Tournament NUPL X Commencement Thread!

Expulso

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NUPL X Power Rankings
writeups by me Meri Berry and Togkey
rankings by me Meri Berry Togkey Ren-chon poh roxiee GW Finchinator (and maybe others sorry if I forgot u)



TEAM OVERVIEWS
MF PLOOMS
zS has been one of the hottest prospects going into this tournament, holding both of the past 2 seasonal wins over several proven players such as Xiri. However, it is currently unproven how he will do in a team tournament setting, making his rating comparatively low to his theoretical cap. Togkey did really well in NUSD, but they played BW for that tournament and are unproven in current gen. However, they are expected to do fairly well, being one of the most creative builders and a solid and active player of the tier. Test Techles (known better as Young Lilo) is also rather unproven in bigger tournaments, focusing more on individuals and ladder. However, this core will be the most active and in-tune with the meta, meaning they should get a good matchup more often than not.

mncmt is a veteran of NUPL, normally playing in bo3 and playing in SM this year. He went undefeated in SM last year when playing bo3, and he is expected to pull a similarly great performance this year, albeit with less support. Spl4sh is another Brazilian finding their way onto the team and is a solid pilot, but the support that he will get is questionable this tournament. cb aaron judge had a good middling record in NUSD, and is expected to do well enough this year, though it's hard to say he is one of the standouts in an admittedly stronger pool. Beraldinho is one of the best DPP prospects at the moment, winning DPP cup and going 6-1 in NUSD despite his failing team. Raichy is another strong pilot for ADV, and support may be lacking here as well, though Togkey will likely be able to help with their experience in the tier.

This team will be very active and motivated, which can make up a lot of the perceived skill gap that these players have. Even with some unproven players, the potential is there for them to make major upsets with a couple standout slots and good prep work in SS.


The Holy Heliolisk
As Meri and Ren-Chon return to the managing scene, perhaps they learned from their past mistakes; they drafted 0 Brazilians this time around. The Heliolisk(s?) seem to be a very top-heavy roster due to the extreme strength of their 3 best players. Kushalos is consistently one of the most dominant current-gen NUers, putting up records such as a 6-2 performance in SCL – concerns that he’s been away for a while might be mitigated by the fact that his manager Meri was also his testing partner from that SCL. Next, etern slots into SM as clearly one of the strongest players. While there’s always a non-zero possibility that he cancers, his motivation seems rather high at the moment, portending great things for his results in a strong but not overwhelming SM pool. At pricetags of 15K and 17.5K, both players are still somewhat of a steal; you could easily make a case for one or both of them to be the most expensive player in the draft. Finally, HSOWA fills DPP on a 10K retain after going 9-0 last NUPL. His dominance is not certain – he went 3-4 in NUSD and is already 0-1 this tour – but he gives the Heliolisk another very strong slot on paper.

The rest of their lineup isn’t necessarily weak but few slots jump out as a proven commodity with prior success in this tour. OranBerryBlissey and Turtledoggo1 are both new players that build the tier fairly actively; Turtdoggo in particular has been a community mainstay. However, they (to my knowledge) have never played a full regular season of a teamtour, so there’s definitely a possibility they flop in playoffs or a deciding week setting. Both are already 1-0, though, which surely validates the decision to buy them as starters.

Gorex plays ORAS for the Helios, and team support from eternally mitigates the often-heard concern that he recycles teams too much and is thus counterteamable. Gorex finished positive in this tier in both NUSD (4-3) and NUPL (3-0, but also 0-3 in Bo3) which is certainly encouraging. Unknown commodity Annoyer returns to the NU scene after a long hiatus, announcing in his signup post that he went 7-3 in SPL back when BW NU was still a tier there! In a weak pool, he should do well except for the one week he tries to load Gothorita and finds out it’s illegal like 10 minutes before the match. ADV is another strong spot for the Heliolisks; though admittedly in a pool with a lot of strong slots, the combination of Plas’ playing and Roseybear support (with Rosey able to take over if needed) is at least average.

The Heliolisks have a very strong top of the roster between Etern and Kushalos; from there, there are not many weak spots, with the 2 most questionable ones (OBB and Turtdoggo) being active current gen players who are already 1-0. Ranked about the middle of the pool, I can see them easily outperforming this and pushing for a playoff spot, particularly if SS2&3 continue to succeed and ORAS/BW also hover around average or better. On the other hand, Kush or Etern could quickly dwindle in activity after a poor start and Turtdoggo/OBB could start loading up jank. Overall, though, the Heliolisks had a successful draft and will probably have a good tour.


