Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 2

Status
Not open for further replies.

kjdaas

this girl rly slapped some letters together huh
is a Community Contributoris a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Top Dedicated Tournament Host Alumnus

>Spreadsheet<
>
Schedule <
Shoutouts: Ticken for the sheet improvements and Serene Grace for the schedule sheet!
Tournament Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups:


Terminus Taipans (4) vs (6) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: dice vs Kebab mlml
OU: Eeveeto vs Samqian
OU: High Impulse vs Fear
OU: le LLiolae vs lax
DOU: Kiichikos vs Ezrael
UU: Adaam vs CBU
RU: Expulso vs Ajna
NU: aim vs bugzinator
PU: tlenit1 vs Roseybear
LC: Osh vs Serene Grace


Berry Forest Bushmasters (1) vs (9) Sky Tower Lindworms

OU: Bloody alfa vs Jytcampbell
OU: Santu vs Eo Ut Mortus
OU: frisoeva vs Ewin
OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Garay oak
DOU: qsns vs umbreon098
UU: Ramolost vs Poek
RU: roman vs Pepeduce
NU: CyberOdin✝ vs Realistic Waters
PU: soulgazer vs TJ
LC: Kingler vs dcae


Ambrette Astrotias (5) vs (5) Celadon City Cobras

OU: BIHI vs mncmt
OU: Raiza vs FMG
OU: Tace vs Steve Angello
OU: Finchinator vs 1 True Lycan
DOU: Paraplegic vs Qwello Lee
UU: Accelgor vs Lilburr
RU: Feliburn vs snaga
NU: GW vs Sjneider
PU: keppy vs Xiri
LC: LilyAC vs Shrug


Shinto Ruin Serpents (3) vs (7) Lanakila Nagas

OU: watashi vs robjr
OU: Tamahome vs Sacri'
OU: Star vs Storm Zone
OU: Malekith vs ima
DOU: DLT JRL BELL vs Memoric
UU: vivalospride vs SoulWind
RU: Nat vs atomicllamas
NU: Jrdn vs Ren-chon
PU: obii vs Kink
LC: Mazinger vs Ninjadog


Lake of Rage Leviathans (7) vs (3) Black City Mambas

OU: the pharoah vs ZDen
OU: ramboss vs xray
OU: BK vs Gefährlicher Random
OU: John W vs Relous
DOU: Nails vs Frania
UU: Luigi vs Sabella
RU: odr vs Charmflash
NU: Kushalos vs Ho3nConfirm3d
PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs eifo
LC: Xizaaa vs Wail Wailord

Deadline will be September 13th, 9:00 PM EST.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Gray

stop ballcapping
is a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Past WCoP Champion
i'll put chances on the ones i have a better idea of

Terminus Taipans (5) vs (4) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: dice vs Kebab mlml
OU: Eeveeto (60) vs Samqian (40)
OU: High Impulse vs Fear - upset
OU: le LLiolae vs lax
DOU: Kiichikos (49) vs Ezrael (51)
UU: Adaam (55) vs CBU (45)
RU: Void vs Ajna
NU: aim vs bugzinator
PU: tlenit1 vs Roseybear
LC: Osh (55) vs Serene Grace (45)

Berry Forest Bushmasters (6) vs (3) Sky Tower Lindworms

OU: Bloody alfa vs Jytcampbell
OU: Santu (45) vs Eo Ut Mortus (55)
OU: frisoeva (51) vs Ewin (49) - this matchup again..
OU: Lopunny Kicks (55) vs Garay oak (45)
DOU: qsns vs umbreon098
UU: Ramolost vs Poek - go ramo
RU: roman vs Pepeduce
NU: CyberOdin✝ vs Realistic Waters - idk
PU: soulgazer vs TJ
LC: Kingler (60) vs dcae (40)

Ambrette Astrotias (0) vs (0) Celadon City Cobras

OU: BIHI vs mncmt
OU: Raiza vs FMG
OU: Tace vs Steve Angello
OU: Finchinator vs 1 True Lycan
DOU: Paraplegic vs Qwello Lee - idk
UU: Accelgor (45) vs Lilburr (55)
RU: Feliburn vs snaga
NU: GW vs Sjneider - go gw
PU: keppy vs Xiri
LC: LilyAC (60) vs Shrug (40)

Shinto Ruin Serpents (3) vs (7) Lanakila Nagas

OU: watashi (49.5) vs robjr (50.5)
OU: Tamahome vs Sacri'
OU: Star (60) vs Storm Zone (40) - a fan of storm zone but star is too good here
OU: Malekith vs ima
DOU: DLT JRL BELL vs Memoric
UU: vivalospride vs SoulWind
RU: Nat vs atomicllamas
NU: Jrdn vs elodin
PU: obii vs Kink
LC: Mazinger (35) vs Ninjadog (65)

