Project National Dex OU: Break This Core (Week 34: Mega Latias + Kartana + Victini)

:ss/Blacephalon:
Blacephalon @ Ghostium Z :Ghostium Z:
Ability: Beast Boost
EVs: 236 HP / 20 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Flamethrower
- Shadow Ball
- Calm Mind
- Substitute

Essentially, you pivot into Mega Scizor and setup a Subsitute and one Calm Mind; this allows you to not only get enough special attack to somewhat OHKO the entire core but also make yourself immune to any sort of priority (except Water Shuriken) for a good amount of time. After OHKOing Mega Scizor, you gain enough speed to outpace Tapu Koko since it needs to come in before Hawlucha to activate Unburden. Considering you have a chance to not OHKO without using the Z-Move on both Hawlucha and Tapu Koko, you basically want to have it for Hawlucha and because you have a Substitute up, you will survive Tapu Koko. After taking out both Mega Scizor and Tapu Koko, you have enough speed to take out Hawlucha and you've successfully taken out the core with minor chip from Substitute recoil and a potential Bullet Punch.

:Blacephalon: -> :Scizor-Mega:
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Flamethrower vs. 164 HP / 0 SpD Scizor: 1020-1200 (316.7 - 372.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Never-Ending Nightmare (160 BP) vs. 164 HP / 0 SpD Scizor: 450-531 (139.7 - 164.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Shadow Ball vs. 164 HP / 0 SpD Scizor: 226-267 (70.1 - 82.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

:Blacephalon: -> :Tapu Koko:
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Never-Ending Nightmare (160 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Tapu Koko: 472-556 (167.9 - 197.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Flamethrower vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Tapu Koko: 265-313 (94.3 - 111.3%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Tapu Koko: 237-279 (84.3 - 99.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

:Blacephalon: -> :Hawlucha:
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Never-Ending Nightmare (160 BP) vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 544-642 (170.5 - 201.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Flamethrower vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 306-361 (95.9 - 113.1%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
+1 20 SpA Blacephalon Shadow Ball vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Hawlucha: 273-322 (85.5 - 100.9%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
why would you expand when you can just go up tho
Note that the opponent could just sack koko and go to lucha, as even tho 1 out of 16 rolls from unburdened acrobatics would land the KO, mega scizor would be able to pick the game back with BP, and this is something no prediction will be able to save, due to the fact that +1 blacephalon is still slower than an unburdened hawlucha. Besides, there's practically no risk in doing so, the cost and reward for the opponent will be consistent, since no matter the blacephalon set is used, the counterplay will still have the same effect.
 
Fair.


Can you explain this better?
Scizor's bullet punch will do at least 36%, Tapu Koko's HP Ice will do at least 40%, and acrobatics will do at least 50. Combined with life orb recoil, this means that dragalge will die before it can KO all members of the core.
 
Scizor's bullet punch will do at least 36%, Tapu Koko's HP Ice will do at least 40%, and acrobatics will do at least 50. Combined with life orb recoil, this means that dragalge will die before it can KO all members of the core.
I would say killing 2/3 counts as breaking the core, finding a pokemon that can solo 3 revenge killers in a row isn't reasonable and a 2 for 1 is always a good trade.
 

Giyu

Love is the most twisted curse of them all
is a Site Content Manageris a Forum Moderatoris a Contributor to Smogon
:sm/Aerodactyl-Mega:
Aerodactyl @ Aerodactylite :Aerodactylite:
Ability: Tough Claws
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Stone Edge
- Dual Wingbeat
- Ice Fang
- Roost / Taunt

Mega Aerodactyl single-handedly OHKOs and outpaces the entirety of this core.

:Aerodactyl-Mega: -> :Lopunny-Mega:
252 Atk Tough Claws Aerodactyl-Mega Dual Wingbeat (2 hits) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 372-436 (137.2 - 160.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

:Aerodactyl-Mega: -> :Zapdos:
252 Atk Aerodactyl-Mega Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zapdos: 386-456 (120.2 - 142%) -- guaranteed OHKO

:Aerodactyl-Mega: -> :Gliscor:
252 Atk Tough Claws Aerodactyl-Mega Ice Fang vs. 244 HP / 52 Def Gliscor: 304-360 (86.3 - 102.2%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
 
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reserving mega swampert

:ss/swampert-mega:
Swampert @ Swampertite
Ability: Damp
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Waterfall
- Earthquake
- Ice Punch
- Flip Turn

In rain you outspeed and destroy this core.

