Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 1

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Op contacted, GOOOOOOO TEAM WE CAN THIS !!!!!
same

some rudimentary predicts btw
SS LC: LilyAC vs Osh - after losing lc open lily will be motivated to get a win here
SS LC: Mazinger vs dcae - i honestly don't know, but i'm guessing it could go either way and this is a nice game for ginku to start out
SS LC: Xizaaa vs Shrug - meh fuck it, i'll predict the upset. he can both prep and play pretty well, though obviously the same goes for shrug
SS LC: Wail Wailord vs Ninjadog - ninja's solid and this is wail's first game
 

false

maybe this is heaven
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i would like to do predictions each week & see how i go, but i don't know how feasible it will be going forward because my keyboard is broken and typing out predictions on phone is ass :(
Rumble Hall Rattlers (6) vs (4) Berry Forest Bushmasters

SS OU: Kebab mlml vs Santu
SS OU: Fear vs Lopunny Kicks
SS OU: lax vs Bloody alfa
SS OU: Samqian vs frisoeva
SS DOU: Ezrael vs qsns
SS UU: CBU vs Ramolost
SS RU: Ajna vs roman
SS NU: bugzinator vs CyberOdin
SS PU: Roseybear vs soulgazer
SS LC: Serene Grace vs Kingler - Serene has waited out his kill cooldown, he's sitting in the vent in electrical; Kingler has just walked in. This all comes down to whether Serene will be quick enough to hop out, snap his neck, and then quickly vent to medbay without being seen. If hesitates for even a moment, he will surely be caught. good luck!

Ambrette Astrotias (4) vs (6) Terminus Taipans

SS OU: Tace vs le LLiolae
SS OU: Raiza vs Eeveeto
SS OU: BIHI vs High Impulse
SS OU: Finchinator vs dice - Finch leaves spawn after doing the key task, and heads straight to the weather node maze task. It's a calculated decision to get it out of the way early, because he's playing on phone and he knows it'll take him a short while to complete. Suddenly the lights go out, but isn't a big problem, as finch finishes his task. He takes a step towards electrical, when someone walks into his field of view. It's dice, coming from laboratory. dice quickly shoots Finch in the head and continues running towards electrical, where he meets up with 3 other players to fix the lights. As they all run out together, they come across the body and dice reports it.
"I was together with 3 people in electrical, the body was on the weather node near lab"
Finch puts his head into his hands as everyone skips vote and dice survives round 1.
SS DOU: Paraplegic vs Kiichikos
SS UU: Accelgor vs Adaam
SS RU: Feliburn vs Void
SS NU: GW vs aim
SS PU: keppy vs tlenit1
SS LC: LilyAC vs Osh


Shinto Ruin Serpents (3) vs (7) Sky Tower Lindworms

SS OU: Star vs Eo Ut Mortus
SS OU: watashi vs Garay oak
SS OU: Tamahome vs Ewin
SS OU: Malekith vs Jytcampbell
SS DOU: DLT JRL BELL vs umbreon098
SS UU: vivalospride vs Poek
SS RU: Nat vs Pepeduce
SS NU: Jrdn vs Realistic Waters
SS PU: obii vs TJ - Even though I ranked tj lower than obii on my prs, I think he'll take this matchup. To me this game for obii will be like getting impostor on your first time playing. Someone will catch obii walking away from the body, but he'll manage to avoid the initial accusation, saying something like "i don't really know what to do just yet so I was just walking around, I didn't see it"
And right when it seems like obii has managed to get away, tj will ask "hey obii what tasks did you do this round"
"so I swiped my card in admin"
but that's all it'll take to out him; because this is map 2 (Mira HQ) there is no card swipe task on this map. nervous laughter sounds in the chat as obii hears the dings of people casting their votes. "obii was An Impostor. 1 Impostor remains."
SS LC: Mazinger vs dcae


Lake of Rage Leviathans (4) vs (6) Celadon City Cobras

SS OU: ramboss vs FMG
SS OU: Rexus vs Steve Angello
SS OU: John W vs mncmt
SS OU: BK vs 1 True Lycan
SS DOU: Nails vs Qwello Lee
SS UU: Luigi vs Lilburr
SS RU: odr vs snaga - It's 1v3, the other impostor has been voted out, but snaga has managed to avoid suspicion. The group is running together to do tasks, there's only a couple left. All of a sudden, the lights go out, and snaga sneaks to the back of the group. He quickly kills the player closest to him and self reports the body.
"I just saw odr kill him right in front of me"
"The lights were out, I couldn't even see you, how could you see me, I didn't even see a body?" odr replies
"Trust me, it's definitely not me, I would've killed you in reactor during round 2 if it was me, remember? we were alone for like 2 minutes. vote odr and we win, vote me and we lose"
odr knows it's not him, but he has nothing else to say as the votes come in "odr was not An Impostor. 1 Impostor remains. Defeat"
SS NU: Kushalos vs Sjneider
SS PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs Xiri
SS LC: Xizaaa vs Shrug


Black City Mambas (5) vs (5) Lanakila Nagas

SS OU: Gefährlicher Random vs Storm Zone
SS OU: ZDen vs ima
SS OU: Relous vs Sacri'
SS OU: xray vs robjr
SS DOU: Frania vs Memoric
SS UU: Sabella vs SoulWind
SS RU: Charmflash vs atomicllamas
SS NU: Bobby Dagen vs elodin
SS PU: Ktütverde vs Kink
SS LC: Wail Wailord vs Ninjadog - Ninjadog runs quickly to navigation off spawn, kills the player doing wiring and then runs through shields towards reactor. Wailord walks into nav and reports the body.
"uhh body in nav near the wiring"
"That was quick' says ninjadog, "I was over in lower engine, elodin can vouch for me; who was on the right side?"
Silence follows as a wailord's stomach starts to tie itself into a knot.
"This has to be a self report then, if nobody else was on that side of the ship" asserts Ninjadog.
"Yea I'm ok voting wailord"
The votes come in and ninjadog has effectively taken 2 down for free.
 

