Smogon Premier League XIII - Week 2

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Merritt

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Welcome to the thirteenth iteration of SPL, SPL XIII. In this tournament, 10 teams containing the most top levelest players on Smogon duke it out every week, attempting to gather as many wins as they can to reach playoffs. Most of them will fail, but one will win everything. Whatever the case the matches will be exciting, so without further ado here are tournament rules and the matchups!

Tournaments Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups


Congregation of the Classiest (5) vs (5) Circus Maximus Tigers

SS OU: 64 Squares vs Separation
SS OU: Luthier vs beatiful
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs Eternal Spirit
SM OU: London Beats vs Charmflash
ORAS OU: erz vs jonfilch
BW OU: SoulWind vs Finchinator
DPP OU: Emeral vs SFG
ADV OU: johnnyg2 vs Teclis
GSC OU: Garay oak vs Zokuru
RBY OU: Mako vs Amaranth


Wi-Fi Wolfpack (5) vs (5) Ever Grande BIGS

SS OU: Trosko vs Samqian
SS OU: Corazan vs INSULT
SS OU: talah vs Tace
SM OU: Relous vs z0mOG
ORAS OU: Persephone vs Vileman
BW OU: GaryTheGengar vs watashi
DPP OU: Void vs mael
ADV OU: Star vs Altina
GSC OU: soulgazer vs lax
RBY OU: Nails vs Hayburner


Team Raiders (2) vs (8) Cryonicles

SS OU: TJ vs mncmt
SS OU: devin vs 1 True Lycan
SS OU: BIHI vs Storm Zone
SM OU: Punny vs Lusa
ORAS OU: xray vs Spl4sh
BW OU: elodin vs Stareal
DPP OU: H.M.N.I.P vs Kristyl
ADV OU: Sadlysius vs Ojama
GSC OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Conflict
RBY OU: Aliss vs Exiline


Alpha Ruiners (5) vs (5) Dragonspiral Tyrants

SS OU: Ajna vs Leo
SS OU: Ox the Fox vs Rubyblood
SS OU: MAX UND MAX vs HSA
SM OU: Skypenguin vs frisoeva
ORAS OU: Luigi vs Santu
BW OU: dice vs Gilbert arenas
DPP OU: Malekith vs Christo
ADV OU: M Dragon vs ABR
GSC OU: Kenix vs TC
RBY OU: chuva de perereca vs FriendOfMrGolem120


Stark Sharks (7) vs (3) Indie Scooters

SS OU: robjr vs LNumbers
SS OU: bro fist vs Gefährlicher Random
SS OU: mind gaming vs Niko
SM OU: Welli0u vs ima
ORAS OU: CrashinBoomBang vs Raptor
BW OU: crucify vs peng
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Sakito
ADV OU: Pheo' vs mikmer
GSC OU: Jirachee vs Fear
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Serpi


Deadline: Sunday January 16th, 9 PM EST (GMT-5)

Congregation of the Classiest (0) vs (0) Circus Maximus Tigers

SS OU: 64 Squares vs Separation
SS OU: Luthier vs beatiful
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs Eternal Spirit
SM OU: London Beats vs Charmflash
ORAS OU: erz vs jonfilch
BW OU: SoulWind vs Finchinator
DPP OU: Emeral vs SFG
ADV OU: johnnyg2 vs Teclis
GSC OU: Garay oak vs Zokuru
RBY OU: Mako vs Amaranth

Wi-Fi Wolfpack (0) vs (0) Ever Grande BIGS

SS OU: Trosko vs Samqian
SS OU: Corazan vs INSULT
SS OU: talah vs Tace
SM OU: Relous vs z0mOG
ORAS OU: Persephone vs Vileman
BW OU: GaryTheGengar vs watashi
DPP OU: Void vs mael
ADV OU: Star vs Altina
GSC OU: soulgazer vs lax
RBY OU: Nails vs Hayburner

Team Raiders (0) vs (0) Cryonicles

SS OU: TJ vs mncmt
SS OU: devin vs 1 True Lycan
SS OU: BIHI vs Storm Zone
SM OU: Punny vs Lusa
ORAS OU: xray vs Spl4sh
BW OU: elodin vs Stareal
DPP OU: H.M.N.I.P vs Kristyl
ADV OU: Sadlysius vs Ojama
GSC OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Conflict
RBY OU: Aliss vs Exiline

Alpha Ruiners (0) vs (0) Dragonspiral Tyrants

SS OU: Ajna vs Leo
SS OU: Ox the Fox vs Rubyblood
SS OU: MAX UND MAX vs HSA
SM OU: Skypenguin vs frisoeva
ORAS OU: Luigi vs Santu
BW OU: dice vs Gilbert arenas
DPP OU: Malekith vs Christo
ADV OU: M Dragon vs ABR
GSC OU: Kenix vs TC
RBY OU: chuva de perereca vs FriendOfMrGolem120

