Tournament OMPL X - Commencement

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UT

Roaring 20s, tossing pennies in the pool
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je suis mamp. je suis heureux d'avoir été repêché par la famille wiggly. j'espère que je réussis bien dans les hackmons équilibrés. bonne chance à tous!
“I am mom. I am happy to have been drafted by the wiggly family. I hope I do well in balanced hackmons. good luck to everyone!”

For any non-French speakers out there.
 

Redflix

Forgiven and Hanged
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Redflix's Power Rankings

Uh-Oh Kommo-Os

Expected line up:

2v2itchy
AAAavyrie / lily
AGballfire / nevelle
BHa loser
GGivar 57 / teamcharm
MnMzesty
NFES1nn0hC0nfirm3d
STABlbdc

Upset by the fact that he went undrafted for bh last year, willdbeast decided to buy all the bh players this ompl and boy did it not go well for them. With no starpower in their lineup , the kommo-os suffer from a lack of support in most of their slots, something that could've been avoided if they didnt see this draft as "who gets the most players". Aside from BH, NFE and 2v2 have the ability to go positive but between sinnoh being inconsistent and 2v2 being a very tough pool , its gonna be a lot more difficult to do so. Their rest of the roster however looks very mid with their starters always having an uphill mu vs every team. I would mention, though, that all of them have potential to upset big names but whether they are able to do so is yet to be seen.

Key Notes:-
  • Loser has the support to recreate his last year's ompl record. However , with an arguably tougher pool and taking his inactivity into question, BH might not be a guaranteed win for the team who decided to spend 36.5k on the slot.
  • longhiep has been hyped up as a very proficient GG builder. Will that be enough to push their GG slot to a positive record ?
  • Zesty is making a comeback in mnm after quite a few years but with no support and the potential rust, him coming back to his OMPL VI form is looking unlikely. Whose the kommo-os backup mnm option if zesty crashes?
Hammered Hawluchas

Expected line up:

2v2Vrji
AAAchew / lydia
AGbaconeatinassassin
BHtttech
GGdr phd bj
MnMlydia / iapt
NFEmirbro / jonfinch
STABPA

Hawluchas, after self buying both their managers , decided to buy 2 more heavyweights in bacon and vrji. Unfortunately they also drained half of their budget in doing so. I think this is a very top heavy draft with some glaring weaknesses in the rest. Lydia is probably right behind stresh in mnm skill this year , however she has made it clear plenty of times they are not gonna start mnm for all weeks. Iapt is probably gonna hold the anchor in those weeks , which makes their slot very exploitable as iapt has yet to impress in mnm tours. BH and AAA are also tricky as their starters dont instill much confidence and while lydia can very well support them and even slot herself, whether or not will she able to compete with the tough crowd is gotta be seen. NFE looks solid as compared to the rest with jett's support and im sure their stab slot will atleast get 3 wins with bj and lydia supporting.

Key Notes:-
  • OMGS and GG open winner Dr Phd Bj's only showing in GG in playoffs was a loss to damflame. Against a pool who certainly wont be using public teams (unlike his open opponents), will he able to justify his 20k price?
  • Lydia has to carry 3 slots and will prob have to switch tiers frequently depending on the team mu's. While this certainly can bring great results , this also opens the possibility of burnout which is gonna be dreading for the luchas.
Larping Lopunnies

Expected line up:

2v2mubs
AAAThe number man
AGlotiasite
BHcityscapes
GGlepton
MnMJordy
NFEking leo V
STAB-cotta

The lopunnies surprisingly managed to have a relatively solid draft with great foundation. Their BH. AG and AAA slot can certainly be expected to go positive and city could go even further and recreate their wcoom performance. MnM is also solid and with Derp's support should do well. The one confusing thing and a major error in their draft according to me is their decision to buy leo + lepton. While both are capable of starting and doing well in nfe , leo made it clear plenty of times that he does not want support. This forces them to slot 9k lepton in GG , which may not bring great results. Stab and 2v2 are slots which could go either way imo and with how the pool is , its not unlikely that one of them goes negative. Despite this , i think this team has a lot of potential to make playoffs if things go their way in some of the weeks .