Lake of Rage Leviathans (6)
vs (3) Black City Mambas

OU: Rexus vs ZDen
OU: ramboss vs xray
OU: BK vs Gefährlicher Random
OU: John W (60) vs Relous (40)
DOU: Nails vs Frania
UU: Luigi vs Sabella
RU: odr (55) vs Charmflash (45)
NU: Kushalos vs Ho3nConfirm3d
PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs Ktütverde
LC: Xizaaa (50) vs Wail Wailord (50) - i've always thought they were even, should be interesting
 

IPF

sundown
is a Tiering Contributor Alumnus
Back for OU predicts again, got 12/19 right last week (not counting the sub game), so I'm better than the ape for now. Since we're a week in I can give better reasoning than "X is Italian", but I only did that because it was the most recent tour and assumed they'd all be hot coming off it (even if it did work for week 1).

SS OU: dice vs Kebab mlml - Both players coming off a loss, although dice pulled up with Serene Grace Blissey?? I was expecting something weird but this one was a bit too much. I liked Kebab's team choice even if he did lose, and I think he'll pull up with something solid and take this
SS OU: Eeveeto vs Samqian - Feel like Sam got bailed by a timely crit last week which pretty much ended the game on the spot so it's difficult to take much away from that. Eeveeto brought woat mon Talon which is a bad sign but his recent form is too good to not bold
SS OU: High Impulse vs Fear - Fear's SS debut was interesting, Rattlers gave him a pretty solid team but I feel like some of the interactions weren't spot on while Impulse got smacked last week by Daunt+Pult so it's tough to call, I'll favour Fear just because of his tournament track record
SS OU: le LLiolae vs lax - lax did lax things and impressed last week navigating the sun matchup nicely, LLL wasn't particularly bad last week but his Clef matchup was horrendous, I'll bold lax here

SS OU: Bloody alfa vs Jytcampbell - Jyt played well last week against Malekith while alfa wasn't particularly impressive against lax, however he's been on fire for a while now so I expect him to bounce back this week
SS OU: Santu vs Eo Ut Mortus - Great matchup, Santu has been brilliant the last few months and I really liked his team week 1 and Eo had a great game against Star so this could go either way, gut says Eo will take it
SS OU: frisoeva vs Ewin - friso was pretty unfortunate with his week 1 game while Ewin had horrible matchup and both will be looking to bounce back, I think friso has been in better form as of late however
SS OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Garay oak - Punny played a solid game and has shown to be a premier player so I'll bold him here

SS OU: BIHI vs mncmt - BIHI played a great game against Impulse and mncmt got pretty fortunate against John, however I think mncmt is more accomplished in the tier and is favoured here
SS OU: Raiza vs FMG - Raiza has been brilliant as of late so it's hard not to pick him. FMG didn't play particularly poorly last week but losing to Toge with a CM Blissey must be a sin
SS OU: Tace vs Steve Angello - Both players coming off wins, I'll stick with Tace since he's been great this gen but I wouldn't count Steve out
SS OU: Finchinator vs 1 True Lycan - Apart from supposed "misclicks", Finch played a solid game week 1, 1TL brought a cool pick in Heracross last week which didn't pan out as planned. Gonna favour Finch here

SS OU: watashi vs robjr - Highlight game, watashi has been great all year while rob hasn't lost a mon in an official tournament OU game in like 3 months. Could honestly go either way but I'll stick with the more consistent option
SS OU: Tamahome vs Sacri' - Both players played well week 1 and once again could go either way but I'll go with Sacri for his more recent results
SS OU: Star vs Storm Zone - Another great game, really want SZ to excel here but I do believe Star will bounce back this week
SS OU: Malekith vs ima - Mr. 8-3 in snake started off with a win using the same team lax did and I expect him to pull out another win this week

SS OU: Rexus vs ZDen - Rexus was subbed out last week and I'm curious as to whether he was going to bring the double mag build the pharaoh did, either way I think he takes this one because I haven't seen enough from ZDen in SS to bold him
SS OU: ramboss vs xray - xray became the latest victim of the robjr train but I do expect him to bounce back this week, although I don't expect it to be easy as ramboss was great week 1 loading up TR, a style I thought would die after the Gear ban
SS OU: BK vs Gefährlicher Random - Tough one to predict, both played well and got wins so I'll go with the more proven entity in BK
SS OU: John W vs Relous - Unfortunate loss for John last week with Discharge paras coming into play at crucial moments in the game, fully expect him to come back strong this week. Relous is solid but it's difficult to bold him here

I suppose it's necessary to mention that I'm not trying to diss anyone with these predicts, just my opinions. Feel free to prove me wrong, good luck to everyone!
 
