Doing predictions but also wanted to give a huge thank you to
Stone_Cold and
Void for believing me enough to pick me up after the entire Ojama fiasco and to
aim for pushing so much to get me in the first place. Even though we didn't get to the playoffs, I had a ton of fun on the BIGs and hope to team with you guys again sometime.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (6) vs (6) Alpha Ruiners
SS OU: TDK vs
FLCL - This was my closest game of the week for either matchup, these are two really high level players that have put up solid performances this tour and I could see this going either way. I'm gonna favor the hotter hand in FLCL here, he's had some incredible recent performances, outplaying the hell out of people left and right, and he's had a better tour overall.
SS OU:
CTC vs mncmt - As much as people rag on CTC, he still has a storied past as a player, and I'm a hell of a lot more likely to favor him than someone who's only had one game this tour and is super unproven overall, and even moreso in high pressure situations. Looking forward to seeing the offensive battalion that CTC whips up in preparation for this game.
SS OU: Christo vs
Empo - Christo's been an absolute beast this tour, but I feel like Empo has really been rounding into form these last few weeks, scoring 3 wins in a row and an especially impressive one over bro fist, who many people consider to be the top SS OU player. Christo has looked really good from a technical standpoint this SPL, but I feel like he tends to crutch on certain mons, and Empo is going to be able to exploit that in the teambuilder to give himself a good advantage before the game coupled with his playing ability.
SS DOU: marilli vs
qsns - Honestly, if this was at the end of week 4, it would have been an easy bold for marilli, but qsns has some impressive wins against top guys like SMB under his belt and he's on a roll right now, albeit with some dubious assistance in his week 8 victory.
SS LC:
Luthier vs jake - Another insanely tight game, it's really hard to imagine jake losing to the same guy 3 times in a row, but I have to stick by my "Indians are jake's cryoptonite" theory, and regardless Luthier is on fucking fire right now, racking up 6 wins in a row and doesn't look to be slowing down, even if he's playing on other people's alts.
SM OU:
blunder vs Gondra - Gondra is way hotter than blunder right now, but come on this is fucking blunder we're talking about. Regardless of what people say, he's a top player, and he's back in SM OU on top of that. I think people are definitely having a bit of recency bias predicting this game and not considering that blunder's got the experience and playing ability to take this one.
ORAS OU:
CrashinBoomBang vs xImRaptor - CBB had a disappointing start to this SPL, but has come roaring back in recent weeks, having an epiphany after his loss to Santu, and rattling off 4 wins in a row. On the other hand, Raptor has had more of a steady SPL, finishing with a solid 6-3 record and a lot of impressive wins. I'm going to go with both the hot hand and the experienced playoff performer in CBB here, we saw the havoc he could wreak in high pressure situations during WCOP playoffs, and I don't see things going any different here.
BW OU: John W vs
Caetano93 - THE DOCTOR IS IN OML, both guys have had near average performances, but I've gotta pick the doctor here. Both guys are good friends and great guys that I'm happy to see doing well, but I think that Caetano has a much higher ceiling and he's got more experience, seeing as he played during WCOP. With that extra experience combined with his unorthodox ideas and high playing ceiling, I give Caetano a slight edge here.
DPP OU:
The Grand Babido vs Emeral - Heist has been a god this tour whereas Emeral has had a pretty middling performance. Most longtime DPP players have a higher opinion of the guy than the general public, but I don't think Emeral is going to be able to overcome his nerves and take down an all time great in such a high pressure situation given the difference in their performances up to this point.
ADV OU:
Gilbert arenas vs Alexander. - Both guys have been pretty fire, but I'm just a bit higher on marcop's playing ability overall, he's got a very distinctive style that focuses on maximizing his wincons while also making timely, aggressive plays to punish the opponent, and I think that naturally does well against someone who's as aggressive as Alex. Very close game that could ultimately be decided when marcop loses his mind and rolls up with Delibird for absolutely no reason.
GSC OU: gorgie vs
FriendOfMrGolem120 - Both players have had strong SPLs so far, with gorgie finally showing that he indeed has it all and FOMG cementing his place as a high level GSC player, so this is sure to be a great game. FOMG has the prior results for me to trust, with an incredibly impressive playoffs win against Lavos during his 4-1 WCOP campaign and I feel like he's played a bit more solid overall this tour, so I'm going to be favoring him here.
RBY OU:
Heroic Troller vs Hyogafodex - Hardly think this needs an explanation
Cryonicles (6)
vs (6) Congregation of the Classiest
SS OU: Sacri' vs
suapah - I think Sacri's quite good, and I think his record is right at where I evaluate him skill-wise, but I feel like proclaiming him as being THE BEST player in SS OU is a bit of a jump. On the other hand, suapah has been on absolute fire this SPL, putting up an impressive 7-2 record against arguably the hardest strength of schedule in the entire tour, and I see him keeping the momentum going here.