Stark Sharks (0) vs (0) Indie Scooters

SS OU: robjr vs LNumbers
SS OU: bro fist vs Gefährlicher Random
SS OU: mind gaming vs Niko
SM OU: Welli0u vs ima
ORAS OU: CrashinBoomBang vs Raptor
BW OU: crucify vs peng
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Sakito
ADV OU: Pheo' vs mikmer
GSC OU: Jirachee vs Fear
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Serpi
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Diophantine

Banned deucer.
We've all seen the infamous "can a monkey outpredict Finchinator?" experiment, but why not take it a step further and see if that monkey can beat the predictions of all SPL starters? Let's see how accurate the power rankings are.

Before anyone ratios me telling me to touch grass, I woke up a bit too early and this only took about 10ish minutes. Also I would love to touch grass but COVID is kicking my ass rn.

I wrote a quick Python script that would crunch the SPL power rankings numbers and work out an estimate for the probability of either player winning a game.
The input data was the average ranking given on the power rankings article.
It took each data point and calculated a score (very simply 10 - the average ranking).
For each match, it worked out the probability of either player winning: prob(player A/B wins) = score(player A/B)/(score(player A) + score(player B))
It would then calculate everybody's 'expected record' by summing up the probabilities of wins (and losses by 9 minus that number).
I didn't do SS because it wasn't in a nice format in the article and couldn't be bothered to change it.

Of course the score calculation model is not perfect, and if anyone has anyone has any ideas for optimising it pls let me know. Ultimately it's however you think the average rankings correlate to skill level. I just did a linear model because I was too lazy to think of anything else. This has a few issues, for example the probabilities don't scale up. For example, if someone has score 1 vs someone with score 2, the prob that they win is 1/3, but if someone has score 4 vs someone with score 5, the prob that they win is 4/9, which is quite different despite the difference in score being constant. It passes the eye-test though, but could maybe be done with better accuracy.

I hope my efforts will democratise the corrupt SPL betting market.

Results:
Heroic Troller vs Nails: 53.45% - 46.55%
Heroic Troller vs FriendOfMrGolem120: 55.36% - 44.64%
Heroic Troller vs Amaranth: 60.19% - 39.81%
Heroic Troller vs Serpi: 62.62% - 37.38%
Heroic Troller vs Exiline: 63.26% - 36.74%
Heroic Troller vs Mako: 69.66% - 30.340000000000003%
Heroic Troller vs Hayburner: 79.48% - 20.519999999999996%
Heroic Troller vs Aliss: 82.67% - 17.33%
Heroic Troller vs chuva de perereca: 83.79% - 16.209999999999994%
Nails vs FriendOfMrGolem120: 51.92% - 48.08%
Nails vs Amaranth: 56.84% - 43.16%
Nails vs Serpi: 59.34% - 40.66%
Nails vs Exiline: 60.0% - 40.0%
Nails vs Mako: 66.67% - 33.33%
Nails vs Hayburner: 77.14% - 22.86%
Nails vs Aliss: 80.6% - 19.400000000000006%
Nails vs chuva de perereca: 81.82% - 18.180000000000007%
FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Amaranth: 54.95% - 45.05%
FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Serpi: 57.47% - 42.53%
FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Exiline: 58.14% - 41.86%
FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Mako: 64.94% - 35.06%
FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Hayburner: 75.76% - 24.239999999999995%
FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Aliss: 79.37% - 20.629999999999995%
FriendOfMrGolem120 vs chuva de perereca: 80.65% - 19.349999999999994%
Amaranth vs Serpi: 52.56% - 47.44%
Amaranth vs Exiline: 53.25% - 46.75%
Amaranth vs Mako: 60.29% - 39.71%
Amaranth vs Hayburner: 71.93% - 28.069999999999993%
Amaranth vs Aliss: 75.93% - 24.069999999999993%
Amaranth vs chuva de perereca: 77.36% - 22.64%
Serpi vs Exiline: 50.69% - 49.31%
Serpi vs Mako: 57.81% - 42.19%
Serpi vs Hayburner: 69.81% - 30.189999999999998%
Serpi vs Aliss: 74.0% - 26.0%
Serpi vs chuva de perereca: 75.51% - 24.489999999999995%
Exiline vs Mako: 57.14% - 42.86%
Exiline vs Hayburner: 69.23% - 30.769999999999996%
Exiline vs Aliss: 73.47% - 26.53%
Exiline vs chuva de perereca: 75.0% - 25.0%
Mako vs Hayburner: 62.79% - 37.21%
Mako vs Aliss: 67.5% - 32.5%
Mako vs chuva de perereca: 69.23% - 30.769999999999996%
Hayburner vs Aliss: 55.18% - 44.82%
Hayburner vs chuva de perereca: 57.15% - 42.85%
Aliss vs chuva de perereca: 52.0% - 48.0%
Heroic Troller: 6.1049 - 2.8951000000000002
Nails: 5.8088 - 3.1912000000000003
FriendOfMrGolem120: 5.6398 - 3.3602
Amaranth: 5.1933 - 3.8067
Serpi: 4.9583 - 4.0417
Exiline: 4.8952 - 4.1048
Mako: 4.23 - 4.77
Hayburner: 3.0619 - 5.9381
Aliss: 2.6329 - 6.367100000000001
chuva de perereca: 2.4748 - 6.5252

