gonna try predicts for once, ou only because idk the playerbases intricately enough for the rest to be an interesting read
Sun Division
Moon Division
Sun Division
USUM OU #1:
SoulWind vs. 1 True Lycan - soulwind is the expected pick here because of his greater general skill and experience, but i would not be surprised at all to see lycan win. despite soulwind's recent results in the tier i don't consider him extremely well versed in its more fine details, rather someone who comes in possession of teams one way or another and uses overall pokemon skill to power through. lycan is a more true sm ou player and had some impressive games in wcop so a part of me thinks he'll surprise sw somehow in an aggressive manner.
CaronSmith vs. 1 True Lycan - caron had some good stuff last olt and made it again this year but never really "wowed" me, and also has no team tour experience so i have NO clue what to expect from him here. as u can see above i have at least more than that to say about lycan so i'll expect him to take this one.
CaronSmith vs. UltraBallz - less clear matchup but ub impressed me a bit this wcop and in general i think he has a solid grasp of the metagame and strikes good, creative ideas frequently enough to beat the more wild card caron.
USUM OU #2:
Kory2600 vs. Welli0u - the well has been out of tours for like a year now while kory has only improved since. kory uses less outright garbage than he used to and plays rather intelligently now so he should definitely take this one.
Cdumas vs. Welli0u - cdus been exceedingly consistent in tours for the past year+, only concern is that he's still not really a "builder" afaik and there's no standout people supporting him like his usual kory (sorry if im WAY off btw idk how france/ruiners worked internally but this is what i've gathered) so welliou could potentially run into a nice matchup. that being said, there's a clear and large skill gap here so that shouldn't affect the predictable outcome.
Cdumas vs. Eo Ut Mortus - i'm actually pretty high on eo's play in general, but i get the vibe that he's cooled off since spl and that cdu has learned from the mistakes of their last encounter. should be an interesting game to spectate if eo is in the proper mindset.
USUM OU #3:
Sacri' vs. Empo - sacri had a 3-0 wcop but his opps were blubird, matter of the dark, and miltankmilk. i know he's been grinding ou but empo is superbly more experienced here and i don't think sacri will be able to maintain the wcop results this tour in general, so empo should take it comfortably.
Kickasser vs. Empo - hard one for me to call, but i'm gonna go for my first true upset pick with this one and say kick takes it. i really think kick has potential to be great and i had some stellar games with him on ladder where he gave me the impression of having an authentic understanding of the game so i truly hope it shines for once. empo's been solid overall but thats usually more in indiv tours for one reason or another so there's not enough for me to automatically favor him here.
Kickasser vs. aim - i think highly of kick + aim's had shaky ou games in spl/wcop where he values short term over long term so i think that'll bite him in the ass. he's been having a good slam but that's not ou and not the same caliber game so that doesn't hold much weight for me.
USUM OU #4:
Updated Kanto vs. FMG - kanto's been in quite the slump and fmg is at the very least better than terrible (based on what tdk has told me) so i'm gonna expect a mediocre game except fmg should still take it unless kanto somehow plays like a man again.
Tamahome vs. FMG - i think tama's been pretty out of touch with the metagame since last snake but he showed hes an adaptable person last time around and has the overall talent so the skill gap should be quite apparent in this game.
Tamahome vs. ayevon - ayevon's decent but definitely still has more to go, tama should comfortably take this one.
SoulWind vs. 1 True Lycan - soulwind is the expected pick here because of his greater general skill and experience, but i would not be surprised at all to see lycan win. despite soulwind's recent results in the tier i don't consider him extremely well versed in its more fine details, rather someone who comes in possession of teams one way or another and uses overall pokemon skill to power through. lycan is a more true sm ou player and had some impressive games in wcop so a part of me thinks he'll surprise sw somehow in an aggressive manner.
CaronSmith vs. 1 True Lycan - caron had some good stuff last olt and made it again this year but never really "wowed" me, and also has no team tour experience so i have NO clue what to expect from him here. as u can see above i have at least more than that to say about lycan so i'll expect him to take this one.
CaronSmith vs. UltraBallz - less clear matchup but ub impressed me a bit this wcop and in general i think he has a solid grasp of the metagame and strikes good, creative ideas frequently enough to beat the more wild card caron.