:zapdos:
252 Atk Swampert-Mega Waterfall vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zapdos in Rain: 252-297 (78.5 - 92.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
:gliscor:
252 Atk Swampert-Mega Waterfall vs. 244 HP / 52 Def Gliscor in Rain: 344-408 (97.7 - 115.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
:lopunny-mega:
252 Atk Swampert-Mega Waterfall vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega in Rain: 229-271 (84.5 - 100%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Lopunny-Mega Fake Out vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Swampert-Mega: 63-75 (18.4 - 21.9%) -- possible 5HKO
252 Atk Lopunny-Mega Close Combat vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Swampert-Mega: 186-220 (54.5 - 64.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Lopunny-Mega Return vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Swampert-Mega: 159-187 (46.6 - 54.8%) -- 64.5% chance to 2HKO
252 Atk Lopunny-Mega U-turn vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Swampert-Mega: 73-86 (21.4 - 25.2%) -- 0.1% chance to 4HKO
 
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Reserving CM Clef

CM Clefable :clefable: :leftovers:

Clefable @ Leftovers
Ability: Magic Guard
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SpD
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Calm Mind
- Moonblast
- Soft-Boiled
- Flamethrower

Nothing here hits clef super hard after a CM. with Zapdos RNG is always going to be messy, so don't expect it to always go well when you try it, as sucho CM calcs for different boosts will be listed instead of just one so that the player can decide what should be done during the situation(to avoid even worse situations by looking ahead). Oh and also sequence breaking for this session won't be as long due to time constraints + the sheer amount of possibilities due to hurricane confusion hax.
Calculations Notes:
Max HP: 394(100%)
Softboiled healing: 197(50%)
Leftovers healing: 32(6.25%)
Softboiled + Leftovers healing within one turn= 229(56.25%)
Confusion damage: 21(5.3%)
Hurricane confusion proc chance: 21%(Accuracy x initial proc chance)

Confusion self hit chance: 33%(1/3)
Hurricane confusion proc with self hit on current turn= 7%
Hurricane confusion proc with hits within the current 2 consecutive turns= 2.33~%(7%/3)

0- Atk Clefable Tackle
vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 17-21 (4.3 - 5.3%) -- possibly the worst move ever
if you can't tell confuse self hit = using 40 BP typeless move on yourself, so i use tackle since it's neutral against clef just like typeless
252+ SpA Zapdos Supersonic Skystrike (185 BP) vs. +1 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 235-277 (59.6 - 70.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ SpA Zapdos Supersonic Skystrike (185 BP) vs. +2 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 177-208 (44.9 - 52.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ SpA Zapdos Hurricane vs. +2 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 105-124 (26.6 - 31.4%) -- 24.6% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ SpA Zapdos Hurricane vs. +1 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 139-165 (35.2 - 41.8%) -- 83.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ SpA Zapdos Volt Switch vs. +1 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 90-106 (22.8 - 26.9%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ SpA Zapdos Heat Wave vs. +1 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 81-96 (20.5 - 24.3%) -- possible 6HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ SpA Zapdos Volt Switch vs. +2 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 67-79 (17 - 20%) -- possible 7HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ SpA Zapdos Heat Wave vs. +2 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 61-72 (15.4 - 18.2%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery

+3 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 72 SpD Zapdos: 246-291 (76.6 - 90.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

+4 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 72 SpD Zapdos: 297-349 (92.5 - 108.7%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO

+5 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 72 SpD Zapdos: 345-406 (107.4 - 126.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

+6 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 72 SpD Zapdos: 394-465 (122.7 - 144.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Ok perhaps it's a bit too much

252 Atk Lopunny-Mega Fake Out vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 60-72 (15.2 - 18.2%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery

+1 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Lopunny-Mega: 306-360 (112.9 - 132.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 Atk Lopunny-Mega Return vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 153-180 (38.8 - 45.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

0 Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 91-108 (23 - 27.4%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery

0 Atk Gliscor U-turn vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 21-25 (5.3 - 6.3%) -- possibly the worst move ever

+3 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 244 HP / 192 SpD Gliscor: 246-291 (69.8 - 82.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Poison Heal

+4 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 244 HP / 192 SpD Gliscor: 297-349 (84.3 - 99.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Poison Heal

+5 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 244 HP / 192 SpD Gliscor: 345-406 (98 - 115.3%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