Fear vs Conflict: 53.04% - 46.96%
Fear vs Jimmy Turtwig: 55.96% - 44.04%
Fear vs lax: 58.09% - 41.91%
Fear vs TC: 67.78% - 32.22%
Fear vs Zokuru: 68.54% - 31.459999999999994%
Fear vs Kenix: 69.32% - 30.680000000000007%
Fear vs choolio: 70.12% - 29.879999999999995%
Fear vs GarayOak: 71.76% - 28.239999999999995%
Fear vs soulgazer: 87.14% - 12.86%
Conflict vs Jimmy Turtwig: 52.94% - 47.06%
Conflict vs lax: 55.1% - 44.9%
Conflict vs TC: 65.06% - 34.94%
Conflict vs Zokuru: 65.85% - 34.150000000000006%
Conflict vs Kenix: 66.67% - 33.33%
Conflict vs choolio: 67.5% - 32.5%
Conflict vs GarayOak: 69.23% - 30.769999999999996%
Conflict vs soulgazer: 85.71% - 14.290000000000006%
Jimmy Turtwig vs lax: 52.17% - 47.83%
Jimmy Turtwig vs TC: 62.34% - 37.66%
Jimmy Turtwig vs Zokuru: 63.16% - 36.84%
Jimmy Turtwig vs Kenix: 64.0% - 36.0%
Jimmy Turtwig vs choolio: 64.87% - 35.129999999999995%
Jimmy Turtwig vs GarayOak: 66.66% - 33.34%
Jimmy Turtwig vs soulgazer: 84.21% - 15.790000000000006%
lax vs TC: 60.27% - 39.73%
lax vs Zokuru: 61.11% - 38.89%
lax vs Kenix: 61.97% - 38.03%
lax vs choolio: 62.86% - 37.14%
lax vs GarayOak: 64.7% - 35.3%
lax vs soulgazer: 83.02% - 16.980000000000004%
TC vs Zokuru: 50.88% - 49.12%
TC vs Kenix: 51.79% - 48.21%
TC vs choolio: 52.73% - 47.27%
TC vs GarayOak: 54.71% - 45.29%
TC vs soulgazer: 76.31% - 23.689999999999998%
Zokuru vs Kenix: 50.91% - 49.09%
Zokuru vs choolio: 51.85% - 48.15%
Zokuru vs GarayOak: 53.84% - 46.16%
Zokuru vs soulgazer: 75.67% - 24.33%
Kenix vs choolio: 50.94% - 49.06%
Kenix vs GarayOak: 52.94% - 47.06%
Kenix vs soulgazer: 75.0% - 25.0%
choolio vs GarayOak: 51.99% - 48.01%
choolio vs soulgazer: 74.28% - 25.72%
GarayOak vs soulgazer: 72.73% - 27.269999999999996%
Fear: 6.0175 - 2.9825
Conflict: 5.7501 - 3.2499000000000002
Jimmy Turtwig: 5.485 - 3.5149999999999997
lax: 5.2858 - 3.7142
TC: 4.3098 - 4.6902
Zokuru: 4.2274 - 4.7726
Kenix: 4.1422 - 4.8578
choolio: 4.054 - 4.946
GarayOak: 3.8688 - 5.1312
soulgazer: 1.8594 - 7.1406