Tailor-made Talonflames
Oathkeeper started his draft with an insane retain of debatably current best SS player OnArceus. Oathkeeper saw OnArceus’ potential as a player early-on, drafting him last NUPL when he was still largely unknown and he went 7-1. Oathkeeper also bought himself as a player, and while he doesn’t have any recent team tour results, Oath has been around long enough to know what he’s doing. GoldCat went about average in the last NUSD, going 3-2 but has great performances in individual tournaments. He’s expected to perform about average again but likely better as he becomes a better player. Elias PSY is.. good xboss? He has his own way of playing the game it seems like, and clear favorite Pokemon, and while its certainly questionable, he manages to net wins consistently, going 5-3 in the last NUSD and having solid individual results. I expect him to be weaker in formats where players can prep for his playstyle, but you can’t ignore skill, which Eli proves he has plenty of.

Clementine has been around oldgens for a while, being one of the ROA leaders, but is a new face in NUPL. Although they are one of the weaker prospects in a very strong SM pool, there is potential for them to perform well. Shaneghoul is an ORAS legend returned from the grave. Whether he’s retained his skills since his “prime” is unknown so far but there’s high hopes for him as he went for 15K; while the price was a surprise, living up to his ranking of #1 in the ORAS pool would make it worth the cost. Bughouse is a oldgen powerhouse with plenty of experience and meta knowledge, especially in gens 4 and 5. He’s sure to provide incredible support and perform above average as well, going 4-3 in the previous NUPL and NUSD. Heysup is cemented as one of the great DPPNU players, along with Berald and HSOWA. Getting any of these players near guarantees you’ll go at least even in DPP. Heysup is also an ADV superstar, going 5-2 in last year’s NUPL while Honko held down DPP. Triangles removes the need for any ADV help, however – he’s a self-sufficient player who posted one of the best ADV records in both NUSD and the last NUPL. Triangles and Heysup will surely be a scary duo that can compete with other strong players like Jisoo and ArcticBreeze for the best record in the tier.

The Talonflames are a team that have the best players in several slots, completely offsetting their weaker slots entirely. Even if the other 3 slots failed every week, which is unlikely due to the potential for them to perform, they could win every week off of their top slots alone.


The Moneymaker Musharnas
Confide’s NUSD II run is enough to put him at the top of a threat list, going 6-1 against some of NU’s best. He wasn’t as active in NUPL so it’s hard to tell how well he’ll perform this year, but we can expect similar amazing results. Confide can operate any kind of team, which is a trend you’ll see a lot for this draft. Less known in NU, GXE was a solid UU builder and player at the start of the generation and has more recently dabbled in NU in tours like BLT and NU Open; it’s hard to say how he will do, though the rankers don’t show much confidence in him. Raptor is a strong pilot, much like PDT, another great pickup by Musharnas. With Expulso and Irish to feed them teams, they’ll be threats.

Luthier is a really solid player in SM from his time playing current gen slams, but with the top end of the pool, he still manages not to be a standout. With Luck as a manager to help him build, along with his piloting skills, he definitely has the potential to go positive and more. The KID will do what he always does; load up some weird shit and win. Coming off a solid 5-3 from NUSD II, Kiyo is a self-sufficient ORAS and a huge steal for 8K. Shuckleking is very experienced in BW NU, holding the best record last year in NUPL at 4-1. Even though this is the case, the tier has changed a fair amount since last NUPL and there's more new faces, so it's not a guarantee that he'll be the best again. vivalospride did a fine job last year with a middling record at 3-2, and although he isn't a favorite, with Expulso as the manager, he should have adequate support to turn another performance this year. Jisoo is the undisputed goat of ADV NU, 6-3 in NUSD, 6-0 in NUPL. Nobody can put up results like she can. Self-sufficient like Kiyo, you draft them and see wins in your ADV slot, no questions asked.

Overall, the Musharnas have a really solid team. They have a few standouts in Confide, Jisoo, and Shuckleking, and every other slot can be expected to go at least even in most seasons. With almost no exceptionally poor slots, it will be hard to find a weakness in this team.


The Malding Machamps
After inheriting and renaming the Pablos franchise, Ninja and TheFranklin nonetheless went for a very tour-player heavy team. While the lineup looks quite intimidating on paper, the strategy itself is a bit questionable for two managers that are not known as builders in any of the NU generations. Nonetheless, on paper they have lots of potential; let’s get into it.

