since embiid not playing not looking forward to sixers game, but i think mavs win
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Sports NBA Thread: 2023-2024 Season
- Thread starter awyp
- Start date
1yr
formerly I❤BerryKind
I agree I don’t really see anyone in this class becoming a star
I think Lukas chances should be much higher than they actually are like imo he should win it pretty obviously but knowing the nba I don’t even think he will be too 3
Miami sliding into the 6th seed probably means the Bucks will live to see the 2nd round.
Shame about having to face Miami and having Doc Rivers in the 2nd round tho. Stick a fork in em.
The East would only get mildly interesting if the Heat actually make it to the other side of the bracket. Otherwise, the ECF will be Miami vs Boston. Again. I'm sure someone is sick of it by now.
Shame about having to face Miami and having Doc Rivers in the 2nd round tho. Stick a fork in em.
The East would only get mildly interesting if the Heat actually make it to the other side of the bracket. Otherwise, the ECF will be Miami vs Boston. Again. I'm sure someone is sick of it by now.
Heat losing to Sixers keep them at 7-8 range. Kinda hoping they stay there. Heat/Bucks or Heat/Celtics in the first round is fireworks.
So what's everybody's feelings on Clips/Mavs III?
pretty good video but I think jxmy got a better video
Pretty much the debate we had last month. MVP is narrative driven, and it has become more nebulous since Westbrook's MVP season.
I need the Warriors to make it to that 8th seed now.
Minny is an easier matchup than Denver and I don't wanna risk the Sons escaping that KD vs. Curry series either.
Minny is an easier matchup than Denver and I don't wanna risk the Sons escaping that KD vs. Curry series either.
What’s with all the Luka hate in the media I just don’t get it. Everytime I go online looking at forums or Twitter everyone is praising Luka but anytime I see a clip on TV it’s someone’s bum ass like Kenny Smith saying that he’d put Luka on his All NBA 2nd team after Anthony Edwards and SGA? Like how is Ant better than Luka in any capacity outside free throw percentage and isolation defender?
okay and the MVP ladder last one of the year has Luka at 3rd after an amazing week and SGA free throwed merchant for 16/20 for a 40 piece..what are we doing here???
Like Luka you can make an argument for SGA for 2nd but like this constant hate of Luka is so bizarre
okay and the MVP ladder last one of the year has Luka at 3rd after an amazing week and SGA free throwed merchant for 16/20 for a 40 piece..what are we doing here???
Like Luka you can make an argument for SGA for 2nd but like this constant hate of Luka is so bizarre
Poor kings. Falling from that 3-5 range they were at for most of the season to the 9/10 matchup because the Lakers, Suns, and Mavericks just had huge runs at the right time. They were like the Detroit Lions of the NBA last year and now they are wallowing in the fact that even with two all-NBA players this season they still have to go through GS and potentially Lebron.
My March Madness picks were very poor this year, so much so that I didn't actually publish a full bracket once I went 0-4 on the First Four games in the men's tournament. I told myself I wanted to try and make up for this with an NBA playoff bracket. I expect to see a lot of controversial games in the West this season, and notable losses from both of the 2 seeds including the reigning NBA Finals champion Nuggets. Two teams in the East I don't know that much about, being the Knicks and the Magic respectively, could perform better than I have listed here, though. I wouldn't exactly be surprised to see either of those teams make it to the Conference Semifinals, especially as the Heat has more games to play in the Play-In before the eventual 7 seed plays the Knicks. If you're the NBA or a televised broadcaster, here are the storylines I feel like you're looking for this year:
- Big-market teams beating up on smaller market teams repeatedly in the Play-In brackets, followed by recurring debates across sports news sites on which of these four is "most likely to go all the way?" (notice how all four have that one X-Factor player they rely on- Lebron, Curry, Jimmy, and Joel respectively). A rising Thunder team wins against the regressing Warriors who are past their prime in six while the 76ers fail to make it past the Celtics in the playoffs for the fourth time since 2017-18 and (unfortunately) once again fail to make it past the Conference Semifinals during this time frame.