Alright, alright.. fine. Only because I'm trying to reach a 1:25 post to like ratio, though..

:psysly:


OU: Bloody alfa vs Jytcampbell - This prediction may seem counter intuitive, as Bloody alfa lost his week 1 game while Jyt beat Malekith. However, neither result has affected my confidence in either player too much to deviate from my views on them before the tournament started. Bloody alfa and the Bushmasters, imo, took their anti-offense prep for lax way too far. With Scarf Charizard and Sub DD Dragapult Sun you're probably going too far down the alpha rabbit hole. While we're on the topic of alphas, I rate Bloody alfa (close enough..) very highly and his consistent success in this generation has been very impressive. I've seen him up close as my WCoP team mate and can't go against him here. Jyt, as mentioned, is coming off a win, but as much as it pains me to write this, that more so felt like Malekith was coming off a loss. The Excadrill vs. Kommo-o sequence felt very off to me and ultimately resulted in post Knock Off Specs Magnezone becoming unstoppable. Jyt had some awkward early game plays, which culminated in both Urshifu and Magnezone losing their respective boosting Choice-items. All in all I'm not won over yet, but if Jyt manages to beat Bloody alfa as well it'll be hard to snub him again.

OU: Santu vs Eo Ut Mortus - It'll only become more and more challenging to not just write "Italian player." as my sole reasoning for Italian featured games as this post progresses, but let's at the very least use it as a first argument for now. In fact, the only loss from an Italian player came against another Italian player... Look, they're just better than us. I don't know how else to spin it. Santu is on a ridiculous hot streak and simply can't seem to lose right now; even more so than most of the other Italians, who are also winning a lot. Eo also won his week 1 game and did so against a fellow round 1 pick, which obviously holds value. That said, the game was a bit of a messy one and Eo had more than one break going his way. I think Eo is going to have a good tournament, but I wasn't impressed enough last week to go rogue and predict against the Italians.

OU: frisoeva vs Ewin - Oof. I predicted Ewin to win last week and he got straight up picked apart. Sorry about that, Tama. Friso is a very interesting character to me. I really should be able to go into depth here, as I've teamed with friso in two official tournaments already, but a lot of what goes on in friso's mind is still a mystery to me. During our WCoP semi finals series against Germany he decided to go out drinking with the lads during his scheduled time, only to realize that he'd have to play on phone while living it up with his bros. He also feels the need to use crazy shit sometimes, besides his obsession with
:fukyu:
. On the other hand, I truly believe he's a great player. Apologies for the following string of words, but man he has a massive pair of testicles. He really does. That man isn't afraid of any play. Assuming he'll use a good team with, say, a Ground-type resistance, then I think he'll win. Ewin, simply put, got smashed. The Aegislash moveset was admittedly a rough match-up, but even then. My faith will have to be won again should Ewin want to be bolded once more in the future.

OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Garay oak - Haha go Spikes brrrrrrrrrrrr. Look, Punny likes what he likes and who are we to say anything about it. Clearly, it's working very well. As predictable as people may believe he is, he still puts up results in literally every tournament. As I'm writing this he's coming off a positive WCoP in which he was a very active builder, Slam playoffs, OLT playoffs and off to a winning start here in Snake, too. Also, Italian, obviously. Garay started off his campaign with a loss, but he faced one of the best players in the tournament, according to everyone but himself, in watashi. Garay has had a stellar year in lower tiers, specifically in the subforum premier leagues like NUPL and UPL. I also know Garay is very determined to have a good run in OU, yet he keeps running into opponents that are more experienced and more comfortable than him in OU. I hate predicting against my friend, but I'd be surprised if he won this one.

DOU: qsns vs umbreon098 - These two players are both coming off a week 1 win, but only one of them is Italian... qsns actually beat the unanimously #1 ranked player, Ezrael, with ease following an excellent team choice, so there is that. A team Ezrael helped build, btw. BKC has a word or two to say about using someone's own teams against them... In any case, qsns's match-up was incredible and Ezrael couldn't do a damn thing once he predicted the lead wrong. As for Umbry, she had a solid debut game herself. Her Corviknight had a spectacular match-up and she played a solid game all around, too. qsns' match-up was so free that I have yet to see whether or not they'll actually play a good game, while Umbry also had a more visibly good showing in the DOU circuit this year. I really don't feel safe about this prediction, as I believe both players to be among the top half of the pool, but I'm going with Umbry for now.

