Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 2

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OU: Bloody alfa vs Jytcampbell - Bloody alfa fell short week 1, but he did make some impressive plays trying to claw back in to the game. Jyt won, on the other hand, but he did get fortunate and I think he still has some improvements to make overall. I rate both of these guys as good players who are capable of winning in the field, but Bloody alfa has had a much better 2020, thriving in WCOP and STour. Jyt has been more quiet and is yet to have a big, breakout tournament. I will go with the better track record here, but it should be tight.

OU: Santu vs Eo Ut Mortus - Both players had strong wins in week 1. I think that I have to favor Santu on the virtue of him being Italian; these guys seem to be winning every single game I see them in honestly. Eo is doing a great job finding structures that work for him lately, be it during OLT or week 1. Eo knows what he needs to do to achieve consistent results and that alone puts him in the top portion of this field. However, Santu has been doing well all year long. He stood out during SPL, he stood out during WCOP, and there is little reason to believe he will not do the same here. I think that Santu is also challenging to prepare for, much like other Italians. He does not make many mistakes in-game and his teams are strong + he has great support, so I am going to give him a small edge here.

OU: frisoeva vs Ewin - Ewin is struggling. He has been all over the place since the end of WCOP R1, but none of those places seem to be in the thread making "won, gg" posts. I find this unfortunate as the potential is there; Ewin had a great showing early in WCOP and I know he is capable of replicating it. frisoeva, on the contrary, is pretty consistent. He always puts up decent records, with the recent WCOP being the lone exception. Perhaps his SS is a few steps behind his SM, but I think friso will get it together and even out his record here. Ewin's been trying to do too much with his teams and prep and I feel like this is due to a lack of confidence in his ability to pull triggers and outmaneuver the opponent. If he can get this together, good things will come eventually. If not, expect a clear frisoeva victory.

OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Garay oak - I think Lopunny Kicks is the best player in this field aside from lax and maybe FLCL right now. Lopunny Kicks is winning games handily whenever I see him play. His week 1 game against Fear was perhaps assisted by some of Fear's plays being suboptimal due to lack of metagame knowledge, but he still won decisively. I will say that one concern about Lopunny Kicks is that he does not have much of a track record winning with offensive teams, making him a bit more of a one-dimensional player of bulky teams in the current metagame. But I am confident in his ability to deviate among bulky structures or even find a way to break out a more hard-hitting balanced or bulky-offensive team in the near future. Garay oak is a good player, but I think FLCL into Lopunny Kicks is a hard draw for a player who is known for lower tier and Ubers performances. I think he will find some wins once he gets a break with the opponents, but that clearly is not this week.

DOU: qsns vs umbreon098 - Both won during week 1, but qsns upset Ezrael and has a lot more official experience. I think you will see qsns and umbreon098 finish with positive records, but I give the edge to qsns here.

UU: Ramolost vs Poek - Poek looked good week 1. He did exactly what he needed to and played a solid end-game to cap things off, proving he is not too rusty after taking a break. Ramolost also won, upsetting CBU in what was both of their first SSD games. I think he may be an underrated player, but it was still just a single win with HO. I do not want to belittle this victory, but I trust Poek's track record and gameplanning abilities quite a bit more at this point and will side with him. Perhaps the support Ramolost has will go a long way in preparing, but if not then it could be a struggle.

RU: roman vs Pepeduce - roman looked solid week 1. I was impressed by his victory overall and it seems like he picked off where he left off last Snake, which is a great sign. Pepeduce also upset one of the top players, defeating Nat in style. That game was considered a strong game, but there were still some weird plays all around. I think roman is less likely to bring a team with holes and more likely to adapt to the playstyle of his opponents whereas Pepeduce is more likely to take risks that pay off, but it also could backfire. Perhaps it is just my personal playstyle dictating my preference for solid metagamers who try to enhance norms and cover all of the possible threats over recurring risk-takers and innovative thinkers, but I side with roman here.

NU: CyberOdin✝ vs Realistic Waters - Realistic Waters won his first game, with the help of some luck, and played just fine. He continues to impress me with his creativity and risk taking abilities. CyberOdin is still adjusting to NU and now the tier is going to take a completely new look. We already know how well Realistic Waters can adapt his play and building, but can Odin match him in this regard? I do not know and I am not sure I can confidently say he can do this while outperforming RW, so I side with RW.

PU: soulgazer vs TJ - soulgazer is not going to go negative in this PU field. He had a rough debut against an impressive opponent, but this will be his chance to even things out. TJ lost his first game against obii, but he did not make a ton of mistakes either. I think TJ's issue is just being overwhelmed by stronger and more proven players. It is a hard learning curve to conquer and it may take him some weeks to do so. soulgazer will get it together, adapt as well as he always has, and win handily here.

LC: Kingler vs dcae - Not too sure who takes this one.

informative!
thanks finchinator
 
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