- The reigning NBA Finals champions failing to make it past the Los Angeles Lebro- I mean, the Lakers, leading to allegations of that series being rigged; the case against this argument isn't helped much when the Lakers also go to seven games in the following series too against a stubborn Timberwolves defense. Speaking of which...
- The Minnesota Timberwolves and their leading scoring defense begin being criticized in the West for having a very easy playoff schedule courtesy of the Thunder/Mavericks matchup that we all know the NBA wants for the big-time stars and watch time revenue (sorry, Clippers fans) and because they dodged Jokic and the Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Mavericks claim an admittedly impressive win over OKC in six games, fueling debates on if Luka actually deserved MVP over either Jokic or Shai, before the Timberwolves do their best Kansas City Chiefs impression and have their defense carry them against some of the hottest offensive players in the league right now.
- The Miami Heat wins another series that they arguably shouldn't have (albeit not as big of an upset as last time) which, extremely conveniently I might add, leads right into a Conference Semifinals matchup against that very team (the NBA proceeds to take this series to seven games for more watch time revenue). The Bucks, however, are able to get revenge in part due their so-called superteam status, before winning against Boston in the Conference Finals and exposing the Timberwolves' easy playoff schedule prior to this point. The Bucks win their first championship since 2020-21, their second in four seasons, while the Celtics continue their title drought since 2007, having only won three Eastern Conference titles during this time span (2007-08, 2009-10, and 2021-22).
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The West got better, they didn't, and they were the healthiest team last year.
Regression was likely imo
Bold of you to assume the bucks can win a playoff series considering their performance as of late
Was right .. bro was an all star
Play-In Tuesday predictions:
Lakers vs Pelicans: I really do believe Lakers have hit their stride as of recent, that being said this is a toss up because I believe its tough to win 2 games in a row playing the same team regardless of how bad they are so I think Pelicans can pull a sneaky one but from last year I just believe Lakers have an extra battery when it comes to this time of the year and I don't think the Pelicans are that formidable without Brandon Ingram at 100% (Going with Lakers)
Warriors vs Kings: Going with Warriors I don't think there's any massive injury from their side and honestly losing Malik Monk really sucks but Warriors are only missing GP2 which isn't too big of a deal since I think they have good backup in that slot. This will probably be the better game to watch since it'll just be insane offense vs insane offense. (Going with Warriors)
Lakers vs Pelicans: I really do believe Lakers have hit their stride as of recent, that being said this is a toss up because I believe its tough to win 2 games in a row playing the same team regardless of how bad they are so I think Pelicans can pull a sneaky one but from last year I just believe Lakers have an extra battery when it comes to this time of the year and I don't think the Pelicans are that formidable without Brandon Ingram at 100% (Going with Lakers)
Warriors vs Kings: Going with Warriors I don't think there's any massive injury from their side and honestly losing Malik Monk really sucks but Warriors are only missing GP2 which isn't too big of a deal since I think they have good backup in that slot. This will probably be the better game to watch since it'll just be insane offense vs insane offense. (Going with Warriors)
The dynasty is over. Thank goodness.
(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus Dallas Mavericks (5) III – Revenge of the Luke
“We all know Timmy’s not shooting the ball well. Maybe we’ll watch Major League and get some Kentucky Fried Chicken and put that in his locker.” – Jason Kidd
My cat makes her own pick!
This will be the third time these two teams play in the first round within five years, and their games have almost always been close. Both teams have some of the most prolific isolation players in the league in Kawhi and Luka. Despite the shuffling of the rosters since the second meeting, I feel both teams still have plenty ways to exploit each other.
Luka is still expected to perform very well here. Kawhi/Paul are three years older, and Los Angeles doesn’t have many excellent on-ball defenders. Maybe only Mann can really stand a chance of bothering Luka. He’s certainly going to hunt for Harden, Zubac, and anyone not Kawhi/Paul. Kawhi is easily capable of doing the same thing to Dallas as he did in 2021. Kawhi can easily target Kyrie, Luka, or Hardaway Jr. That’s primarily what makes their games so close. Neither team can hide bad defenders consistently for 48 minutes.