UU: Ramolost vs Poek - Poek is back and he won in typical experienced vs. inexperienced fashion. viv started their game off really well, but as the game progressed slipped up once or twice to let Poek back into the game. You can't do that against someone as good as Poek. I feel a similar situation brewing in this match-up. Ramolost, to his credit, is coming off a week 1 win against CBU, though he did so using a very flowchart-y offense in combination with CBU messing up his calcs. Ramolost could have a very good season, but I haven't seen enough to predict against Poek yet. Keep an eye on Ramolost, though, because he really didn't do much wrong in his debut game, which is always encouraging.

RU: roman vs Pepeduce - Both of these players have started off their seasons with a bang, but only one of them can be 2-0 after they play. roman, in classic roman fashion, played like a crack possessed demon as he beat the #1 ranked player in Ajna week 1. roman's team building influence then reached so far that both Lopunny Kicks and Meru used his team against each other for the RU Open final. Pepeduce, however, wielded a different kind of power. Pepeduce single handedly eliminated one of the teams in the first week of the tournament. The Serpents' season is over, as Pepeduce and his signature Ninjask managed to grind out a tough game against Nat. As of right now, Pepeduce is the most powerful player in Snake and I can't predict against him.

NU: CyberOdin vs Realistic Waters - CyberOdin actually played a solid first game of the season against bugzinator, but bugzinator had a good match-up and used his experience to ride said advantage home nicely. RW is also coming off a win and as mentioned last week I think quite highly of him. The main thing that concerns me here is RW's familiarity and creativity against the ADV main in CyberOdin. Fundamentally, Odin is probably the better overall player, but RW is going to bring a Pokemon or a set that's just not going to register with Odin. NU has completely transformed due to tier shifts and I trust RW to solve it (a lot) quicker than Odin.

PU: soulgazer vs TJ - soulgazer, to the surprise of many (many people, not PU player many's prediction specifically), is coming off a loss against Roseybear. Roseybear has had an excellent Grand Slam and PU Open showing, though we obviously have to 'throw pure Open results out the window because Open this year was just completely dominated by luck. Oh well, what can you do.' In any case, soulgazer is not just a veteran in this field, he is THE veteran in this field. TJ is getting his first chance to start in an official team tournament and lost to, and this is true, obii in his first game. The gap in tournament experience and playing level, as far as I can judge that so far, is too big to go against soulgazer. soulgazer does need to be wary of not getting caught in the team builder again, as Lapras caused way more problems than it should have last week, for example. A lesson learned for the notoriously nitpicky soulgazer, I'm sure.

LC: Kingler vs dcae - Kingler is a fascinating player in every way imaginable. Kingler, somehow, is the first player ever to win the same Grand Slam Open twice. I'm not kidding, you can go and check this. Kingler also started off last week with a loss while playing an arguably suboptimal endgame. Tragically, this is consistent with [Team Tournament] Kingler's showings the last year or two. One might even suggest that his 0-1 start is simply the first building block towards a trademark 2-7 finish. I personally really like Kingler, so I hope he wins more than two games this season, but whether he does is anything but certain. dcae is coming off a solid first game against Mazinger and quietly rode out an advantage pretty comfortably. Given that this is a team tournament game and not an individual tournament game, while also looking at how both players played in week 1, I'm going to have to go with dcae here.


OU: BIHI vs mncmt - Let me start these predictions off by applauding the Astrotias on their spectacular start of the season. BIHI was one of the Astrotias' ridiculous 9 (!) wins in week 1, but did so against one of the least proven players in the pool in High Impulse. mncmt beat the #4 overall pick, John W, following up his 4-0 WCoP and his run towards the OST final as well. Are you by any chance part Italian, mncmt? I love BIHI and think he'll be a great fit as a late pick on this team, but I definitely can't bold him against one of the hottest CG OU players right now.

OU: Raiza vs FMG - Now Raiza is for sure Italian, so that's a W for sure. I was actually browsing to the POCL spreadsheet yesterday and it revealed to me that Raiza is 0-4, while FMG is 3-1. To be fair, Raiza is playing BW in this tournament and FMG is a franchise superstar over on PO. As for Smogon's tournaments, the view is a little different. Raiza tap danced his way around Eeveeto's Magnezone beautifully, having to get many turns right and being up to the task confidently. Raiza is also, like all Italians, coming off a very good WCoP performance. FMG is a good player and he'll get his wins in this tournament, but after a slow start against ramboss' Trick Room team I couldn't possibly go against Raiza here.