John W

Banned deucer.
Predictions looked dry so I'll do a quick one with bolded names and maybe a description for cool ou games

Rumble Hall Rattlers (5) vs (5) Berry Forest Bushmasters

SS OU: Kebab mlml vs Santu - This game is going to be interesting, looking forward to the team choices of both players
SS OU: Fear vs Lopunny Kicks
SS OU: lax vs Bloody alfa - Alfa looked good during world cup so this one could easily go either way if he can continue the dominance he showed in his previous games
SS OU: Samqian vs frisoeva
SS DOU: Ezrael vs qsns
SS UU: CBU vs Ramolost
SS RU: Ajna vs roman
SS NU: bugzinator vs CyberOdin
SS PU: Roseybear vs soulgazer
SS LC: Serene Grace vs Kingler

Ambrette Astrotias (6) vs (4) Terminus Taipans

SS OU: Tace vs le LLiolae - I think Tace will pick a reliable team and get a decent enough MU where he can just safely pilot it to a win
SS OU: Raiza vs Eeveeto - Depends on if we get flygon + mamoswine eeveeto or the world cup one where he actually looked really solid. Always interesting to see what he brings.
SS OU: BIHI vs High Impulse
SS OU: Finchinator vs dice - Finch should def be favored for this game since dice doesn't really play this tier but dice's team selections seem to get him a good enough mu most of the times and hes capable of playing well so honestly could go either way. Another hype OU game and def the highlight of this series.
SS DOU: Paraplegic vs Kiichikos
SS UU: Accelgor vs Adaam
SS RU: Feliburn vs Void
SS NU: GW vs aim
SS PU: keppy vs tlenit1
SS LC: LilyAC vs Osh


Shinto Ruin Serpents (3) vs (7) Sky Tower Lindworms

SS OU: Star vs Eo Ut Mortus - Eo makes some nasty teams and I like watching him play with those unconventional techs so I think he'll take this one. Close game tho
SS OU: watashi vs Garay oak
SS OU: Tamahome vs Ewin - I tend to favor the player who has played the tier more but idk this is pretty much a coinflip
SS OU: Malekith vs Jytcampbell
SS DOU: DLT JRL BELL vs umbreon098
SS UU: vivalospride vs Poek
SS RU: Nat vs Pepeduce
SS NU: Jrdn vs Realistic Waters
SS PU: obii vs TJ
SS LC: Mazinger vs dcae

Black City Mambas (5) vs (5) Lanakila Nagas

SS OU: Gefährlicher Random vs Storm Zone - This is probably one of my favorite games of the week. I like watching random play since his team choices are good and he pilots them well too but storm zone pretty much dominates the gen 8 ou ladder with his unlimited supply of teams. Curious if storm zone sticks with his offensive approach or if he shifts to more bulky team choices.
SS OU: ZDen vs ima
SS OU: Relous vs Sacri'
SS OU: xray vs robjr - another hype game but I think xray will take this in the builder
SS DOU: Frania vs Memoric
SS UU: Sabella vs SoulWind
SS RU: Charmflash vs atomicllamas
SS NU: Bobby Dagen vs elodin
SS PU: Ktütverde vs Kink
SS LC: Wail Wailord vs Ninjadog
 

Finchinator

no longer Harry’s house
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OU & NU Leader
The pre-draft prediction form received 51 responses. The results are as follows:

Who will go first overall?

7 people got this correct (Bouff, Vulpix03, bugzinator, FMG, KingKdot, Finchinator, and Mannat) by guessing lax! 24 people predicted SoulWind to go first, which was by far the most common answer. 10 people predicted Finchinator would go first overall, including "fuck finch" and "F!nchinator".

Who will be the first OU starter picked?

7 people got this correct (Bouff, Vulpix03, FMG, KingKdot, Finchinator, Mannat, and Djokra), too -- it was also lax! 21 people predicted Finchinator to go first, which was by far the most common answer. Four people predicted ABR and two people predicted Empo, which was a very bold strategy considering they did not sign-up.

Who will be the first UU starter picked?

A whopping 22 people got this correct (Bouff, starry blanket, Boat, Haru, Golden009, Jrdn, Kiichikos, Djokra, KingKdot, Ruft, Sensei Axew, Ajna, Finchinator, Jordy, Eternal Spirit, F!nchinator, Wanony, Alpha Rabbit, atomicllamas, Mishimono, Mannat, and The "Who Asked" Guy) with SoulWind. 11 people guessed Adaam, who received the next most guesses.

Who will be the first RU starter picked?

Somehow Ajna fell all the way to round three, so despite getting the vast majority of guesses cast, he was not the correct answer. Instead, odr was correct, who only 4 people correctly selected (Jrdn, Eternal Spirit, Mishimono, and The "Who Asked" Guy).

Who will be the first NU starter picked?

An impressive 17 people got this correct (Bouff, Vulpix03, starry blanket, Boat (sailing apparatus), Jrdn, Djokra, KingKdot, FMG, Ruft, Finchinator, lighthouses, Ampha, Jordy, kjdaas, Alpha Rabbit, atomicllamas, and Mannat) with Sjneider. Between Finchinator, Garay oak, and lax, more people playing OU received votes than actual players in the NU pool!

Who will be the first PU starter picked?

10 people got this correct (Jrdn, KingKdot, Ruft, Ajna, Finchinator, 1 True Lycan, Eternal Spirit, Mishimono, tlenit1, and Dflo) with Ktutverde. A whopping 20 people picked soulgazer and thankfully none of them typed "sg" or typo'd his name, so this was the quickest control+f of my entire life.

Who will be the first DOU starter picked?

Nobody picked Frania besides the Mambas, so congratulations to them! The good news is that Frania is the best BW OU playing DOU starter in SSD history in all likelihood. The bad news is that 34 people picked Ezrael and they all came up emptyhanded.

Who will be the first LC starter picked?