So, this is going to come down to the adjustments mid-series and who can win on the margins. Which team is more successful with a big? Which team is more successful with small ball? Which team is better at preventing their lesser defenders from being exploited on defense? I can only theorize on how it could play out.
If Zubac can play well in this series on both ends, Los Angeles can force Dallas to play bigger. If Kleber can hang with Zubac and do okay on Kawhi switches, this will force Los Angeles to play smaller. Personally, I feel Dallas has the advantage in this case. They have become a faster team, and much of their growth in defense is attributed to a combination of Washington, Gafford, and Kleber. Gafford has the size, and Washington/Kleber have the switchability and length to contrast. Los Angeles’ small ball has gotten less effective over the years despite those line-ups being their best advantage, and Zubac is the only real size they have. I don’t think Plumlee/Theis is frontline that can contend with Dallas’s youth, talent, and speed. How effective Zubac can be versus Gafford/Kleber/Washington/Lively in their roles will decide one of the larger margins of the series. It’s an interesting case of youth/talent versus experience
The perimeter has another interesting battle of the margins. How you feel about Harden’s and Kyrie’s ability to perform in the postseason should answer who you should favor. We can expect Los Angeles to attack and pressure Kyrie/Luka all series in a battle of attrition and exploit Kyrie’s size. We can also expect vice versa when it comes to Harden’s own defense reputation. Los Angeles has three isolation guys, though, and they’re all 6’5” or taller. Does Kyrie’s size matter? Is Harden going to be aggressive? Quite honestly, asking me to trust Kyrie’s ability to hold up against three opposing isolation players bigger than him is a tall task. Expecting Harden to have a good series period may even be an even taller task.
The only other margins to consider are general team stats. Dallas plays faster and gets more threes up but doesn’t shoot them as efficiently. Los Angeles shoots a higher efficiency in threes but doesn’t take as many. Faster pace favors Dallas, slower pace favors Los Angeles, and the team who controls the pace more will typically be better in isolation which is up in the air as far as which team will be better at it over a seven-game series. One does have to wonder how well Kawhi/Paul/Harden can hold up for a long series. Kawhi has health concerns and Harden has playoff demons. I can at least be assured Luka and Kyrie will bring it all the way to game seven on the road. They have before.
The only other x-factor I haven’t talked about is Westbrook, and he should dominate any minutes with Luka and Kyrie off the floor. He is free to attack Hardaway Jr. until his heart is content, and he may even be much for Irving. It’s unknown how well Westbrook can potentially play in a series like this, but more turnovers favor the faster paced team. He may be a very risky x-factor to consider either way.
I think Dallas has more answers while Los Angeles has more questions. I trust Dallas’ ability to play big and small over the course of a series, and I like the speed and athleticism their small ball line-ups have over Los Angeles. If Kawhi also isn’t fully healthy, advantage for Dallas.
Dallas wins if: Kawhi can’t get healthy (again). Harden gets exploited on defense and can’t escape his playoff demons (again). Dallas’s line-up versatility and flexibility help them make better in-game adjustments. Luka and Kyrie simply out-isolate Kawhi/Paul/Harden.
Los Angeles wins if: Kawhi is the best player of the series. Zubac has successful play, and maybe even Theis finds a way to contribute. Kyrie cannot escape the relentless attack of Harden, Paul, or Kawhi. Luka gets tired and becomes less efficient as the pace of the series slows down. Gafford, Lively, and Washington are too new to the playoffs to hang with experienced veterans. Dallas’ role players can’t make shots out of Luka/Kyrie traps.
Dallas in seven.
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves versus (6) Phoenix Suns
“Cheatin’ ass refs.” – Anthony Edwards
This matchup will require Minnesota to change their style of defense to an extent if they want to win.
Minnesota heavily relies on its defense more than the average team to win games as they rank below average offensively. They tend to commit many turnovers and only have one above-average decision maker in Conley. Edwards is a fantastic athlete but most of his scoring is through his physicality and control, not playmaking. He has limitations in making cross court passes, and when faced with a crowd, he gets tunnel vision. Vogel has picked up on this throughout their three regular season games.