OU: Tace vs Steve Angello - This is one of my favorite games of the week for sure. As said in my post last week, I'm a huge Tace fan. I think Tace is one of the hottest SS players right now and you'll probably find me bolding his name a whole lot throughout the tournament. Steve Angello on the other hand is a massive wild card. Not afraid to use any sort of crazy ass team in an official team tournament game and not afraid to make the big plays either. Steve has also quietly built up a winning streak himself since WCoP. Don't sleep on him. I think Steve is going to be a very good late pick for the Cobras that's going to win a handful of games for them, but Tace has been too solid in too large of a sample size by now.

OU: Finchinator vs 1 True Lycan - I'm going to assume Finch is mostly in charge of everything OU on the Astrotias and obviously that has all looked very much in order. Unsurprisingly, all four OU slots used solid teams and to Finch's delight they all played solid games, too. I really like this OU core and with bolding Finch's name I suppose I'm even predicting them to start the season 7-1. Finch looked solid against dice, albeit with a little bit of help from the Taipans' team builder troubles. Apparently Serene Grace Blissey was an accident on dice's team and it actually made the game a lot harder for him. Finch, however, did what he had to and secured a solid W. On the other side of things, we can officially state that The Baron has been struggling since his sizzling SPL streak. He was unable to lead his WCoP past the qualifiers and has now started off this Snake 0-1 on top of that. He could've won his game against Bro Kappa with a better Knock Off roll against Amoonguss, but God wants Italians to win in 2020, so risking the roll was an objective misplay. This could be a true highlight game if 1TL shows up. Looking forward to this game and predicting Finch to win it.

DOU: Paraplegic vs Qwello Lee - Two rookies and two winning starts. Congratulations to you both! Paraplegic was able to get a huge early advantage through Safety Goggles Tyranitar being able to Crunch the Oranguru despite Amoonguss using Rage Powder. A full Trick Room team is especially dependent on starting off that sequence well, which meant that Kiichikos pretty much lost on turn 1. Qwello Lee was part of the tag team effort that took care of the Ezrael + Nails braintrust product for the first week of Snake. Looking back, that team wasn't it and both qsns and Qwello Lee took full advantage. Qwello Lee's game vs. Nails was awkward for Nails to navigate, due to the Scizor completely shutting down the double offensive Grass-type core. Nails did, however, work his way back into the game and somehow almost won it. My gut says Paraplegic will win, but Qwello Lee is Italian. You guys know the rules.

UU: Accelgor vs Lilburr - This is a really tough one for me, as I consider both players to be fairly similar in terms of their background coming into this tournament. True, true UU mains that both come from the contributor side of things to eventually become tournament players, too. Accelgor is obviously a lot more experienced and broke through as a tournament player before Lilburr even created her Smogon account. I think Lilburr has been great and able to pick things up very quickly, though. And I'm not just saying that because she's the only one on the UU council that agrees with me sometimes... She had a solid debut last week and from what I see in the UU council chat she keeps up with metagame very actively and has overall good metagame takes. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Accelgor is 2-0 after this week, but after a shaky UUWC finals game from him and Lilburr's promising start, I'm going with Cobras UU player.

RU: Feliburn vs snaga - Farmerburn played out what will probably be his easiest game of the tournament with ease last week. Rotom-Cut, the best Pokemon in the tier, clicked Volt for free and Bewear and Adaptability Gardevoir took care of the rest. The Taipans' building concerns aside, Feliburn brought a good team and didn't mess up to coast home to victory. Good looks, nothing too fancy. snaga had the honor of deflowering Snake's most hyped rookie in odr last week and did so in style. Rindo Berry Golurk crashed odr right out of the game and that was that. snaga's team was very creative and very inspiring. That team building advantage might have had something to do with having an Italian manager. Probably, right? They both look primed to have good seasons if they keep this up, but I'll go with the true main for this one to get a grasp on the post-usage stats metagame first.

NU: GW vs Sjneider - Sjneider, respectfully, got a freebie after Kushalos got subbed out due to being late. I'll give you all a moment to recover from the shock you're enduring right now. Sjneider used a comfortable bulky balance and rode it out well enough. GW actually had an encouraging first showing against aim and was unfortunate at multiple points in the game to end up losing. I for one thought he looked quite good for a first timer. That said, Sjneider is one of the top dogs in this field and should know exactly how to take advantage of a first time starter.

PU: keppy vs Xiri - I thought at first that no matter who the Astrotias drafted, that we'd get a 6-3 or so from PU simply from HJAD's support. I'm not so sure anymore. keppy won last week, but did so off of dodging a Focus Blast that would've decided the game the other around, as well as a messy second half of the game all around. I'm not sold yet, but definitely believe in HJAD enough to bold keppy a number of times throughout the season. This week, however, keppy plays against Xiri. Xiri picked up right where he left off last season and continues to win PU games. Xiri seems to be the only consistent factor in the entire PU playerbase, so expect me to predict him to win a LOT. I'm very interested in this game, especially because of it being right after metagame changes, which to me feels like the week where Xiri could be most vulnerable.