Seems like this one was easier than most as a whole 26 people got this correct (Vulpix03, Haru, Jrdn, Nat, Kiichikos, Djokra, FMG, KingKdot, Ruft, Ajna, Eo Ut Mortus, Finchinator, Ampha, Jordy, Eternal Spirit, zS, HSOWA, Wanony, Alpha Rabbit, atomicllamas, Mishimono, Mannat, jacob, tlenit1, Dflo, and The "Who Asked" Guy) with Osh. A decent amount of people picked LilyAC, which is fair as she went soon thereafter, but one person decided that even LilyAC was too basic of a pick and instead decided to pick UU player Lilburr, which is quite the impressive pick.

Who will be the infamous pick #140?

It seems nobody was able to get Mr. Irrelevant correct this time around. However, obii, Mannat, dogknees, PinkDragonTamer, Finchinator, Expulso, Vaboh, and Coconut each received multiple votes for this category, which easily had the most diverse group of responses.

Which WCOP team will have the most representation in SSD4?
West - 7
India - 1
Greece - 3
Italy - 5
UK - 6
South - 6
Midwest - 4
Northeast - 5
France - 2
Germany - 6
Canada - 4
Brazil - 7
Spain - 4
Latin America - 4
Oceania - 2
Europe - 5
Belgium - 1
Asia - 1

US West and Brazil won as both teams has 7 players drafted. Honorable mention to the United Kingdom (who I will count as a team despite not making the tournament), US South, and Germany who came close with 6 players drafted. Africa, Austria, China, and Argentina sadly did not have any players picked.

Ajna, Dflo, and jacob are the only three people who correctly guessed US West. Nat, Confide, and Spl4sh are the only three people who correctly guessed Brazil. Congratulations to those six! Unsurprisingly, 23 people guessed the reigning WCOP champions, Italy.

How many trades will occur on the day of the auction?

Another tough question as only three people (Eo Ut Mortus, Finchinator, and Serene Grace) correctly guessed that only one trade would occur on the day of the auction. None happened during the auction itself and then one happened in the hours following it concluding. I considered also giving credit to people who guessed 0 trades because the trade happened after midnight in Europe, but the auction's scheduled time was posted in EST, so we're sticking with one. Best timezone stays best timezone.

Which round will GSC superstar Fear be taken in?

Five people (Boat (sailing apparatus), Eo Ut Mortus, Finchinator, Drud, and atomicllamas) all correctly guessed that he would be taken in round 9. Note that numerous people responded saying that they did not know who fear is, which is a major :pikuh: moment.

Which round will VGC standout Nails be taken in?

An impressive 15 people (Vulpix03, starry blanket, bugzinator, Haru, Kiichikos, Nat, KingKdot, Finchinator, Confide, 1 True Lycan, Jordy, HSOWA, Wanony, Mishimono, and jacob) all correctly guessed that he would be taken in round 3.

Which round will LC player King"2-7"ler be taken in?

Drud is the only person to correctly guess round 13. Ampha guessed "round 13/14/undrafted" and I will give him a mention because he technically got it, but guessing three different outcomes was not within the rules, so RIP. Big congratulations to Drud for being the only person to predict this outcome and impressive drafting by the Bushmasters to get a player ranked in the middle of the LC PR with a round 13 pick, which could turn out to be a steal if Kingler managers to win more than 2 games this year.

Which round will UU Open semi-finalist Luigi be taken in?

Only 2 people (Alpha Rabbit and Mannat) correctly guessed that he would be taken in round 10. Lots of people who responded predicted the Smogon Tour champion and UU Open semi-finalist to get picked earlier in the draft, so the Leviathans may have a steal in Luigi as their round 10 pick.

Which round will RU veteran Nat be taken in?

8 people (Boat (sailing apparatus), Jrdn, Nat herself, Spl4sh, Eternal Spirit, kjdaas, Serene Grace, and Mannat) correctly guessed that she would be taken in round 5. Lots of people thought that she would be taken in the round 2-4 range, so perhaps the Serpents got a steal of their own by taking Nat in the fifth round.

Which round will NU playing YouTube sensation aim be taken in?

9 people (Bouff, Vulpix03, avarice, Djokra, KingKdot, 1 True Lycan, Jordy, Eternal Spirit, and Wanony) correctly guessed that he would be taken in round 4. Lots of people seemed to be close, picking round 3, 5, and 6 often as well. These nine participants pinpointed it perfectly, however.

Which round will SSD3 winning PU player Xiri be taken in?

Only two people (KingKdot and jacob) correctly guessed that he would be taken in round 6. Lots of people seemed to think Xiri would go in the early rounds, with a combined twenty-four guesses split between rounds 2-4, so perhaps the Cobras got Xiri at a great value in round 6.

In a tie for first place, both Finchinator and KingKdot got 9 correct.

In third place, Mannat got 7 correct.
In a tie for fourth place, Jrdn and Eternal Spirit got 6 correct.
In a tie for sixth place, Bouff, Vulpix03, Djokra, Jordy, and Mishimono got 5 correct.

Congrats to KingKdot, Mannat, Jrdn, Eternal Spirit, Bouff, Vulpix03, Djokra, Jordy, and Mishimono. As for me, I will probably make a fool out of myself losing to the ape in my incoming prediction post, so I will hold the congratulations for the time being :bloblul:
 

IPF

sundown
is a Tiering Contributor
Figured I'd do some OU predicts because I'm bored, won't comment on lower tiers because my knowledge of them is limited.