Star, TJ, and Xiri is one of the more stacked cores of players you can imagine in a tour like this; all three have played in and won official tournaments like SPL and SCL while putting up positive records. On top of this, Xiri made the finals of the most recent NU League and TJ and Star seem likely to make the playoffs of this Slam. Damn. Such star-studded rosters don’t always translate directly to subforum PLs, though; as one example, TJ went 3-5 in NUSD and was nearly winless in UUPL despite making UU Open semis or finals. Nonetheless, the potential is 100% there for their SS core to be successful and it would be foolish to not expect the core to go positive.

Robjr is among the top half of the SM pool and Chaitanya is among the top half of the ORAS pool; not much more to say there, both are great picks. Ninjadog is ranked rather lowly in BW despite impressive playing skill; for instance, he’s all-time 10-3 or 11-3 in BW RU in RUPLs. However, I don’t believe he has ever touched BW NU and the team doesn’t seem to have any support in that tier. Its rather centralized nature makes it not that difficult to build, but this could prove an annoyance for the first few weeks. DPP Tlenit and ADV ziloXX are in similar positions; with little to no experience in their tiers for this tour and managers that provide little support (except perhaps in SS and DPP), the rankers are quite skeptical of their ability to succeed in these tiers.

Despite a stunningly strong top half of their roster, the rankers believe that the team’s inability to support its BW-ADV slots will be their Achilles heel. I find it difficult to see how a team with such a star-studded roster could totally flop, and surely Star can dial up Watashi for some teams from 2015 or whenever. The Jerk’s success in prior versions of this tour proves that playing ability can often overcome tier knowledge or experience; without their typical managers at the helm, will the (franchise formerly known as the) Pablos do it again?


The Freedom Frogadiers
GW and Abejas lead this tour’s “mainer team”, complete with a core of 3 NU mainers in SS and community mainstays like quziel and Links in some of the oldgen slots.

S1nn0hC0nfirm3d (“Ho3n”) leads the SS core; widely regarded as a top-5 SS NU player, he has historically put up very strong results in NU team tours, going 5-2 in both NUSD and the most recent NUPL. His 19k price tag was the highest in the auction for good reason, and he should live up to it. GW’s history with NU team tours is quite rocky, but he already has 1 win under his belt and went 5-3 in NUSD; he should probably finish around average. Davon typically finishes about average in the NU team tours as well, going 4-3 in NUPL and 4-4 in NUSD. However, he went 0-4 in SCL and hasn’t been as active in circuit tours recently; if this SS core has a weak spot, it is probably Davon. Overall, though, the SS core is above average, with good players that build for themselves.

EternalSnowman plays SM for the Frogadiers and is ranked near the bottom of the pool due to his inexperience with the tier. However, he’s not totally lost; quziel is able to provide SM teams after playing the tier in NUSD, and he’s also a good enough player to likely pilot his way to a few wins. Despite this, he’ll probably finish negative in the tough SM pool. Quziel has had great success in ORAS in the past and is widely regarded as one of the tier’s best and most dedicated players. Although he’s working on a PhD and is thus pretty busy, he should finish positive without a doubt. Links is an up-and-coming BW prospect; after coming off the bench in NUSD to finish 3-1, he gets a starting slot and should make the most of that opportunity in a fairly weak pool. I’d expect him to go positive, though a pretty wide range of outcomes is possible in the 2x crits tier. DPP and ADV are the team’s shakiest slots; Drud has no known experience in DPP NU and Jabba is regarded as a fairly unreliable builder/player (though he did finish an encouraging 4-3 last NUPL). Drud’s a fine player, going 6-0 in DPP PU in PUWC, but he isn’t really proven outside of PU and it’s hard to tell how well he will pick up this tier.

The Frogadiers’ low rank comes from doubt in their SM, ADV, and DPP slots. If all three finish at or near average and GW stays out of James Bond territory, the team could definitely outperform this ranking and make playoffs. However, question marks about those 3 players, and other possible issues like Links’ first tour as a starter and quziel’s inactivity, give this team a fairly low ranking.


Catacomb Cacturnes
Roxiee drafted this tour’s army, fitting a whopping 15 people onto the Catacomb Cacturnes’ roster. The SS core puts high expectations on one or both of Danny and Roxiee to build; beyond Danny, the remaining spots will be occupied by tour players like jonfilch, EviGaro, and current subs like Aliss / The Strap. Danny himself is a fairly strong builder and player who made top 8 of NU Open but probably isn’t regarded as a SS1 yet; perhaps he can build on his 5-4 performance last NUSD and establish himself as an NU top dog this tour, but for now they lack a little star power in that SS core. Jon and Evi are fine enough players but don’t have much familiarity with the tier; I’d expect them to go about 3-4 if they played it for a full season.