ABR vs Star: 52.5% - 47.5%
ABR vs Ojama: 56.76% - 43.24%
ABR vs Altina: 58.33% - 41.67%
ABR vs M Dragon: 63.0% - 37.0%
ABR vs johnnyg2: 64.29% - 35.709999999999994%
ABR vs mikmer: 71.59% - 28.409999999999997%
ABR vs Teclis: 77.78% - 22.22%
ABR vs Sadlysius: 82.9% - 17.099999999999994%
ABR vs Jirachee: 87.5% - 12.5%
Star vs Ojama: 54.29% - 45.71%
Star vs Altina: 55.88% - 44.12%
Star vs M Dragon: 60.64% - 39.36%
Star vs johnnyg2: 61.96% - 38.04%
Star vs mikmer: 69.52% - 30.480000000000004%
Star vs Teclis: 76.0% - 24.0%
Star vs Sadlysius: 81.43% - 18.569999999999993%
Star vs Jirachee: 86.36% - 13.64%
Ojama vs Altina: 51.61% - 48.39%
Ojama vs M Dragon: 56.47% - 43.53%
Ojama vs johnnyg2: 57.83% - 42.17%
Ojama vs mikmer: 65.76% - 34.239999999999995%
Ojama vs Teclis: 72.73% - 27.269999999999996%
Ojama vs Sadlysius: 78.69% - 21.310000000000002%
Ojama vs Jirachee: 84.21% - 15.790000000000006%
Altina vs M Dragon: 54.88% - 45.12%
Altina vs johnnyg2: 56.25% - 43.75%
Altina vs mikmer: 64.29% - 35.709999999999994%
Altina vs Teclis: 71.43% - 28.569999999999993%
Altina vs Sadlysius: 77.59% - 22.409999999999997%
Altina vs Jirachee: 83.33% - 16.67%
M Dragon vs johnnyg2: 51.39% - 48.61%
M Dragon vs mikmer: 59.68% - 40.32%
M Dragon vs Teclis: 67.28% - 32.72%
M Dragon vs Sadlysius: 74.0% - 26.0%
M Dragon vs Jirachee: 80.43% - 19.569999999999993%
johnnyg2 vs mikmer: 58.34% - 41.66%
johnnyg2 vs Teclis: 66.04% - 33.959999999999994%
johnnyg2 vs Sadlysius: 72.92% - 27.08%
johnnyg2 vs Jirachee: 79.54% - 20.459999999999994%
mikmer vs Teclis: 58.14% - 41.86%
mikmer vs Sadlysius: 65.79% - 34.209999999999994%
mikmer vs Jirachee: 73.52% - 26.480000000000004%
Teclis vs Sadlysius: 58.06% - 41.94%
Teclis vs Jirachee: 66.66% - 33.34%
Sadlysius vs Jirachee: 59.08% - 40.92%
ABR: 6.1464 - 2.8536
Star: 5.9357 - 3.0643000000000002
Ojama: 5.5625 - 3.4375
Altina: 5.4195 - 3.5805
M Dragon: 4.978 - 4.022
johnnyg2: 4.8512 - 4.1488
mikmer: 4.0828 - 4.9172
Teclis: 3.3531 - 5.6469000000000005
Sadlysius: 2.6771 - 6.322900000000001
Jirachee: 1.9936 - 7.0064

Tamahome vs DeepBlueC: 56.25% - 43.75%
Tamahome vs Void: 56.76% - 43.24%
Tamahome vs Malekith: 61.77% - 38.23%
Tamahome vs Christo: 64.29% - 35.709999999999994%
Tamahome vs Snøfall: 66.32% - 33.68000000000001%
Tamahome vs mael: 67.74% - 32.260000000000005%
Tamahome vs Sakito: 73.25% - 26.75%
Tamahome vs Kristyl: 76.83% - 23.17%
Tamahome vs 100percentpureheat: 88.73% - 11.269999999999996%
DeepBlueC vs Void: 50.52% - 49.48%
DeepBlueC vs Malekith: 55.68% - 44.32%
DeepBlueC vs Christo: 58.33% - 41.67%
DeepBlueC vs Snøfall: 60.5% - 39.5%
DeepBlueC vs mael: 62.02% - 37.98%
DeepBlueC vs Sakito: 68.05% - 31.950000000000003%
DeepBlueC vs Kristyl: 72.06% - 27.939999999999998%
DeepBlueC vs 100percentpureheat: 85.96% - 14.040000000000006%
Void vs Malekith: 55.17% - 44.83%
Void vs Christo: 57.83% - 42.17%
Void vs Snøfall: 60.0% - 40.0%
Void vs mael: 61.54% - 38.46%
Void vs Sakito: 67.6% - 32.400000000000006%
Void vs Kristyl: 71.64% - 28.36%
Void vs 100percentpureheat: 85.71% - 14.290000000000006%
Malekith vs Christo: 52.7% - 47.3%
Malekith vs Snøfall: 54.93% - 45.07%
Malekith vs mael: 56.52% - 43.48%
Malekith vs Sakito: 62.9% - 37.1%
Malekith vs Kristyl: 67.24% - 32.760000000000005%
Malekith vs 100percentpureheat: 82.98% - 17.019999999999996%
Christo vs Snøfall: 52.24% - 47.76%
Christo vs mael: 53.84% - 46.16%
Christo vs Sakito: 60.34% - 39.66%
Christo vs Kristyl: 64.82% - 35.18000000000001%
Christo vs 100percentpureheat: 81.39% - 18.61%
Snøfall vs mael: 51.61% - 48.39%
Snøfall vs Sakito: 58.18% - 41.82%
Snøfall vs Kristyl: 62.75% - 37.25%
Snøfall vs 100percentpureheat: 80.0% - 20.0%
mael vs Sakito: 56.6% - 43.4%
mael vs Kristyl: 61.23% - 38.77%
mael vs 100percentpureheat: 78.95% - 21.049999999999997%
Sakito vs Kristyl: 54.77% - 45.23%
Sakito vs 100percentpureheat: 74.19% - 25.810000000000002%
Kristyl vs 100percentpureheat: 70.37% - 29.629999999999995%
Tamahome: 6.1193 - 2.8807
DeepBlueC: 5.5688 - 3.4311999999999996
Void: 5.5223 - 3.4776999999999996
Malekith: 5.0464 - 3.9536
Christo: 4.7949 - 4.2051
Snøfall: 4.5854 - 4.4146
mael: 4.4351 - 4.5649
Sakito: 3.8203 - 5.1797
Kristyl: 3.3903 - 5.6097
100percentpureheat: 1.7172 - 7.2828