SS OU: Kebab mlml vs Santu - Should be a tight game, both players are coming off impressive WCoP campaigns but I think Santu has been really good lately so I favour him here
SS OU: Fear vs Lopunny Kicks - Excited to see GSC legend Fear try current gen OU but running into Punny week 1 seems pretty dire, would be surprised to see him take this one
SS OU: lax vs Bloody alfa - Tough one to call, lax is obviously the more accomplished player with a long stretch of great results, but alfa coming off a great Smogon Tour run and an outstanding WCoP makes this difficult, I favour lax here but really could go either way
SS OU: Samqian vs frisoeva - Besides his issues with the OLT ladder, I think Samqian is really solid and was a standout in an otherwise forgettable South campaign

SS OU: Tace vs le LLiolae - Tace has been extremely good lately, solid WCoP and qualifying cycle 1 of OLT so I definitely favour him here, interested to see how LLL goes considering his poor SPL outing and his subsequent decision to join team Belgium in WCoP
SS OU: Raiza vs Eeveeto - Should be a great game if Eeveeto doesn't bring the crackhead shit he's gained a reputation for, both these players went 5-1 in world cup, but I favour the Italians wherever possible
SS OU: BIHI vs High Impulse - I'm not completely sold on Impulse in OU and think BIHI is really solid, but he's coming off a UU Open win so I'll favour the hot hand
SS OU: Finchinator vs dice - Will probably regret this one but I can see dice bringing some creative build that will catch Finch out and take home the win, good game either way

SS OU: Star vs Eo Ut Mortus - Really rough world cup for Star, whereas Eo has shown his proficiency in the meta with his OLT qualification using some pretty niche picks and generally going against the grain, gonna favour recent form here
SS OU: watashi vs Garay oak - watashi has been on fire, can't see him losing this one
SS OU: Tamahome vs Ewin - Tama leads the sheet on all time wins which is nuts, and I generally consider him the better player here whereas ewin has been getting baited by trolls on the ladder en route to qualifying with a GXE of like 10. However, I do think he'll win this because of his familiarity with the meta and Tama's dislike of it
SS OU: Malekith vs Jytcampbell - Haven't seen Kith play SS at all and I think I rate Jyt higher than most people so I'll predict him to take this one

SS OU: ramboss vs FMG - I'll favour the player who's been more relevant in the community recently, however Tricking support goes a long way so I could easily be wrong here
SS OU: Rexus vs Steve Angello - Never predict against an Italian. For real though, Steve Angello showed he's still got it in world cup so it's not clear cut, but I do favour Rexus with Tricking support
SS OU: John W vs mncmt - Think John is one of, if not the best SS OU right now, at least in this pool of players. mncmt has been great too after a solid world cup and OST finals appearance but I find it hard to predict against John at the moment
SS OU: BK vs 1 True Lycan - Both are great players and could really go either way, but as I said earlier, predicting against an Italian is just a mistake right now

SS OU: Gefährlicher Random vs Storm Zone - Fire matchup, SZ has played like 5000 games on ladder in the last month and I'm really excited to see him get his first crack at an official team tour, however this game could very well be won or lost in the builder
SS OU: ZDen vs ima - 8-3 in snake
SS OU: Relous vs Sacri' - I rate both players highly, Relous had a better world cup but Sacri looked comfortable in his OLT qualification so I'll favour him
SS OU: xray vs robjr - rob was dominant in WCoP but xray is a top SS player, can't predict against him here

Shoutouts the Asiancy, rooting for all of you lot. Good luck to everyone!
 

Sjneider

swag to the yolo
is a Tiering Contributor
Doing IN DEPTH predicts for games I think are fun and will be close.

Also just wanna add that the whole "x will win bc italian!" is like kinda dumb lol. like yes they stomped wcop but thats bc of their efforts as a collective. no shade to my italians whatsoever as u know i am #filogang but if u drafted an italian and expect them to 9-0, well u might be in for a little surprise lol.

SS OU: lax vs Bloody alfa: bloody alfa has really been on the rise, with a great Smogon Tour run and impressive showings in WCOP. However, he is facing one of the best players in lax who WILL punish passivity that I've seen every now and then from alfa. Compared to lax, alfa still lacks (haha) the experience of playing big name players and the jitters may scare him from pulling the trigger when he needs to in order to steal this one from lax.

SS OU: fear vs Lopunny Kicks: a really interesting mu between a seasoned gsc vet and one of Team Italy's OU stars. ive seen ppl draw a lot of comparisons between ss and gsc in the sense that the games are longer, fat mons etc. but the fact still remains that its a completely different generation with new mons, items, mechanics that definitely need a lot of getting used to like how tf does healing wish work. I think poorny has a very good understanding of SS teambuilding and that has shown in his individual AND team's successes in WCOP/OLT, which is why i am bolding him here. fear's luck wont help him that much cuz poornys just as lucky lol.

SS LC: LilyAC vs Osh: Two of the best LCers in the pool clash in a rematch of LC open semis (i think?) that I happened to catch. I won't cap Lily did kinda wash osh in that series but I am still going to call the Osh win here just bc osh is one of the most unpredictable players in my eyes. He isn't afraid to make aggressive doubles but sometimes i also just see him click like wtf. In a Bo3, i would probably go with lily just cuz i think she has a better grasp of the meta but I think osh's play/the timer will get him the W.

SS OU: Finchinator vs Dice: Mr. Standard himself facing Dice, a player well known for his unconventional picks and techs. I do think that Dice is in need of support in the teambuilding department, which I just don't really see from the Taipans. I also don't think dice is anywhere near comfortable with ss ou as he is in his moneymaker tier of BW OU judging from his wcop play. Additionally, I know finch has been actively playing SS OU ever since WCOP ended, which isn't really something most of us can say lol. so im sure hell bring a solid team and i think thats all itll take to score finch his first win.

SS OU: Star vs Eo Ut Mortus: I forgot who it was that was like once Eo settles into the meta, he just starts winning a lot more. But whoever said that, I completely agree with. Having just qualified for OLT, I'm sure Eo's been cooking and breaking the metagame as usual with his creative niches. I really do think Star is a phenomenal player but I strongly strongly believe that the current SS OU metagame VERY much favors Eo's playstyle. I suppose u could say that Eo is a bit predictable in his teamchoices like aha EO=staller haha but idt Star is the type to go out of his way to take advantage of that in the teambuilder, which is where I think it will cost him.

SS OU: watashi vs Garay Oak: Prepare to get outclicked garay. FLCL has been one of the most impressive OU players of this generation, leading his team to an SPL trophy and continuing his dominance in WCOP. fooly pushes the pace of the game so much and he never really lets up momentum, making him extremely hard to play against imo. Having said that, I mean Garay isn't bad at OU and I'm sure eo and the gang will support him but he def is nowhere near as good as he is in NU or fooly in OU for that matter.