Another non-NU player, “TRIBAL CHIEF” Welli0u, slots into SM. I honestly have no idea if he’s ever touched the tier in the past or in various French tours, so his games will certainly be intriguing to watch. They also have the team support of former 26.5K SMer Evi, who can pass teams or slot in (and free up an SS slot for Aliss/Strap) if SM goes badly. Now is the time where I talk about how INSANE that price was, lmao. How did that happen?? Nobody was even over 20K this tour!!

Back to this edition of NUPL, the Cacturnes trust ORAS to The Goomy, always a dangerous proposition. He went negative (3-4) versus a slightly weaker pool in NUSD, so expectations are fairly low this tour. Roxiee doesn’t have much in the way of expectations in BW NU, since I don’t think anyone has seen him play it in a meaningful setting. I’ve seen him try out BW PU, so the mechanics knowledge and passion seem there, but it’s hard to project a positive finish for someone who hasn’t touched the tier much before. In DPP they have Bouff, who also hasn’t touched the tier too much but should be able to pilot just fine. He is supported by Ara, who has probably already asked Roxiee why he isnt starting at least 5 times. ADV is a bright spot for the roster; ArcticBreeze finished first in the NUSD pool with a strong 6-2 record, has already won his Week 1 game, and proved his playing skills with a high seed in Smogon Tour playoffs. His 11k price is probably a bargain and he should carry the team.

The Cacturnes simply have too many question marks and not enough strong points to avoid the last-place rank. Jon, Welli0u, Roxiee, and Bouff all haven’t really touched the tiers they’re playing before, so it’s hard to say how they’ll do with any confidence. One of those who has, The Goomy, hasn’t put up very good results in the tier he’s playing. Even if Danny and Arctic do about as well as one could realistically expect, it’s hard (but not impossible) to see this team making playoffs.


Vibrant Vivillons
Rozes returns to the managing scene with a team that could have easily come from the era when he was first appointed TL. The SS core of xavgb, Sage, and Sabella features three SPL players, though none have proven very much in NU in recent times. Stresh (xavgb) is widely regarded as a very strong builder and player. If he can do this, his 18k price won’t be an overpay; however, after a 4-3 tour last NUSD and with a stated intent to prioritize WCoP over this tour, we are unsure whether this will be the case. Sabella is an old NU mainstay; while he hasn’t hung around the community much in recent years, he’s still been able to build his own fairly unique teams in tours like NU Ladder Tour and the last NU Snake Draft, where he went positive. Sage rounds out the core as a generally solid pilot, but without a strong Slam run or much experience in the tier it’s hard to see her doing better than average. Pokeslice and col49, the team’s only 2 subs, are around to provide SS support if it’s desperately needed.

Lax is slotted into SM at a fairly low price for him, 11.5k. He’s been one of Smogon’s strongest players but has looked fairly crusty over the past year and seems to be largely moving on from mons. If he plays a full season, though, there’s a good chance this price is a steal. Crying takes the ORAS slot, which the rankers are rather skeptical about since ORAS NU is a rather broad tier and thus harder than most tiers to plug new players into. Crying is an “everything mainer” though and definitely has the potential to pick up the tier well enough, particularly with teams from rozes and maybe lax; however, we’d expect her to finish around 3-4. Shiloh is playing BW; he has a decent amount of experience here and BW is one of the weaker pools, so he’ll probably go slightly positive. DPP and ADV are the team’s biggest question marks. Staxi fills in DPP for a shocking pricetag of 15K, more than Beraldinho and HSOWA (retained) and equal to Heysup. He’s put up good records in the tier in the past but is viewed as being fairly counter-teamable and having an average ceiling as a player; it’ll take a lot to live up to this price in the variance gen. Finally, Rabia will play ADV for the Vivillons. He has fairly solid tier knowledge and success in tours like NU Classic, but he hasn’t won yet in NUPL. The strong ADV pool may be too much for him, which would seriously hurt the Vivillons due to their low number of subs and the difficulty of shuffling someone else into this slot.

Overall, the Vivillons seem like a fine team – slightly below average but with a fairly high ceiling if players like Stresh and Lax live up to their full potential. Their success will largely depend on Sage and Sabella doing well in SS and the ORAS and ADV slots staying afloat.



PLAYER RANKINGS
Points correspond to the average rank assigned to a player. Small number = good
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Overall Rankings
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Good luck to all teams! :heart:
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Make sure to join and ask for the matches tag if you want to catch these games live.
 
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