SoulWind vs Finchinator: 52.5% - 47.5%
SoulWind vs dice: 55.26% - 44.74%
SoulWind vs watashi: 60.58% - 39.42%
SoulWind vs GaryTheGengar: 62.37% - 37.63%
SoulWind vs elodin: 70.0% - 30.0%
SoulWind vs Crucify: 70.79% - 29.209999999999994%
SoulWind vs Gilbert arenas: 70.79% - 29.209999999999994%
SoulWind vs peng: 84.0% - 16.0%
SoulWind vs Stareal: 88.73% - 11.269999999999996%
Finchinator vs dice: 52.78% - 47.22%
Finchinator vs watashi: 58.16% - 41.84%
Finchinator vs GaryTheGengar: 60.0% - 40.0%
Finchinator vs elodin: 67.86% - 32.14%
Finchinator vs Crucify: 68.68% - 31.319999999999993%
Finchinator vs Gilbert arenas: 68.68% - 31.319999999999993%
Finchinator vs peng: 82.61% - 17.39%
Finchinator vs Stareal: 87.69% - 12.310000000000002%
dice vs watashi: 55.44% - 44.56%
dice vs GaryTheGengar: 57.3% - 42.7%
dice vs elodin: 65.39% - 34.61%
dice vs Crucify: 66.24% - 33.760000000000005%
dice vs Gilbert arenas: 66.24% - 33.760000000000005%
dice vs peng: 80.96% - 19.040000000000006%
dice vs Stareal: 86.44% - 13.560000000000002%
watashi vs GaryTheGengar: 51.9% - 48.1%
watashi vs elodin: 60.29% - 39.71%
watashi vs Crucify: 61.2% - 38.8%
watashi vs Gilbert arenas: 61.2% - 38.8%
watashi vs peng: 77.36% - 22.64%
watashi vs Stareal: 83.67% - 16.33%
GaryTheGengar vs elodin: 58.46% - 41.54%
GaryTheGengar vs Crucify: 59.38% - 40.62%
GaryTheGengar vs Gilbert arenas: 59.38% - 40.62%
GaryTheGengar vs peng: 76.0% - 24.0%
GaryTheGengar vs Stareal: 82.61% - 17.39%
elodin vs Crucify: 50.94% - 49.06%
elodin vs Gilbert arenas: 50.94% - 49.06%
elodin vs peng: 69.23% - 30.769999999999996%
elodin vs Stareal: 77.14% - 22.86%
Crucify vs Gilbert arenas: 50.0% - 50.0%
Crucify vs peng: 68.42% - 31.58%
Crucify vs Stareal: 76.47% - 23.53%
Gilbert arenas vs peng: 68.42% - 31.58%
Gilbert arenas vs Stareal: 76.47% - 23.53%
peng vs Stareal: 59.99% - 40.01%
SoulWind: 6.1502 - 2.8498
Finchinator: 5.9395 - 3.0605
dice: 5.6995 - 3.3005000000000004
watashi: 5.2144 - 3.7855999999999996
GaryTheGengar: 5.0426 - 3.9574
elodin: 4.2626 - 4.7374
Crucify: 4.1767 - 4.8233
Gilbert arenas: 4.1767 - 4.8233
peng: 2.5298 - 6.4702
Stareal: 1.8079 - 7.1921

