Tournament LCPL 8 - Week 7

Corporal Levi

ninjadog of the decade
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Scheduling Guide


Skitty Committee (5) vs Taillow Swifts (3)
SM: Jox vs Serene Grace
SM: frisoeva vs Gareth Adamson
SM: Chill Shadow vs Sealette
SM: neomon vs boulicrok
SM: SpaceWorm vs Sjneider
XY: absdaddy vs Xiri
BW: Arifeen vs Alkione
DPP: Nails vs Heysup


Tactical Totodiles (2) vs Shambled Shellos (6)
SM: Wabane vs trace
SM: TheRam vs Pamplona
SM: BurntZebra vs Luthier
SM: Megazard vs Plas
SM: Mikaav vs King Leo V
XY: Watchog vs mambo
BW: FLCL vs fatty
DPP: rozes vs HSOWA


Greed Up Geodudes (4) vs Activity Call Archens (2)
SM: London13 vs tazz
SM: Rodriblutar vs Toadow
SM: Kingler12345 vs Real FV13
SM: -Tsunami- vs Jytcampbell
SM: Eternal Spirit vs Havens
ORAS: teal6 vs Kushalos
BW: HSA vs fran17
DPP: TonyFlygon vs Fantos13


70% Ban Rate Wingulls (6) vs Pugnacious Phanpys (1)
SM: Hamhamhamham vs vooper
SM: EternalSnowman vs Simbo
SM: SaDiSTiCNarwhal vs tahu
SM: Xizaaa vs fitzy72
SM: HT vs Ampha
XY: DBW vs czim
BW: mad0ka vs tko
DPP: tjdaas vs TDK

Deadline: Sunday June 9th, 11:59 PM EDT
 
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Fille

Afk
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LCPL Champion
Since only 1 set this week matters, I'll pull the tazz-predicts 0.5 here and we'll see. Also these are the dumbest looking predicts I've ever done like first 4 sweep one team bottom 4 sweep other team cmon the fuck fille but ye thats how it be so I just swapped some slots so it looks cooler
Tactical Totodiles (4) vs Shambled Shellos (4)
SM: Wabane vs trace (60/40) ok ngl TraceOfLife has been oddly consistent this tournament, while Wabane has been .. inconsistent. He's solid and all 3-2 is good but like ye trace on fire and wabane has brought fire but like everyone knows that the best way to defeat a fire is to bring a bigger fire and trace is that so ye.
BW: FLCL vs fatty (55/45) weebname vs daddytummy is lowkey the hottest game of this set, only potentially losing out on Luth vs Burnt but ye slight edge to fooly cause that 5-1 is defintely not a fluke 3-3 fatty kinda is tho and since this really matters I feel snorlax is gonna push himself to reel in the win so will be fun to watch
SM: TheRam vs Shrug (69/31) ye sorry I love my EU vro but Shrug should have this one close to bagged already if he takes it seriously which he undoubtably will. Ram is solid I have no doubt in my mind but Shrug is likely to pull some far right jank on Ram and Ram's just gonna like idfk drop down in confusion or something. Also coco wants them to bring solid and outplay and vs Shrug that is like near impossible so lol
DPP: rozes vs HSOWA (60/40) Hsowa had a hot lpl run but like this is lcpl which is like actually prestigious (am the crowd laughs). 3-3 in gamble tier isn't like bad but up against a 5-1 I mean this guy obviously found a way to be consistent or maybe it's just his support but nonetheless Rozes probably banking this one.
SM: BurntZebra vs Luthier (60/40) Idk Burnt has a good enough record ig but he hasn't had that consistent flare that luthier has had this lcpl, + luthier cant post a vid of himself losing that'd just be ... weird. I think flcl vs Fatty is a slightly hotter MU than this, but I don't like BW so looking more forward to this for sure.
SM: Megazard vs Plas (60/40) I mean Plas has webbed like half ish of his opponents so mega and co is likely gonna overprep for that and then Plas surprises everyone by actually bringing something solid and we're all gonna be like whoa and then within like 80 turns he won... or he pulls webs and mega just pummels him who knows I bet the former tho
SM: Mikaav vs King Leo V (65-35) ye honestly it's weird how I feel so many of these matchups are likely really favoured on one end but forreal tho Leo is hot but lacks the LC experience and Mika is flames as fuck in LC, so as long as Leo doesnt play like an idiot Mika is likely to bag this. On the other hand Leo could play like an absolute moron which is like the best way to beat Mika cause every play he'll make will turn into an overprediction and he'll lose as a result.
XY: Fiend vs mambo (53/47) honestly no clue who takes this but my hunch says Fiend, anyways I feel this and Flcl vs fatty are the 2 most likely to be wrong and also the 2 that will decide who wins or if they gotta tiebreak but ye there will be 2 sm for tiebreaker and I'm 100% certain Shellos takes the tiebreak if there is one so ig it actually doesnt matter at all damn...
 