+6 0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 244 HP / 192 SpD Gliscor: 394-465 (111.9 - 132.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

We always come in on gliscor, then set up a CM.
Sequence 1a: CM as Zapdos comes in after gliscor u-turns(T1) ==> CM again on Supersonic Skystrike ==> Softboiled on Hurricane ==> Seperation Point(T4 onwards)

Calcs:
Under Construction
Sequence 1b: CM as Zapdos comes in after gliscor u-turns(T1) ==> Attempt to CM again on Hurricane ==> Softboiled on Supersonic Skystrike ==> Seperation Point(T4 onwards)

Calcs:
T1: 394(Max HP) - 25(U-turn) + 32(Leftovers Healing) = 394(Round back up to Max HP at the end of T1)
T2: 394(Max HP) - 165 + 32 = 261(HP at the end of T2)
T3: 261(HP at the end of T2) - 208 + 229 = 282(HP at the end of T3)
Under Construction
 
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Giyu

Love is the most twisted curse of them all
is a Site Content Manageris a Forum Moderatoris a Contributor to Smogon
Reserving CM Clef
I tried to make this work but it doesn't. If you switch Clefable into Zapdos, you just get Z-Moved to about 10% and then finished off with a Thunderbolt.
 
I tried to make this work but it doesn't. If you switch Clefable into Zapdos, you just get Z-Moved to about 10% and then finished off with a Thunderbolt.
my thinking here is that clef switches into glisc instead. I've done some quick calcs and clef should be able to take Supersonic Skystrike at +1 and CM or softboiled, making the following hurricane unable to ko unless hax is involved. But who knows it could still fail

August 6 12:10AM(GMT +8) edit: I was right, only unlikely amounts of RNG will ruin the strat.
 
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:weavile:
Weavile @ Focus Sash
Ability: Pressure
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 Def / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Protect
- Icicle Crash
- Knock Off
- Revenge / Counter

Weavile outspeeds and guaranteed OHKOs both Gliscor and Zapdos. Icicle Crash is used because it doesn't make contact, preventing static.

Protect on the turn Mega Lopunny comes into play to avoid Fake Out flinch. Use Revenge (/Counter) to kill her while staying alive via Focus Sash. Thanks to it's double power when taking damage, it's also a guaranteed OHKO against her.

Knock Off is there for coverage. Thanks to Focus Sash, this mon is a threat to pokemon both faster and slower than it. And it doesn't use a limited team resource, like Mega slots or Z-Crystals.

:Weavile: vs :Gliscor:
252+ Atk Weavile Icicle Crash vs. 244 HP / 52 Def Gliscor: 456-540 (129.5 - 153.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

:Weavile: vs :Zapdos:
252+ Atk Weavile Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zapdos: 330-390 (102.8 - 121.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

:Weavile: vs :Lopunny-Mega:
252+ Atk Weavile Revenge (120 BP)vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 286-338 (105.5 - 124.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
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:weavile:
Weavile @ Focus Sash
Ability: Pressure
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 Def / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Protect
- Icicle Crash
- Knock Off
- Revenge

Weavile outspeeds and guaranteed OHKOs both Gliscor and Zapdos. Icicle Crash is used because it doesn't make contact, preventing static.

Protect on the turn Mega Lopunny comes into play to avoid Fake Out flinch. Use Revenge to kill her while staying alive with Focus Sash. Thanks to it's double power when taking damage, it's also a guaranteed OHKO against her.

Knock Off is there for coverage. Thanks to Focus Sash, this mon is a threat to pokemon both faster and slower than it. And it doesn't use a limited team resource, like Mega slots or Z-Crystals.

:Weavile: vs :Gliscor:
252+ Atk Weavile Icicle Crash vs. 244 HP / 52 Def Gliscor: 456-540 (129.5 - 153.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

:Weavile: vs :Zapdos:
252+ Atk Weavile Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zapdos: 330-390 (102.8 - 121.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

:Weavile: vs :Lopunny-Mega:
252+ Atk Weavile Revenge (120 BP)vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 286-338 (105.5 - 124.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
The lop here has u-turn so it could just simply click that, sack a mon then come back to CC
 
The lop here has u-turn so it could just simply click that, sack a mon then come back to CC
If they knew that you had a Focus Sash, sure. But there's no reason for a Mega Lopunny to do that otherwise, given the fact that they outspeed and otherwise OHKO you without risking another one of their pokemon. Plus, you have Protect to scout and can switch out to a pivot if need be.
 