USUM OU #2:
Kory2600 vs. Welli0u - the well has been out of tours for like a year now while kory has only improved since. kory uses less outright garbage than he used to and plays rather intelligently now so he should definitely take this one.
Cdumas vs. Welli0u - cdus been exceedingly consistent in tours for the past year+, only concern is that he's still not really a "builder" afaik and there's no standout people supporting him like his usual kory (sorry if im WAY off btw idk how france/ruiners worked internally but this is what i've gathered) so welliou could potentially run into a nice matchup. that being said, there's a clear and large skill gap here so that shouldn't affect the predictable outcome.
Cdumas vs. Eo Ut Mortus - i'm actually pretty high on eo's play in general, but i get the vibe that he's cooled off since spl and that cdu has learned from the mistakes of their last encounter. should be an interesting game to spectate if eo is in the proper mindset.
USUM OU #3:
Sacri' vs. Empo - sacri had a 3-0 wcop but his opps were blubird, matter of the dark, and miltankmilk. i know he's been grinding ou but empo is superbly more experienced here and i don't think sacri will be able to maintain the wcop results this tour in general, so empo should take it comfortably.
Kickasser vs. Empo - hard one for me to call, but i'm gonna go for my first true upset pick with this one and say kick takes it. i really think kick has potential to be great and i had some stellar games with him on ladder where he gave me the impression of having an authentic understanding of the game so i truly hope it shines for once. empo's been solid overall but thats usually more in indiv tours for one reason or another so there's not enough for me to automatically favor him here.
Kickasser vs. aim - i think highly of kick + aim's had shaky ou games in spl/wcop where he values short term over long term so i think that'll bite him in the ass. he's been having a good slam but that's not ou and not the same caliber game so that doesn't hold much weight for me.
USUM OU #4:
Updated Kanto vs. FMG - kanto's been in quite the slump and fmg is at the very least better than terrible (based on what tdk has told me) so i'm gonna expect a mediocre game except fmg should still take it unless kanto somehow plays like a man again.
Tamahome vs. FMG - i think tama's been pretty out of touch with the metagame since last snake but he showed hes an adaptable person last time around and has the overall talent so the skill gap should be quite apparent in this game.
Tamahome vs. ayevon - ayevon's decent but definitely still has more to go, tama should comfortably take this one.
Moon Division
USUM OU #1:
Bro Kappa vs. Paycard - idk how consistent his play really is but bk has always had some pretty cool ideas from time to time and is just the more experienced / better player here so in every notable category he's favored over paycard, who really only has an olt qualification to his name.
Bro Kappa vs. Finchinator - bk's got that stuff going on but i think his high point this round will be vs paycard and the low point vs finch. finch wasn't in smou in spl or wcop but has kept in touch w the tier while having generally solid results all around so i expect him to just have a clean win vs bk who takes innovation too far this game.
Tricking vs. Finchinator - so, one thing finch is not good at is keeping his composure, especially in the face of a loss. i believe the scattered memories of the spl8 game, compounded by the fact that the spirit of cbb will be in smogtours for this game typing "SICK LUKE" will tilt finch to the point where tricking's salazzle or otherwise equivalent mon will sweep the game as finch complains about his opponent using garbage or getting lucky. hope you prove me wrong bud.
Tricking vs. Lavos - tricking is infatuated with the idea of using garbage from time to time and also has a tendency to fuck up favorable scenarios by giving himself worse odds than necessary. that being said, he's still quite a solid all around player and has a lot more experience in this tier so he should take this one over lavos. i believe lavos has somewhat tried to follow sm but i expect a guy like tricking to exploit his unfamiliarity.
Paycard vs. Lavos - mountain of experience and skill difference here, don't think paycard's slightly greater sm familiarity can overcome that fact.
USUM OU #2:
Jaina vs. Ojama - i'm not calling you jaina lol. charm's actually pretty solid overall, especially in the teambuilding department so i rate him over most guys he'd usually be grouped with in terms of skill. however, he's faced against an all time great + one who has been grinding and grinding sm dating back to last olt. ojama's made 2 olts, some stour playoffs, and put up a solid snake record in a pretty brief amount of time. he's not known for his sm but i think hes fantastic at it and hes obviously outstanding as an overall player of pokemon so i'm gonna favor him vs a large majority of this pool.