Key Notes:-
  • King Leo 1-IV has a full time job now. Will he able to recreate his past ompl performances or will he crash right back to his wcoom form. If the latter happens , lepton might get their time to shine but with no building support , it becomes a bit tricky.
  • TNM has said that he would miss atleast 1 week. With the quality of subs that play aaa being not so great , The Lopunnies might be put in a fix.
Wiggly Family

Expected Line up:


2v2blanched
AAAmz
AGseldanna
BHmamp
GGeli
MnMhats
NFEtlenit
STABfc

Wigglies and Lopunnies draft tbh is very close but they get #5 as i think in a must win week , i would favor wigglies more due to their flexibility. There's a lot of strong starters in this Line up and i would say MAMP and Fc both have the potential to go X-1 / X-0 in their pool. AG is looking good thanks to Fc's support (or with fc starting and anaconja in stab if the need arises) and 2v2 should go positive too. Their weakest slot is MnM and with almost no support , the wigglies might just start 0-1 every week. MZ with osake is a strong combination and i would expect them to repeat their last ompl performance. GG is a bit of a wild card as i trust both eli and meta to be competent enough but with no support and no past activity within the tier from both , its hard to be confident.

Key Notes:-
  • Wigglies decided to drop 7k on damflame but their roster does not seem to have a starting slot for them. Will they take their chances of him bringing tangrowth and slot him in mnm ?
  • Adding to the above , having 14k left in the end certainly means u tried to conserve money for nothing and not drafting a solid mnm option early might just come back and haunt the team.
  • Tlenit with 85 support is a force to be reckoned with but with no other nfe player and the fact that 85 doesnt want to start , the option of no solid sub for nfe could be a big problem if tlenit gets busy.
  • Do u really win if ur drafted by the frenchies?
Temper Tyrantrums

Expected Line up:

2v2papiloco
AAApandadoux
AGwsun1
BHnihilslave
GGmossy sandwich
MnMqt
NFEstareal
STABfissure

The next three teams are super close imo. While few managers were afraid to spend and were conserving and some were speed running their draft and going broke , OM and Drampa quitely got away with a solid one. Qt in mnm should certainly go positive and i expect the same from the best win% in 2v2 sheet. Wsun is also a good starter for ag from what ive heard and fissure in stab shouldn't need any introduction. Nihilslave is a BH player im super excited to see in action and i think they have the potential to go against the likes of mamp/quojova/city/loser. If by any chance this slot does fail though , qt could easily slot themselves in bh and have ren start in mnm. Stareal is bit of a mixed bag imo cuz i respect his skill and he even has shown to be really good in nfe but somehow his team tour record has always been mid and with no nfe building support this year , its gonna be difficult for him to turn this unfortunate record around. That aside , i think its very likely the trums are gonna keep their streak of qualifying for playoffs alive this ompl as well.

Key Notes:-
  • Panda has expressed publicly how he dislikes the current aaa meta. Even with Qt's support ,The team gotta hope that this doesn't affect his play cuz if panda plays similarly like in his game vs bj , there might be some warning bells for the tyrantrums.
  • Trums got mossy for 10.5k which seems like a little bit of an overpay. Will he be able to justify this price ?
  • No AG and nfe support may end up bothering trums as the tour goes by
Honey Linoones

Expected Line up:


2v2adam3560
AAAsylveon
AGpdt
BHcareer ended
GGjrdn
MnMandyboy
NFEsimbo
STABtrade

The linoones had a clear draft plan which was to unite the members of OMPL VI winning Hotshot Honchkrows and they succeeded in it quite well.
Aside from the broken aesf support they get , the linoones have a very strong MnM, AAA and STAB. I also expect GG to go positive as long as jrdn is a bit free to test teams. 2v2 looks decent too but with no support , i cant exactly call it solid. PDT is a wildcard for sure , the ag pool imo is quite tough and while pdt is more than capable of going positive or even X-1 in that pool , i think him going positive with trade's support is much more likely. Nfe is probably the weak link here and i could easily see mncmt starting it , either ways with no good builder to back up its gonna be a "?" for now.

Key Notes:-
  • This would be the one of the greatest ompl teams if this was 2020. However , since its not , there is a chance we might just see a repeat of fullmetal alcremists of last year.
  • Career Ended went into the draft being arguably the most hyped bh player. Will he be able to translate that into his success is yet to be seen.
Spinda Wheels

Expected Line up


2v2london13
AAAshiloh
AGskarph
BHtea guzzler / stresh
GGgreybaum / tpp
MnMstresh / greybaum
NFEtj
STABFv

As expected ,spindas ended up with a beast of a draft. Stresh in mnm is guaranteed 5 or more wins in regular weeks. They went with the best AG and 2v2 player , which makes sense considering how little stresh and ith can support it. Shiloh going for 15k was such an underpay and i have no doubt that as long as they play , they are going to win. Their NFE slot has a lot of options and as long as stresh supplies teams , it should be good.
Fv is one of the best smogon players and with ith supplying strong stab teams , its a no brainer that this slot will go positive too. How many weeks will fv start remains to be seen though. Bh is a bit of a weak link and GG is one slot where it could go either way as im not sure if greybaum can support it enough.