They rely on drop-coverage since Gobert has the size to the protect the paint and KAT isn’t as good chasing perimeter guys. This sadly plays into Phoenix’s hands as their offense prefers to take mid-range shots and above-the-break threes… the two things Minnesota concedes.
I don’t see Minnesota winning unless they do something different. KAT is foul-prone and certainly will not excel in a heavy switching, blitzing defensive scheme. Gobert has his moments but he is best near the rim. So, Phoenix is already expected to be very comfortable from the get-go. That doesn’t mean Minnesota can’t come up with a blitz scheme that works, but for three off-the-dribble shooters, guys like McDaniels/Alexander-Walker will need to work hard. I may also consider switching KAT for Anderson in at the four.
Then you have Conley’s size. He’s also one of the older players between both teams. Conley is the best passer and decision maker for Minnesota and is their best bet at preventing turnovers. If he’s exploited by Booker or Beal? He’s now a liability and all that’s really left advantage wise is Edwards, and he struggled against Phoenix this series. Edwards will need to figure out playmaking to make the series work in Minnesota’s favor
The only way I see Minnesota standing a chance is through their rebounding, physicality, and improved playmaking. They must turn this series into a rock fight, and the longer it goes, the more I would favor Minnesota. They have great perimeter defenders who may be good enough to fight over screens and chase Phoenix’s big three enough for Gobert and KAT to take care of the glass. They may also want to look at the film of that Clippers game where Phoenix fell behind 30 due to Zubac’s presence. If Gobert or KAT can get Nurkic in foul trouble or score over him, then Minnesota will have a formula for beating Phoenix. KAT also needs to play better than he’s ever played, because his playoff demons haven’t escaped him.
Phoenix wins if: Their big three is too comfortable scoring outside the paint, Conley is a liability, and KAT/Gobert are schemed out on defense. Edwards’s playmaking is limited, and he can only rely on tough shot making.
Minnesota wins if: Phoenix can’t handle the physicality and KAT/Gobert dominate the paint. Edwards and KAT slowly learn to beat Vogel’s schemes. Gobert/KAT/Anderson find a way to blitz and force turnovers. McDaniels/Alexander-Walker navigate screens like champs.
Phoenix in six.
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (5) Orlando Magic
“We don’t have guys that start shit, but we have guys that don’t run from shit.” – J.B. Bickerstaff
Concrete analysis on this is tough because their regular season matchups missed key players here and there. Cleveland also has had fluctuation of line-ups throughout the season that make them near impossible to pin down. What is Cleveland’s identity? All I can tell is that they flourished when Allen and Mobley didn’t play together.
Both teams are long, rebound well, and protect the paint. They are similar in defensive prowess. Cleveland has the better offense which shouldn’t be too surprising. They have shooters and top scoring guards, and that is the key edge that will likely decide the series. Orlando has the biggest % differential when examining paint scoring and outside paint scoring. If Cleveland finds a way to shoot consistently outside, they should be fine.
Suggs is a great defender, but Mitchell and Garland averaged 25+ points when they played this team in the regular season at least. Orlando would need exceptional perimeter defense to keep up with Cleveland’s outside shooting. I will admit there is trepidation in trusting Cleveland’s guards a second time around which is why Orlando has a decent shot at winning this series.
So, the winner hinges on how you feel about both backcourts. Orlando has the physicality and size to win any rock fight, and Cleveland has the finesse to outshoot you. I choose Cleveland solely because of intangibles: homecourt advantage, experience, and Mitchell’s explosiveness.
Cleveland wins if: Garland and Mitchell can’t be contained. Orlando is unable to exploit size mismatches due to Cleveland packing the paint. Cleveland shoots a high percentage outside the paint. Mobley/Allen don’t get in each other’s way.
Orlando wins if: Banchero has a coming out playoff party. Garland/Mitchell can’t handle the physicality. Cleveland can’t find a winning line-up, nor have an identity this long into the Mobley/Allen era.
Cleveland in seven.