Doing these at Luthiers request, this is actually an incredibly interesting series as it has multiple toss ups that will likely decide it.

Tactical Totodiles (2) vs Shambled Shellos (6)
SM: Wabane vs trace (60/40) I'm in agreement with Fille here, Wabane's record hasn't been remarkable while trace has been really stepping it up this year. I actually do think that Wabane might be on the same level player-wise (or better, in my personal opinion), but I also have a lot of faith in the building support of the Shelloses that I don't really have for the totos.
SM: TheRam vs Shrug (80/20) I think most would agree that TheRam winning would be an incredible upset, especially with Shrug fighting for his teams spot in playoffs.
SM: BurntZebra vs Luthier (60/40) This is probably the hardest predict for me to make, as I test a lot with Luthier and believe that he can definitely play well enough to have an advantage on Zebra, but doesn't really have the results against what I would consider Snake level LCers to reflect that yet. I haven't looked at seasonals (which are a bit less serious than open or LCPL), but his most impressive win in open was vs Chillshadow and in this current tour he has yet to face any snake prospects. In exhibition he faced three, winning against shrug but losing against Ninja and, notably for this prediction, Zebra. If I was going purely by these results I would give Zebra the edge because he's a bit more established against snake level players, but I'm giving Luthier the advantage despite them because of personal opinion on his play. I was also really disappointed with Zebras play in the first three weeks, as he would have lost all three matches if not for a leaf storm miss week one and a timer loss week two.
SM: Megazard vs Plas (60/40) I think Plas has the advantage in meta knowledge and support, but has been lacking in motivation lately. This is about as close as Zebra vs Luthier and will probably depend on how motivated Plas is.
SM: Mikaav vs King Leo V (60/40) I think that Mikaav is probably a bit better in metagame knowledge and playing skill than Leo, but has team building issues that Leo's support will have the building skills to expose.
XY: Fiend vs mambo (60/40) I think Mambo and Fiend have similar metagame knowledge, but I have a bit more faith in Mambo's playing skill and his ORAS support in Shrug and Fatty
BW: FLCL vs fatty (60/40) This is another really tough one to predict as these two are easily the strongest BWers in the pool (fatty should have been playing BW from week 1 in my opinion), and while fatty is in my eye one of the 2-3 people who still has enough metagame knowledge to build really well in BW FLCL has a teambuilder full of great BW teams and a record that I can't predict against.
DPP: rozes vs HSOWA (65/35) So far only the greatest DPP core in the tour (melon/fantos) could bring rozes down, and nobody can really blame him for that. HSOWA has had a good run, but Melon thinks rozes has an edge and his word is gospel.

I think that the Shelloses have a pretty solid advantage in this series, as they have what I would consider a very solid win in Shrug vs ThaRam and only need a tie to secure a place in playoffs while the Totodiles have to fight for every single win. It is possible for them to win 5 of the tossups, but I would consider a win for the totodiles this week an upset.
 

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