Key Notes:-
  • As mentioned before , tea guzzler while is good, isnt exactly someone who u would expect to upset the top tier players. While stresh support might change this a little bit , if the bh slot tanks , stresh might have to step in , a thing which i doubt he would be keen to do given how he has stated he dislikes the meta.
  • With these many tours players , Motivation does become a factor. While i dont see this team ever collapsing , it still might affect the team as the tour progresses.
 
WARNING: ACTUAL 2V2 RANKINGS
Do not read if you've already been brainwashed by Itchy and Morgan

To preface, all of the following players are at least decent and have results in some tour or another, otherwise they obviously wouldn't even be drafted. My analysis of the players is contextualized in the fact that this is supposed to be the top of the top of the SS 2v2 pool.
Uh-Oh Kommo-os: Itchy + Reece

Very brave decision to go for Itchy starter with no support, but as many sane people have been doing, I'm doubting that it will work out. Itchy's a player that has only been relevant since very recently, and is the only player on this list with no actual major showing. They did ok in top cut swiss getting quarters, and also did ok in 2v2pl2 and pool league, going a combined 3-3. Neither time playoffs were made and both times it was in BW, not in SS. Reece is similarly new to the scene with basically 0 relevant results; I can understand the idea behind him, but there were simply so many better options in the player pool left, it was really not worth a buy. Over-all its just a very mediocre player that doesnt build SS with no support and a completely new player as an emergency sub.
Hammered Hawluchas: Vrji + yuki + PA

I'm not really sure where the myth that Vrji is a high-end 2v2 player came from, but they are quite overrated. He's never been outstanding or anything and he actually boasts a terrible 2-5 overall team tour record. His saving grace is his 5-0 in OMSL, which I certainly cannot ignore, but of which onlythe wins against papiloco and Morgan were actually impressive, and said papiloco win + the win against Lancer were actually kinda haxed. The silver lining for the team is the fact that Vrji isn't actually gonna be the one playing, but presumably yuki is gonna be the one playing while being fed Vrji teams, which could arguably be even worse for them: I don't like Vrji teams really, some of them are interesting but most of the stuff vrji experiments with ends up being less innovative and more straight up bad. PA is there to just look cool. We'll see how it goes, this team probably has the hardest 2v2 slot to predict.
Malding Mavericks: Chris32156 + Morgan + IBM

These guys had free 2v2 support and were the only ones who actually knew the pool then proceeded to buy one of the most random clickers in the tournament. This guy made 2v2LT1 semis then never played a good tour again. To be fair, Morgan is quite good at spamming brokens and thus claiming against bad players that dont know how to counter them, so he can farm, but Chris with Morgan teams in this tour isnt really gonna farm a lot of the players he'll have to face. IBM is there to look menacing he's never actually been good at 2v2 or like any meta.
Honey Linoones: Adam3560 + Trade(?)

Adam is a very interesting player since he is also a very new face, but he's definitely done more for himself than a lot of other people on this list. He's popped up during pool league as a steal of the porygons and ended up going 3-1 and winning the tour, and then won top cut swiss right after. Only putting him this low cause he got fed teams for a lot of his wins and only started building recently, and his swiss run was not against players of the same caliber as this tour. Good potential, we'll see if adam can build teams that are up to par and doesnt shit the bed when faced with top competitors. Trade is there to look pretty fucker never did anything in 2v2
Larping Lopunnys: zioziotrip + Mubs

zio is broken, one of the only fuckers on the site that understands the game at its core. He can easily build some of the best teams this tour and his playing is very peak. Questioning motivation to keep it up for a whole season I guess, and whether he actually puts in the effort to get back in groove with how the meta is shaped. Only putting them this low cause they're gonna bench zio for Mubs for a while cause tier leader propaganda or something. Mubs isnt bad, he'd still be around 5th on this list if he was alone zio is just so much better.
Spinda Wheels: London13 + Krytocon + berryalcremie

One of the best 2v2 players of all time, I love watching this guy play or playing against him, but he has played SS like never so we'll have to see. Not much to say, cba to list results, the big thing is that the support is bad, the only reason I'm not putting him 1st is because him listening to Kry or berry is gonna be actual sabotage and make him lose weeks.
Temper Tyrantrums: Potatochan + papiloco