SS OU:
obii vs blarghlfarghl - Admittedly this is a bit biased from knowing obii, but I feel like blargh is exactly the type of guy that obii can beat. I expect obii to put an absurd amount of effort into preparing the best counterteam that he can come up with, likely with assistance from the vaunted jerk. Blargh's playstyle is likely based on how he feels during games combined with what he perceives his winpath as and is less calculated than that of guys like ABR and John, and I think that obii's got the ability to punish slightly suboptimal lines when playing at his best, so I'm going to pick obii in what's apparently an enormous upset.
SS OU: Updated Kanto vs
Insult - Insult has been an absolute madman this SPL, putting up a 6-3 record and is back on a roll after some mid-tour struggles, and he's hot off of winning two sets in a row against Tricking, who looked unstoppable at the time, in the SS release invitational tour. I think that Insult's just got a lot more momentum behind him and has more solid team choices as a whole, so I'll take him to win this one.
SS DOU: Tman vs
stax - Stax has been on fire this SPL, putting up an absurd 7-2 record and has significantly more experience on his resume. I'm no doubles savant, but in a tier I don't know a ton about I'm always going to favor the guy with both a better resume and a better current tour.
SS LC:
ggggd vs Serene Grace - Serene's got like 6 million wins in a row, but pablo hasn't dropped a fucking game all tour, so I'd be an idiot to pick against him here.
SM OU:
Eo Ut Mortus vs Relous - Prior to this tour, this game would actually be pretty close, considering that Relous was coming off of a nice performance in snake. However, he's looked like a shell of his former self this SPL and Eo has done Eo things, taking down the seemingly unstoppable Well among other strong players, and I think that the current SM OU metagame is perfectly suited for his playstyle. This game looks like a wash honestly and it'll be really surprising if it goes otherwise.
ORAS OU: Garay oak vs
Persephone - This game's honestly a toss up to me, but I'll favor Pers's innovation over Garay's reliance on fairly orthodox and known teams in a playoff format where prep is going to be a pretty big factor for who wins.
BW OU:
Finchinator vs Raiza - Finch is actually surprisingly clutch in playoff situations, at least during WCOP, and is having a pretty typical SPL for his standards, so I expect him to take care of business against a struggling Raiza, who's had a fairly poor SPL between being super unlucky and too predictable with his teamchoices.
DPP OU:
soulgazer vs Excal - I'm very high on Excal, but sg is going to get an incredible amount of support from osgoode this week and he's had a ton of experience over the years. I think that Excal can definitely take this one, but he'll have to play out of his mind and avoid the DPP bot simultaneously, which is a pretty daunting task for someone in their first SPL.
ADV OU: z0mOG vs
Tamahome - Tama has been incredible this SPL, and going 3-1 in both DPP and ADV, and he's number one on the all time team tour wins sheet for a reason. z0m's had a better SPL record-wise, but I feel like Tama has still played more solid overall and I've gotta favor his experience and numerous clutch performances over the years in such a high pressure situation.
GSC OU: Mr.E vs
KratosMana - Going into the tour, I thought that anti would do better than his record, but nothing near what he's achieved so far. He's played like a man possessed, notching key wins against top players like McMeghan and FOMG as well as taking down dice with the season on the line. I think Mr.E is better than his record indicates and could easily pull a 6-3 in SPL if he got over his defeatist mentality, but I'm not going to pick against anti, with him playing as well as he has.
RBY OU:
HML am vs Amaranth - I think that TIN is probably a hair better than HML, but he's cursed after the super cocky post he made following the Classiest's qualification for playoffs so that'll split the difference.
Others have already predicted an LC tiebreak, so I figured I'd do another take on what I think is more likely here. I think that the cryos obviously have a very high chance of picking LC in tiebreak, as pablo's had an absurd SPL thus far, but I think the Cryos are going to go for their veterans in the tiebreak over the hot hand. Going with "the hot hand" has backfired a lot in past SPLs, such as when the Wolfpack chose ORAS against the Raiders and when the Tyrants put in z0mOG over blunder, both in SPL 9. So, they're going to put Finch in his home tier and the Classiest would pick ADV, with Tama having a sizable advantage against whoever he faces.
Tiebreak:
SS OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs
suapah - This game was really hard to call and even though I place a lot of weight on experience in my predicts, what suapah has done this SPL is undeniable and I'm going to bold him against every name he goes up against until proven otherwise.
BW OU: Finchinator vs
KratosMana - I really wanted to bold Finch here with how well he's done all SPL, but anti has been a ball of fire this SPL and he's come up clutch in numerous high pressure situations, accentuated by his win against dice last week that was basically as pressure packed as game 3 of a tiebreak to make or break the season. Finch is no stranger to coming up big in clutch situations, being 2-0 against US West in WCOP playoffs, but I've just gotta favor anti here, regardless of the tier.
ADV OU: soulgazer vs
Tamahome - I think if this matchup were to happen, the Cryos would probably put in sg over z0m because he's got a lot more tenure around here and just
feels more like a tiebreak player. Pretty silly reasoning, but it's mostly off of my gut. Obviously I favor Tama in this game, but sg is no slouch and he could definitely pull off the upset here.