xray vs CrashinBoomBang: 53.39% - 46.61%
xray vs Raptor: 58.33% - 41.67%
xray vs jonfilch: 59.43% - 40.57%
xray vs Lusa: 64.29% - 35.709999999999994%
xray vs Luigi: 65.63% - 34.370000000000005%
xray vs erz: 67.02% - 32.980000000000004%
xray vs Santu: 72.41% - 27.590000000000003%
xray vs Persephone: 85.14% - 14.86%
xray vs Vileman: 85.14% - 14.86%
CrashinBoomBang vs Raptor: 55.0% - 45.0%
CrashinBoomBang vs jonfilch: 56.12% - 43.88%
CrashinBoomBang vs Lusa: 61.11% - 38.89%
CrashinBoomBang vs Luigi: 62.5% - 37.5%
CrashinBoomBang vs erz: 63.95% - 36.05%
CrashinBoomBang vs Santu: 69.62% - 30.379999999999995%
CrashinBoomBang vs Persephone: 83.34% - 16.659999999999997%
CrashinBoomBang vs Vileman: 83.34% - 16.659999999999997%
Raptor vs jonfilch: 51.14% - 48.86%
Raptor vs Lusa: 56.25% - 43.75%
Raptor vs Luigi: 57.7% - 42.3%
Raptor vs erz: 59.21% - 40.79%
Raptor vs Santu: 65.22% - 34.78%
Raptor vs Persephone: 80.36% - 19.64%
Raptor vs Vileman: 80.36% - 19.64%
jonfilch vs Lusa: 55.13% - 44.87%
jonfilch vs Luigi: 56.58% - 43.42%
jonfilch vs erz: 58.11% - 41.89%
jonfilch vs Santu: 64.18% - 35.81999999999999%
jonfilch vs Persephone: 79.63% - 20.370000000000005%
jonfilch vs Vileman: 79.63% - 20.370000000000005%
Lusa vs Luigi: 51.47% - 48.53%
Lusa vs erz: 53.03% - 46.97%
Lusa vs Santu: 59.32% - 40.68%
Lusa vs Persephone: 76.09% - 23.909999999999997%
Lusa vs Vileman: 76.09% - 23.909999999999997%
Luigi vs erz: 51.56% - 48.44%
Luigi vs Santu: 57.89% - 42.11%
Luigi vs Persephone: 75.0% - 25.0%
Luigi vs Vileman: 75.0% - 25.0%
erz vs Santu: 56.36% - 43.64%
erz vs Persephone: 73.82% - 26.180000000000007%
erz vs Vileman: 73.82% - 26.180000000000007%
Santu vs Persephone: 68.58% - 31.42%
Santu vs Vileman: 68.58% - 31.42%
Persephone vs Vileman: 50.0% - 50.0%
xray: 6.1078 - 2.8922
CrashinBoomBang: 5.8158 - 3.1841999999999997
Raptor: 5.3691 - 3.6308999999999996
jonfilch: 5.2657 - 3.7343
Lusa: 4.7923 - 4.2077
Luigi: 4.6558 - 4.3442
erz: 4.5112 - 4.4888
Santu: 3.9217 - 5.0783000000000005
Persephone: 2.2804 - 6.7196
Vileman: 2.2804 - 6.7196

Welli0u vs Punny: 52.1% - 47.9%
Welli0u vs Relous: 55.86% - 44.14%
Welli0u vs z0mOG: 60.19% - 39.81%
Welli0u vs Charmflash: 62.62% - 37.38%
Welli0u vs ima: 63.92% - 36.08%
Welli0u vs frisoeva: 72.09% - 27.909999999999997%
Welli0u vs Jytcampbell: 77.5% - 22.5%
Welli0u vs Skypenguin: 78.48% - 21.519999999999996%
Welli0u vs London Beats: 86.11% - 13.89%
Punny vs Relous: 53.77% - 46.23%
Punny vs z0mOG: 58.16% - 41.84%
Punny vs Charmflash: 60.64% - 39.36%
Punny vs ima: 61.96% - 38.04%
Punny vs frisoeva: 70.37% - 29.629999999999995%
Punny vs Jytcampbell: 76.0% - 24.0%
Punny vs Skypenguin: 77.02% - 22.980000000000004%
Punny vs London Beats: 85.07% - 14.930000000000007%
Relous vs z0mOG: 54.45% - 45.55%
Relous vs Charmflash: 56.98% - 43.02%
Relous vs ima: 58.33% - 41.67%
Relous vs frisoeva: 67.12% - 32.879999999999995%
Relous vs Jytcampbell: 73.14% - 26.86%
Relous vs Skypenguin: 74.24% - 25.760000000000005%
Relous vs London Beats: 83.05% - 16.950000000000003%
z0mOG vs Charmflash: 52.56% - 47.44%
z0mOG vs ima: 53.95% - 46.05%
z0mOG vs frisoeva: 63.07% - 36.93%
z0mOG vs Jytcampbell: 69.49% - 30.510000000000005%
z0mOG vs Skypenguin: 70.69% - 29.310000000000002%
z0mOG vs London Beats: 80.39% - 19.61%
Charmflash vs ima: 51.39% - 48.61%
Charmflash vs frisoeva: 60.65% - 39.35%
Charmflash vs Jytcampbell: 67.28% - 32.72%
Charmflash vs Skypenguin: 68.52% - 31.480000000000004%
Charmflash vs London Beats: 78.72% - 21.28%
ima vs frisoeva: 59.32% - 40.68%
ima vs Jytcampbell: 66.04% - 33.959999999999994%
ima vs Skypenguin: 67.3% - 32.7%
ima vs London Beats: 77.77% - 22.230000000000004%
frisoeva vs Jytcampbell: 57.15% - 42.85%
frisoeva vs Skypenguin: 58.54% - 41.46%
frisoeva vs London Beats: 70.58% - 29.42%
Jytcampbell vs Skypenguin: 51.42% - 48.58%
Jytcampbell vs London Beats: 64.27% - 35.730000000000004%
Skypenguin vs London Beats: 62.96% - 37.04%
Welli0u: 6.0887 - 2.9112999999999998
Punny: 5.909 - 3.091
Relous: 5.5767 - 3.4233000000000002
z0mOG: 5.1735 - 3.8265000000000002
Charmflash: 4.9376 - 4.0624
ima: 4.8089 - 4.1911
frisoeva: 3.9364 - 5.0636
Jytcampbell: 3.2909 - 5.709099999999999
Skypenguin: 3.1676 - 5.8324
London Beats: 2.1108 - 6.889200000000001
 