If they knew that you had a Focus Sash, sure. But there's no reason for a Mega Lopunny to do that otherwise, given the fact that they outspeed and otherwise OHKO you without risking another one of their pokemon. Plus, you have Protect to scout and can switch out to a pivot if need be.
Oh they always do have a good reason to click u-turn: momentum. In this kind of scenario even without accounting for this uncanny choice of focus sash protect most lop users will click u-turn. As you said weavile will pivot if needed, and u-turn punishes that. For example, u-turning on an incoming toxapex will result in zapdos coming in and dealing massive amounts of damage. That's how volt turn works this set simply fails against even a semi experienced player using this core.
 
I suppose you guys are right. In that case, Counter is probably a superior move to Revenge in that case, since it'll probably do more damage to any incoming pokemon than Revenge would, while still likely accomplishing the OHKO on Mega Lopunny should they stay in. It's negative priority makes it a poor coverage option, though.
 
I suppose you guys are right. In that case, Counter is probably a superior move to Revenge in that case, since it'll probably do more damage to any incoming pokemon than Revenge would, while still likely accomplishing the OHKO on Mega Lopunny should they stay in. It's negative priority makes it a poor coverage option, though.
Wouldn't work, after lop u-turns out it's either zap or glisc that's gonna get sacked, and then lop comes back in to smash weavile apart. changing the move won't make much of a difference
 
Would Choice Scarf Weavile work at all?
You'd need to switch out and kill of the core members one by one even if you use adamant.
252+ Atk Weavile Triple Axel (40 BP) (3 hits) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 216-255 (79.7 - 94%) -- approx. 2HKO
this proves that a fighting move is needed but...
252+ Atk Weavile Low Kick (60 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 144-170 (53.1 - 62.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Weavile Brick Break
vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 180-212 (66.4 - 78.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Weavile Dynamic Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 238-282 (87.8 - 104%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Weavile Dynamic Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lopunny-Mega: 238-282 (87.8 - 104%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
See how horrible it is now? without rocks it's a 1/8 chance(50% x 25% = 12.5%) and with rocks it's a 5/16(50% x 62.5%). Oh and also to add salt scarf ada vile is slower than scarf gren, mpert under rain etc. Moral of this conversation? don't use both sash and scarf weavile
 
Wouldn't work, after lop u-turns out it's either zap or glisc that's gonna get sacked, and then lop comes back in to smash weavile apart. changing the move won't make much of a difference
It wouldn't work in this specific instance, no. But it would deal more damage to an oncoming switch in, which was my thought process. Granted, if the only allowable switch ins are pokemon that you OHKO, then it doesn't really mater either way, I suppose. I feel like the other two pokemon being hard-countered by Weavile makes it a very difficult choice to click U-Turn without knowing Weavile's set before hand, though. Still, if you can take out either Gliscor or Zapdos before Mega Lopunny comes into play, then Mega-Lopunny being forced to sack a second pokemon to try and stop you is still kind of a win, in my opinion.

Now that I think about it, Counter fits perfectly on a Focus Sash set. Outside of just dealing with this core, Counter could be used to stop a vast array of would-be sweepers. Of course, that requires that you keep a Focus Sash intact until then, so...not as glamorous as it sounds. Focus Sash builds are lures that can be easily played around with knowledge, but can be great at securing surprise kills.
 
It wouldn't work in this specific instance, no. But it would deal more damage to an oncoming switch in, which was my thought process. Granted, if the only allowable switch ins are pokemon that you OHKO, then it doesn't really mater either way, I suppose. I feel like the other two pokemon being hard-countered by Weavile makes it a very difficult choice to click U-Turn without knowing Weavile's set before hand, though.
Because there's no conventional weavile sets that is much different from the standard choice band and SD sets that make lop be unable to check weavile, so the natural effective play is clicking u-turn, and it's not at all a difficult choice unless there's like a tank chomp to punish it super hard, which this weavile is not being paired with. And even then, the pivot will still be punished by the mon switching in.

Still, if you can take out either Gliscor or Zapdos before Mega Lopunny comes into play, then Mega-Lopunny being forced to sack a second pokemon to try and stop you is still kind of a win, in my opinion.
Yea sure it's a win for you but this project is about breaking the entire core itself, not trying to get a kill that you will be satyified with.