SS NU: Bobby Dagen vs Elodin- Two historic NU players that haven't touched the tier in a while afaik clash in a game u wouldve seen in SPL 9 or something. Bobby Dag-, yea im gonna call him rodri, so Rodri has Ho3n supporting him which is huge because Ho3n is one of the most active builders in NU and I'm sure he's eager to put those ideas to work in his first official. However, Elodin also has ren-chon by his side, another pretty active (i think?) nu player, who can help him get up to speed with the tier. I think this game just boils down to Elodin just being a better player. Idk how crust he is lmao but this is one of the best NU players we're talking abt so pretty easy bold.

uh yea ok this is too exhausting lol but i am kinda hyped to see the debut of Storm Zone. u cant really deny that he owned OLT and that HO of his is kinda dominating the ladder rn. really curious to see how that translates to the tour scene. also wtf kink plays pu?

GO TEAM , playing kush like friday i think not sure yet
 
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Finchinator

no longer Harry’s house
is a Tournament Directoris a Top Social Media Contributoris a Community Leaderis a Community Contributoris a Live Chat Contributoris a Top Tiering Contributoris a Contributor to Smogonis a Top Smogon Media Contributoris a Super Moderator Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past WCoP Championis a former Tournament Circuit Champion
OU & NU Leader
Saturday 7pm GMT-4 vs dice, let's go Astrotias!

Predictions:
Rumble Hall Rattlers (7) vs (3) Berry Forest Bushmasters

SS OU: Kebab mlml vs Santu - Santu has been amazing this year. He is pretty quiet, so perhaps some people missed the memo, but Santu has done great in both official team tournaments this year. Picking him at the r1-2 wheel was a smart decision from the Bushmasters. When working in conjunction with Lopunny Kicks, I would imagine he is going to replicate WCOP results. Of course, he is against a fellow Italian in Kebab mlml, who also has building support such as TDK, but I have to favor Santu here despite the familiarity. I think Kebab will win some games, but this time around he will be outmatched by his WCOP teammate.

SS OU: Fear vs Lopunny Kicks - Both of these guys are great players and in most old generations I would bold Fear without hesitation, but Lopunny Kicks is at home for this match in SS OU. Lopunny Kicks may not have stood out in his SPL or WCOP stints in the tier, but he did at least go positive in WCOP and many people are raving about his play/building in the tier as of late. I think he will be able to take Fear on, who I am yet to gauge in this tier until I see a larger sample size. Fear is a player to watch, but investing too much blind faith is not something I am willing to do yet. If he plays SS like he does GSC, then I will absolutely regret this prediction though. Excited to watch this one regardless.

SS OU: lax vs Bloody alfa - lax has dominated most official tournaments he has played in OU. For a player that originated in NU, this may be one of the most impressive accomplishments ever. Taking him first overall was very justified and we should expect great things from him this tour. Bloody alfa is a great up-and-coming player who has impressed every single time he has had the opportunity to this year. I am very excited to see how he does this Snake, but this is as rough a draw as he could have possibly gotten to start things off. lax is more experienced and likely better at taking the risks necessary to win games at this point. I would not be shocked if Bloody pulls an upset as he is well-versed in SS OU, but I have to side with laximus prime here.

SS OU: Samqian vs frisoeva - Samqian has a lot less to go off of admiteddly, but I think he looked a lot better in WCOP than frisoeva. Samqian looked dominant and was a Gunk Shot hit away from going undefeated in his WCOP debut whereas friso seemed to be inconsistent. friso has had some great performances, including in a prior edition of Snake, but I do not know if I can invest too much confidence in his SS play yet. If he is able to work well with the Italians and his WCOP teammate Bloody alfa, then maybe he can get more comfortable and put up another strong record, but until I see much proof of that I will be hesitant. Samqian is teaming with TDK again and has shown a great deal of competence in the metagame, so I will give him a slight edge in his Snake debut.

SS DOU: Ezrael vs qsns - Both are going to do well in this field, but Ezrael is far and away the top dog. I think he and Ajna are both impossible to predict against until their performances or the performance of another competitor in their fields go against expectations and give strong reason to believe things contrary to what we believed going into the tournament. Ezrael has been great in just about everything he has played recently; I see no reason to believe this will be an outlier showing. qsns is solid and has more experience than most players in DOU now, but I think this one is going to be too challenging for even him.

SS UU: CBU vs Ramolost - This dude Ramolost devoured me on the UU suspect ladder with a mixed Virizion, so he is probably the next best UU player honestly, especially if he is starting over pif. CBU is more proven though. Be it in UU or tournaments in general (as he plays things like WCOP), I expect him to live up to his high ranking and win against Ramolost in his debut. It is always interesting to see what newer players have to bring to the table though, so I am excited for this one.

SS RU: Ajna vs roman - Hard to predict against Ajna this tournament. I think I will bold him every week until he or someone else in the playerbase gives me a legitimate reason not to through their performance. So far there are no reasons to do so, making this automatic. roman had a great debut last season, but there is still a long way to go for roman to reach Ajna levels.

SS NU: bugzinator vs CyberOdin✝ - If someone told me that bugzinator was playing CyberOdin in week 1 of Snake before the draft, NU would not have been within the first three tiers I guessed. Odin is predominantly known as an OU player, bugzinator is predominantly known as a UU player, and people discussed him as a potential PU starter before the tournament a bit. With that said, bugzinator has had some amazing NUPL runs and I feel like he is more up-to-date with modern lower tiers than Odin is or ever has been. I think he will transition easily and is less likely to use something suboptimal. Odin could easily win based on sheer gameplay ability as he is a superb player, but until we see how he is in this metagame, I will go with bugzinator.

SS PU: Roseybear vs soulgazer - soulgazer is not quite at Ajna in RU levels as he has bounced around different lower tiers, but against the bottom half of this field I still view him as virtually automatic until the games give me a reason to believe otherwise. soulgazer is a fantastic player and he seems content playing PU. Roseybear is relatively inexperienced, but he does have some good recent showings, including PU Open. This is not enough for me to predict him over soulgazer though.