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64 Squares vs Separation
Luthier vs Beatiful
MichaelderBeste2 vs Eternal Spirit
Trosko
vs Samqian
Corazan vs Insult
Talah
vs Tace
TJ vs Mncmt
Devin
vs 1 True Lycan
Bihi vs Strom Zone
Ajna vs Leo
Ox
vs Ruby
MUM vs HSA
robjr
vs LNumbers
bro fist vs Gefährlicher Random
Mind Gaming vs Niko
 

McMeghan

Dreamcatcher
is a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Top Tiering Contributor Alumnusis an Administrator Alumnusis a Dedicated Tournament Host Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis the 5th Smogon Classic Winneris the Smogon Tour Season 14 Championis a defending SPL Championis a Past SPL Champion
Big Chungus Winner
Week 1 Predicts results: 19/37; gonna try to keep posting those short predicts every weeks for fun, I'm also gonna colorize my personal highlights
Congregation of the Classiest (3) vs (7) Circus Maximus Tigers

SS OU: 64 Squares vs Separation - both players had good showings week 1 imo, cool game
SS OU: Luthier vs beatiful
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs Eternal Spirit
SM OU: London Beats vs Charmflash
ORAS OU: erz vs jonfilch
BW OU: SoulWind vs Finchinator - banger
DPP OU: snøfall vs Tamahome
ADV OU: johnnyg2 vs Teclis - banger, Teclis was impressive in the first week
GSC OU: Garay oak vs Zokuru
RBY OU: Mako vs Amaranth

Wi-Fi Wolfpack (6)
vs (4) Ever Grande BIGS

SS OU: Trosko vs Samqian
SS OU: Corazan vs INSULT
SS OU: talah vs Tace
SM OU: Relous vs z0mOG - i like zom's team choices in SM
ORAS OU: Persephone vs Vileman
BW OU: GaryTheGengar vs watashi - banger, voting wata for his killer w1 game
DPP OU: Void vs mael
ADV OU: Star vs Altina - banger, but Altina has to clean up his endgame, last week was disapointing
GSC OU: soulgazer vs lax - gonna like this showdown of newschool GSC
RBY OU: Nails vs Hayburner

Team Raiders (5) vs (5) Cryonicles

SS OU: TJ vs mncmt
SS OU: devin vs 1 True Lycan - i love this matchup, thought both had a great week 1 showing even tho devin's endgame was dicey
SS OU: BIHI vs Storm Zone
SM OU: Punny vs Lusa - banger, Lusa's current form is impressive
ORAS OU: xray vs Spl4sh
BW OU: elodin vs Stareal
DPP OU: H.M.N.I.P vs Kristyl
ADV OU: Sadlysius vs Ojama
GSC OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Conflict
RBY OU: Aliss vs Exiline

Alpha Ruiners (6) vs (4) Dragonspiral Tyrants

SS OU: Ajna vs Leo
SS OU: Ox the Fox vs Rubyblood
SS OU: MAX UND MAX vs HSA - think MAX can/should do much better than week 1
SM OU: Skypenguin vs frisoeva
ORAS OU: Luigi vs Santu
BW OU: dice vs Gilbert arenas - nice
DPP OU: Malekith vs Christo
ADV OU: M Dragon vs ABR
GSC OU: Kenix vs TC - both are in great form, love this matchup
RBY OU: chuva de perereca vs FriendOfMrGolem120
 

Vulpix03

is a Tiering Contributoris a Forum Moderator Alumnus
RUPL Champion
Oras write ups since I'm bored at work.

erz vs Jonfilch: I think Jon has been the more dominant oras player as of late. His stour run was impressive (in oras) and he is more motivated then I've ever seen him. Against Luigi he had some misplays but ultimately won a messy game with a sub par mu. Erz got a pretty bad mu week one and I wasn't a huge fan of his team, as I think the dia/volc/serp screens are a bit outdated. I expect erz to default to a balance with some gimmicky picks to try and catch Jon off guard. If Jon sharpens up his play a bit he should ultimately win though.

