Finals Smogon Premier League XIV - Finals [Won by Team Raiders]

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  • the plot is inevitable: this is the seventh finals tiebreak in a row (last final w/o tb was SPL 7 in 2016)
  • if sharks win the tiebreak they'll become the undisputed GOAT franchise at 4 wins (currently tied with Ruiners and Wolfpack at 3 wins each)
  • if raiders win they'll be the 2nd ever franchise to achieve a repeat win (only done by ruiners SPL 10&11)
  • germany fact: with his 9th win mind already crowns himself with the winningest season of any german ever. insane.
unbiased tiebreak predicts:
i don't think it's a pure coincidence that spl has reached tiebreak 7 years in a row. the spl pressure and the swings after each victory/defeat feel so pronounced in finals; and when it gets really close at the end, say a 6-5 advantage, it feels like you need to have insane composure to not be too comfortable w not being 100% elimmed if you lose. it's only natural that at the highest stakes, the finals pressure is unpredictable in how it will affect things. some people probably feel nothing at all, but i'd like to think after all the time investment and expectations, it gets to almost everyone somehow.

tiebreaks are also always interesting to predict bc i feel like it almost never goes as expected. idr the statistic off the top of my head but usually the tier picked by x team results in a loss for that team? the pressure put on someone who is "unanimously favored"/expected to win as opposed to the underdog playing with low pressure/expectations probably contributes more to upsets in the highest stage, especially tiebreak. obviously it's not even close to the whole picture, but i'll go against the grain of what most people would probably predict anyway :themadpat:
SV OU: Gtcha vs mind gaming - both clutch players and amazing at pkmn. my predict comes down to which team feels more on top of the sv meta. what the raiders have done with their sv core post-bea of 9k total credits is one of the most impressive managerial feats in recent memory. recycling teams seemed to be punished in finals on both sides, so i'm expecting this game to be the culmination of some of the best sv innovation we've seen. bleach is def raiders best sv player, so his skills coupled with the raiders' innovation has me predicting him to win the final sv game this spl.

SM OU: Skypenguin vs SoulWind - on paper skype is favored bc he has had an incredible run in sm and feels at the highest echelon of modern sm builders. however, borja is also amazing in this tier and usually does well in more consistent metas. i'm feeling shades of when he showed up to olt finals with novel teams and 2-0d undefeated cora in a lopsided set. i wouldn't be even the slightest bit surprised if skype walks away w this one -- the raiders are clearly very confident in him and for good reason. that said, for reasons mentioned in my rambly thoughts, gonna bold sw.

ORAS OU: McMeghan vs jonfilch - in the spirit of me predicting against jon 9 weeks in a row last spl, i'll try to keep the tradition. jon is ofc favored vs almost everyone in oras at this pt w some of the most dominant string of results the tier has seen in recent time. my gut says roro takes it bc while jon has had to play this tier for 11 weeks now, roro is coming in fresh and is no stranger to high stakes oras games. this will be jon's hardest challenge yet, as he has to beat one of the greatest players of all time in roro in the highest pressure environment where he's "favored" and specifically picked as the sharks ace in tb. like skype, it would not surprise me at all to see jon win, as it's what most people would expect. the 17-5 run in the past two teamtours has also been extremely impressive...not sure how many people have had similar feats but the list can't be that large.

i don't see both sm and oras being taken by one team. i think this comes down to the sv game. rooting for the raiders but the sharks are extremely deserving winners. GL all
Team Raiders now:

About the tiebreak... i might look biased because of my italian (and non-italian) friends on the raiders but i actually think this tiebreak is potentially a clean 3-0 to me.

Gtcha is exactly what it takes to win in these high pressure games in CG. I think mind gaming is mostly a threat because of his successful counterbuilds, and in game he is not always super clean. So if the matchup is fair, i see bleach favoured.

SM is a tier that generally demands a lot of focus and reasoning to the players - that's why I like it - and I just think Skype's great streak will help him. While SW is a solid player in general I don't think he is even close to his prime so I wouldn't bet on him.

As for ORAS, I agree with Excal. jonfilch's challenge will be to face one of the real goats, in a very good condition, in a tier he knows pretty well. Without recent scoutings to help him.

I hope Raiders win also to make Kebby more comfortable with what happened before, my boy is very disappointed about it and I can totally relate. But this kind of shit always happened in high stakes games and we gotta move on. Rest and watch your mates finish what you started.

Chris Chien Pao

formerly hunternoooob
Team Raiders (1) vs Stark Sharks (2)
SV OU: Gtcha vs mind gaming (mind gaming)
SM OU: Skypenguin vs SoulWind (soulwind)
ORAS OU: McMeghan vs jonfilch (mcmeghan)
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