SS LC: Serene Grace vs Kingler - Serene looked fantastic in SPL and I have little reason to believe he will be any less effective in Snake. Kingler is a fine player, but he oftentimes holds himself back with team choices or avoidable mistakes in team tournaments. He seems better off in individuals as he probably is one of the most successful LC Open players of all time at this point. Unfortunately, LC Open is very different from Smogon Snake Draft and because of that, Serene is an easy bold for me.

Shinto Ruin Serpents (6) vs (2) Sky Tower Lindworms

SS OU: Star vs Eo Ut Mortus - Story time! Back in the days when Ubers was considered a tier and PU was considered a meme (ok, maybe we still are in those days), Eo and Starmaster got paired for phase 2 (that's right -- we had phases instead of weeks) of Smogon Snake Draft 1. Starmaster was off to a great start in what was seen as his coming-out party from the depths of Little Cup. Eo started calling Starmaster "Stairmaster" in our team chat during the week, prepared well for the game, and won the match convincingly. Before Stairmaster could play another game, he got locked up for a long ass time with a tournament ban. Stairmaster had well over a year to sit on his ass and reflect upon that final loss. If he cannot win this time around, then I am convinced Eo will forever be the master of Smogon stair climbing.

Story time over. As for this match that is happening in 2020, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Star will win because he has some good results in the tier. 7-2 in SPL is really impressive, even if it was followed up by an 0-3 WCOP. Eo was not super impressive in his SS stint during SPL and his WCOP was similarly mediocre, but he did qualify for OLT recently, so I think he is back on track. These two are polar opposites: Eo is a creator of chaos and a pusher of metagame standards whereas Star is always going to use solid teams, but will never be one to singlehandedly dictate the flows of the tournament metagame. Star is more likely to use something reliable, but Eo is more likely to use something extraordinary if he does not go too far out of his way. Seeing as I am a standard spammer myself, I suppose I find Star's chances to be a bit better here as there is less of a chance for his team choice to backfire. I also think he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder here, especially given that he went third overall, so I will favor him. This one is basically a coin-flip though.

SS OU: watashi vs Garay oak - watashi has looked great all generation. Amazing showing in SPL, which concluded with a trophy, followed by strong showing in WCOP makes us wonder how he fell into the later part of r2. That will never make sense to me, but the least we can do now is predict him to continue his dominant run. Garay is a good player, but he has yet to stand out in OU like watashi and now seems like a challenging time to begin doing so.

SS OU: Tamahome vs Ewin - Ewin had a great WCOP r1, but he seemed to trip himself up throughout the playoffs, which is to be expected with a newer tournament player. Ewin is nothing special yet, but he definitely can get there with some more experience. Unfortunately, that takes time and this is the first week of the tournament, where he plays the man with the most official team tournament games won ever. Tamahome has not been too active or noteworthy in SS at all yet, but he has some very competent teammates to help him and he is just the better player by a significant margin. It would be a stretch for me to use lack of metagame presence as an argument to predict Ewin to win given the disparity in experience and effectiveness we have seen historically between the two. I'm not going to make that stretch, so I predict Tamahome to win.

SS OU: Malekith vs Jytcampbell - Malekith is crafty and I think Jyt will struggle to crack the code here. Jyt does a great job at holding his own. He will be worth the late round pick and probably go around even, if not a little lower. The thing is that he does not have the same preparation skills and metagame mastery to be able to tackle some of the less conventional players in the pool. I think that Malekith does well stylistically and also will surely have some practice in as he does not want a repeat of Spain's WCOP showing. I will say that Jyt has some nice wins under his belt such as TDK in the ungodly Sun mirror WCOP game, but I feel like this one goes to Kith in a tight one. I expect to see some techs on his end, but hopefully nothing on par with Scarf Snorlax for the Serpent's sake.

SS DOU: DLT JRL BELL vs umbreon098 - I do not consider myself knowledgeable enough to make a prediction on this match-up beyond what would be an uneducated guess.

SS UU: vivalospride vs Poek - viv is super motivated for Snake. For months, he has been hoping to make his debut here and prove that he is not just another friendly face, but also a strong competitor. I do not doubt that he is, but I do doubt that anyone will be able to handle a battle-tested veteran like Poek in their debut. Poek is coming off of some time off of Smogon, but his sense for the game is great and when he is motivated, he will put up great results. Perhaps I rank him higher than most do in this field, but I think Poek will start off strong here and likely have a good tournament if he does well in the first few weeks. viv will put it together more as he gains experience, so I hope management does not have too short of a leash here. I know he is super motivated and I expect to see some great things either way.

SS RU: Nat vs Pepeduce - Both seem to be solid, but I am not overly familiar with either in the current metagame. Everyone is hyped to see Pepeduce's teams and preparation, so he should have a shot at getting a win on surprise value, especially since Nat is tilt prone. However, Nat is wayyy more proven and can build well herself. She seems to be on a team with people she gets along with, too, so there will be some motivation to start off strong. I will be boring and predict her, the conventional favorite, to win, but this one intrigues me.

SS NU: Jrdn vs Realistic Waters - I guess this pick is an upset? I mean I do not personally think so, but others are less high on Jrdn. I think Jrdn did a great job establishing himself last year and will pick back up where he left off. He has two of the best pieces of NU support on Smogon on his team as managers in rozes and Eternally. This NU core is as scary as it gets to me. Realistic Waters is great though. His teams are always creative, his plays are always on-point, and his records are always strong. I think he will have another positive run this season and I do not doubt that he can win this game. I just think the NU core for the Serpents is going to be hard for anyone to take down. I believe Jrdn will have one of the best records in the tier this season if he remains active and motivated.

