid teams. Kushalos has arguably been one of the best in the tournament though. I think this is his toughest match-up yet and I feel like bugzy is going to be able to adapt to the weirdness kushalos may bring, so I will side with him. But honestly this one is like some 51-49 shit, both are great.
PU: Vulpix03 vs Hamhamhamhamham
LC: Serene Grace vs Xizaaa

OU: xray vs Tamahome - Already happened though

OU: Relous vs Vaboh - I am still on the Vaboh train. He shows a lot of potential, even if he has had some tough games so far. This guy will eventually find his groove and start winning, much like WCOP. Relous is more experienced and the conventional pick, for good reason as well. Relous has been around and had some great showings, this past SPL aside. I feel like he may be better at SM than SS and I also have not been the most thrilled about his team choices personally. Maybe it is just me being overly-picky or maybe I just am too much of a Vaboh fan, but I see him pulling the upset. Relous is still a great player who has put up strong results -- it's no surprise why xray and co. picked him up, but I side with the pride of the West here.

OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs Star - If Star wants to salvage this Snake, he has to win this one. That simple. I do not know LBP2 well enough, but Star's good enough to make it work when needed most.

OU: Gefährlicher Random vs watashi - FLCL is really good at SS OU and Pokemon in general. I do not care if he lost his last few and I doubt he does at this point either; he is focused on moving forward positively and he will. FLCL brings solid teams, but they have some overlap in vulnerabilities and so long as he distances from that, he will be in good shape.

DOU: Frania vs DLT JRL BELL
UU: Sabella vs Askov - Happened
RU: Charmflash vs Mazinger - Charmflash is probably a little better, but still unsure what to think about Mazinger in RU. I feel like he'll be solid, but Charm has some good wins already.
NU: Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn - Jrdn has had some really bad games, but I am still a believer. I have been on the Ho3n train, too, but I will side with experience and support here.
PU: Ktütverde vs obii
LC: Wail Wailord vs tko

OU: FMG vs Lopunny Kicks - Punny is a bit more in-touch with building and strikes me as a slightly better player atm. Both are solid and FMG will give Punny a run for his money, but I do not oftentimes see him overtaking top players. I think that Punny will probably load up a relatively normal balance for his standards and edge him out.

OU: mncmt vs Leo - mncmt has been on fire all year long. He has a wide array of teams he is comfortable piloting, he is not afraid to take big risks, and he is super experienced in this particular metagame. Leo is solid and I do not doubt his ability to win, as seen with his game against another strong opponent in Sacri', but I think he will fall short here. mncmt's year of brilliance will continue.

OU: 1 True Lycan vs frisoeva - The Baron has had some fresh ideas and strong plays during this tour. Yea, he had some sloppy moments, too, but overall it's a net positive. friso has his fair share of cool showings as well, but I rank him as a bit less consistent than 1TL. It was fun seeing him shift to another tier for a week and perhaps that will really get him surging back in OU, too, but until I see proof of that, I gotta side with 1TL, who has managed to keep his opponent's on their toes throughout the tournament.

OU: TPP vs Bloody alfa - Bloody is just better, imho. He had a great early year run between STour and WCOP. He may not be as hot now as he was then, but he's still more than good enough to win games in Snake. I think TPP had a great win against Vaboh, but he still needs a bit more experience to reach Bloody's level. I reckon team choice will be a large factor here as if TPP can get comfortable in the early-game, he tends to excel. His games against Vaboh here and Trosko during WCOP are great examples of this. If he struggles early, I do not see him coming back, especially as Bloody is not one to throw away winnable positions.

DOU: Qwello Lee vs qsns
UU: Lilburr vs pokemonisfun - Finally
RU: snaga vs soulgazer
NU: Sjneider vs CyberOdin✝ - Lower tier highlight of the week. Odin is an absolute beast, but NU is still Neider's tier. Excited to see teams and play here.
PU: Xiri vs Santu - Good change by the Bushmasters, but rough first match in PU for Santu.
LC: Z Strats vs Kingler - Usually DOU players pick-up surprise wins in UU, not LC. But hey, anything is possible, especially when Kingler is on the other side. Still gotta bold my man though, he is more proven in LC afaik.

OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs dice - Mandatory weekly predict against Eo.

OU: Jytcampbell vs High Impulse - Jyt plays nicely, but he does have a comfort zone. I think that the Taipans, and High Impulse in particular, need to be able to abuse it. I do not know if they will be able to though and I feel that Jyt is a solid enough pilot to pick up this win because of that. All bets are off if someone loads up Slowbro-G though.

OU: beatiful vs Void - bea is a strong player this generation, even if he is still mostly inexperienced. Void is hit-or-miss as he's a great player, but this is not really a tier he is experienced in. I will side with recent competency, but it can go either way for sure.

OU: Garay oak vs Eeveeto - Happened

DOU: umbreon098 vs Kiichikos
UU: Moutemoute vs Adaam
RU: Pepeduce vs Expulso - Happened
NU: Realistic Waters vs aim - Absolute thriller. Rivaling Sjneider-Odin for the best lower tier game for me this week. Both guys are fantastic players with interesting metagame views. I think it will come down to a few plays later on and I know Joey has balls of steel, so I'll side with my guy in what is bound to be a highlight. Cannot miss NU game here.
PU: TJ vs tlenit - TJ hit his groove, seems hard to stop now.
LC: dcae vs Osh


OU: For those interested, the first post-Crown Tundra (DLC2) OU tournament is currently in its sign-up phase here. It can be used as a fun chance to play the new metagame without much on the line, unlike Smogon Tour! Huge shoutout to TPP for hosting!
UU: avarice discussed some highlights from recent games here!
RU: Goatrex strikes again with an absolutely fantastic post covering usage, trends, and more here! A huge thumbs up to my friend who has went well out of his way to provide great RU coverage every week in this thread; I would strongly advise giving each of his posts a read. Everyone's favorite llama enthusiast also made an insightful post here!
NU: Expulso had some great metagame analysis and game insights here as well. He was able to outline a number of important facets of recent NU games that you won't want to miss.
PU: RahelGamer03 discussed some highlights from week 6 PU games here with a great amount of detail provided.
LC: DC posted about some trends and a common core in the LC metagame here to give us some perspective to what we have seen thus far.
DOU: Welcome to the entry hazard dimension
Astrotias: Let's win this week pls

e: don't let feli's hate bring u down fv, keep on going boss
 
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