Now that I think about it, Counter fits perfectly on a Focus Sash set. Outside of just dealing with this core, Counter could be used to stop a vast array of would-be sweepers. Of course, that requires that you keep a Focus Sash intact until then, so...not as glamorous as it sounds. Focus Sash builds are lures that can be easily played around with knowledge, but can be great at securing surprise kills.
This falls apart even on paper as you are wasting a team slot for something so specific. Think about this: you could have gotten an actual offensive pivot that does it job well such as tapu koko. you could have used a proper defensive pivot to deal with the setup sweepers such as toxapex. you could have put weavile's wallbreaking potential to use.
 
Because there's no conventional weavile sets that is much different from the standard choice band and SD sets that make lop be unable to check weavile, so the natural effective play is clicking u-turn, and it's not at all a difficult choice unless there's like a tank chomp to punish it super hard, which this weavile is not being paired with. And even then, the pivot will still be punished by the mon switching in.


Yea sure it's a win for you but this project is about breaking the entire core itself, not trying to get a kill that you will be satyified with.


This falls apart even on paper as you are wasting a team slot for something so specific. Think about this: you could have gotten an actual offensive pivot that does it job well such as tapu koko. you could have used a proper defensive pivot to deal with the setup sweepers such as toxapex. you could have put weavile's wallbreaking potential to use.
I think the natural play against a Weavile is killing it with close combat rather than switching to a pokemon that Weavile guaranteed one-shots. Especially if the Weavile has scouted your move with Protect. Mega Lopunny's U-Turn does not OHKO Weavile, either, so even in a regular game, staying in and crippling the switch isn't a terrible move. Even if there were other pokemon to switch to that wouldn't be OHKO'd and outsped by Weavile, they'd have to fear a Knock Off removing their item.

I feel like if we start attributing player skill to these "break this core" segments, it quickly becomes almost impossible to guarantee. Take Mega Aerodactyl for example. MAero seems like a good bet, but if Mega Lopunny switches out to Zapdos on a Dual Wingbeat, there's a 51% chance that Mega Aerodactyl gets paralyzed by Static. A similar situation can happen if MAero tries to click Ice Fang vs Gliscor. If it gets paralyzed, it outright loses to MLoppuny's Fake Out + Close Combat. Hell, there's a chance it loses to Modest Zapdos's Volt Switch from full if it gets paralyzed prior. And what if the opponent decides to switch MLop into an Ice Fang/Stone Edge? More Fake Out chip damage, followed by more switches into Zapdos for greater paralysis chance. And if you try and predict the Zapdos switch in, MLoppuny can destroy you with Close Combat while still eating 2 Stone Edges. Assuming perfect play on the part of the player with 3 pokemon vs 1 quickly makes this an exercise in futility, IMHO.
 
I think the natural play against a Weavile is killing it with close combat rather than switching to a pokemon that Weavile guaranteed one-shots. Especially if the Weavile has scouted your move with Protect. Mega Lopunny's U-Turn does not OHKO Weavile, either, so even in a regular game, staying in and crippling the switch isn't a terrible move. Even if there were other pokemon to switch to that wouldn't be OHKO'd and outsped by Weavile, they'd have to fear a Knock Off removing their item.

I feel like if we start attributing player skill to these "break this core" segments, it quickly becomes almost impossible to guarantee. Take Mega Aerodactyl for example. MAero seems like a good bet, but if Mega Lopunny switches out to Zapdos on a Dual Wingbeat, there's a 51% chance that Mega Aerodactyl gets paralyzed by Static. A similar situation can happen if MAero tries to click Ice Fang vs Gliscor. If it gets paralyzed, it outright loses to MLoppuny's Fake Out + Close Combat. Hell, there's a chance it loses to Modest Zapdos's Volt Switch from full if it gets paralyzed prior. And what if the opponent decides to switch MLop into an Ice Fang/Stone Edge? More Fake Out chip damage, followed by more switches into Zapdos for greater paralysis chance. And if you try and predict the Zapdos switch in, MLoppuny can destroy you with Close Combat while still eating 2 Stone Edges. Assuming perfect play on the part of the player with 3 pokemon vs 1 quickly makes this an exercise in futility, IMHO.
If you click u-turn and weavile stays in, you DON'T go to landorus, you go to something like ferrothorn. In response to your second post, you would have to be a god in order to predict like that. We are talking about resonable predictions here.
 

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