(3) Milwaukee Bucks versus (6) Indiana Pacers
“I told [Bucks ownership] when they called, ‘I don’t understand why you’re doing this.’ And one of the things they said was, ‘Well it doesn’t matter. We’ve done it now and we want you.’ And that was a tough one. That’s where you had the hesitation.” – Doc Rivers
I knew even one day before the regular season Milwaukee was in trouble. The moment Terry Stotts voluntarily left the staff meant something.
Things don’t look good for Milwaukee at first glance. Giannis may not be ready early in the series. How is Milwaukee without Giannis? In the aggregate, With Lillard, Lopez, and Middleton on but Giannis off, they have a paltry -20.8 net rating.
The key to Milwaukee winning is through their ball screen defense. Beasley and Lillard are exploited and cannot hang with Haliburton for a series. This is where Beverly comes in. Beverly is a hound dog in perimeter defense, and Haliburton’s numbers have slightly dropped since his hamstring injury. Milwaukee’s best chance outside of a healthy Giannis hangs on their only true guard defender. Haliburton is going to see less resistance than Lillard between the two teams, so it would help to even the odds on the perimeter if you can make Haliburton feel uncomfortable.
Siakam/Turner and Portis/Lopez is a great frontline matchup. Both have an interest mix of defense/offensive strengths. Turner is the more athletic, aggressive defender while Lopez is a better shooter but isn’t as good in space. Siakam is more versatile than Portis while Portis is more offensively skilled. Neither team has played since Indiana made the trade for Siakam, so I consider it a wash for now. Whichever two is more efficient however is a great x-factor for the series.
The only other big factor I see is pace. Milwaukee has improved in their transition defense since acquiring Doc Rivers, but they still have bad foot speed as a team, and Indiana is the fastest team in the league as they run on made baskets. Even if Milwaukee finds offensive flow between Dame/Middleton/Lopez/Portis, they still must play good transition defense for 48 minutes. Perhaps they opt to post Middleton/Lopez/Portis more to slow the pace. Lillard is still dynamite in his own right, but he’s had a funky season offensively.
Rick Carlisle is also a way superior coaching mind than Doc Rivers, so any hopes in Milwaukee getting intangibles outside of homecourt and a healthy Giannis is sunk.
Milwaukee wins if: Beverly makes Haliburton uncomfortable, Milwaukee finds a way to slow the pace, and Portis/Lopez become a great frontline defense all-around.
Indiana wins if: Haliburton cooks despite Beverly. Turner has better games than Lopez. Siakam has better games than Portis. Indiana’s pace is too much.
Indiana in six.
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I forgot to post my predictions here 
Gonna spoiler it because...
Hopefully this gets the Warriors FO to blow this shit up sky-high.
Gonna spoiler it because...
Lakers and Kings make it out the play-ins and get folded in the 1st round.
Sons outsmart the Wolves.
Mavs beat the Clips.
Sixers and Heat make it out the play-ins, Philly as the 7th seed. I know someone is sick of Boston vs Miami by now
Magic beat the Cavs.
Pacers smoke the Sucks.
Knicks enforce Embiid's fraud status.
Sons outsmart the Wolves.
Mavs beat the Clips.
Sixers and Heat make it out the play-ins, Philly as the 7th seed. I know someone is sick of Boston vs Miami by now
Magic beat the Cavs.
Pacers smoke the Sucks.
Knicks enforce Embiid's fraud status.
Hopefully this gets the Warriors FO to blow this shit up sky-high.
I feel bad for Steph. It’s Steph and the bums. He has no help out there.
Klay is washed.
Green is where I mainly point the finger. Get rid of him. He's nothing but an expensive liability who is now old and can't do nothing but pass and make the occasional good defensive play
Great post. I need to know the name of this intelligent analyst kitten immediately.
I agree but his issues are mostly off the court. On the court he had his best season in years and is the only semi-reliable non-curry guy on the team other than rookie pod.
It's here. It feels like Denver v LA was just a couple days ago, and know we have it this time in the first round. I'm sure most polls on Instagram will be split 50/50 but honestly I think Denver still takes this in 6. Each team's roster has hardly changed, and while LA might get some close home wins fueled by the crowd this is Denver's series to lose. I'm hype.