Jaina vs. Jirachee - as i said i think charm's definitely good enough to hang and jirachee has practically 0 sm experience afaik so it's a pretty straightforward game here.
blarghlfargl vs. Jirachee - blargh had a mediocre wcop and an especially atrocious showing in the final, so it's hard to say a lot here. however, he still made olt and at least knows the tier somewhat so i think that'll carry him through this matchup but it's kinda near even to me.
blarghlfargl vs. bro fist - literally last and first respectively on my rankings.
Ojama vs. bro fist - second and first on my rankings! couldn't ask for more personally as a spectator of this tour, so really looking forward to this one. both are usual bullshit-free, intelligent yet aggressive players who act with prime consistency in every battle they engage in. have to give john the edge as i generally view him as my strongest competition on this site.
USUM OU #3:
LittleBigPlanet2 vs. suapah - i think suapah's better than most people think he is (13th on my ranks, 26th overall), smart metagamer and a solid battler with great showings this wcop. vs littlebigplanet2 btw??? (really i have no clue who this guy is or anything he has done EVER so all i can do is predict his opponent)
LittleBigPlanet2 vs. Lopunny Kicks - i refuse to cite the game vs googly that everyone is obsessed with but regardless his opponent is littlebigplanet2 in case u forgot.
Ciele vs. Lopunny Kicks - not sure ciele's touched the metagame since last olt, tough game for me to call but gonna go w lop kicks. i say this because 1) ciele hasn't touched sm since last olt afaik and 2) he's historically less potent in team tours for whatever psychological reason. lop kicks isn't perfectly refined but i think he can utilize his aggressive high points and beat an assumedly weakened ciele.
Ciele vs. xray - haven't seen a lick of xray in sm but he's always been decent at oras and he/people say he's learned sm. still, i haven't seen it with my own two eyes so i'm not convinced at this point in time. ciele's also the better overall player by a good amount, still the champ.
suapah vs. xray - praises of suapah above, doubts about xray above. yea.
USUM OU #4:
Malekith vs. Posho - kith has been quite the consistent sm'er, making semis of ost twice in a row and also this olt. that being said, i've never gotten the vibe that he's truly great at the tier, especially regarding stuff like his outlandish team choices that sometimes backfire. honestly really hard game for me to pick because posho's way more solid overall but he hasn't played sm in forever and got tilted a lot this year so I don't think he is at his peak. kith is still a pretty nice player when he finds his stroke so i'll go with him vs the unsteady posho.
Malekith vs. Hiye - aside from the abhorrent zap tbolt vs ttg's azu in wcop finals, hiye's been one of the most consistent sm ou players dating back to his stour run. he's a guy you can usually trust to play the calculated and intelligent way with minimal hiccups, should be a safer victory vs a less predictable malekith. upset potential is here tho.
Eternal Spirit vs. Hiye - put these guys side by side in my ranks, es just above. can't always understand his thought processes but es' records speak for themselves and i think he'll aggressively outpressure the timid hiye, whether it be in the builder or on the battlefield.
Eternal Spirit vs. Eternam - a lot of people say nice things about eternam and i honestly like some teams attributed to him but he had some trash games in wcop so it's real easy to favor es here unless eternam pulls a 180.
Posho vs. Eternam - despite being out of touch w sm he's still posho and eternam is a shaky player so this is a pretty one-sided matchup.
Bro Kappa vs. Paycard - idk how consistent his play really is but bk has always had some pretty cool ideas from time to time and is just the more experienced / better player here so in every notable category he's favored over paycard, who really only has an olt qualification to his name.
Bro Kappa vs. Finchinator - bk's got that stuff going on but i think his high point this round will be vs paycard and the low point vs finch. finch wasn't in smou in spl or wcop but has kept in touch w the tier while having generally solid results all around so i expect him to just have a clean win vs bk who takes innovation too far this game.
Tricking vs. Finchinator - so, one thing finch is not good at is keeping his composure, especially in the face of a loss. i believe the scattered memories of the spl8 game, compounded by the fact that the spirit of cbb will be in smogtours for this game typing "SICK LUKE" will tilt finch to the point where tricking's salazzle or otherwise equivalent mon will sweep the game as finch complains about his opponent using garbage or getting lucky. hope you prove me wrong bud.