LC: LilyAC vs Shrug - Honestly, I might be Lily's biggest fan on Smogon. Assuming no heinous time-outs or chokes happen, I am legit going to bold Lily all 9 weeks barring the Rattlers vs. Astrotias series. She's ahead of the field in the team builder and navigates LC's 7 spreadsheets to perfection. As a result of that, Osh, one of the best and most consistent LC players in recent times, was disposed of with relative ease in both LC Open and Snake last week. Shrug is coming off a rough game against Xizaaaaaaaa and I can't imagine many people will predict him to this one. Perhaps the underdog role could prove freeing for Shrug, but I'd be very surprised if Lily didn't win.


Just a small note to keep in mind during the following predictions: following Nat's loss against Pepeduce the Serpents are officially eliminated.

OU: watashi vs robjr - robjr's nuzlocke mode has been the stuff of legends and will forever go down in Smogon's history as one of the hottest stretches of Pokemon ever. I do think it'll end this week, though. watashi, one of Smogon's wittiest users so long as nobody gets to see it, is comfortably one of the best players in this tournament, in my opinion. I also believe that xray somewhat set up the 6-0 for robjr with the team that he brought. Don't get me wrong, robjr played an excellent and aggressive game, but that's where I think watashi will one-up him. So despite it being insane to go against the 24-0 run, I'm going to do it.

OU: Tamahome vs Sacri' - Alright so last week I predicted against Tama and he ended up picking apart Ewin comfortably.. This prediction isn't so much a slight against Tama, but more so a show of support towards Sacri' in CG OU. Sacri' woke up one day and decided to become an OU player and hasn't looked back since. Not only that, but he's not very quietly become one of the most consistent players in the community at that. He won't require a lot of team support and played a fine game week 1 against a strong opponent in Relous. I actually put money on that game as well, so thank you Sacri'.

OU: Star vs Storm Zone - As predicted, Star lost week 1. This week, however, he's up against a lower end of the pool player instead of against a fellow round 1 pick. Not only that, but Eo got quite lucky during multiple stretches of the game. Storm Zone is new to tournaments and is one of the typical ladder players looking to transition to tournaments type of players. Kind of like how robopoke was picked last year. There's high upside, endless metagame knowledge and the luxury of being a late pick. Team tournaments are a different beast, though. Star is very experienced and had a very good SPL as the #1 OU player on the Wolfpack. While he's struggled since losing that TonyFlygon support, I have very little doubt that he'll win this week.

OU: Malekith vs ima - I am widely known as one of the biggest Malekith fans of all time, but man he messed up his game last week for sure. If I want to post these predictions as unbiased as possible, then I have to go with ima here. Malekith's very consistent current gen results the last couple of yours can't be ignored or forgotten, though. Absurd OST consistency, Smogon Tour playoffs and he's always kept up with the tier in the team builder, too. I am counting on Malekith to win my faith back, but much like how his Excadrill met its demise, he's hard-pressed to win this game. ima played a good game himself and is as motivated as anyone to put up as good of a performance as in last year's Snake. He went 8-3 last year, for those interested.

DOU: DLT JRL BELL vs Memoric - I just realized there aren't any Italians starting in this series. No wonder it's been so challenging to write these. In any case, the most enigmatic and hyped up DOU player is getting his second chance to get a W on 'The Sheet'. JRL ran into an Iron Defense Corviknight he just couldn't overcome last week. Well, he might have been able to if his Primarina connected with Hydro Pump.. but it didn't. Memoric started off his tournament with a win, which must have been a relief after his SPL. Memoric took full advantage of a nervy starting debut from Frania and used his experience well. Memoric continuing his run this week wouldn't at all shock me, as he seems to have found his stride, but I have to believe in JRL at least one more week before I stop bolding him.

UU: vivalospride vs SoulWind - Well. Similarly to Poek, SoulWind took full advantage of his opponent letting slip his lead. You can't mess up anywhere against players like this and I fear viv will at one point or another. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Serpents prepare Webs, Screens, Sun or some other sort of flowchart-y offense this week, in order to minimilize the odds of that happening. Assuming SoulWind gets a workable match-up, he should win.

RU: Nat vs atomicllamas - After losing the season deciding game against Pepeduce, Nat's confidence is at a low once more. Thankfully, with the season already over this series and Nat's own game don't matter anymore, other than for Nat's personal record. Facing Nat is atomicllamas, who didn't have the reintroduction to team tournaments he would've liked. The Poltergeist oversight aside, llamas has been playing a lot lately and shouldn't be considered a pushover. I know this next bit isn't a given whatsoever, but assuming Nat can control her tilt I do believe she's the better RU player. Whether she'll give it her all post elimination remains to be seen, especially since atomicllamas still has everything to play for. If Nat loses this one, we may not see her again this season, or ever. A huge game for RU fans for sure.