SS PU: obii vs TJ - TJ is going to be very eager here. This will be his official team tournament debut and he will be against someone who has virtually no PU experience. Can you imagine finally getting into Snake only to lose in your highly anticipated debut to a non-PU player who is 3-15 on the sheet? obii unironically has a target on his back for the newer players because of this honestly. Obviously you do not want to lose any match, especially not if it is your debut, but from a mental game standpoint this has to be huge for TJ. I think he has it in him to take it, too. He puts up solid results in all of the smaller PU tours, he knows the tier as well as anyone, and he is clearly motivated. obii is not as bad a player as his record indicates. I do not care what he went in SPL or WCOP in the past. He will find a way to win games in this pool, but I think that will happen as he gains more experience with the tier and likely after the tier shifts level the playing field a bit as all of the players have to adapt.

SS LC: Mazinger vs dcae - read DOU

Lake of Rage Leviathans (4) vs (5) Celadon City Cobras

SS OU: ramboss vs FMG - The Fire Monkey Gamer is back and I expect him to win his first game this Snake. FMG is pretty consistent as a slightly above average player in most pools. ramboss, on the other hand, strikes fear in to many players. But not for his play, for his well-being as some of his team choices are straight-up ungodly. Perhaps M Dragon taught him to be ruthless. If so, well done. If not, what are those!? I do not know how good ramboss is, but he is capable of winning any game based off of the sheer amount of danger he brings to the table. I will side with FMG here as he seems more proven and reliable, but I would not be surprised if this one got ugly in either direction.

SS OU: Rexus vs Steve Angello - Steve is a really good player and I think the Cobras OU core will get along well. They are all friendly and reasonable presences. Because of this, I think Steve will have plenty of team support and will be able to hold his own throughout the tournament. Perhaps this is a bit of an upset as Rexus is ranked higher and coming off of a great WCOP, but I have faith in Steve. Rexus is a good player who knows SS OU well and has John W and fellow Italian BK on board to help with preparation, so he is in good hands as well.

SS OU: John W vs mncmt - mncmt is having an amazing year. He was on the winning SPL team, he made it to the finals of OST, and he had a good WCOP. John W is having an amazing past few months. He has been making waves in the draft community, he dominated WCOP, and he was perhaps even more dominant in OLT qualifiers. John is also one of the most passionate and active players of the tier right now. I think what distinguishes him from mncmt for me is his building. John builds constantly and he is never afraid to test his ideas out. I expect him to be 100% prepared and ready to go for this game. mncmt probably will be, too, but I am less sure of how sharp his building is and I worry he may try to get too creative with some things. I think he will do well overall, but I favor John here slightly. This is a highlight match though. Both are great and alongside Eo-Star, xray-robjr, and lax-bloody alfa, this is one of the best W1 games.

SS OU: BK vs 1 True Lycan - The Baron has had some great performances. The most recent WCOP was very much not one of them, but Lycan has a positive record in all of Snake, SPL, and WCOP with a +8 differential in only 30 games on the sheet. That all is really impressive to me. When the games count, he makes sure he can put his best foot forward. BK is not too shabby either as he quietly has done well for the most part, too. I think I favor Lycan more just given the heights he has climbed to in tournaments like SPL. I think his ceiling is higher and he has a better grasp on team tournament play. However, BK may be a bit more up-to-date and also is not afraid to bring less predictable teams. I think both of these players will over-perform their rankings this season, but I favor Lycan here in a tight one.

SS DOU: Nails vs Qwello Lee - Nails seems like one of the best players in this field. I think his overall sense for winning Pokemon games is something that is underrated. RBY? He has been mostly dominant. VGC? He is one of the best out there. DOU? He went positive last Snake. I see nothing stopping him from repeating that result here. Qwello Lee has a cool name though.

SS UU: Luigi vs Lilburr - Lilburr has clawed her way up the UU tournament playing totem pole into Snake. It is always fun seeing debuts, but she will have her hands full here unfortunately. Luigi is a good player. He has had success in team tournaments and individual tournaments, but especially the latter. Luigi is coming off of a deep UU Open run and, if we go back further, a Smogon Tour win. I think that Lilburr may struggle in this field in general due to lack of experience, but she does know the metagame well and have a great sense for teambuilding. Unfortunately, Luigi has the support of fellow Brazilian hs to help him with teams and I think this core will be too much for Lilburr, even if she has some intriguing options up her sleeve that she may show this week or in coming weeks. It should be exciting to see what both come up with though and I am looking forward to this, much like the other exciting debuts this week.

SS RU: odr vs snaga - odr got this one. He is inexperienced in official team tournaments, but snaga has not played a ton himself either. odr at least has been dominant in other tournaments like RU Open, stringing together consistent runs like nobody else has. snaga is a good player, but I think he will get better as the season goes on and he adapts to both the metagame and the playerbase.

SS NU: Kushalos vs Sjneider - Sjneider is the best player in this NU field. Kushalos is not in the top group in my eyes either. Kushalos has potential to get there, but I have seen him around less this generation in general and in NU than prior. I think he has to prove that he can pick up where he left off and until I see that, I will be pretty confident in picking Sjneider. I will say that if he is up to the task, Kushalos can beat anyone with the right techs hitting or the right aggressive reads working, which he excels at making happen. However, Sjneider is as solid as it gets in NU this generation. He builds well, he is active, and he plays a strong game.

SS PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs Xiri - Xiri falling to round 6 after last year still baffles me. He was clearly one of the best in the field and it is not like the field improved drastically. I understand his timezone is not ideal and he may not be the biggest builder, but just off of sheer playing ability he is one of the top PU picks. I think he will make people regret passing him up for a round or two too many here. With good support in Specs, I expect Xiri to be locked-and-loaded this season. Hamhamhamhamham is a good player, but he is still new to officials and lacks the same upside of Xiri. I think he will win some games soon, but this is a tall order for a debut that I do not see him fulfilling.

SS LC: Xizaaa vs Shrug - I do not consider myself knowledgeable enough to make a prediction on this match-up beyond what would be an uneducated guess.