Tricking vs. Lavos - tricking is infatuated with the idea of using garbage from time to time and also has a tendency to fuck up favorable scenarios by giving himself worse odds than necessary. that being said, he's still quite a solid all around player and has a lot more experience in this tier so he should take this one over lavos. i believe lavos has somewhat tried to follow sm but i expect a guy like tricking to exploit his unfamiliarity.
Paycard vs. Lavos - mountain of experience and skill difference here, don't think paycard's slightly greater sm familiarity can overcome that fact.
USUM OU #2:
Jaina vs. Ojama - i'm not calling you jaina lol. charm's actually pretty solid overall, especially in the teambuilding department so i rate him over most guys he'd usually be grouped with in terms of skill. however, he's faced against an all time great + one who has been grinding and grinding sm dating back to last olt. ojama's made 2 olts, some stour playoffs, and put up a solid snake record in a pretty brief amount of time. he's not known for his sm but i think hes fantastic at it and hes obviously outstanding as an overall player of pokemon so i'm gonna favor him vs a large majority of this pool.
Jaina vs. Jirachee - as i said i think charm's definitely good enough to hang and jirachee has practically 0 sm experience afaik so it's a pretty straightforward game here.
blarghlfargl vs. Jirachee - blargh had a mediocre wcop and an especially atrocious showing in the final, so it's hard to say a lot here. however, he still made olt and at least knows the tier somewhat so i think that'll carry him through this matchup but it's kinda near even to me.
blarghlfargl vs. bro fist - literally last and first respectively on my rankings.
Ojama vs. bro fist - second and first on my rankings! couldn't ask for more personally as a spectator of this tour, so really looking forward to this one. both are usual bullshit-free, intelligent yet aggressive players who act with prime consistency in every battle they engage in. have to give john the edge as i generally view him as my strongest competition on this site.
USUM OU #3:
LittleBigPlanet2 vs. suapah - i think suapah's better than most people think he is (13th on my ranks, 26th overall), smart metagamer and a solid battler with great showings this wcop. vs littlebigplanet2 btw??? (really i have no clue who this guy is or anything he has done EVER so all i can do is predict his opponent)
LittleBigPlanet2 vs. Lopunny Kicks - i refuse to cite the game vs googly that everyone is obsessed with but regardless his opponent is littlebigplanet2 in case u forgot.
Ciele vs. Lopunny Kicks - not sure ciele's touched the metagame since last olt, tough game for me to call but gonna go w lop kicks. i say this because 1) ciele hasn't touched sm since last olt afaik and 2) he's historically less potent in team tours for whatever psychological reason. lop kicks isn't perfectly refined but i think he can utilize his aggressive high points and beat an assumedly weakened ciele.
Ciele vs. xray - haven't seen a lick of xray in sm but he's always been decent at oras and he/people say he's learned sm. still, i haven't seen it with my own two eyes so i'm not convinced at this point in time. ciele's also the better overall player by a good amount, still the champ.
suapah vs. xray - praises of suapah above, doubts about xray above. yea.
USUM OU #4:
Malekith vs. Posho - kith has been quite the consistent sm'er, making semis of ost twice in a row and also this olt. that being said, i've never gotten the vibe that he's truly great at the tier, especially regarding stuff like his outlandish team choices that sometimes backfire. honestly really hard game for me to pick because posho's way more solid overall but he hasn't played sm in forever and got tilted a lot this year so I don't think he is at his peak. kith is still a pretty nice player when he finds his stroke so i'll go with him vs the unsteady posho.
Malekith vs. Hiye - aside from the abhorrent zap tbolt vs ttg's azu in wcop finals, hiye's been one of the most consistent sm ou players dating back to his stour run. he's a guy you can usually trust to play the calculated and intelligent way with minimal hiccups, should be a safer victory vs a less predictable malekith. upset potential is here tho.
Eternal Spirit vs. Hiye - put these guys side by side in my ranks, es just above. can't always understand his thought processes but es' records speak for themselves and i think he'll aggressively outpressure the timid hiye, whether it be in the builder or on the battlefield.
Eternal Spirit vs. Eternam - a lot of people say nice things about eternam and i honestly like some teams attributed to him but he had some trash games in wcop so it's real easy to favor es here unless eternam pulls a 180.
Posho vs. Eternam - despite being out of touch w sm he's still posho and eternam is a shaky player so this is a pretty one-sided matchup.