NU: Jrdn vs elodin - This is very exciting. elodin brought a Water-type and clicked Hydro Pump until he won last week. Well, that's not entirely true. elodin also nearly threw the whole game by only Flame Charging once instead of twice with his Silvally, which meant he had to win a speedtie. It was elodin's first game back since his time away from tournaments, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. Jrdn played a solid game, but much like elodin's opponent, struggled with the power of special attacking Water-types. Take notes, NU players? Don't worry Jrdn, we'll mark down your challenging match-up as a result of the infamous rozes support. In fact, said support is the differentiating factor for me here. elodin to win this week.

PU: obii vs Kink - Now, before the torches are coming out, I'm aware that obii won and that Kink lost last week. Hell, Kink even lost to a substitute with next to no PU experience at that. That said, Kink has won a lot in lower tiers in the last few years. I need a larger sample size on both obii as a winning player this Snake and Kink as a losing one before changing my mind on this game. obii, to his credit, played a solid game. obii also played without a Fighting-type resistance, which is a little concerning considering how good offensive Throh sets are in PU. TJ didn't bring one of those, though, so whatever. If obii wins again this week, then we have to just accept that obii can genuinely do well this season as a PU starter. It'll take some time to adjust for us all, but he truly would be able to. Until that happens I'm gonna ride with Kink, though.

LC: Mazinger vs Ninjadog - It was nice seeing Mazinger return to team tournaments, given his reputation as being one of the great lower tier players in SPL history. However, his return was a bit questionable as there were some objective misplays in his game that might've cost him the win. Ninjadog, an LC mainstay, played a very solid first game against a nervy and debuting Wail Wailord, overcoming a tricky match-up against Acrobatics Mienfoo nicely. To me, Ninjadog seems like the best of the rest after the big 3 right now and if he keeps playing solid games I'll probably bold him a lot. Mazinger could definitely improve as he shakes the rust as he goes on, especially with the notorious starmaster support, but the Serpents weren't quite there yet in LC last week.


OU: Rexus vs ZDen - Rexus didn't play in the first week, as he subbed out after the week's result was already decided by Sunday night. However, we've seen plenty of Rexus during this summer's WCoP, so we're not going into this prediction without any data. ZDen lost to ima last week, but definitely didn't look awful or anything like that. I wasn't impressed to the point where I'll anticipate a victory against [Team Italy] Rexus, though. We've been over this. Tricking support on top of that. Book it.

OU: ramboss vs xray - xray got humbled last week by the nuzlocke ninja himself, but I'm confident he'll bounce back immediately this week. xray is the leadership figure of the Mambas and will have to lead by example if their team wants to have any chance at making the playoffs. xray has also had a great year in this tier, so I have to believe he'll bounce back right away. He's going to have to. ramboss on the other hand is someone I've always liked. I talked about it in last week's predictions and I was barely able to beat him in a very close game in last year's Snake, too. ramboss started off the season with a Trick Room team victory against FMG and very well might beat xray here as well. I won't go for the upset quite yet, though, especially given the do or die scenario the Mambas already find themselves in.

OU: BK vs Gefährlicher Random - This one is very exciting for sure. I'm a big fan of both players. The Dangerous Random was picked too early in the draft, in my opinion, which I suppose was consistent with the Mambas' (what I believe to be) inability to value their picks properly. I completely understand why xray considered him a must get, though. I know him to be very active, very serious about prep and a solid player. He's good for sure and is coming off a solid week 1 win using the nasty ladder team against Storm Zone. Speaking of being nasty on the ladder... Bro rages in Italian Kappa is off to a good start, too. I trust BK to beat TDR this week, mostly due to the fact that BK is very experienced, Italian and has Tricking guiding him towards a good match-up, I'm sure. I highly doubt we'll see another ladder team from TDR, as that is a surefire way to lose against the Italians. One of my favorite games of the week for sure.

OU: John W vs Relous - John W enjoys SS OU so much right now that he, just for fun, laddered up another alt at the end of cycle 4 despite already having qualified for playoffs in a previous cycle. Could never be me. This enthusiasm, however, can only be admired. Relous is a self proclaimed good player, but below average builder. He requires and depends on team support for him to be successful. The Mambas haven't impressed on that front at all yet and are seriously outmatched in that department this week, by the looks of it at least. I think Relous is a good player and I even bid a bunch of money on him in last year's SPL auction, but John W's familiarity, motivation, recent success and Italian support makes me lean towards him this week. Frankly, the only thing that'll get me to change my mind about the Mambas OU core is a LOT of "shoutouts Will of Fire for the team" win posts. The magic doesn't seem to be there yet, though.