Potato is one of the only few idiots who actually innovates the meta instead of throwing out brokens one after the other. He consistently comes up with broken new tech and makes solid teams with them. papiloco is one of the best fed clickers in the game, not much to say. The only problem is Potato coming up with some wack team compositions that lose to some top threat, idk. Realistically I never see this core failing.
Wiggly Family: STABLE + Blanched

id probably but ourselves 2nd just for safety, I've consistently carried people with my building for 2 years now without failing and Blanched won Classic and went 3-1 in pool league. The big problem is just that he never played SS, but that shouldn't be too wild of a change. If Blanched doesn't get owned by generation change then we can comfortably get best 2v2 in the tour, and even if he does shit the bed I can always just take over.
Over-all very strong pool besides the very questionable bottom 2. Will be fun

hf everyone
 
Last edited:

a loser

I'm a loser, baby, so why don't you kill me?
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Here's some things I found interesting while comparing the real draft to the 16 previous mock drafts! Here's a link to the sheet containing all the mock draft and real draft numbers.
Player Name​
# Times Drafted​
# Drafts Eligible​
Average Price​
Actual Price​
% Difference​
Quantum Tesseract16162537522000-13.30%
Sylveon.16162384421500-9.83%
Skarph161621281215001.03%
baconeatinassassin16162084420500-1.65%
Andyboy1616180002000011.11%
Byleth161618344190003.58%
cityscapes16162121918000-15.17%
quojova161617625180002.13%
The Number Man3316667180008.00%
beauts141416000175009.38%
I was surprised to see here that the higher prices didn't come to fruition. Each mock had one or more players go for 24k or more so seeing the top price only be 22k is not what I was expecting at all.
Player Name​
# Times Drafted​
# Drafts Eligible​
Average Price​
Actual Price​
% Difference​
Tea Guzzler151678333500-55.32%
zioziotrip141654643000-45.10%
Redflix161680314500-43.97%
Eli131653083000-43.48%
anaconja161661253500-42.86%
PA161682505000-39.39%
Reece101648503000-38.14%
Zesty437776435000-34.58%
Beka91645563000-34.15%
ojr121645003000-33.33%
I know Redflix didn't sign up for MnM, but this feels like last year's draft with MAMP all over again. We'll see if they end up playing BH or MnM any but I was surprised to see them drop down. Tea Guzzler's drop was definitely helped by the 45k overpay in the last mock draft but I think they'd have made this list regardless (although not at #1)
Player Name​
# Times Drafted​
# Drafts Eligible​
Average Price​
Actual Price​
% Difference​
Meta1013475014000194.75%
Simbo31030006500116.67%
jonfilch13164500800077.78%
OranBerryBlissey10353000500066.67%
WSun11616102811700065.35%
jerryl30911165227850062.61%
TJ161661561000062.44%
Ballfire13155038800058.78%
tlenit15156000950058.33%
Seldanna575200800053.85%
There were a lot more increases in this draft than last year's draft. Last year 47% was the biggest increase from mock to actual and this year that wouldn't have made the list.
Player Name​
# Times Drafted​
# Drafts Eligible​
Average Price​
Actual Price​
% Difference​
baconeatinassassin16162084420500-1.65%
Itchy151655675500-1.20%
TectonicDestroyer1516750075000.00%
TeamCharm25350035000.00%
Stareal16169969100000.31%
Skarph161621281215001.03%
quojova161617625180002.13%
Ren16169750100002.56%
MZ16169750100002.56%
We had two players match their average mock draft price, TectonicDestroyer and TeamCharm! A lot of the prices this year were much closer than last year's draft as well. Maybe doing it 16 times instead of 11 helped the managers hone their prices?

Last year there seemed to be several players not drafted that were fully expecting to be drafted based on mock draft results. This year wasn't quite the same, with only one or two really that didn't get drafted. There were however many more notable players that dropped out of the player pool before the draft. Hope this was interesting to you all like it was to me. Let's have a great OMPL X!
 

cityscapes

Take care of yourself.
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when the mnm/aaa dual main diyer balancecore cybernetically advanced fwg-pilled seasonal winner role pot-smoking song-winposter regen-carried socdem corvposter and her bh main catgirl onyx onix-inspired hyper offense life orb-pilled anti-paralysis deleuzian metacomplainer hyperstition semi-platonic gf going undefeated in the regular season causes beauts to hit the slay button, instantly ohkoing an estimated 300 unplayers in central manhattan
 

OM

It's a starstruck world
is a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
when the mnm/aaa dual main diyer balancecore cybernetically advanced fwg-pilled seasonal winner role pot-smoking song-winposter regen-carried socdem corvposter and her bh main catgirl onyx onix-inspired hyper offense life orb-pilled anti-paralysis deleuzian metacomplainer hyperstition semi-platonic gf going undefeated in the regular season causes beauts to hit the slay button, instantly ohkoing an estimated 300 unplayers in central manhattan
can I get an English translation for this anaconja
 
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