Persephone vs Vileman:
IMG_9878.jpg
cbb did indeed bring a chesnaught team and vileman capitalized. After an unlucky flinch on volcarona vileman called out cbbs greed pursuit and ended up soloing with Zapdos. Overall I think vileman played "fine". He made the obvious plays and didn't do anything spectacular, although since he had a favorable mu and cbb didn't play to his usual standards vileman didn't have to do anything spectacular. Persephone played a poor game imo. Volc was great into his team and he didn't capitalize on the mistakes made by his opp, ultimately losing. I also disliked the team he brought. In the end I think this game will be decided in the builder. Vileman brought a Jon filch team so I am unsure of he has the long term support he will require to have a successful season. Pers imo will bring some crack after losing with a very trosko looking team, so I expect him to win on mu.

xray vs Spl4sh: xray is coming off of a loss to Santu. With a bad mu he outplayed Santu and brought it down to a clefable calm mind war. Spl4sh beat pers in his debut, making some suboptimal plays but ultimately winning with a good mu. All in all I think it's impossible to not bold xray. He is a much more proven player and will take advantage of misplays to overcome bad mus. Spl4sh is someone who I could see sneaking in a 5-4 record this season as I think he has a good grasp of the metagame, but he'll have to sharpen his play a bit.

Luigi vs Santu: This is purely gut feeling. Both played pretty bad week one and Luigi also brought a trash team. Santu has abr support and is historically the better player in my eyes, however I think Luigi will do some reflecting in the builder and come up with some sauce to overcome Santu.

CrashinBoomBang vs Raptor

xray: proud of his country that 4 out of 10 oras starters in spl are german
the german oras starters:
ORAS OU: Vileman vs CrashinBoomBang
ORAS OU: Spl4sh vs Persephone
ORAS OU: Raptor vs erz
ORAS OU: Santu vs xray
 
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I will only do oldgens bc i don't know well the ST tiers, but don't take me seriously, i'm don't know that much players form Smogon

Congregation of the Classiest (0) vs (0) Circus Maximus Tigers



BW OU: SoulWind vs Finchinator HL of the tier, i hope they will bring good teams and not stupid HO or cheese. Very even but SW is the best in the tier
DPP OU: snøfall vs Tamahome seems also even, But i heard that tama is good, but snofall did a good spl record last spl iirc
ADV OU: johnnyg2 vs Teclis Results
GSC OU: Garay oak vs Zokuru didn't see garay's game, but i did for zok
RBY OU: Mako vs Amaranth idk

Wi-Fi Wolfpack (0) vs (0) Ever Grande BIGS


BW OU: GaryTheGengar vs watashi seems evenish
DPP OU: Void vs mael i don't know void that much, so i prefer mael here
ADV OU: Star vs Altina altina did good in callous, but star did good in spl iirc, and altina lost after saying that his opp wa a pussy so, tsé
GSC OU: soulgazer vs lax rly don't know
RBY OU: Nails vs Hayburner

Team Raiders (0) vs (0) Cryonicles


BW OU: elodin vs Stareal seems even
DPP OU: H.M.N.I.P vs Kristyl didn't see HMNIP playing, but iirc, Krystyl is good
ADV OU: Sadlysius vs Ojama ojama won, but sadly almost won vs abr so seems even, but i tend to prefer ojama here
GSC OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Conflict both could win, but conflict is rly good in gsc
RBY OU: Aliss vs Exiline
Both are pretty good, but the only desire that exceed aliss's desire to be stupid is my desire to post this ratio, so i think exiline will win, (but still a bit even since rby is rby) .


BW OU: dice vs Gilbert arenas i'd say dice is better here, but could rly go both ways
DPP OU: Malekith vs Christo i think it's dpp hl, even asf (imo)
ADV OU: M Dragon vs ABR Another hl, hype, but ABR gud
GSC OU: Kenix vs TC seems evenish, but idk gsc that much
RBY OU: chuva de perereca vs FriendOfMrGolem120 iirc, FOMG is rly good, and idk who's chuva de perereca


BW OU: crucify vs peng Both are good, but peng might be better (if he doesn't pick rain with scarf toed)
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Sakito good match, maybe i'd say deepblueC over sakito but even imo
ADV OU: Pheo' vs mikmer rly want to see that game, even.
GSC OU: Jirachee vs Fear Fear is known as the best GSCer iirc.
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Serpi Heroic Troller is goated, but serpi too
 
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