DOU: Nails vs Frania - Nails, as mentioned before, was part of the one-two punch of using a suboptimal team alongside Ezrael into having to play a really hard game. Nails somehow almost won, which was impressive, but ultimately had to go through too many hoops to close it out. Nails, to me, is the clear #2 in the field when it comes to playing ability and experience on the big stage. If Nails brings a good team, then I think he beats the #1 valued DOU player of 2020. Man, I really do feel bad for Frania. He was picked waaaaaaay too early, which only adds more pressure to his first season as a starter in DOU. Last week was a disastrous debut featuring a few mistakes including a misclick. Getting Nails as your second opponent doesn't make it any easier to get a rhythm going on top of that. I'm fearing a tough season for Frania, but I'll be rooting for him to do well.

UU: Luigi vs Sabella - Both of these guys are coming off of a rough first week. Luigi tragically set up his own demise by handing the teapot a Choice Scarf, only to subsequently get swept by Shadow Ball. Sabella enjoyed a fantastic start and early advantage against SoulWind, but fumbled the bag when push came to shove. I'm going with Sabella here, because I believe he'll work harder to bounce back from the 0-1 start. He'll prepare a good team, he'll test it thoroughly and I think he'll be more cautious during the end game. Luigi will probably load up some offense or something. As of right now I think Luigi is the more solid player, given Sabella's end game last week, but I have a feeling he'll be very prepared to balance his record.

RU: odr vs Charmflash - Gosh dang it, I'm already deviating from my strategy. Ah well, it had to be done. odr got humbled last week by snaga's tech heavy team as his Golurk literally threw its weight around. Can't be too mad at that, as that was just a nice tech hitting exactly what it was meant to target. Fair enough. odr is still a super consistent RU performer and now that he popped his Cheri Berry I think he'll get into the swing of things soon enough, specifically this week. Charmflash is coming off a win, which was great for me as I actually put money on that game. With that out of the way I am ready for him to start losing, though. He was given a freebie by llamas last week, but his opposition this week should give him a much harder time. As said before, I do think Charmflash will put up good numbers this tournament, though I'm going with odr to get a win on the board here.

NU: Kushalos vs Ho3nConfirm3d - Dire. I told you guys this might happen, too. Try not to get tournament banned, Bobby Dagen.. :( In any case, the Mambas did do a good job of drafting a promising NU back-up player, so there is that. Ho3n had a solid NUPL and knows his way around the tier without a doubt. That, however, isn't enough for me to bold his name against the chef. Assuming the chef shows up for the scheduled time, obviously. Let's assume he does for the sake of the prediction. The chef is the best and perhaps the only consistent NU player, alongside RW, in the last few years between SPL and Snake. He may be washed, he may not care that much anymore, but he's still lower tier royalty. I'll predict against him if I see him actively perform poorly, but until we get to that point he'll be favored against essentially anyone. Tricking, as mentioned last week, is no stranger to NU either, so he'll be supported on that front, too.

PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs Ktütverde - I'm not gonna lie, I didn't really care enough about all the scheduling problems that were going on with the Mambas last week to have a verdict on who was in the right or who was in the wrong. As always, though, being honorable in team tournaments got punished as King PU lost to the Mambas substitute player, eifo. eifo once quit on our RUWC team, btw. Just a free little bit of slander for you guys. King Tut is the best true PU mainer that PU has to offer, so we're gonna go with him this week. He had a decent first showing in last year's Snake, so I assume he'll do alright in this year's tournament as well. As mentioned last week, he was a leadership figure in his team's recent PUPL victory, too. Ham Margera ran into Xiri last week and got out-muscled pretty badly. Xiri was way more aggressive and applied constant pressure with his Body Press Appletun. I would like to see the Hamster, who actually used the hamster Pokemon, Morpeko, last week, switch to Hangry Mode. Gotta be more aggressive to win this one.

LC: Xizaaa vs Wail Wailord - Xizaaaaaaaaaaaa is coming off a very solid debut performance against Shrug. Good looks. Cool team, too. Excellent use of DD Onix. Wail Wailord had a much less successful debut game himself, which is why I'm leaning towards Xizaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa for now. Wail Wailord did win a LOT of games in LCPL, so I'm not giving up on him yet. Definitely leaning towards Xizaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa based on what we've seen in the first week, though.


GGs Bushmasters, gl hf Taipans this week and thank you all for the positive feedback on the predictions last week!

:psyglad:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 0)

Top