Black City Mambas (4) vs (3) Lanakila Nagas

SS OU: Gefährlicher Random vs Storm Zone - Gefahrlicher Random would get hyped up more if people could spell his name. The German PR agents should really consider a rebrand. Nonsense aside though, this guy is great. I love his approach and I think he plays very well. With some friends and WCOP teammates like Relous and xray on board, I expect him to thrive in this environment, too. Storm Zone is a wild card. Will his ladder success translate? He has beaten a ton of players in this tournament or who have thrived in tournaments before on the ladder, but will he get nervous or will they notice any trends in his building that they can capitalize on in preparation? I do not think there is a ton to exploit personally, so he will be able to win some games. However, I do not know that this will be one of them. Gefahrlicher Random looked great to me in the early WCOP stages and I have been very high on him since. I feel like he was ranked low on the basis of small sample size, which is fair, but he will outperform the ranking and go positive. Storm Zone is likely to have some break-out wins soon, too, but this one may be just out of reach.

SS OU: ZDen vs ima - ima seems to have a knack for finding creative ways to win games. Dracozolt in WCOP was a great example. I know the game was after the playoff series was "over", but he planned on using it regardless and it worked like a charm (not to be confused with Charmflash, who has not worked in 2020 in any regards quite yet). ima may have taken some time off after being rejected from managing, but if he is close to his form from last Snake or WCOP earlier this summer, then I expect him to take this. ZDen is a solid Latin American player. He does not make many horrible mistakes, but he also does not overwhelm people either. He is positive in WCOP overall, which is impressive. I want to see a bigger sample size before I can invest more confidence in ZDen, but I think he will do better than people expect if he plays a full season and has teambuilding support, which I assume the Germans will help provide.

SS OU: Relous vs Sacri' - It's funny because if this match-up happened during SPL, then Sacri would be a very clear favorite. He was surging and Relous had a poor regular season, which was only partially salvaged due to some playoff heroics. Since then, Sacri' struggled during WCOP and Relous restored some of the fading faith from his SPL woes. I still give Sacri' the edge. He looked strong on the OLT ladder and he is the more proven player. Relous is not someone to underrate as he can beat anyone imo, but I just do not think he is quite on par with Sacri'. Curious to see if he will try to counteract the obvious balance/bulky-offense with standard Pokemon that Sacri' will load up or if he will just go with his favorite options himself and hope to outplay as this could dictate how things go potentially.

SS OU: xray vs robjr - robjr had an amazing WCOP. 3-0 with a 6-0 in every single game. This improved his draft stock and made people view him as more than just a strong UU pick. Now, he has the chance to support SoulWind in UU while getting a full season in SS OU. The thing is that robjr is not much of a builder whereas xray is one of the most proven SS builders thus far. I think this creates an awkward match-up dynamic for rob. He likely will have some support, which can help, but I still feel like xray can get what he wants going team-wise and there will not be much stopping him from being comfortable here. I think xray is better in this particular metagame and while both are great players, this is xray's territory and he will keep up the success from SPL/WCOP. robjr will do well in future weeks once he gains his footing and runs into a less threatening match-up I feel.

SS DOU: Frania vs Memoric - I do not consider myself knowledgeable enough to make a prediction on this match-up beyond what would be an uneducated guess.

SS UU: Sabella vs SoulWind - Every single format SoulWind plays, he does well in. Sure, he has some "average" showings in ORAS OU and SM OU, but even then, those are offset by amazing performances in individual tournaments. Maybe he will not be the biggest builder or metagame innovator in SS UU, but he absolutely will win games. In SM UU last Snake, he did well. Now he has a whole UU Open's worth of success in hand leading up to this Snake and multiple potential supporters, including top UU option robjr. I expect him to have a great season and start it off with a win here. As for Sabella, he is passionate about UU and I love that he can adapt to playing lower tiers more. I think he is going to do well, too, but this is obviously a tough draw for the first week. Sabella may know the tier a bit better and he is not afraid to call some creative shots in the building process, but he will need to play at his peak in order to pull this one out.

SS RU: Charmflash vs atomicllamas - read DOU

SS NU: Bobby Dagen vs elodin - Both are similar as players overall in my eyes. Both have done well in NU in the past, too. Bobby Dagen seems to have more recent experience in NU though. elodin has great support in ren-chon on board, but this cannot fully compensate for experience that he is missing. Bobby Dagen is likely to have another good season and I do not doubt that elodin will, too, but it may take him a few weeks to hit his stride and really begin to pick up consistent wins.

SS PU: Ktütverde vs Kink - Ktut is straight-up amazing for a PU player. He has been dominant this generation and that is coming off of last generation, where he was already seen as one of the top dogs in PU. Sure, he went 4-4 last year with the infamously lucked win against taskr. That was his debut in a prior generation with what may have been a slightly stronger player pool. Now he is more experienced than most of his competition and he is also doing better than ever. Kink is one of the few veterans to find his way into this field, but he is not exactly a PU veteran, so it will be interesting to see how that pans out. I expect him to align with his normal brand of off-beat balance and bulky-offensive builds that will wrack up the wins as he gains steam. However, I do think there is an adjustment period that you have to respect for these things. Getting Ktut w1 will not be kind to that adjustment. Kink will struggle here, but with tier shifts making things fresh and his great analytical abilities kept in mind, I think he will find a way to finish at least even. Ktut, on the other hand, I fully expect to dominate this field from start-to-finish.

SS LC: Wail Wailord vs Ninjadog - read DOU


ps: for specific tier enthusiasts, be sure to check out the threads in each subforum and post your thoughts: OU | UU | RU | NU | PU | LC | DOU
 
Good luck to everyone in this tour, hope everyone has a fun time.

I did this 2 years ago and I'm doing it again. Go and check out the extremely talented Ajna. He's graduated from soundcloud to making sick music videos on youtube now and he's only getting better each track he releases. He's releasing some new music in September as well so show some love and support :heart:

 

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Good luck to everyone in this tour, hope everyone has a fun time.

I did this 2 years ago and I'm doing it again. Go and check out the extremely talented Ajna. He's graduated from soundcloud to making sick music videos on youtube now and he's only getting better each track he releases. He's releasing some new music in September as well so show some love and support :heart:

Nice try. Talented people don’t play mons
 
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